RTV Sell Now Active
Last night I made quite a bit of noise about the possibility of a Retest Variation Setup across the equity futures trifecta. There were some short term consideration but essentially a breach of the previous day’s low put us into our brand spanking new spring shorts (no low riders and wifebeaters please).
The best setup in my book presented itself on the S&P 500 E-Mini futures as the RTV Sell trigger also had turned into a NLSL. We are below it now which means the configuration is active and you should be short at this point. My concern here are those weekly Net-Lines which may offer sufficient support to stall momentum here.
Meanwhile the NQ has well progressed past its entry point but is now approaching daily support in the form of the 100-day SMA. The weakest of the three but could also invite some dip buying and fail the setup.
The Dow futures are the strongest of the triplet and are just now triggering an entry.
A brand new Zero sub complained in the comment section suggesting that the Zero was broken. Nothing could be further from the truth but it actually fits into what’s irking me a bit right here. You see a flat signal like this means zero participation, which means the bears are NOT driving this sell off right now. They ought to be closing the deal but if no-one’s home it’s possible that short sellers are frantic about cutting and running early that they’ll effectively stall every retracement in its tracks. This whole mantra about ‘not fighting the Fed’ has become a self fulfilling prophecy if you will.
In any case, given the Zero signal I’m in Defcon Yellow mode and thus we should be very attentive to what the signal (and of course prices) will do toward the end of the session. This could very well turn into a failed RTV Sell in which case it may become a great buy.
The official stop is one tick above the Tuesday candle high at 1571 – a bit rich for me right now given what I’m seeing on the Zero Lite. So my suggestion is to instead use the 100-hour SMA at 1560 – an inflection point that usually works well for me. I know Scott will hate me for this but I do know the spoos like the backside of my hand and feel comfortable modding the rule set especially given how high the Tuesday candle range would get us.
I hope you guys went long the ZB this morning – the setup was freely available to everyone. We got a nice bounce at the 100-hour which ought to answer the nagging question as to why I use that one in the first place 😉
If you missed that entry then finally get over yourself and sign up for my FREE early morning briefing. Did I mention it’s FREE? Heaven knows I’ve got banners all over this site – so what are you waiting for? Alright, I’ve had my fill for the day – no need to take more setups. Let’s see how this equity situation plays out and we go from there.
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