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Post Labor Day Morning Briefing
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Post Labor Day Morning Briefing

by The MoleSeptember 3, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s been pretty quiet over the long weekend and I don’t see much additional context except for the fact that the E-Mini is still trading above its 100-day SMA. There’s a bit of compression on the 25-hour Bollinger and perhaps we’ll see more volatility later in the session.

The Dollar continues to observe its 25-hour SMA and unless we see a solid breach here (not just a quick scare-the-children stab lower) I expect it to push higher.

The inverse happening on the EUR/USD obviously although it’s starting to flatten out a little. Watch our for attempts to breach the 25-hour which make for good inflection points – if there are ST candle patterns (via CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30) then use them.

Here’s the volatility profile courtesy of the CrazyIvan.EURUSD.480 – as you can see it’s currently in Bear/Quiet mode and that usually makes for shitty trading. Which is the reason the 480 is currently filtering long and short trades. Now that’s something we do for automated trading systems as it keeps us out of sideways or low probability tape over the long term. But the downside of any type of volatility filters/measures is that they are inherently lagging. The benefit of trading discretionary is that you can often anticipate and catch the first big moves as volatility starts kicking in.

Silver is looking interesting on the ST panel as the 25-hour just breached the 100-hour SMA. I am going to try a very speculative long position here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it continues higher I’ll slowly build it up.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • newbfxtrader

    anyone took my setups?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    hehe – they don’t even take my setups 😉

  • Skynard

    Looks like Spoos hourly BL 48.5, right?

  • Dyellowflash

    Indeed that zero hourly divergence plays out to the upside somehow – at least for now…

  • DollarChaser

    silvers working out so far, golds 100hour seems to be getting in the way atm tho.

  • newbfxtrader

    lol 🙂

  • Skynard

    Last short pos, in SPY 158 Sept puts.

  • Dyellowflash

    Be careful pple – I think the Zero is probably Trend day material today… I just dont know U or D yet.

  • Skynard

    Nice signal today.

  • Skynard

    Nice AUD trade! Was long last Fri, one of the trades that I exited.

  • momac

    any idea as to what’s going on with zb?

  • Fearless

    Does it matter? All that matters is whether you’re in a winning trade, don’t you think?

  • newbfxtrader

    I took eur gbp short and a bunch of aussie longs.

  • momac

    ahh, ism and construction spending according to zero hedge

  • newbfxtrader

    you can funny mentals like taper pricing in. but technically you should have been short for a while.

  • Skynard

    Braodening pattern on the 5 min again.

  • Skynard

    Excellent!! Take profit yet? She’s going to tank, dollar going nuts:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Broadly speaking: FED lost control of (atleast) long term interest rates.
    Practically: TBT is a buy anytime today (on daily time frame), with 74-76 support, no significant resistance and first price target 86-88.

  • newbfxtrader

    will see in a few days. i cant trade microseconds like you!

  • Skynard

    Was refering to the market in general, who knows about AUD:)

  • Dyellowflash

    Ok… in addition to the zero’s technical readings, this now this also “feels” like a trend day as well – had a triple good fill of shorts from the day’s high! Come on babe 😉

  • Dyellowflash

    A break of YM 14830 probably goes to somewhere at 14770. Hope to TP thereabouts.

  • Skynard

    Think this move could be a W3 coming.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    short treasuries back in the game..wasn’t looking good for the past few days.
    Frodo continues the secret stairs.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31020770614

  • tradem4alpha

    I am also short from 1643…but my gut tells me that we will have some big down and up days in the coming 2 weeks with this Syria situation…reminds me of the debt ceiling situation from december last year…Bohner “possible solution” => market up big…Bohner “talks have slowed” => market down big

  • Skynard

    ST target 1618 4 hr BB, bounce then back down to the 1580 neckline. Shall see:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Still short. got weekly bearish engulfing on /es last week. saw no reason to cover shorts.

  • Ronebadger

    that’s been my ballpark as well

  • Skynard

    Damn dude, that was a 20+ pt overhaul. Lol, my largest stop on the /ES has been around 10 pts.

  • newbfxtrader

    yeah well you havent seen my losses on weekly setups!

  • Skynard

    Weekly set-ups, damn!

  • Skynard

    Yep, here we go again with 5 min broadening, YES!

  • Skynard

    /NG finally dumping, what a b**ch to trade.

  • Darkthirty

    Blasphemy!!

  • Skynard

    hehehe, considering the move from the high has only been 50 pts.:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    remember, it’s not always the horse out front.
    it’s the one you can make $$$ off of that counts.
    (pick another horse)

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Horse-racing-2.jpg

  • beentohardknocksU

    Do you think he finances the Republican party by trading in advance of his public announcements 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed YM at 14795-97.. Still holding a couple of trackers left on auto pilot mode. Got to call it a day as its 1am over at my place 🙂
    Note the divergence on the zl.

  • newbfxtrader

    u gonna get banned wave wanking…

  • Skynard

    Stops in, it is just amazing to watch. You are axactly right though, may not be:) She does not want anyone to be in profit before Thur.

  • Darkthirty

    Yup, shot,buried,dug up, sodomized,shot and buried again

  • Ronebadger

    I thought he meant WW3…dopey me

  • Pervergence

    Took that SI silver setup as a GC cue….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes – I think there is the danger of large gyrations before this thing resolves.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    China and Japan are already dumping paper now and what’s going on in Syria may just exacerbate the situation. I think we are looking at a very interesting fall/winter season.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly. Some people’s need to know is often counterproductive to trading successfully.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Also, sometimes such questions indicate a losing position 😉

  • momac

    wasn’t in the trade long or short, just noticed the big move