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Run Forest, Ruuunnn!!
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Run Forest, Ruuunnn!!

by The MoleApril 18, 2018

Alright, the bulls are in the zone now. According to historical statistics week #15 is the most bullish for equities with almost no SKEW, thus having closed in the plus 80% of the time since 1993.

The 100-day SMA is now being breached, the bears seem to be fumbling again. All that means the braces are finally ready to come off and it’s time to run! Run Forest, ruuuunnnn!!

Our E-Mini campaign is looking pretty solid at this point, however the big test is now right in front of us. A pop through the 100-day SMA is needed perhaps followed by a retest.

I’m trailing here at a comfortable distance away, a little under 2R in profits, giving it enough space to continue upward without getting kicked out by counter movements. I’ve got big plans for this one 😉

Bitcoin has remained indecisive and that 100-hour Bollinger keeps on squeezing. Not sure which way it’s going but the resolution should be explosive. ISL remains as is.

Some COMEX market making bastards seem to be following this blog as they nailed my stop almost by a tick. I however re-entered after another spike low represented itself at the very same entry mark.

The odds of this resolving higher have now increased substantially and we just have received additional downside context in defense of my new (or your old) ISL below 1340.

Silver however took off like a rocket and never looked back. Run, Forest, ruuuuunnnn!!!

Stop here goes to about 1R, once again I’m leaving this one plenty of space to do its thing.

Copper is also making us proud and I’m now trailing a little closer at about -0.5R MFE (i.e. maximum favorable excursion). Nevertheless, can we do another Forest?

Run Forest, ruuuuunnnn!!!

USD/CAD is a clean stop out, the little thugs caught up with Forest here. I did point out that this one was low probability due to the downside trend on the daily panel, so due to small position sizing I only did sacrifice 0.3% here.

In retrospect however I think there were easier dragons to be slayed due to complete lack of daily context.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Mr. Mole. The SI paid $2500 per. Thx amigo not saying it’s over.

  • Richard Adler

    I sometimes wonder if he’s just a shill for big money interests and his newsletter a “tell” – always do the opposite. Ha

  • Yoda

    That’s right, run like there is no tomorrow.

  • Yoda

    Check out also UNG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed9e49d8f60a1a262f8a8c49b163d928b7b4887ddfa3ee43f14569455c4ce4f3.png

    If long side resolves itself we may have a runner

  • BKXtoZERO

    flatted 1/2 TVIX from yesterday 7,41… ooot. up on entry from 7.08

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes thanks Mole. I have been a believer in silver but was tired of years of chop. You sure did snag the break out!

  • Yoda

    Why you keep playing with those hand grenades, especially during OPEX week?

  • ridingwaves

    $COMPQ
    now has price target of 7999 on PNF – Double top breakout yesterday

  • BKXtoZERO

    big pay out when right, I was expecting this gap fill and expecting another fake out break out candle. I will admit that while having the entry area close on the ES, my entry on TVIX totally sucked. I was surprised how much further it fell as ES gap was being filled. That was a lazy, early, bad entry. If they can hold ES up today, they win, if not, it is another fake-away candle with huge pay out.

  • HD

    If you’re a fan of country music or just good music, my buddy Drew Cooper has an album coming out Friday ‘420’- yup. He’s a cool dude. Give it a listen, White Horse, and support him if you want.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ92z7yGFBQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    I remember that! Kudos GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are a Gerbil god and I bow before thee

  • Yoda

    Looks like gambling to me, with very poor odds to boot.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL. I’m still down 2% on that position, let’s see if there is any follow through.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m not a fan, but
    For all those traders, that just can’t win.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXL65Nd_O1o

  • BKXtoZERO

    I nailed the last 3, 75% success counting this one, although this one looks like it may be for real. If they fail today then it is 100%

  • BKXtoZERO

    sounds pretty good to me.

  • BobbyLow

    We’re getting a bump in wheat today and I flipped over to the long side (I think weather had been helping to hold price back). I’m also glad I hedged my oil short yesterday and am now net long. I think you’re right about $75 but how about those fuckers? We had a significant build that was ignored during the Syria threat and oil rallied. We get a drawdown today and it’s off to the races again as oil rallies.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Like Julie said,
    You have a plan, go for it. Just assess now and then.
    There’s a saying, pennies in front of steam roller.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00671897308

  • Ronebadger

    SPX up…AND, VIX up 6%+ … OPEX related?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    wheat feels ready, winter crop taking big time weather hits this year..
    oil, bankers love it right now, might as well sit at the same table….

  • ridingwaves

    kind of blues country….
    420 day at golden gate park, weather perfect, I expect massive crowd, mostly unemployed folks streaming across the bay via BART, leaving tons of trash and urine on yards….

  • Brishort

    Very appreciated. Thanks for the insight, still always so relevant! Sorry a bit busy on other stuff, hence little participation. Shall be back in a few weeks!

  • ridingwaves

    The International Monetary Fund urged central banks Wednesday to take a gradual and transparent approach to tightening monetary policy, warning that unexpected moves could shock the global economy

    I call them the international monetary fraudsters…. La Garde and her ilk will find tar and feathers one day. I might be dead but I will rejoice….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {GG waves}
    (sniff)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    those moves paid out a lot more than pennies dude…. but yes a quick look at a weekly chart of TVIX is always a good reminder for me what it is that I am extracting gain from. I just wish there was a 3X inverse VIX.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    There’s got to be a way to monetize that.

  • ridingwaves

    the funny thing is I walked thru the mass amount of 420 consumption 2 years in a row with my sidekick Aussie shepherd and their is little conversation about changing the world, its was more like grunts, laughs, giggles and “ere” as joints are being passed around. Plus many of them are just fucking litter bug stoners with no brains. The smart stoners have moved on…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you might as well go FULL CRACK COCAINE and trade options. Not good for your health IMHO.
    😉

    https://www.optionsbro.com/vix-options-trader-just-made-232650000/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looking to exit miners pretty soon for the time being.

  • Darkthirty

    Pull option prices on E3CJ8. They expire at 3:00 CST. 10 ES move is 2X your investment. Not sure how may “r” that is. Noted that all your charts seem to be dailies, but if you can scalp you’re golden, Gerb

  • ridingwaves

    nice timed trade Mr. Mark….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sooo, check is in the mail? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You still wonder??

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…its within about 1% of rational local objective….but metal rallys rational??

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay folks, we may see some pushback here if this doesn’t pick up today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9654f0e3e36e900a78a05cf3d2c68a065e78a0007bbf08058e01574e6965f70f.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Where’s Julie? sleepy head.

  • Julie

    Hi GG 10;00 break time. Watching SPX closely per chart shown yesterday i.e. targets
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Mobile junk food stands? 😉

  • Julie

    Mark GDX may close above the Cloud on the weekly chart. If so that is bullish Room to run up on the Stochs. A caveat is the weekly conversion line (8) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8db2b897b1e895f6b598c01f14fd6056cad0274d41f73a639efd3d56f0005621.png is below the weekly baseline (21) Again a close above the weekly cloud and weekly baseline (21) is a positive. The Stochs indicate a possible run up to retest the upper trading range approx. 25 JULIE

  • Julie

    Mary The gofundme link is not working for me. ? ? ?
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Took a lady locally known as “skull Rita” to an ice fishing derby once, turned out to be quite lucrative……………

  • Yoda

    Still too early too tell, but it starts to look like bonds are going to get whacked again.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed00aed0ac122d207da068e65f51863f1ab41c9440b8d73864515d43b54a974b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    What are the odds 18 is R on April 18, 2018? It’s that kind of market.

  • HD

    Ha! That’s freaking hilarious.

  • Julie

    GDX Daily chart Overbought I prefer a pullback to the lower channel trend line and or the baseline (21) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2cb72712d8ee8c13db2b9fee15b33a2ff7ed80a232ebed499e847fe938e71893.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…I believe some sort of shock will be needed; the firm setting of debt’s bankrupting hook.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew today? Having fun?

  • Darkthirty

    She had a good time!

  • Julie

    Doing great Chief
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX Here it is again guys. The grind up to GG’S and my target JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cffba5d25046636412688b1d8fb86606d1a17ed28645e5f91a8d3599f5e70e80.png

  • Mary

    Are you able to get to the main page here?

    https://www.gofundme.com/professional-arts-academy

    It just worked for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Mary it’s working now Thanks!
    JULIE

  • Mary

    Thank YOU Julie. All help is appreciated.

    Pass it on …

  • Julie

    Mary It went thru
    JULIE

  • Mary

    OK. I’ll let them know it was you. Thank you VERY, VERY much Julie.

  • Julie

    You are more than welcome Mary. I hope everything works out for them. I know it will
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went short equities.

  • Yoda

    same here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    picking up pennies in front of a steam roller from what I am told but otherwise, alive and chipper

  • Yoda

    higher rates are headwinds for stocks, but we all know that already

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fine! stick with grenades. bloody stumps in 3…2…1

    https://2ch.hk/wr/src/384591/15028871142533.jpg

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Took the Cable trade and long ES at the moment. I’ve decided I’m over trading. When I’m up I either close the trade too early or try to jump to the other side. I’m going to invest in some trading psych books I think…

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    or these (by Scott). #6 comes up now and then.

    https://evilspeculator.com/arisen/

  • Julie

    USO A gap up to upper trend line of a parallel channel. Hmmmm ! Perhaps an island reversal. Going out on a limb at this resistance with a short probe (very very small position) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35fb1b505c528948354584731bbecf308e4bc0b72c3be608dd7f839067c829ae.png

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    careful.
    I’m looking at XLE. Could energy be set for a crushing upward run like December?

    RSI above Seventy.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69991874215

  • Julie

    GG USO Possible 3 drives to the top pattern from mid February
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Must resume work … For a while anyway
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah..third time into this volatility support zone since February. Steamroller seems apt, but no indication which way. Beware of belief.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Good stuff, thanks!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Self awareness while interfacing with our model’s weakness’ really is what’s its all about.

  • HD

    10 point hit from there. Sorry it took so long.

  • BobbyLow

    If you’re closing trades too early and or jumping to the other side too fast have you taken another look at your process? I assume you have rules for trade management especially for exits? One thing I’ve found is that one set of rules work for great for one sector and suck for another. Some time “one size fits all” doesn’t work for everything.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    https://www.420hippiehill.com/

    I see the smoke rolling out from my lvrm window and wait for wind gusts….

  • ridingwaves

    already there….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Remember our canary The Banking Index ($BKX) Oh ! Oh ! Not good ! I reshorted BAC at the close yesterday JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ff52a7b757110c337bf619e0bdfabd0c8fb777baf8461c4d7806a35c7831007.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Really? Didn’t someone try that already yesterday? 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BKX may catch a cold. RSI under 50, break out the Nyquil.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BKX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61850409379

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve said it for years. Zimbabwe.

    A Million dollar glass of water, is still..just a glass of water.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, it could go down to 59 and still be bullish….another spike maybe coming, 75 will be where a lot of bulls got off the bus and will have to think should I get back in, shorts will have to sell or margin city possibilities….so maybe they take it to 80 before a move back down to 60-65….

  • ridingwaves

    energy making up banking slack…..the bankers are celebrating the tax cuts after tax day….more money, more money, bring us your weary, your tired, your hurt, we will rebuild their fica….we will help them be good sheeple…

  • BKXtoZERO

    BKX…. TO ZERO! (that never gets old) ….. (for me anyway)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Then there is Macy’s Sharon ; Mary and my best friend … M Was watching carefully for a long . Did not take a position yesterday. However today a possible close above both the 5 and 21 ema’s Will monitor the close as I would like a close in upper quadrant of today’s trading range. Target 31 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c62511fec4e37fd90b5a36c30f21ffe528db9bd162790b8f0a134459e46155d2.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c62511fec4e37fd90b5a36c30f21ffe528db9bd162790b8f0a134459e46155d2.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t be hypnotized by the price and oh, be aware of the earnings date
    “Macy’s Inc is estimated to report earnings on 05/10/2018”

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah I know…damm models love em’ / hate em’.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Hi I actually only focus on SPY options at the current time. Fits my current budget better. Thanks though for the chart. One day, I will explore stocks and other targets for my Roth IRA. But not at this time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all that hard work for nothing?
    what’s a chat bot to do?
    -GG

  • Julie

    GG M A Stochastics trade with the 5; 21 and 55 ema’s in a bullish alignment. Also a bounce off the daily 55 ema. Just a trade GG
    JULIE

  • Julie

    As stated above will wait for the close and must be in upper quadrant of today’s trading range. Have not pulled the trigger yet. Will post if I do
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    biggest moves come before and after announcements.
    you should know that.
    😉

  • Julie

    Yes GG I know that Thanks Bro
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sure.
    If you want the full work up, Sharon will have to join the breakfast club.
    =P

  • Julie

    USO there is volume with this gap up and breakout today 13.71 is the resistance along with upper parallel channel trend line. I opened a very very small short probe. Tight stop
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO weekly chart Is it going to approx. 16 ? IMO No almost played out Negative divergences developing Weekly RSI ; MACD and Stochs JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2de7e0db35a102a7e71c5f6c2efc09d0053d6c2b260b20e4587b23594eac27c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    No Trader Left Behind

    NSFW
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPPaZU18rUg

  • BKXtoZERO

    There was a table full of folks next to me at lunch bemoaning the fact that their 401Ks were all down. One of them mentioned volatility. (he he he he) Little did they know they were sitting next to the Ayatollah of TVIX! Maybe they will be all back in black by next statement date

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Only 5 min to go and ticking down

  • Mark Shinnick

    Weird vibes this environment. Going flat from short.

  • Julie

    USO out on a limb very very small short probe They gapped it up over resistance 13.71 and upper trend line. Volume confirms breakout. We shall see tomorrow Tight stop. Other positions long ABMD and short BAC working and in the black JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c6fa1b33b8029bdc3506e02d981496485ee09d88befdbaf59d5d51fecf847ff.png

  • Julie

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Sure is… like watching news and wondering if any of it is the truth

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mercury Retrograde is over, relax!
    http://www.astrologyhoroscopereadings.com/2018-mercury-retrograde-calendar.html

    OTOH,
    April 19/20 is a very bad time.

    Google “April Is ‘The Cruellest Month’: Terrible Things That Happened In April”

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    only 2 more days to go. Thank Goodness.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What – you retire on Friday?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Great! Have an accepted offer on the house I’m flipping, and got started on the next one today. Took 8 days from listing to accepted offer. Local market is HOT… Pretty much no inventory in the 150k price range.

  • Mary

    where is that capt.?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Otsego, Michigan about 20 minutes north of Kalamazoo. Here’s the listing:
    http://www.michric.org/property/mls/18013351

  • Mary

    very nice … congratulations

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    What platform is that on?

  • Darkthirty

    oak trading – weboe, and I’m sure others It’s the midweek and weekend options. They expire on Monday-Wednesday Friday at 3 PM CST. You gotta roll out before noon because the bid/ask gets funky too close to expiry. Nice part is the time value is minimal. Great for scalping……

  • Darkthirty

    Bank repos? Used to buy at least 1 every fall to keep my crew together and keep their bills paid…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for this Gerb….. it has been a while since I (we) have been verbally assaulted as the pond scum that we are. Scott is always a good wake-up. This was a cold shower refresher course in reality. I have had a nice little time of late, and gotten smarter, but I seriously doubt I am in the 2% group who are successful longterm. I will be re-reading all of Scott’s posts.

  • Julie

    Inverted $VIX punching up thru upper Bollinger band and at a percentage level above https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d2396b435a11b7ca24d2ea5b42937fff6d8eb05278b402530f297858e567cbe.png it’s 10 ema presaging a likely pullback JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks. Lots of work, but my numbers work, and I exit the trade with a bit more than the planned profit. Next one will have other people doing more of the work, as I got in at a better price.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I look for them off market, because competition from other investors is pretty stiff for the bank owned stuff. Got this one through a friend’s employee, who’s mother in law was no longer able to care for the place. Needed a thorough upgrade, as she’d been there since 1975. All new plumbing, including main in from the city, almost all new electrical, and added a bathroom. It was ok to work on, even though it was built in 1900. Everything was plumb and level.

    Got the next one from an estate. Already sold the ’79 Corvette that was in the garage. It’s rough, as squirrels moved about 50 lbs of black walnuts into it via the ductwork.

    This next one will be a complete gut to the studs on the interior. Needs some foundation work, as well as to be jacked up a bit to straighten the roof line. Other than the old settling, it looks to have solid bones so far.

  • Darkthirty

    Tarpaper brick siding and a bad foundation always gave me a stiffy. Take a box of donuts up to the courthouse to get the address where the tax bills were mailed. Lot value minus demo cost. Made great R on those investments………..AND it was spiritually rewarding, if that’s possible

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    That would be nice, but no I get 2 days off.