Same Difference

I’m going to be super quick – have a lot more code to write.

Tonight I have two bullish scenarios for you. You know the count by now – the two I’m offering are only slight variation on the theme:

• Blue: Minor 2 of (A) of {1} completed this morning and we are now in {3} of 3 of (A) and should see a lot more upside. As you know I have issues with the upside but I’ve had issues for two weeks now.
• Orange: We finished {b} of 2 of (A) and are about to push into {c}.

I’m giving either scenario a 50% chance – which is another way of saying that I’m mentally checked out a little bit. This whole ride up has been extremely strange and it’s definitely not me being married to the downside – on the contrary. It’s just that we’ve come very far in a short amount of time and there’s a mountain of resistance lurking above. I have a hard time imagining how we can start a third wave right here. It would have looked a lot better had we started 2 of (A) around the 800 mark on the 18th. Also, a 1.5 day Minor wave 2 after rallying up for a month just doesn’t sit right with me.

Frankly, if we drop into Orange tomorrow I might pick up some long positions, but only if we touch 775 and even then I’ll keep my exposure limited. Perhaps I’ll even drop a few bucks into Fujisan’s spreads – with all that resistance above they might be the golden ticket for the next month or so.

That’s it for tonight – see you tomorrow bright and early.