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NOT A Quiet Day
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NOT A Quiet Day

by The MoleDecember 4, 2018

As you probably have heard by now all cash markets are going to be closed tomorrow, Wednesday December 5th,Β in observance of a national day of mourning for late President George H. W. Bush. So I don’t expect much in terms of participation today and since most of my campaign’s trails were touched yesterday I shall remain in cash, enjoy a well deserved day off, and then return in full force on Thursday.

Rejection at the double top neckline, very interesting and if Jerome ‘Kryptonite’ Powell decides to live up to his reputation tomorrow then the bears may yet have a sliver of a chance to drive equities further down.

Which incidentally would suit them very well as next week historically is considered the 2nd most bearish of the year. So if it is destined to happen then next week may be conducive to exploiting any sort of market confusion or misinterpretation by fickle equity traders.

So far it’s been a pretty terrible ‘Santa Rally’ to boot and based on what I’m seeing on the daily we may be looking at a very ugly January unless the bulls finally manage to get out of the gate. One can hope… but I’m catching myself writing this way too often in recent times.

My Dollar also got snagged, fortunately at break/even. Very interesting break/down pattern here and if you look at the daily panel it does look a bit worrisome as we just blew an extremely juicy short squeeze opportunity. There may be hell to pay if this doesn’t recover soon, and by that I mean at least a revisit of 95.27.

Crude is a possible setup if it drops to 53 today or tomorrow. My ISL would be < 51.50 but feel free to be more conservative as she’s a fast mover.

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UPDATE 1:37pm EST: I had an inkling I may be eating my words on that one later in the session.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    Powell speech postponed also for Bush funeral

  • Ladywandering

    Liking your set ups. Keeping things small and manageable for the foreseeable future.

  • ridingwaves

    December gold contract is the most active in year…..
    the exchange bank moves in first 4 days has been quite busy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    bought some protection…TBT 38.08, even cheaper than bid yesterday…love it….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did I see TLT correctly? quite the move.

  • ridingwaves

    yes….maybe Pimco went all in πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    TBT? yeah, maybe wait a few more nickels,
    and then some for a tail.
    πŸ˜‰
    [my weekly lens]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20995543264

  • ridingwaves

    close enough, I feel lucky as bid yesterday was higher….I put 3 extra years on your envelope, ohhh the carnage…..

    the blue envelope line if breached means good run ahead…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Small range on indexes, and an oddball tomorrow.
    All exchanges closed, but Powell and Draghi still giving their speeches but from what I can see Powell testimony still occurring on the 5th while all markets closed….?!?l?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    come on Bri, don’t be an airhead.

    “Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress postponed”

  • Brishort
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking of playing hooky tomorrow.
    Sounds like the whole US of A is taking a break, why shouldn’t I?

    link:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell/fed-chairman-powells-testimony-to-congress-postponed-idUSKBN1O21S8

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Like I have been saying SPX not going up without the Banks ($BKX) Must watch the Banks Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b05dcc31dcf5494600aad1243f68118a46b0ec5d951cbb54ad30440f86cb0ce.png

  • Brishort

    Futures closing at 9h30 AM EST tomorrow, reopening at midnight.

    “Trading hours for CME Group U.S.-based equity products on Dec. 5 will include an abbreviated session, closing after overnight trading at 8:30 a.m. Central Time and reopening at their regularly scheduled times for a trade date of Dec. 6. Interest rate products will close at their regular times on Dec. 4 and will not reopen until their regularly scheduled times for the trade date of Dec. 6”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    typically, I’d say watch the weakest.
    which I believe is Dutch bank (yeah F’ the spelling)
    but then some central Banker will open his mouth and saying ‘believe me you’.

    Freaking carnival, or at least that’s my attitude right now.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Brishort

    Quite sustained selling…

    (and yes green is down volume on my charts, made a mistake on colors once, never changed it. Kind of liking it now like that. )

  • Brishort
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG DB is the most important Bank to watch as DB has the highest derivative exposure of all banks
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    careful, you’re heading for the air-chuck award.
    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51gCiTGXWCL._SY355_.jpg
    LOL.

  • Brishort

    ROFL!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so let’s play the paper news game.

    D*-Bank, says “oooops” toxic debt.
    Powell, says – sorry can’t raise rates too much, we are tied at the hip to Europe.

    and then?..

  • Brishort
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Rats jumping off a sinking ship ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • HD

    SPX lost the EOM rally TL, if you were using to keep objective. -(34) from this weeks open. Still seeing opportunity to play this market either way. The money is the same.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve seen this before, someone let me off.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkiaJxa0UCg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD SPX losing 2772 is very important technically
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    ES and DJI still have open gaps

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There was a story of a young married man that worked for White Star Lines who was scheduled to be on the Titanic. He got into an argument with his wife got drunk the night before and was too hung over to make the ship ! Too Much !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    too drunk? nice cover story.
    probably fell asleep in the hooker’s/girlfriends soft bed.
    but hey, whatever works.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long crude 52.8 via UTW at 15 even, tight stop

  • bankwalker

    almost lookin’ like a stop run there …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW SPX goes below 2766.47 not good
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Do you have a target ?
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Could we get the reading value in in 1000th of point please? :p

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how about a channel? I hear they are all the rage.

    off to a meeting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f9ac61befb59151ab694f0ec67c7a232f042d5e8060454c96ec1278f628cffd.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    middle bollinger om 6 month chart is 55, but this is probably day only unless it closes strong. I mostly play intraday and keep things tight.

  • Sp00nman

    Bears look like they’re getting a little tired today. I’m thinking we get a bounce soon. I have the same channels GG.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort Clarification A bearish 60 min candle closing below 2766.47 which is the baseline (21) on my 60 min Cloud
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    FYI, Middle Bollinger is just the MA.

  • randomuser6789

    SPX down 1%, VIX up 1.7%. Usually the VIX is up 5% or 10% on such a move. What is going on?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    VIX 16 – 17 has been the floor for the last two bear markets
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    VIX is finding life very quickly. See Julie’s message below. Channel may get invalidated quickly

  • Sp00nman

    Clearly that was wrong..

  • Sp00nman

    Sure did.. Bears came out w/ the claws. 20 handles straight down.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Falling VIX yesterday is sign of complacency returning to markets,

  • HD

    -30+ now from TL. Below 2750 too. since we have now quantified the wave and traded previous 4th it’d be a good time to have the daily let’s bash EW rant…. πŸ™‚

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    That makes bigger down move more likely…market complacent

  • Brishort

    LOL!!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    For the EW’ers could be start of a wave 3 down – but not necessarily THE BEAR market..can still be corrective.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b7d54c3eaa458006d6c3d6035f8f672ced526ce49984563e22755c5773740c0.png

  • Brishort

    Bucky pushing very hard towards its trendline. Right now at resistance
    There is a typical inverse correlation USD strengths vs equity markets.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0fd6b6bed5085423c08ab1eec9e6ecff5e9909c2724276198789fe8aec583e88.png vs markets.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Yesterday a gap up and closed below it’s open. Today also a gap up and may close below it’s open. GLD going up into 117 resistance overbought Going to wait for a pullback to buy GLD bullish daily chart
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, its established for the time being into a higher base that itself came from a September base that was obviously too low.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Here is what I was looking at on crude, some RSI divergence, then a higher low which was my entry, now so far holding the next higher low….. pretty basic. works or it doesn’t https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29bf8bfb75332d8095accc31d8bf3bc2691c79f26085a3048815bb9ae48f5e14.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK As long as USO (what I watch) stays above it’s daily 5 ema on a closing basis I may nibble today per previous posts and charts on threads.i.e. channel and resistance now support
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Need to be careful with any too bearish view.
    The first real scenario to rule out is the market trying to form a bottom from previous lows.

    That is the first scenario that should be in mind. The market trying to form a sustainable bottom from which to rally for year end.

    See red line, even going back close to it does not a bear market make.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6cb90b62def63e5e947d5a02cd902a0b2e733078b59baa9b30e6157f102e4e29.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was also just kind of expecting the bulls to get moving on stocks and they just failed… figured crude was a safer way to go long. TVIX would have been the play today, sheez

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys last night previous thread I posted levels to watch on a decline 2723 2715 – 2717 and 2687
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes..that’s right..
    keep an eye on DAX and FTSE …
    still can be a test of the lows for the US..
    Then see what happens there (if it gets there)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m shocked. this is unlike you Mark.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Or one could just shout..

    T i m b e rrrrrrrrrr..
    πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Went friggin’ rogue Predator yesterday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I feel so much better now.

    ‘SPX gas’ ….who knew??

    https://media.giphy.com/media/EiCQzmzE5HLaw/giphy.gif

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I make this sound around Mrs. Gerb…she FREAKS out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SGJDrVJzMI

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I love it catracho .. I added to my short probe yesterday at the close. I posted my thoughts and expectations on previous threads. Julie always goes in with a probe.Husband taught me that as then you watch more closely i.e. mind in the game. With a probe if you are wrong then loss is very very small
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the 10 yr is causing some margin calls…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I know what that is .. fencing pliers Can’t fool a Montana girl ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I thought it was Grizz’s toenail clippers.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Yesterday on the opening gap up that was sold into the first decline was a leading diagonal that I pointed out. Many people say that leading diagonals are rare and uncommon . Leading diagonals occur more frequently than people are led to believe . They even occur on daily charts so the ‘Heck” with the non believers
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Difference between Europe and the US
    France to announce delay on fuel tax hike after violent riots: reports
    California voters vote themselves a .35c fuel tax hike…….

    maybe the last conservatives in the state should riot, seems all the liberals don’t drive thus the vote outcome…..though I see a lot of Clinton, Bernie and Obama stickers still on bumpers ahead of me?

  • maxcherry

    2007 was a leading diagonal, it’s the expanding leading diagonal that is of question i dont recall seeing one that worked.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63d3f9f5a059f96b7e0c84c46da0a0e62cff60a7eeab12766dd28aafcb3b8d48.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m just waiting for them to self terminate. It’s good for the Earth ya’know?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wjXpTDuHiE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX lowering stop 2760
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was a non believer…. You are on Julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max Your put ! Nice !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Imo this hit has made room for one more β€œuptrend” or wave. So we take our 50 points from TL noted yesterday and look for a low to buy >2700. Maybe it’s just HWB…. <2700 is a different deal.

  • HD

    Nailed the whole shebang via EW again!!

    Kudos

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    thanks just got out , that’s the thing about options , take the profit

  • maxcherry

    had you got out of the market the last two times the yield curve first inverted you would have missed 25%+ on the upside

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51b1fadd12839686b02fb672b808c288787d4836712bfb2b3ad56982e4970dc6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Quick and The Dead.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Like I said yesterday Nice chart GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Are you looking at my ass? Is this innuendo?
    I’m triggered.

    Off to Lunch.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX It takes time for the inverted yield curve to play out. I think it was John Murphy on stockcharts stating that it can take even as long as 6 months to a year
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    its a warning sign, much like the adv/dec divergence which we dont have now, the two above did

  • ridingwaves

    and how does John believe it plays out?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW ..Then a recession
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    could be correct, could be wrong, think its more likely in 2020…..
    today is all about margin calls on the 10 yr, the bond vigilantes are probing both sides…and just kicked the short side to the curb….

  • Brishort

    VIX at the high of the day.

    I was running low on targets for this move, hence my precious P&F to the rescue. NDX between 6650 and 6700 would preserve the previous bottoms intact.

    About 3% lower from here with a 6666 max downmove target https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/021e91675f2c4641feceee1da9d76c6a3c0d55162f6c0c8e99d12c03818c7725.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW the 10 year yield is interesting i.e. An analyst with a proven track record named David ? states that it is not the actual percentage but the rate rise from the low. He stated that 2 percentage points off the low is the watchdog. The low was approx 1.4 so add 2 and 3.4 Sure enough the 10 year is almost at that level
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    SPX is less obvious reading, but 2650 would have to be protected at all cost to have a P&F quadruple bottom.

    This would further align with the numbers circulated by Julie.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64d0a864920c6c4a60c4555f4af0811b8d07f4c2758a8a8f2d60beec6eb71859.png

  • ridingwaves

    think about how many people were shorting the 10 yr with rates expected to rise again this month….either they caught a whiff of no 1/4 pt hike this month or are just setting up Thursdays auctions to drive buyers in….I think they are going to have a hard time selling at these levels…..Thursday should be a directional mind f$%K

  • HD

    Hi Brishort. Do you trade volatility?

  • Brishort

    No not trading it.Clearly in my toolbox as a technical indicator among the top 5 I look at. But not trading the etfs or futures. I do not like the liquidity of it. Major extremely liquid large indexes or futures contracts are my sole playground.

  • Brishort

    I typically do not like to look at ZH during the day, but this one is clearly interesting.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-04/here-what-triggered-todays-sudden-stock-liquidation

    “More importantly, McElligott identifies the specific deleveraging “trigger” behind the S&P waterfall liquidation, which was due to a massive CTA selling order, which was unleashed once deleveraging stops were hit in the S&P. Specifically, the SPX model was triggered to sell down at 2,763 with $32.8B notional for sale, reducing CTAs from “+100% Max Long” down to “+65% Long.”

    It could get even messier if the S&P drops another 20 or so points, as the next sell point just under 2,711, where -$32.4B additional notional for sale, with β€œMax Short” level now lower at 2574, at which point the market would be flooded with -$122B notional in selling volume.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD My husband traded it with the ADX not sure how he did it … Only he can explain it
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The bannable offenses are adding up … EW now Zero Hedge ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • HD

    Ok. Poor mans vixen triggered yesterday. Posted here in RT. +25% from then. FWIW

    It’s about 70% accurate set up. If you have to have the stats πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew today?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Quiet day πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I knew I would eat my words on that one.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I may just have to leave for a week or so until the wave counting ceases.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I think my husband used ADX with a setting of 10
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They did post P&F charts however, so that’s a plus!

  • Brishort

    I know…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    just a way to sit on hands

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Hope you are feeling better per your post yesterday.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Must be VERY poor because VIXEN only goes short IV πŸ˜‰

  • Brishort

    They is a single person!!!

  • TimeToPanic

    Heh, 250 NQ candles in the green, can’t complain chief.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing great Chief Thanks always for your post and forum. Great job Chief
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Unable to be a regular at my desk, but today I could!
    Markets are more interesting with Vix >20 and it just happened….

  • ridingwaves

    getting beat up on my TBT but might just have to add here…..pretty intense weekly candle….today is all about bond market reaction or by chance the sterling and brexit votes today…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Post appropriately renamed πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well done! I take it no wave counting was involved (don’t answer that)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah I’m pretty good, thanks darling. How’s the weather up in the NW freezer?

  • HD

    Lol. That’s Too bad.

  • Darkthirty

    what is lock limit on ES?

  • Brishort

    Honestly, there is no telling where this downward momentum will find a bid.
    Zero being at -2.6 clearly shows there is real selling occurring.

    The ZH 2711 potential trigger just gave way. Let’s see how this evolves now…

  • HD

    Ok round numbers on deck.

  • Jason13

    Welcome to the end of the world

  • Brishort

    Every single Bollinger band, whatever the time is embedded for now.
    Not sure round numbers can counteract any.

    Julie’s previously published targets and the P&F remain the only real support points I could find for now.

  • HD

    7%?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX The Banks A Chart says a 1,000 words. Now important I stated https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c16d8bc9a00c0fd8e4f19fe83054ba66f79c08f48047f2b6c960130e96cc349f.png in a post yesterday that the rally from 2631 could be over tJULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Going to Zero tonight Chief ! love it ! keeps the Californians away !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    That’s it, just jinxed it! Time to check Time magazine cover…

  • HD

    Did the quants pick up on the intraday sell program or still crunching the numbers?

    Big bounce from the roundy already πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort broken below 2 already 2705 is another one to watch
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was wondering!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I only read Playboy for the articles.
    yeah Bri, tell us another story.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Brishort

    Round numbers may just work for now and Zero reacting as well.
    6800 had to not be touched on NDX and it bounced just above.
    Currently on P&F support.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0108e48791645823f889aa7987227f09f281dc65fc8d5f655a8518587fed6f00.png

    Little bounce in progress and Zero showing 5 min divergence. Due to velocity of movement, impossible to infer market behavior. We need more time and candles to know if this can hold.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BAck from lunch.
    dang nab it.

  • ridingwaves

    funny, I’ll be in Boise tonight….don’t underestimate the folks who put Montana back on the map…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX moving stop down to 2740 from 2760
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    The GG technical lunch indicator is growing its sats!!!
    GG lunch = Mole on a plane! :p

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mole moves the Market more.
    I mostly just shake all of Alaska.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Country girl. Can you fix a truck?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vtf2gFlBZj4

  • HD

    Cease fire on tariff= 40 handle gap up! β€œI’m a tariff man!” 89 handle intraday hit.

    Just ignore the news. OR pay extra close attention. Your choice.

  • ridingwaves

    this is all about bonds….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Bri- rounds are solid set ups. Lock in 20

  • Sp00nman

    Holy moly.. I stepped away about 2 hrs ago and we poked into that “gap” from the FOMC day. Wow..

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves 6 days ago
    still a lot of hot money in the system, no defcon 5…..year end rally all depends on the 6th and 7th of December, long term auctions up the ying yang, and no wall money, no federal budget signing on 7th per Trump

    been worried about these longer term auctions for a bit…..Wednesday funeral threw huge kink in plans by looks of todays action

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A close today below 2723.12 (Yup don’t forget the 0.12) will be very bearish LOL!
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    5% – half way there

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    calm down,
    it’s Tuesday. can we settle for a range trade?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Jason What A day !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX No positive divergence MACD 8,13,5 on 10 min chart yet ! WOW ! Guys I have a dentist appointment My stop is in at 2740 to be safe
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hope you get filled.

    (comic genius. comic)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 2687 (target posted previously) on the 60 min will be an impulse down on the 60 min and oversold 60 min both STOCHS 13,1 and 5,1 MACD Also 60 min MACD 8,13,5 below center line
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Palladium just broke record high…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Like I said that silly ass tariff crap with the Chinese was already priced in
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    No, that short entry was just an old-fashioned sell the news trade, to me it seemed obvious it was ‘no news’ and an exhaustion gap, plus you may have seen some charts I shared over the weekend, so fib levels and channels were hit on Monday. I’m not a waver, barely understand it all (I hate complex rules), but it does sometimes add an edge to a bigger picture, just a tiny edge.

    Thanks for sharing the seasonality chart today, that will help me to sit tight with these shorts til at least the end of next week. Cheers.

  • ridingwaves

    that has a lot of green volume candles down there, I think the break out is going to push it higher…..

  • ridingwaves

    this has nothing to do with tariffs….
    everything to do with bonds….they are taking bankers positioned short to woodshed……
    bond vigilantes time for a comeback…..its been 10 years, they are friggin hungry

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how about a 1.236 Fibonacci extension

    $1100 * 1.236 = $1360.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ten? I thought it was 30!

  • ridingwaves

    Mnuchin: markets in ‘wait and see’ mode about China trade deal

    too funny, deflection is now in play…..the treasury chief is worried about treasuries not the market….

    something not good is happening in the bond market…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Can’t wait to buy a pullback to 115.99 or 115.40
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG close enough to 1.272
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Are we the only riders onboard again Julie? Fun ride so far eh?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP It’s a good one ! Love the roller coaster down !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Is it because you are getting a golden tooth?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I may have to just start following Julie here………

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort A golden crown just like what kings wear on their head LOL! On my way out Have A Great Rest of Day Brishort
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    actually working at work… busy on other fronts too…. MKTs not playing out as I expected and I am mentally away unfortunately. On the plus side, not doing anything wrong either.

  • Sp00nman

    RUT is looking pretty darn bearish and is the weakest. I’m starting to think the grinch may have been wearing a santa suit and fooled a few people. The “gap” from the fomc day is kind of a line in the sand for bulls to me (and it coincides with the 50% fib for the upmove). It held today with a couple pokes through on the 30min.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Lessons learned today:
    Mole on plane = GG at lunch = Julie at the dentist!

    Mark your calendars…. ’cause from now on….

  • Brishort

    Out of all shorts. Letting the Zero divergence play.
    If VIX continues to weaken, VWAP potentially on deck. ES 2743 currently

  • BKXtoZERO

    Listen to Julie is my lesson

  • Sp00nman

    Anyone buying the close here? 10:1 down volume on the NYSE is nasty. The only “problem” is we’re coming off a high rather than a low. Market internals are pretty horrible. Looks like we might get to that 2698 level by the close.

  • Brishort

    The potential retest of ES 2702 is not yet resolved. It looks to be in progress,
    Need more price action to have an action plan. Not clear yet.

  • Brishort

    VIX is NOT making a new high on the current retest. VXN however is.
    Zero 5 min is in potential divergence land as well.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys at dentist .. First very funny GG Cougar with the golden teeth LOL! Too much NOW the :Hedgies” sell signal earlier today
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If you didn’t have a plan to buy before open this morning, why not?
    were you fully prepared? are you letting circumstances influence you?

    do you have a simple system? are you bending any personal trading rules?
    do you know how much you can risk? do you have a feel for the severity of the risk?
    -GG

  • TimeToPanic

    I do think it’s a sell the rips market, but I’d be too scared to buy this close. What if the Deep State assassinate the President tomorrow?

  • bankwalker

    I hear Montana is famous for dental floss.

  • Brishort

    VIX & VXN consistent with retest behavior for today’s current price action. No additional fear showing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it was a rush job (but no worries, just a temporary)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    must. not. post. graphic.

  • Sp00nman

    Good post GG, good to keep those thoughts in perspective. Sometimes I like to post to get other’s thoughts for some perspective/sentiment. Washout selling like this tends to market short term bottoms (to play for a bounce) but we’re coming off a relative high so I will likely sit on hands.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sorry for the high horse. We’ve had some new guys blow up, and then point fingers. (It wasn’t pretty)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2705 and 2687 are levels to watch presently
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Scrap that, too long, zero falling off the plate. bottoms not retested successfully.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also 2692
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2700

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW and Vivacious cow girls
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    All good, I appreciate a good kick in the ass and to keep things in perspective. I play small so only thing I’ll blow up is my ego.. lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ask for the Nitrous.

    you have earned it!!

  • TimeToPanic

    Gap at 2681, fib at 2670.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Taking 3/4 off short moving stop up to 2750 on remaining 1/4 One leg at a time Guys ! May take the rest of week off have some vacation yet to burn
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    3 in a million odds..

    In this article we reviewed more than 20 studies with adequate data focusing on death associated with dental procedures since 1955 and found 218 deaths out of 71,435,282 patients (3 deaths per 1,000,000 persons) with the mortality rate of 1:327,684.Jun 1, 2017

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you are more likely to die from a Dentist, than win the big lotteries.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well GG that is comforting for an uncomfortable position in the dentist chair mouth wide open
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    What currently puzzles me is that VIX is still 1.2 points lower than at 13h30 despite touching 2698 on ES (i.e. 4 points lower than at 13h30).

    AND there is lot of after hours low volume to play with until Thursday….

    Short term conclusion. Not time to get short at these levels, Risk-reward is fishy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ROFL.
    put the phone down.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya me personally no way would I short the close. We’re at almost 13:1 down NYSE breadth. It’s tempting to buy a small piece long at the close for a bounce. Definitely hold your nose and buy situation.

    I think this might be the most negative we’ve seen breadth since the beginning of the year.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Funeral tomorrow, anything is possible for Thursday. IMHO.

    VIX is a racket. I look forward to Mole’s Vixen brag.
    πŸ˜‰

  • TimeToPanic

    Brave caterpillar, leaping all the way down to 162, brace, brace:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ca5q1zpm/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    try a short term fan, uphill from the 20th.

  • TimeToPanic

    Caterpillar killjoy you are.

  • Darkthirty

    a one anna two……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s good for you corporal! drop and give me 20!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Closed.

  • mSquare

    MSFT – Covered short (Dec PUTs up nice 55%). Good my ‘mental stop’ got bent yesterday on a spike above $113 yesterday and did not exit my position at a loss.

    Took a nice profit today (and not pressing short having been lucky!)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p5762586742c

    I back in $111-$112s may try short again…

  • TimeToPanic

    Ya, I’ll probably close my shorts tomorrow when I get up, expecting 20-30 NQ point bounce by then, but still a great trade, and then look to re-load on a retracement I think.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “have a plan, trade the plan”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was wondering about you.
    However, be aware of that bending the rule ‘one time’. Can set you up for disaster in the future. At least that’s my experience.

    a win short term, that karma gets you long term.

  • Darkthirty

    thank you Susie n bobby

  • TimeToPanic

    Julie’s ‘plan the trade, trade the plane’ is very similar. No fighting over which one is best though.

  • Sp00nman

    Maybe a short at the close isn’t a terrible idea, if you’re willing to sit through some pain. High TRIN, plus >10:1 selling, plus we’re coming off a short term high likely means we are going to retest the lows.. I’m not going to short the hole but will be watching things.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did you type trade the plane?
    auto suggestive of Mole riding on a plane!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Lol, it’s been a busy day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    I work from home, this is chill time for me, 21.31, catching up on blogs etc. Enjoy your evening.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    with all the auto companies laying off, perhaps New cars will be available at a discount?

    Peak AutoZone!
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4af1801343f8594bf597328605ba1f93ec77aab067b5a293fa70757242db5974.png

  • mSquare

    I hear you and agree – most of my biggest losses are indeed bending my own rules but I am having fewer of those…

    But in this case:

    I only had a mental stop but got busy elsewhere and did not notice it tripped. For high-volume stocks like MSFT with big volume near-term options too, I do not always set actual stops as they tend to take options away on spikes!

    So this is not a rule ‘bend’ but a modified ‘soft rule’ that had a stop that tripped and not noticed…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, that looks pretty f…ing bad. Like in triple top bad. We could see some real fireworks here next week unless we see a ramp tomorrow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was at the dentist myself today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was at the dentist myself today, so maybe it was me!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @Julie – we both went to the dentist today. What are the odds of that? LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    This soooo totally sucked….. I had a customer issue at work the last few days that I had to be in early for. I didn’t put on any TVIX because I didn’t have time to watch it. Sheeez. I hear folks on the local Seattle radio talking about this sell off… they lost 3% and they need to be comforted LOL… stay the course is the advice they are giving

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    1-in-63.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him DRINK.
    ;-D

    Just imagine what you could have done with today?!?
    [VIX]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9744532104c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t claim that I have clairvoyance.
    But *I do* see what Mole is talking about. You taking every trade.
    some lose, some win.

    Best case, the Winners pay for it all.

  • TimeToPanic

    Some of my ill-gotten gains evaporating in the after-hours, bastards. No matter, they can pinch a bit back, I’ll be back again.

    Some of you may already think I’m a lunatic, you’d actually be quite correct! I do have disturbed sleep in the 2 days leading into full moons, very odd dreams, like playing in the Ryder Cup, that was a fun one (yes, we beat the Yanks again of course, heh).

    The point to this little anecdote, which may seriously increase your wealth:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/qhUxM4xa/

    New moon = sell, full moon = buy.
    New moon on 7th, it’ll rip tomorrow and Thursday into Friday, you watch.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    now that it’s 1:30 London time. listen to me scrimshanker.
    you will sleep like a newborn baby,
    you will sleep like a newborn baby.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys EUM (Emerging Markets ETF) today (Tuesday) bounced off it’s daily 233 ema Oversold and mid channel matching lower Keltner Channel Looks like a trend day strong momentum and very strong volume closing above it’s 5 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd4a23fd75f0f011928ea9b5b087200b8a6f4077b5f592a71c67940e0d183669.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Just closed NQ shorts at 6840. Count myself lucky to have caught that big down day. More to come end of the week methinks.

    Weird to see Bush lauded later, the man who arranged JFKs murder and tried to do the same to Reagan. Horrible family, pure evil.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Reagan, Cronkite, wait, is that Warren Buffet?!

    https://i.imgflip.com/xkcem.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Just a heads up…watch for a bounce perhaps before another fall..
    https://twitter.com/mcclellanosc/status/1070098949124444161?s=21

  • Sp00nman

    Yes this is why I was considering a long at the close yesterday. TRIN closed at 2.74 (arms index) and U/D volume closed at -13:1, also called a “washout.” Such extreme selling pressure can be seen as an extreme in bearish sentiment which can mark a bottom (short term at least).

    The million dollar question of course is whether it is an actual bottom or we get follow through in the coming days. If the day put in a new low it’d be easier to justify buying the dip. Such extreme selling pressure coming off a recent move higher may take some time to “dissipate” which means a retest of the lows isn’t unlikely. IMO.. If others care to chime in I’d love to hear others’ thoughts.

  • bankwalker

    Nat Gas significant reversal into red giving back overnight gains.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Inverted yield. everyone’s talking about it.
    that’s the problem, in today’s information age, something well know can be worthless.

    So putting on my analytic/quant hat. “What is different? like a fly in the soup, turning something of value into worthless.

    Has anyone, or anybody, noticed the decline slope? It’s different
    My two cents. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/07e8b083409094528c91d7cd3846ca106ccbb1981b2d96403cfea781b276c468.png You heard it here first.

    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    So much about this whacked-out environment has for years been unprecedented.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Strange that we analyze Market environment(s) from 50 or 75 years ago.
    Human nature may remain the same, but everything else is Vastly different.

  • Sp00nman

    It sure is different this time in the sense that the ten year has had such a low yield for the last ~10yrs. Not to mention in 2016 it hit a low of 1.3%. Perhaps this is the reason why the slope is less steep and flatter..? Not sure what (if any) meaning it has.

  • BKXtoZERO

    1000 points of light……….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Quantitative Easing.

  • TimeToPanic

    They did that back in the 30s too.

    Nothing is different, it’s just a global thing now, and gold is out of the mainstream system, that’s why this bubble has lasted so long. The bursting will be spectacular.

  • TimeToPanic

    Thanks, hope so.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…very-exactly similar to the 30’s is the present withdrawing of liquidity and the net increasing of rates. The unpresendented illusion this time around being the net rate increase came from deeply negative rate areas.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….kinder gentler…. machine gun hand.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    I’m on my phone, please excuse typos.i don’t have my charts handy either.

    There’s been no real fear yet, we’ll see that soon I believe. Trendlines from 2009 will be tested, spx especially I think.

    Trin hasn’t been as high as it should be, too much complacency, it’s starting to perk up now. Next week could be the move that washed things out. Then wave 5 up can begin ( lol, couldn’t resist).

  • Darkthirty

    Bizarre ritual…Honor the corpse, before it rots. To hell with a portrait! Does anyone know a good taxidermist?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, this slo-motion creep is pretty damm ominous if one notes there has yet to appear any of the acceleration typical of a end-of-move.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya I agree, definitely a lack of fear compared to the pullback at the beginning of the year. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca1477d3a9bbea0ba226df27cbf545d205bffe348dd76fcb03fcfaefe56a4cb4.png We’ve only had two days with 10:1 or more down days thus far in this pullback and yesterday was the first TRIN > 2.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep I think not being pegged to any commodity and being truly a fiat currency allows a lot more “manipulation” and can kicking. I was way too bearish in ’08 and have learned the can kicking can/will go on longer than you think.

  • TimeToPanic

    Well, quiet opening to futures tonight. For those who missed it live, I think I saw NQ dive 3%.

  • Darkthirty

    1000 es points………..

  • TimeToPanic

    Come on bulls, buy the freaking dip for me.

  • TimeToPanic

    I look forward to telling the grandchildren of the night I witnessed the 200 point NQ flash crash in 200 seconds:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/zi4iHjIh/

  • bankwalker

    equity futures open down ….

  • Jason13

    Wow…

  • TimeToPanic

    Bed time, not much of a bounce so far, I wonder if they’ll drag it back to breakeven by tomorrow morning (UK time)? Can’t really see it. Maybe a bounce back to 2700 SPX at some point this week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just logged in, long day.
    lemme seee…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    welcome to knife catching 101.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    somebody’s playing stinky finger with the sell button …

  • Sp00nman

    Ya seriously, I didn’t realize they spiked down 70 handles immediately and they’ve been consolidating/flagging since then. Jeez..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve never seen this magnitude (point wise), but it definitely reminds me of 2009/2010 periods.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Why didn’t I think of that ! I love em ! Thanks GG for the heads up Looks like the Chief on book on left and book on right Well … I already have him !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys not sure if anyone has noticed SPX could be what is called a complex Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern A left shoulder Two heads and now a right shoulder OR a Triple top
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    I know I am 2 days late, but I had a few responses.
    I think the order of the yield rates should be reversed. The longer yield is supposed to be larger. The problem happens when a shorter yield is bigger, meaning when you subtract the younger yield from the longer yield and get a negative number.

    Also, this is meant as a long term signal. So, the idea that after the inverted yield the market would climb another 25% could also fit in.
    I believe the point is that 6 to 18 months _after_ the yields invert, a recession may happen. When I look at the graph, the yields inverted before the crash and recession in 2000 started and before the crash and Credit Crisis happened in 2008.
    Here is the graph I see. It hasn’t inverted, but if it does, it could be 6 to 18 months before fireworks and there could be great climbing before then.
    http://schrts.co/rh9nbu

  • Darkthirty

    Isn’t that 3 peaks and a dome pattern?