Rolling Into Third Quarter

Time is keeps flying by and its pace only seems to be accelerating, at least on my end. I remember writing a Christmas holiday post not so long ago and now we’re already starting to roll into various Q3 contracts. What happened? Where did time go? I think that’s the curse of being a trader – effectively your time is spent mostly looking and thinking ahead. It becomes a mental pattern and I often have to force myself to switch off my brain and simply focus on the here and now.

Anyway, bond futures have now all rolled into September and gold (which uses strange months) into August. On the equities side we’ve got another week to go – official roll over is on June the 8th. Which isn’t exactly an ideal time to enter a futures trade. It’s a bit too soon to trade September and if you grab June then you either need to close or roll it by next Thursday.

I decided to go long the ES June contract yesterday on the anticipated dip lower (see yesterday’s post). If I wind up holding it until next Thursday I’ll simply roll it.  My stop is pretty nearby given recent realized volatility but we’re in a tight range and a drop below the tightly pinched hourly BB would most likely lead us much lower.

Campaign Updates

Ms. Market hasn’t exactly been kind this week. The EUR/USD is hanging by a thread and may be a stop out by the time you read this. If it pops higher and then revisits I’ll be sure to grab a long position with a stop below 1.11’6.

USD/JPY scraped my stop but if you recall it was a small position as it was considered a lottery ticket. It’s not unusual to see volatility contract after a big move and apparently the current sideways range is expected to continue. On the upside the current formation will most likely lead us to another entry opportunity as long as the recent longs aren’t broken. For now however it’s only on my watch list.

Copper also got stopped out but at 2R profits. Better than a kick in the shin and we may also see another entry opportunity here in the near future. Note that the daily is producing a pretty solid falling channel, which gives us a very defined range to work with.

Setups

AUD/USD actually is another stop out, and just by a few ticks before turned on the dime and ran back up. Just my luck I guess – I’m sure that never happens to you 

But it’s also another setup assuming that it’s touching my previous entry range at 0.7447. If it does then I’m long with a stop < 0.7415.

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