After six years of pain the bears are used to rejection near inflection points. Which is why we keep seeing those bounces just when it looks like the tape is about to fall off the plate. But in the past few weeks I keep thinking the same thing over and over: How many stick saves are we going to see before this thing falls off the plate?
However, that said – the bears are starting to wear our their welcome. Yes, medium and long term tops take a while to form, but there comes the point when it becomes clear that there’s not sufficient selling pressure to take this dog any lower. That time is approaching fast now – if you project forward a few days: Let’s assume we get two or three more closes near the diagonal I painted on the daily (left panel) and we’ve effectively produced a bullish defense line. Odds for a bounce higher will increase rapidly now every day we remain above 1980.
I’m still short here from ES 2040 and won’t touch those until we fall off the plate or I get stopped out at break/even. It’s make or break time for the bears – let’s see if they blow it once again.
The VIX also at the line of scrimmage – that 23/24 mark has been holding thus far and supports the notion that we are at a technical inflection point.
On the setup side I’m actually taking my cues from the short term panels in expectations of turning them into daily campaigns. Here’s the USD/CAD which currently looks like an experimental long until about 1.256 – I want to be short below that.
More futures and forex setups below the fold:
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