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Ramp And Camp
51

Ramp And Camp

by The MoleApril 12, 2019

Equity futures have pumped higher overnight on economic data coming out of China once again bolstering confidence in the resilience of our global economy. Or that’s at least the explanation you are going to see being served up in the financial media, which never tires in providing a service that never has and never will offer any serious trader a competitive advantage.

Now I do understand that journalists would feel the need to report on economic reports or the latest happenings in global finance. ButΒ I have always found this chronic obsession to justify every wiggle in the tape a bit hilarious.

I guess it’s just human nature to try to seek simple explanations for various events all around us that may have more complex causality. But I personally never saw any value in it beyond its historical context, even as a fledgling trader.

Be this as it may we’re most likely are looking at a ramp & camp type situation today as FOMO will most likely draw a bunch of Johnny-Come-Latelies into grabbing long positions after the open. At minimum the open will trigger a bunch of stops and thus I wouldn’t be surprised to see another pop higher in the first hour.

Although I am never one to underestimate a short squeeze, I should point out that the SQN signal has breached its upper BB for the first time in weeks. And after such a strong push it would not be unusual to see a bit of profit taking before this rally continues on its merry way.

I am a bit miffed about having been stopped out by a handful of ticks ahead of this push higher, but then again I did exit with 5.5R in profits and thus should listen to my own advice which would be to ‘shut the hell up and be happy with what you’ve got, Mole!

After a massive dump gold is a stop out – however fortunately it’s at break/even. Quite honestly although I have been pretty lucky with my recent gold campaigns (previous stop-out at ISL notwithstanding) I am beginning to consider putting precious metals onto a temporary ‘shitlist’.

Reason being is once again to listen to my own advice which is to be selective when picking your markets as all of them go through easy and crappy periods. Gold has been stuck in a rut for a very long time and it’s been far from an easy trade. Maybe time to put it away for a while and revisit once it finally picks a bloody direction. As you know I’m not known to be an avid swing trader.

Which of course brings up the thoughts of bitcoin and how it surprised everyone with a quick ramp higher after months of churn and inactivity. Yes – true that – but I refuse to let FOMO drive my trading decisions as you could point to dozens of sideways markets in expectation of a sudden break-out move.

And we all know where chronic contrarianism leads over the long term. Systematic account decimation – that’s where. Survivorship bias is a thing, and you rarely hear from all the bag holders who repeatedly made high risk bets and had their accounts cleaned out that way.

ZB is most likely going to be a stop out and it seems that bonds are going to revert back into shake out mode. It happens and quite frankly – this was an entry I would take every single time. Well planned and well executed – just doesn’t always pan out.

Words To The Wise

On that note some words to the wise: Reading this post you may get the impression that I’m in a down mood, so let me assure you that the exact opposite is true – I’m in rather excellent spirits today and have been in recent weeks.

Let me remind you that this blog was launched in 2008 as a means of expressing my ongoing thoughts regarding the financial markets as well as my trading activities, whatever that may entail.Β To that end it has served me personally as a historical gauge allowing me to keep things real and not to fall into believing my own bullshit. It’s easy to convince yourself of your own invincibility or infallibility during the easy days which is why it’s even more important to keep track of the times when things aren’t going your way.

Again I should not be one to complain as I think that Ms. Market has treated me quite favorably over the past 18 months, which by all accounts have been rather challenging. On that positive note let’s call it a week and pick things up on Monday morning πŸ˜‰


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    Around 4AM this morning (EDT) there were a number “jumps”…EUR, ES, Bond yields, Crude. Did I miss something when I was in bed-wetting sleep? Mole was up then…was there some news? (Yeah, spike high at the open…we’ll see what happens after that)

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    The China loans number Mole is referring to in the article was released.

  • ridingwaves

    and yet, its really about bank earnings….JPM and WF reported and beat….

  • ridingwaves

    2900 party hats…..what an un thinkable move off the December lows

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Crude jumped 25 cents at 4 am because banks reported pre market?

  • zzezzezz

    ugh.. pain…

  • zzezzezz
  • HD

    HD Mod HD β€’ 19 hours ago
    All I’m saying is the market can correct via time. It’s been sideways for 5 days now. Sellers need a miracle or it’s gap over 2900 and go.

    —have a great weekend everyone.

  • ridingwaves

    they reported at 3:50Am EST

  • Jason13

    No it was about the Chinese loans and liquidity influx.

  • bankwalker

    You da man … for today anyway …

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    6:50

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shazaam.

    HD, I’m open to check, cash, silver, or money order.
    no elk steaks.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b55b321c685b940ad7dd6fda9f164cc26177a4e893d16adabada5e30a2feb7a6.png

  • ridingwaves

    its main reason for surge….FIRE symbols rolled from there……its all about earnings again as they allayed fears about earnings slow down

    bears can’t seem to figure out shorting during earnings season has been a disaster since 2012…..easily the 100th time I posted it here since then…

  • Jason13

    So you bought yesterday knowing this?;)

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    I call it a news drive if it is an immediate and unusual big reaction to any news release. I don’t see that at 6:50 or 8:10 but it can happen on earnings reports.

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent Post!

    “. . . But I have always found this chronic obsession to justify every wiggle in the tape a bit hilarious. . .”

    And one of many things that’s hilarious about this kind of financial news is just how short the market’s memory can be soon after its temporary excitement.

    ” I am beginning to consider putting precious metals onto a temporary β€˜shitlist’.”

    Gold keeps trying to lure me back with its bright shiny yellow smile but it’s laden with STD’s and been on my permanent shitlist for awhile.

    “. . .Let me remind you that this blog was launched in 2008 as a means of expressing my ongoing thoughts regarding the financial markets . . .”

    I can’t believe it’s been 10 years since I first came on board back in 2009. It’s been said that trading can be a lonely profession and I’m grateful to be able to come here and share my thoughts and read your thoughts and the thoughts of other people crazy enough to do what we do. πŸ™‚

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AAPL: daily – showing signs of negative divergence – similar to Sept/Oct 18 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d786d98357b61cbb80de466fa2b0a3ec7a597990764e31658392c6cbe7016ec.png

  • BobbyLow

    Someone wrote a few years back that it wouldn’t be long before we saw the DOW at 30,000. After channeling my inner bear, I thought this was a ridiculous statement at the time. Now not so much. . .

    On the trading front, I’m still short BIO via LABD, and still short Wheat. This morning I opened a 1/2 positon short Oil via OILD when /CL was at 64.07. This trade might be short lived. So far today’s high on Oil was 64.65 the low was 63.66. Last print was 64.30. This position has a tight stop and might need to be flipped before the COB.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice response πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Worth keeping an eye on but I ALWAYS need to see price confirmation first. At least give me a topping pattern on the ST panel, or a NLSL breach or something.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes not a sure thing but keeping eye on it..as you say need some confirmation

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not really a surprise to me. I recall posting in December that as EW goes, that the whole sell of looked like an abc. corrective down. That is why I was not surprised at all when it got past each hurdle area. I took shots but had an expected outcome in mind and this was it. Shoulda just went long huh? wish I held mu crude all this time.

  • BKXtoZERO

    adding to TVIX 21.74 today, building position last few days……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a like from Mole? “I’m not worthy!” – grovel grovel.

    Hey now, look at this, Mole is looking good from this Scottphilips forums. πŸ˜‰

    http://blog.scottphillipstrading.com/2019/01/19/advice-i-gave-to-some-struggling-traders/

    who the hell is GODRIC?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO
  • Ronebadger
  • zzezzezz
  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    I hear Julie saying 2910.99 and 2892.50 were level 2s and 2903.93 and 2899.57 important level 3s.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its internal volatility is recently pretty lame…Why not track it down with a moving stop?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice find with this..

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves 3 months ago
    tax loss selling into a no bid market is not good for portfolio, corrections are good. Money managers see a 14.4 Fwrd PE on stocks and say that is not a bubble….and then they buy…..

    wasn’t me, had no idea Scott a blog….but I was uber bullish at the dec lows….and took some flak for sure….the TTP conversation were funny….

  • BobbyLow

    Covered Wheat Short for a small gain and flipped to long at 463.50 just before the close. My Short BIO (LABD) is doing well. I like how BIO can have a mind of its own and not automatically get sucked into the draft of the major indices. I’m almost tempted to add to my crude short but it’s Friday and there’s no sense grabbing a tiger by the tail just before the weekend. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A possible breakout point failure Volume increasing since Wednesday which is bullish.Monitoring closely A co worker is taking me to show the sites around Boston this weekend.Boston and vicinity is basically where it all began i.e. Revolutionary War. Looking forward to this adventure. I have been to the Home Office before but not for this length of time.I gotta say very much different from Montana. Everyone Have A Great Weekend and Chief Thanks For The Post
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey baby, I’ll show you the sights.
    No charge.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ps. I know blondes can’t read maps.
    But please, share this with a stranger.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93aa2ad8f1e20bf4a59ac17b28bb79208a6a16328b9d72faa8254382e2b82297.png
    make sure you stay out of *south* Boston.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I would love to see the Superstition Mtns. My husband and his best friend have the crazy notion that they can find the Lost Dutchman Mine.A blood hound to pick up his scent … Another friend is a curator and has his pants and boots on display somewhere and they are going to use them to track the Dutchman’s moves. Supposedly a blood hound can pick up a scent 200 years old. GG Can you believe this.Too Much I start laughing so hard I cry when we talk about this.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, you’ve stated such.

    there’s likely more gold in Benjamin Franklin’s tomb, in PA.
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We were married within two weeks of meeting. Love the guy. Get this we were on a fishing boat Newport Bay Oregon Coast.The boat had engine trouble and unable to cross the bar into the ocean. The Coast Guard showed up and what does my husband say…. We need a tow out…. I was floored every boat with problems gets towed in NOT towed out. He has a sense of humor like you … Completely off the wall !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what? the Market’s closed?…went so fast.

    I’m celebrating.
    https://visitdallas.imgix.net/margarita-mile/casa_komali_1.jpg?w=800&h=400&fit=crop&crop=entropy,faces&q=60&fm=pjpg&auto=compress,enhance,format,redeye&trim=auto

    my condolences to any secret baby bears out there.
    (I use to be one)

    “don’t fight the BPSPX” – IMHO, ever.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p85144430594

  • BKXtoZERO

    I closed half that TVIX for a loss from 24 to 21.5… I had to go meet somone at lunch and have multiple things going on so I missed watching the Friday melt up. I ditched the DRV for a small loss…pared my TVIX ambitions…. Still long DWT. Belated have a good weekend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Need scuba gear…..it’s underwater………