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Quite Elementary My Dear Watson
122

Quite Elementary My Dear Watson

by The MoleAugust 4, 2009

Well, its’ quite elementary, my dear rats. The key in cracking this mystery lies in the Dollar:

Which is getting pounded into the sand again this morning. Unless this thing finds a bottom and snaps back equitity traders (most of them being bullish at the moment) have little incentive to start taking profits. And that in turn is the rub – the big bears are MIA and selling will only ensue once the bulltarts think it’s time to take profits.

So watch the ole’ buck – which might turn today, tomorrow – tough to say. I’d venture that it will happen ahead of 76.15 – if we breach that one we are all seriously fucked.

As I said – quite elementary 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • annamall

    That's what I been saying Molester! I am long EUR/USD and had 6 winning trades out of 6 on FX, much easier maket to trade these days!
    thanks for the charts. 🙂

  • Me_XMan

    SPX making high 1004.63

  • Hao Q.

    nice trades, you are getting better and better in FX LOL

    i went long eur/usd yesterday too, gonna keep them for weeks.

  • annamall

    Thank you Hao! I appreciate that. It is so much simpler to trade FX!! I wish i had known sooner.
    LOL
    G/L to us both 🙂

  • Keirsten

    100.86 is resistance on SPY here- just a FYI.

    Fellow RIMM traders- I took off half my puts this morning and hedged long on the jump. Will watch for it to backtest the broken TL today. If it breaks through I'll most likely cut the rest of my puts loose and re-evaluate. Still profitable on FSLR puts today (this one really does have a beautiful, legit island top pattern in progress,) and trading HGSI and CENX.

    Ropey- I see no compelling price action to get short on GS here either… so far. But watching. G/L

    Busy for the next several days with another trader so will pop in when time allows, and I hope you all do well today! 🙂

  • milingz

    SLV at 14.43 and Silver futures are 14.651. Is it time to short silver?

  • Mr. Burns

    Any knife-catchers left? Here comes a terrifying entry. I have my stops and jock-strap on.

  • thunda72

    Breaking news on Bloomberg. Cong. Schulmer and Co. and saying the ban on flash trading is imminent.

  • fa_q

    I do believe we are seeing a blowoff top in IYR. Loaded up the shorts at 37.50 and 37.60.

  • trabuco

    Careful Anna, euro at support…

  • Bankrupt

    that was good for 2 points on es

  • thunda72

    Yeah… this will affect GS more than anyone…

  • annamall

    thanks sweetie, I keep buying under 144.00 and selling when I get 15 or 20 pips. 🙂

  • LegendC

    I haven't seen a buy signal on SPY since last thursday, each sell signal has only been good for a quick scalp.

  • RagnarDanneskjöld

    Depends on time frame, short term (hours to days), it looks a little toppy but with the dollar in a swan dive I would be cautious. Longer term (weeks-months), absolutely not. In my opinion $20 is in the works…
    ~
    – Don't jump in front of a moving train
    – Trade the market you have not the one you want

  • annamall

    Heeyyyye Special K! I am loving FX. 6 out of 6 winners so far. :)))

    I am long USO and XOM calls on both. Everytime we dip even a little buyers rush in.

  • C's & 3's

    EWI thinks so

  • ACJ

    Market should rally on this news!

  • KidDisco

    That move was ridiculous.
    Its right at some key resistance going back to December and Novemeber.

  • wex

    Meant to tell you about Currency Trader Mag. which is a free e-magazine. If you aren't aware of it, worth a look. http://www.currencytradermag.com

  • Keirsten

    Good job! I still have my training wheels on w/FX right now.
    Be careful on your USO w/inventory in the AM. ( I already know you will) Protect your profits. 🙂

  • Scrillhog

    Perhaps the $ will continue to slide down to 76, just in time to hit SPX 1050 – 1060, then we get a rally in the $ and a drop on SPX (I really hesitate to say “tank”) due to upcoming 10/ 30 yr auctions next week. That's my guess for the upcoming week we'll see how it plays out.

    In the meantime I'm scalping VWAP/ crossovers on /NQ, /ES and long commods (/ZC etc..)

    Manage to be just barely in the green on equities… Mainly because of puts burning theta but my long hedges have been saving me. Nice gains in LDK, LVS..

  • Keirsten

    Anna- be sure to check out DXO and UCO when you get a minute.

  • annamall

    Will do and thanks sistah! FX is da bomb. 🙂 if the USD keeps dropping as I suspect it will USO will climb higher.

  • annamall

    Thank you Wex you are a scholar and a gentleman! 🙂

  • annamall

    Ok will do!

  • Bankster

    TF is going ballistic. Bulls are crazy. It's like 2007 all over again.

  • GDII

    and 1007.5 is the last swing high on spx from 11/4/08. 1015 is roughly the 50% fan from 2007 high.
    plus china is in consolidation. market needs extra energy to push higher. unemployment on friday maybe a very good one.

  • ropey

    Yep that's fine, GS was a quick trade, just spotted some relative weakness yesterday so took advantage for a buck or so but no position right now.

  • Keirsten

    Just as a swing trading vehicle, nothing more. I think you'd like them better than the way USO moves, but keep an eye on how they move in comparison.

  • Keirsten

    I need to see it break the LOD, and it didn't happen, so just working on the daily and weekly chart to set some entry targets for the days ahead. If it gets through 166.42 this afternoon, then will not get short- next target above @ 172

  • annamall

    I am out of MA puts, the price actions looks like consolidation to me and it's going even higher. Jeeezzz nothing wants to go down in this tape. 🙂 except the USD.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Why is Rimm up so much?

  • Douala

    This smells of topping! [Scratch & Sniff… below]
    The fearsome 4 somesome
    APPL [down -1.08]
    AMZN [down -0.86]
    GOOG [down -0.51]
    RIMM [up +3.0]

    Plus….
    UUP [down -0.01]
    GS [up + 0.53]
    VIX [ down -0.40]

  • annamall

    thanks will do! 🙂

  • OldManRiver

    Quite Elementary Indeed: China Is Ditching The USD

    http://www.leap2020.eu/when-china-prepares-its-

  • Keirsten

    Beats me Big, estimate did get a small bump, but other than that…. just watching to see the action at that TL now…

  • KidDisco

    Is there some news for IYR?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems that RiMM is the only one up compared to the other 4 horse man….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    The other horse man are down or up very little. mmmmmmmmm

  • annamall

    Google now green and AMZN coming back as well.

  • fa_q

    Couple companies reported and sent in a massive short squeeze. SPG wasn't that great. Fine with me, I'm adding on the way up.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Now that they've stockpiled actually useful comodities like copper (instead of lunacy, AKA gold) they can ditch the $USd, force up commodities for RoW, and chuckle while everyone else redistributes wealth to Brazil & Australia at their own expense.

    I'm beginning to wonder if this is what Geithner talked to them about during his last visit.
    It would stabilize the global economy.

  • Keirsten

    Fund money still rolling in today- that's the best I can think of, and they all want to own RIMM methinks. Looks good in those portfolios.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Short RIMM at 79.90

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This is a fake out…The last people to the party…Next big move will be down.Need to be patient

  • disrespekt

    The problem with this scenario lies within how China has dealt with its massive surpluses – it has sterilized its reserves by soaking up dollars in its domestic economy and printing yuan in order to maintain its currency peg. The pace of China's industrialization would not have been possible without the US taking the debts necessary to fund it along with China's stubborn export ponzi model, where in the latter stages some 40% of GDP was FDI.

    The entire world is going to discover that there simply isn't enough demand out there absent western ponzi FIRE economies and exponential debt growth. The demand that fueled China's growth was artificial.

    If China tries this, this will all end badly, probably in war. There is no easy exit from the USD trap. The Gulf States are sitting on more reserves than China, and Japan has a ton of them too. China's not going to be chuckling, nobody is.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • disrespekt

    RSI on the dailies now above 76, on IYR above 74…

    Nothing is showing any signs of respecting any sort of technical indicator, stochs imbedded for half a month, volume still declining

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Gotta be out for a couple of hours… you guys keep this thing propped up until I get back please

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    just like oct 2008 – technical indicators were ignored.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /NQ short parked 2875 stop +3.25

  • LostIllini

    To put it another way… If you are a Canadian and you put your Canadian Dollars to work in the S&P 500 March 6, 2009 you would be up a whopping 7% after currency translation. Quite a rally we are having…..

  • zenith191

    Glad you changed your avatar back Keirsten.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    market can stay overbought or oversold indefinitely – any momentum indicator cannot be used stand alone

  • rhae

    fwiw and maybe not much… My daily SPY forced Pitchfork tagged the median line and 1,27 fib extention near todays hod 100.80… those are just lines and nothing says it's can't go higher.
    But I like to keep a sharp look out around certain lines, phantom lines or not

  • Bankrupt

    could we sell off now????

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    oh-ho
    all counts just reset 🙁
    but I don't mind about slightly itsy-bitsy higher high

  • ckeltner

    It works well with sector rotation. Those that led up go down first while those that lag up (financials) rally last/top last.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks my fellow feline. 🙂 She was a little too tart-ish for me too, not to mention that red was making my eyes cross. 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my personal opinion… wE'D BETTER SELL!!!!

  • fa_q

    I've got a full position averaged at 37.95

  • disrespekt

    the market rallied pretty furiously off of those breaches of 30, the stochs didn't embed like this and the volume was confirming…

    I guess we were more overbought on the weeklies back in 07 prior to the onset of the crash

  • KidDisco

    Sigh…

  • Bankrupt

    that was good for 2 points on es

  • thunda72

    Yeah… this will affect GS more than anyone…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    thanks sweetie, I keep buying under 144.00 and selling when I get 15 or 20 pips. 🙂 Did you mean EUR @ resistance right?

  • LegendC

    I haven't seen a buy signal on SPY since last thursday, each sell signal has only been good for a quick scalp.

  • RagnarDanneskjöld

    Depends on time frame, short term (hours to days), it looks a little toppy but with the dollar in a swan dive I would be cautious. Longer term (weeks-months), absolutely not. In my opinion $20 is in the works…
    ~
    – Don't jump in front of a moving train
    – Trade the market you have not the one you want

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Heeyyyye Special K! I am loving FX. 6 out of 6 winners so far. :)))

    I am long USO and XOM calls on both. Everytime we dip even a little buyers rush in.

  • C's & 3's

    EWI thinks so

  • ACJ

    Market should rally on this news!

  • KidDisco

    That move was ridiculous.
    Its right at some key resistance going back to December and Novemeber.

  • wex

    Meant to tell you about Currency Trader Mag. which is a free e-magazine. If you aren't aware of it, worth a look. http://www.currencytradermag.com

  • Keirsten

    Good job! I still have my training wheels on w/FX right now.
    Be careful on your USO w/inventory in the AM. ( I already know you will) Protect your profits. 🙂

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Perhaps the $ will continue to slide down to 76, just in time to hit SPX 1050 – 1060, then we get a rally in the $ and a drop on SPX (I really hesitate to say “tank”) due to upcoming 10/ 30 yr auctions next week. That's my guess for the upcoming week we'll see how it plays out.

    In the meantime I'm scalping VWAP/ crossovers on /NQ, /ES and long commods (/ZC etc..)

    Manage to be just barely in the green on equities… Mainly because of puts burning theta but my long hedges have been saving me. Nice gains in LDK, LVS..

  • Keirsten

    Anna- be sure to check out DXO and UCO when you get a minute.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Will do and thanks sistah! FX is da bomb. 🙂 if the USD keeps dropping as I suspect it will USO will climb higher.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thank you Wex you are a scholar and a gentleman! 🙂 I will check it out

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Ok will do! Wow DXO was @ 2.00 first of year. that would have been a sweet trade, are you long either one?

  • Bankster

    TF is going ballistic. Bulls are crazy. It's like 2007 all over again.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    and 1007.5 is the last swing high on spx from 11/4/08. 1015 is roughly the 50% fan from 2007 high.
    plus china is in consolidation. market needs extra energy to push higher. unemployment on friday maybe a very good one.

  • ropey

    Yep that's fine, GS was a quick trade, just spotted some relative weakness yesterday so took advantage for a buck or so but no position right now.

  • Keirsten

    Just as a swing trading vehicle, nothing more. I think you'd like them better than the way USO moves, but keep an eye on how they move in comparison.

  • Keirsten

    I need to see it break the LOD, and it didn't happen, so just working on the daily and weekly chart to set some entry targets for the days ahead. If it gets through 166.42 this afternoon, then will not get short- next target above @ 172

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am out of MA puts, the price actions looks like consolidation to me and it's going even higher. Jeeezzz nothing wants to go down in this tape. 🙂 except the USD.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Why is Rimm up so much?

  • Douala

    This smells of topping! [Scratch & Sniff… below]
    The fearsome 4 somesome
    APPL [down -1.08]
    AMZN [down -0.86]
    GOOG [down -0.51]
    RIMM [up +3.0]

    Plus….
    UUP [down -0.01]
    GS [up + 0.53]
    VIX [ down -0.40]

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    thanks will do! 🙂

  • Guest

    Quite Elementary Indeed: China Is Ditching The USD

    http://www.leap2020.eu/when-china-prepares-its-

  • Keirsten

    Beats me Big, estimate did get a small bump, but other than that…. just watching to see the action at that TL now…

  • KidDisco

    Is there some news for IYR?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems that RiMM is the only one up compared to the other 4 horse man….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    The other horse man are down or up very little. mmmmmmmmm

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Google now green and AMZN coming back as well.

  • fa_q

    Couple companies reported and sent in a massive short squeeze. SPG wasn't that great. Fine with me, I'm adding on the way up.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Now that they've stockpiled actually useful comodities like copper (instead of lunacy, AKA gold) they can ditch the $USd, force up commodities for RoW, and chuckle while everyone else redistributes wealth to Brazil & Australia at their own expense.

    I'm beginning to wonder if this is what Geithner talked to them about during his last visit.
    It would stabilize the global economy.

  • Keirsten

    Fund money still rolling in today- that's the best I can think of, and they all want to own RIMM methinks. Looks good in those portfolios.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Short RIMM at 79.90

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This is a fake out…The last people to the party…Next big move will be down.Need to be patient

  • disrespekt

    The problem with this scenario lies within how China has dealt with its massive surpluses – it has sterilized its reserves by soaking up dollars in its domestic economy and printing yuan in order to maintain its currency peg. The pace of China's industrialization would not have been possible without the US taking the debts necessary to fund it along with China's stubborn export ponzi model, where in the latter stages some 40% of GDP was FDI.

    The entire world is going to discover that there simply isn't enough demand out there absent western ponzi FIRE economies and exponential debt growth. The demand that fueled China's growth was artificial.

    If China tries this, this will all end badly, probably in war. There is no easy exit from the USD trap. The Gulf States are sitting on more reserves than China, and Japan has a ton of them too. China's not going to be chuckling, nobody is.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • disrespekt

    RSI on the dailies now above 76, on IYR above 74…

    Nothing is showing any signs of respecting any sort of technical indicator, stochs imbedded for half a month, volume still declining

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Gotta be out for a couple of hours… you guys keep this thing propped up until I get back please

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    just like oct 2008 – technical indicators were ignored.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    /NQ short parked 2875 stop +3.25

    damn had to raise the stop!

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    To put it another way… If you are a Canadian and you put your Canadian Dollars to work in the S&P 500 March 6, 2009 you would be up a whopping 7% after currency translation. Quite a rally we are having…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • zenith191

    Glad you changed your avatar back Keirsten.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    market can stay overbought or oversold indefinitely – any momentum indicator cannot be used stand alone

  • rhae

    fwiw and maybe not much… My daily SPY forced Pitchfork tagged the median line and 1,27 fib extention near todays hod 100.80… those are just lines and nothing says it's can't go higher.
    But I like to keep a sharp look out around certain lines, phantom lines or not

    demark PP rez. 101.05 could it fizzle out before it gets there?

  • Bankrupt

    could we sell off now????

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    oh-ho
    all counts just reset 🙁
    but I don't mind about slightly itsy-bitsy higher high

  • ckeltner

    It works well with sector rotation. Those that led up go down first while those that lag up (financials) rally last/top last.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks my fellow feline. 🙂 She was a little too tart-ish for me too, not to mention that red was making my eyes cross. 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    my personal opinion… wE'D BETTER SELL!!!!

  • fa_q

    I've got a full position averaged at 37.95

  • disrespekt

    the market rallied pretty furiously off of those breaches of 30, the stochs didn't embed like this and the volume was confirming…

    I guess we were more overbought on the weeklies back in 07 prior to the onset of the crash

  • KidDisco

    Sigh…