Quick And Dirty Weekly Forecast

I’m working on a little project today, so I have only limited time to throw out charts for you guys to sink your teeth into. However, what I dug up are some pretty sweet puppies, which I think you’ll enjoy. But let’s get in the mood first:

Alright, let’s kick some market ass 😉

We are thinking long term here. This is my radioactive fusion powered 5-day MA Copper/SPX chart. The MA is on the Copper futures and what we are looking for are long term divergences. Yes, long term – the short term is way too noisy for me to attach any interpretations. Quite salient is the ‘mother of all bullish divergences’ in March of 2009. Wish I would have seen this one back then as it would have helped in assessing the timing of the finale of the trend.

But wait – there is more. Let’s project forward a little and consider what ‘may’ happen if we get something that may look like the onset of Primary wave {3}. After the first major drop we would a see snap back into Intermediate (2) – which should not be confirmed by the copper futures. Remember – we are looking for divergences in the scope of Primary or at least Intermediate degree moves. Anyway, it’s a good theory – for now – let’s keep an eye out and put it into context along with some of the other charts I’m peddling here.

That’s this week’s shock and awe chart – I’m shocked that the CPCE’s 10-day SMA did not budge after Friday’s drop. My take – the bulls see this as nothing but yet another dip buying opportunity. Well – we shall see shortly.

During Friday’s session got dangerously close to busting outside the upper border of the 2.0 BB on Mr. VIX. Fortunately we did close inside – meaning no buy signal (yet). Doesn’t mean we won’t get one though – IMNSHO we might see a repeat of what happened late January.

I’m no P&F pro but that upper trendline I pointed out last week seems to have served as resistance – thus far. If we get a drop to 1,180 on the S&P 500 cash index this chart would show a first circle as a possible beginning of a downtrend. Not sure if that is a ‘confirmation’ of a reversal but it does count and becomes part of the chart, so let’s just go with that unless we hear otherwise from a P&F pro. I have highlighted the 1,180 mark on my wave count below as well:

You might want to open this one in a separate window/tab by clicking on it – it’s got quite a lot of detail. I won’t repeat all my comments here but suffice to say that I have a feeling that things are slowly shifting back into focus now. The retracements all line up quite nicely and we might just have ourselves a map here.

Soylent Blue means that we are either done with Minute {iv} or will be by around 1,180 – that P&F reversal point I highlighted above. I postulate that we may bounce a bit before that and keep it off the P&F chart – but that’s just a theory. If we keep dropping through that point Soylent Green becomes a lot more realistic. The target for Green is the 1,145 cluster as we are near a respectable fib lines, i.e. 38.2% on the way down and 100% of {i} on the way up. That’s right – I’m the tamer of ferocious fib lines – Siegfried & Roy have nothing on me 😉

Some other comments on the chart – I think it’s a decent map – keep it handy as next week unfolds.

Cheers!

Mole