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Post Labor Day Orientation
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Post Labor Day Orientation

by The MoleSeptember 3, 2019

September has finally arrived and I couldn’t be happier. I’ve made no secret about summer being my least favorite time of the year, especially as I’m not a big fan of excessive heat mixed with humidity. Plus here in Valencia summer brings with it troves of selfie-snapping tourists clogging up our city as well as the beaches.

Since it’s by far the worst time to travel I usually hide out at home with the A/C cranked up until September, which brings much relief as most of the worker drones are called back to their respective labor camps in the icy North.

As a trader the arrival of fall usually also promises relief from the dreaded summer doldrums in the financial markets. Except that we’ve been seeing a lot of fireworks over the past few months which has had an impact on implied volatility and thus increasing prospect of downside risk.

One of the first things I usually on Friday evening or Monday morning is to check the expected range on the Friday expiration in the SPX option chain. As of right now the market is pricing in a 59 point move by the EOS Friday.

My seasonal SPY statistics favor a move to the downside – in fact week #36 appears to be the third most bearish of the entire year and the fourth most bearish is only two weeks away, interrupted by the second most bullish week of the year. Not the time of the year to hold a directional bias.

Especially given the HV range we’ve been stuck in over the past two months. Unless we decisively breach ES 2950 or ES 2820 we are not going anywhere fast.

The SPX:VIX ratio was pointing downward on Friday, which however wasn’t a huge surprise ahead of a long weekend, which always means additional risk.

What however has me worried a lot more on a medium to long term basis is the Implied Volatility Term Structure, a.k.a. the ratio between the VIX and the VXV:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    2929 is a fibonacci pivot. Now 9:12 from there 🙂
    have stop, will trade!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    FOXF ss on backtest to ~71 but it is stopping at the 200sma. Gaming looks crappy to LVS, WYNN – IMO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Et’ tu, HYG?

    Happy Month Begin. {face palm}

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Those are supposed to be good!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Only for Virgos with Uranus retrograde.
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    Can’t believe we have to deal with another Fricken Hurricane in the Carolinas. Even though it’s “only” forcasted to kiss the coast line, it’s following a similar path that Hurricane Matthew did in 2016 that dumped 15 Inches of rain on us. Last year Hurricane Florence dumped 21 Inches of rain in us. WTF!!!!!!! If Dorian changes it’s mind and we get a direct hit we are fucked. The Bahamas are already toast and it’s moving at a snails speed and any part of the southeast coast could get hit. I just wish this thing would do what it’s going to do and get it over with. We’ve been waiting for days for something that could be nothing or something that could really screw us over.

    In the meantime the price action earlier this morning played a couple of tricks on me before I caught a nice ride down. I’m probably done for the day because I’ve got to go outside and do some more Hurricane Prep including getting my Generator and Pump ready. Catch y’all later.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “this too shall pass”.
    ..unless you’re in Houston. boy did *they* get f*cked in ’17.

  • HD

    “I’ve never even heard of a cat 5” Unreal

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just go for the aqua-dam. I know you got the $$$.
    😉
    https://cdn0.wideopencountry.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/aqua-dam-793×526.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    10 yr close to all time low…..you can do it…..go 10 yr, go

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s inverse 20 yr cousin, TLT, is unstoppable.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIsK-hbhObk

  • ridingwaves

    Good luck out there BL…..Florida seems to be real lucky lately…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    …and that should be telling us something..

  • Mark Shinnick

    drv new local low…usually harbinger of equity re-stabilization.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    What’s a “local low”? Never heard that before.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 19.32, ES triangle 1 minute, and back in DRV 27.55

  • HD

    The coil, triangle, chart I shared last week has the lower TL at 2860

  • BKXtoZERO

    Fresh paint

  • HD

    2731 is a Fibonacci pivot

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Yes ! Posted possible 20.50 high today 20.49 Taking profits remaining long No cigar on going back in 401K’s
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I would post “Right Here Right Now” by Van Hagar but I don’t like Van Hagar. If the red digits keep piling up I will think of something….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://youtu.be/DxELf7F5xlY

    GG is neutral. fighting a cold.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG COTTON will cure the cold Load up BAL closes today above 35.52 that will be Bully Bully We will buy going into close
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I appreciate the fine market tip. However, this is month begin, Homey don’t play that game. Also, today (BA’AL) does not look like an impulsive move.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a pepto bismal run to the pink, and then surprise up, overnight.
    +3

  • Ronebadger

    Talking about Van H…I was as Alex Van H’s wedding in May 1983, in Beverly Hills. I wasn’t invited, I just happened to be there. Saw Eddie, Valerie and David Lee. Stood right next to David…he gave me a look, so I backed off a couple feet. (I have slides…it was 1983…no digital stuff to post)

  • Ronebadger

    …time will tell…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2RKWJD5ops
    I’ll take your word for it.

    110 tomorrow, finish off that ice cream, before it gets freezer burn.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Fills the gap Possible bounce off lower 60 min cloud closely matching a lower trend line. Also conversion line at 2887 low today 2891 Better pickings elsewhere
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Insiders are bailing out across the board like 2007 You know what followed
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Volume very weak on attempted bounce
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    PPT at work…….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Awesome….he gave you a look lol. I can see that now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    the double wire held. calling in sick. Laterz.

  • Ronebadger

    I had my Yashica 35mm SLR hanging from my neck…he thought I was some kind of photographer or something. BUT, the photographers were all waiting for Valerie and were stepping all over themselves to get close when Eddie came out. She told them to be cool and posed for a minute or so…all over…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Buying volume picking up last hour
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Buying some BAL into close
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Getting ready to short the Home Builders
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Cotton… Never saw this retail symbol before. Going long underwear and T shirts sounds like a solid plan

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Check out the h ss NSSC finishing h tomorrow.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I added to IYR short today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie… If recession hits people will crap their pants and need more underwear. If it doesn’t then the growth story leads to more underwear. Loading up on this tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG We have some buys on intermediate term indicators for SPX BUT waiting for final !ITTMSPX to go above it’s 10 ema. $NYSI went above it’s 10 sma We are not back long in our 401K’s yet Hi Yo Silver ! This Saturday archery opens and we are ready
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sell Rosh , buy Yom.

    tell Grizz to stock-up on broad tips. Just a matter of time before Wal*Mart stops selling those too.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4c/df/94/4cdf9447fe70a07b5efd5b1e690e5cc8.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    look at those sandals! How can she be taken seriously?
    She needs some knee pads!!

    http://www.montanaoutdoor.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Full-Draw-on-Knees-from-Behind-682×1024.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I won’t be hunting per se with my hand. Cyd has been practicing and can hit a paper plate often at 20 yards. We will be on Grizz’s heels as he wants us right with him as always We will have our hair in buns beneath a camo hat and camo clothes
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Real archers use recurves and long bows She has good form
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    in pink.

    those compound bows are starting to look like something made for NASA!
    https://www.sportsmansoutdoorsuperstore.com/prodimages/44588-DEFAULT-m.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG They are easy to use and are popular. GG It is a lot of fun.Just being outside trekking in the forest is exhilarating It’s amazing what you can see and come across. I know we will come across one or more bears We always do.We will have bear spray as we are not hunting bear.Grizz has not taken a bear in many years. Just elk deer and antelope
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Nice.

    but before you go, what do you call a one handed hunter?
    ……dinner.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I will have a backpack with lunch and water.If Cyd gets a deer or elk she has to field dress it.He made her do it last year with a deer. He helped her drag it out
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ugh, please. this is a family rated forum.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In MT it’s against the law to have a dog with you hunting. A dog can be in camp but no where else.Also illegal to have a spotter in an airplane.99.9% of hunters in MT abide by rules and regulations.Almost all hunters report infractions We have never seen anyone doing anything illegal
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I did not know that.

    That explains how Bigfoot gets around.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG That is definitely phony. The famous photo of Big Foot walking and looking back at the same time was phony. An animal does not do that.They stop then look then move lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    well, you keep hiking around in ‘Nature’, you’re gonna see the real thing.
    Hope it doesn’t mess you up mentally.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Do you really believe there is a Big Foot ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    A discussion for another time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8kHwJtoUF8

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Supposedly most so called sightings have been in Oregon and British Columbia.He better have a visa if he travels between OR and BC lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho