I don’t have much to say today – equities are reversing as expected but the magnitude of the correction is not yet clear.
Let’s do this top down – the weekly SPX chart shows prices back below the 1204 NLBL. Now, I did already cover this yesterday and it’s not unexpected. We still have one session remaining before this candle closes and even if we stay below we may bust through it next week. It would have to happen in the coming week however, despite the NLBL being valid through week 43 – the subs know why. Yes, I’m worse than a cheerleader tease in a skimpy uniform – just can’t help myself.
Let’s skip the currently rather useless daily chart and look at the hourly spoos. Whenever I see a cluster of net-lines trace down the 25-hour SMA then I know that the down trend remains intact. The current swing up represents the first test to overcome this resistance cluster and get to 1200 (roughly the 1204 NLBL on the weekly SPX). I don’t see much confidence either way right now and wouldn’t take any bets either way (yet). This is wait and see tape.
Alright two commodity setups before I call it a day – please step into my evil lair:
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Crude ran off in a hurry on Monday and we barely had a chance to grab that buy signal. It’s been retesting 83.23 today again though and quickly busted higher. That’s a good sign and if you want to go long here then I suggest a stop slightly below that 25-day SMA hovering at 84. If you can afford it and feel confident then 83.23 should be your line in the sand.
Sugar may manage to push above that 27.08 NLBL on the hourly – which is also a few ticks below the 100-day SMA on the daily panel. As a good stop I propose the 25-day SMA at 26.41.