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Precious Metals Monday
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Precious Metals Monday

by The MoleApril 16, 2018

Precious metals have been coiling up like crazy over the past few months and although this is a tough sector to participate in at the current time  I’m now starting to look at possible entry opportunities. The current formation appears to be slowly inching its way toward a resolution toward the long side, although of course it could be nothing but another honey trap for the gold bugs.

So here’s my perspective: After a large gap that sucked in a bunch of eager beavers the invariable sell off that followed it should have discouraged a lot of participants. The current formation almost looks too good to be true which is partly why I’m taking it given the prior context.

My play is to be long here with a stop below GC 1341 although feel free to lower that if you want to play more conservative. Alternatively this setup works on MGC, YCG (your broker’s symbols may differ), or the the EFPs GLD or IAU.

Silver is looking a bit more precarious and the wild swings lately have not been for the fain of heart. Scary looking tape usually makes me reduce my position size in anticipation of quick snapbacks but also large outlier winners.

The hourly panel is looking supportive of a long position with a stop below the recent spike low near 16.42. This is a possible swing trader burn campaign with low odds and high pay off so keep your position sizes small.

As SI is a big contract I alternatively recommend QI or XSN for smaller account holders – the latter has little volume however so your fill may be crap. You can also resort to ETPs, e.g. SLV, DBS, USV, etc.

Quick update on the E-Mini campaign. My stop at break/even miraculously  survived the Friday shake out and thus far the tape seems to be pushing back in my favor, which is up. Nothing to do here as this is overdue to resolve higher or finally crash and burn.

Alright we have a ton of entries this morning, so let’s get to work! Bitcoin is a long for me after it may be done scaring the children. The current rising flag has decent odds to resolve higher given that the hourly BB is now pointing upward.

Plenty more below the fold, so if you’re not a sub then this is a great day to join:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ridingwaves

    not to sure about the push today, maybe tied to king dollar?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow – where is everyone?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not much of a push yet – too early to make a call about this session. Zero signal is looking good thus far.

  • BobbyLow

    I be here. 🙂

  • Brishort

    Here too!!

  • BobbyLow

    It’s just the market being the market. 🙂

    In the meantime, I took the remaining 1R Profit left on my Long Crude. Might reenter before the COB but want to see how price shakes out first.

    I also reentered my short in Wheat. Should have held over the weekend because it cost me 6 and 1/2 points for drawing first blood on Friday. I’ll flip to the long side in a heartbeat if price turns around with a little MOMO.

  • HD

    $SPX has gapped open each session this month. Holding anything ON is gambling. Over the weekend… check your sanity.

  • ridingwaves

    It’s kind of playing as I expected….WEAT 6.25 is 1/2 R L bid for me…edging in I hope correctly…..

  • Brishort

    All my very short term systems (less 10 minutes) are in sell mode on ES & NQ…

  • BobbyLow

    Totally agree with you on equities and this is why I try to stick with commodities. Little fuckery going on with Crude though. It looks like the Crude Market believes that Russia, Syria and Iran are going to behave going forward and it’s back to dealing with oversupply.

  • Yoda

    Here. It’s a beautiful day. The world keeps turning and my trades are in the money. 🙂

  • Brishort

    I have suffered from the fuckery so much recently on crude, I had to take the asset off my screen. None of my trending systems are doing anything right, even on the short term timespan, the fuckery is too intense!!

  • ridingwaves

    JPM had a missive about a spike coming in crude written over the weekend….every push down is getting bought right now….75 WTIC, its what the bankers want

  • ridingwaves

    has there been 3 up days in a row for the widow maker this year?

  • Ronebadger

    Present

  • Brishort

    With the help of the Zero, this is make it or break-it time. Message seems clear though…

  • Brishort

    All trailing stops on shorts triggered. but systems remain in sell on the retrace. WIll have to wait and see if it turns. Needs a bit higher before turning. If triggered, should be foundation of good rally.

    Right now still within Fibonacci retrace from this morning high of around 8AM on NQ futures, so impossible to tell if really going up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    At the Boston Marathon. those poor saps. running fools if you ask me.
    Muwahaha.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Will take the 5 min divergence as indication that currently should continue to be on the look-out for short term shorts. Highly speculative so the mileage is expected to vary…

  • BobbyLow

    I began carrying my last long crude position on April 3 and put on a hedge on Friday, April 6 just so I could carry it over that weekend. I took my hedge off on Monday April 9. It cost me a few dollars but the way price was screwing around it helped calmed the waters for me. Even though my trade made some decent money, it wasn’t easy.

    I usually only follow price and do very little thinking but at this moment, I can’t help but think crude prices are extremely susceptable to whipsaw right now.

  • HD

    Looks like sellers defending Globex high, until not

  • Yoda

    I am glad to see copper green today.

  • HD

    Sounds like you’re dialed in. Kudos. CL is one of the trickier ones for me. I used to think $0.50 was a good trade.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been to the Boston Marathon a few times (not as a runner :)) and usually went to the morning Red Sox Game with a few friends in freezing ass cold weather too. They cancelled today’s game though.

  • Brishort

    VIX looks like it’s thinking to commit suicide on its chart. Intense “going nowhere” zone everywhere right now. Zero neutral to confused. UVOL remains strong

    Potential market message on this morning action so far: doing a sideways correction since ES low of Friday. If morning gap holds, would be strong message that indeed will be going up. The more the sideways correction lasts in going nowhere, the more my less than 10 minutes trending system are preparing to turn to a buy signal. Once they get the trend right (typically 40% of time) they tend to run for a few hours and many dozens of NQ point. Right now expected to whiplash maybe a few more times before getting it right. (typically 10-15 NQ points when whiplashed).

    Mole long above may just have a chance for survival then!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Nice Vix view….indeed!

  • ridingwaves

    100 is at 15.66, right now its reading 16.66….. watch out for that devilish dude….
    INDU is trapped below falling 50sma that is capping rise…

  • Brishort

    VIX has a susceptible temper I guess, does not like us talking about him!
    it just stepped back from the ledge!

  • BKXtoZERO

    In TVIX 8.1, 1R getting boring…. make or break here. Keeping it tight again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m no expert. But *I do* try to add value to the forum.
    ;-D

  • Brishort

    OMG, modesty from a GOD, how could I one-up that!?! At least I am no longer an outsider to the Breakfast Club :p

  • Brishort

    Thinking out loud: CL on suicide watch or just another stupid gyration?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    demi-God. My paperwork for promotion hasn’t arrived yet.

  • ridingwaves

    just retesting the break out area, WTIC below 66.15 would make it more interesting…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WTIC…that reminds me. how is USO?

    peak hotness for now.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31903948197

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Brishort

    Officially a zig-zag day… 15 points zig zag up/down on ES now done roughly 9 times since opening.

    Said otherwise, more than 135 points travelled to go nowhere since the open.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long USLV 10.5 0.5R just now, giving it a try. I have been watching silver for a long time but it has been dead money so I have been awaiting break out. Thanks for metals post Mole!

  • Brishort

    Zero 5mn trying to get smart or showing the way…. I hate zig zag, but Zero is not flat so probably worth watching closely what is it trying to tell us?

  • BKXtoZERO

    REPENT! the end is near….. find a church. (LOL)

  • ridingwaves

    your daily fed musing….to keep you smiling

    UPDATED Fed’s Kaplan says firms lack pricing power

    maybe if only a handful of wealthy people didn’t own everything would you have real demand, wealthy folks can’t buy for millions more indebted…what low rates not working?

    ohh thanks congress critters, presidents, treasury and fed officials for the nice gift…..see my middle finger pigmen…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/massive-debt-massive-interest-payments

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes, very tight range. IF it does fall apart, high pay off. Intra-day shots cost me nothing to find out. Nice small range. They have rolled off the plate quite a few times recently. I am salivating for one to hit the floor!

  • Brishort

    Probably that it is going to die flattening-out at VWAP!

  • HD

    Tuesday: housing starts, building permits, and industrial production. Wednesday: beige book. Thursday: jobless claims, Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration.

  • HD

    Well, they killed all the puts for OPEX. Mission Accomplished. Turn around Tuesday on deck

  • Brishort

    And Mole stat of this week being typically bullish….

  • BKXtoZERO

    hard working dude….. thanks for your many charts

  • Darkthirty

    Sunday’s open left a mark……..

  • Darkthirty

    E overthrow + symmetry + 618 retrace points to 2705 or so……..

  • HD

    A little BOA history. They suck. We bailed them out for 45B + 118B guaranteed. That same year they paid 3.6B in bonuses, defrauded schools and hospitals. Got a slap on the wrist- 138M and now make 7B per quarter in profit…. USA I say move your money. Credit unions.

  • Julie

    10:00 break SPX the gap up but the Banks NO . BAC strong support 29.47 which so far LOD. Still short 1/2 position held over weekend.30.27 stop
    JULIE

  • HD

    interesting. I have 7 waves quantified, gaps and no follow thru. Agree corrective.

  • Julie

    Hi HD my take too posted previously in a reply to you i.e. corrective
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Caveat…Gaps on SPX at 2700-2750-2850

  • HD

    Unfortunately it can correct all the way to 2873. Not the best time to be counting waves.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XLE,
    first exit 72.25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    HD I only look for impulsive and corrective patterns not necessarily counting waves. Have no idea if it is a wave 4 or 2 or even a 3. Trend lines and resistance and support levels combined with exp fib moving averages are paramount to me
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    that’s cool. You’ll see a lot of “0’s” on my counts. I just try to track 1 wave at a time. ie. This chop is all 1 wave, same wave IMO.

  • Julie

    SPX as stated last week much resistance above. Trading within the 55 ema and confluence of the 5 and 21 ema’s. A break below the 5 and 21 ema’s will also break below a minor uptrend line. SPX now overbought. As stated previously SPY volume does not corroborate the advance from beginning of April. The inverted H & S pattern previously pointed out may fail . We all know what happens when an obvious pattern fails. I am taking some heat again stating I believe that the larger picture is a triangle from end of January JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd61b19571de1f512d3b2254f39630f5c9c4f823291cd26d2fba5fa7be892a1d.png

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I have a short order in @ 2685

  • Julie

    APC Looking for a false breakout of the ascending triangle. A bearish close below the daily 5 ema will coincide with a break of support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9830a7411feca417b271d4be6c5008b2cd128b58a1f18efe58e68001f4251c0.png

  • Richard Adler

    I’m looking to lay a short on ES here. Weak move up, Zero not confirming

  • Julie

    OPEX usually has a bullish bias
    JULIE

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    My short was just filled, but the possibility of a trend day is still there. I’m watching this close.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m long, added to earlier long.

  • Richard Adler

    OPEX?

  • Julie
  • Mark Shinnick

    Is that chart still useful for today? …was that for Friday?

  • Julie

    Yup mark
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I guess because the arc is above the market?

  • Julie

    Yes RA this is OPEX week
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The arc’s above price, can act as ceilings.
    If you get a pause in price against an arc,
    it’s a clue.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What does one do when charts have conflicting clues?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Declining participating slope on the Zero for this move up. Mole you could draw a declining line there.

  • Brishort

    I agree, but Mole doesn’t like to draw on 5 minutes, he prefers on the 60. The line is much more subtle there. Still, the 60 minutes is shaping up like a perfect wedge instead of a breakup/ out formation. However wedges are notably unreliable in my book. Still the fat lady has not sung anything useful yet!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….except this upward drift thing like the knife slo-insertion. There is always a risk with derivative technicals.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I don’t see how this could be anything but a text book divergence…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    hmm, i’ve always seen the draw on the 5 min side of the Zero screen, to indicate the action for the day. Never seen one on the 60 m side. In any case, looks like a short might be in order

  • Julie

    Mark let’s go with a preponderance. SPX going up into (1) a fib arc (2) gap resistance (3) 55 ema or 50 sma (preference) (4) overbought (5) SPY declining volume on advance from beginning of April IMO caution is advised
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    That’s the trouble with charts that have lots of stuff on them. Of course individual lenses best fit the prescription of the maker. But for everyone else, I think you would have to weed out the less significant indicators. But that begs the question of why have them in the first place.

    For me, the less stuff the better. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Beautiful.

  • Mark Shinnick

    There we have the tested systems approach.

  • Richard Adler

    Thanks Julie

  • Julie

    SPX Another chart the gap window coincides with the Ichi Cloud lower boundary along with the 55 ema or 50 sma. Watching this jasper CLOSE ! Gonna be fun ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf2a32082f5419f1e8e8a1c785f551fbea58548356f91b1afff77d0d943a4080.png

  • ridingwaves

    ole bucky could turn up here to help bears but bulls have the earnings season love going now….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Love can be so blind. 🙂

  • Julie

    Lets take SPX a little further. Now the upper cloud boundary matches a down trend line and a fib retracement. There you go guys targets along with the SPX charts posted below Remem https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33c1e30f8ae09b061445c9dbcc6598fa45dd9bed364d7a56e41aa53c4c75ecf9.png ber SPX now overbought and going up into a fib arc and it’s 50 sma and 55 ema in a post below JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I’m back – seems like traffic picked up here a little!

  • Mark Shinnick

    A Remarkable pathos there man.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did anyone catch any of today’s entries?

  • Julie

    GG If it goes up to the upper down trend line and upper cloud boundary and fails my triangle thesis Dead On Bro !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you diss’ing me man?..
    {confused}

  • Mark Shinnick

    “to the Moon Alice” is the HY delusion …when this just isn’t going to end well.

  • Julie

    BAC covered remaining 1/2 short position as it appears to close above it’s daily 5 ema. Will re enter short with a bearish close below the lower channel trend line and today’s low JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4eacf2ca5f5ed7a69f268938957a536caccc2db78d5705901e79beb27b91b687.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    entered some USLV. I have been watching that for 2 years! will try it…. Hi Ho Silver…..

  • HD

    Impressive! trade of the day if you ask me. Kudos

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Thanks, but it ain’t over yet! We’ll see how this plays out. But the entry was all I could ask for…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    crowded trade

  • Julie

    GG Eyeballing APC for a breakout failure per APC chart below
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Price is still boss no matter what’s going on in the world. Put on a nervous short of Crude via OILD with a fairly tight stop not withstanding gaps.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gawd that sounds exhausting…why? better reward?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I know a Billionaire who would disagree. But until I get my own PhD, yeah. Word.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    @molecool:disqus – What’s your take on the divergence the zero is painting right now?

  • Lugman

    Got the gold and bitcoin. Also long crude from last week.

  • BobbyLow

    So price is not boss? Price is the only truth in this business.

    With all due respect to your “Billionaire” friend, this “Thousandaire” has found that waiting for political and or other types of threats to come off the front burner has NEVER worked in my favor. Screwing around and or betting on a certain outcome just fucks up my MOJO and gets me out of sync. Oh and by the way, none of the Billionaires that I’ve ever listened to over the past 20 years have ever made me a dime.

    BTW, if I get stopped out, I get stopped out. It’s just another trade and what’s good about it is that it was generated by my own system win or lose.

  • Julie

    BL USO 13.38 is a support . 13.28 is a stronger support. Going to wait for the break below and play (short) APC for pin action (breakout failure) JULIE

  • HD

    interested in the SI, seeing a lot of overhead R though. Care to elaborate on why you like it here? It’s cheap with a $0.20 stop but the entries at lower part of pattern seem high probability. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29ddcef371e590bed7653a33712594f9db5e592374df39a694af8cafb1c4d829.png

  • HD
  • Julie
  • Ronebadger

    I never liked that MACD (bottoms) divergence either…

  • HD

    good grief! 13:14

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Any audiophiles here? I got half correct with my MBP and an old pair of Sennheiser headphones:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/therecord/2015/06/02/411473508/how-well-can-you-hear-audio-quality

    Given the equipment I had a hard time however differentiating 320kb and lossless. I never picked the 128kb clip so I think my hearing is still up to snuff despite decades of heavy metal exposure 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A new face – welcome!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot at the close:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e56b3e196709731cde3d2b7f4b52ff65b893ab214ffbe6e1c720a4b4894c080.png

    Despite the declining signal a pretty typical slow upward drift session.

  • HD

    5 out of 6 thru Klipsch PC speakers – would have gotten 6 right if it was heavy metal though 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You bastard!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually had a pair of those and prefer them to the Bose system I bought here in Spain. Compact and excellent sound. Bose is overrated.

    Of course could have been my ears.

    Anyone else?

  • HD

    Klipsch are really bright, pick up the highs so I cheated basically.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    $NFLX just exploded higher to $330 post earnings.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I got half right with my Samsung ear bud headphones, they probably suck compared to the higher end brands. Being a part time DJ, I can tell you that wav files (lossless) sound better than 320 kbps mp3’s when played on big sound systems. The difference is in the impact of the bass and treble to the audience.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I believe that. However most of the time I use headphones and even on my old Sennheisers HD280 Pro I didn’t hear much of a difference between 320k and HiFi. Maybe I should get a better pair… although the Sennheisers are pretty cheap they are still highly rated. Tested them the other day and could hear all the way down to 8hz which is supposed to be outside of human hearing. Unfortunately my treble perception is fucked up – cuts out at 14,4khz 🙁

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go FANG.

  • Ronebadger

    Still using my 40 year old Klipsch Cornwalls. 18″ woofer, horn midrange and tweeters https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b269439c4ff11d723a5712f377383afa260486e5971bb1ed1300e1b9ea7ae5d.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m a 70’s and 80’s EPI 400, 200, and 100 guy. Their twitters are sealed airspring; very punchy in themselves. These all really suck up the watts.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c20e8f72c3bd27ac386e45e767e36386f207ad8fe81e2ab89b32b5302627de9b.jpg

  • Julie

    Possibly buy M tomorrow. RSI down to approx. 50. Stochs 5,3,3 oversold . Down to 55 ema and lower trend line with a MACD centerline test. Must have a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema Target 31. A girl must have Macy’s and Nordstroms and Saks 5th Ave and Coach and ……. JULIE
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb8c23372a13327525258cdb4fca776c0e198f5a55a0ae729a162e277101224e.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not enough touch points IMO – wait for a spike low and a retest.