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Santa’s VIX Buy Signal
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Santa’s VIX Buy Signal

by The MoleDecember 12, 2018

Santa checked his stock portfolio yesterday and finally decided that he was done playing nice. Waved his magic wand, which strangely enough looks a bit like a switchblade from certain angles, and poofff – we suddenly got a VIX Buy Signal on the roster. Which is exactly what I was waiting for and represents one of the reasons why I took out a lottery long just before the EOS yesterday. Thank  you Santa!

And here it is in all its glory. We do have 1) a push outside the Bollinger, then 2) one lower and inside, followed by 3) an even lower close. Per the rules this usually produces a bounce within a week, so it’s of course possible we’ll see another drop first. Which of course is difficult to predict.

The second reason was the Zero signal near the end of the session. As you can see it started to flatten out after that first swap above VWAP. Admittedly not a perfect entry signal and thus I only risked a small position.

So far so good however and if it continues to hold and and breaches ESZ 2680 (Dec contract) then we may be on to something. By the way, I am showing the Dec contract above but you should already be trading March, so if you haven’t already then make sure you roll into that one sometime this morning.

Caveat

Remember that we are in the 2nd bearish week of the year historically speaking, so I caution you against any large long positions here. The odds of a clean resolution aren’t as good as they used to be in the past decade.

Market dynamics clearly have changed and this is not the same bull market we enjoyed between 2009 into late 2017. So easy does it and don’t let hopium or calcified opinions influence your trading decisions, that by the way always applies to both sides of the tape, bearish or bullish.

The soybean campaign is starting to look pretty good now but I’m keeping my ISL in place until I see progress to 1R MFE. There’s also a roll-over coming and I plan take care of rolling both at the same time.

The USD/JPY campaign seems to be playing out as imagined and I’ve now advanced to the 1R mark. Not ever having roll over is one of the things I really love about trading forex by the way. It’s also a very liquid “market”, assuming you are dealing with a decent broker, I always recommend ECN or at least one that doesn’t run its own trading desk. I put market in quotes as forex isn’t really run as one cohesive exchange, rather it’s a collection of islands of varying sizes (and qualities).

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By the way we do have some possible volatility head out way as we’re being served the ECB interest rate decision early tomorrow morning (before the NYSE open). Saturday Draghi is scheduled to speak, so keep that in mind when carrying any EUR crosses through the weekend.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    Happy to have re-entered right in beginning of AH session. Your point about rolling over is interesting…would it be dependent on your individual time frame as to when one should do the roll over? As in if you plan on holding after the 20th you should roll now?

  • HD

    There’s been a few of these VIX buy signals this year. What’s the draw down points, return points?
    Someone should crunch the numbers.

  • Ronebadger

    I don’t show that the VIX actually closed above the BB on Dec. 7…my chart indicates a close just under the BB…BUT, I may be splitting hairs. Regardless, it wasn’t as strong of a signal as we’ve seen in the past.

  • Yoda

    Even in the gloomy 2008 there was a Santa rally, albeit small. IMO bears should go back to sleep until January.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8b6f6ad6c25a2b720c7400ba78591a69b4cd5220ed7b6e5f7b366115d5b99ab2.png

  • 1coin3lives

    Should, or will? 🙂

  • HD

    so nobody wants to sell this 30+ handle gap up? hmmm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GM,
    I hear Santa is a little under the weather.
    2710-2750? go for it. edit: just remember the last three soldiers that fell.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e035fed8e2148868a92a2825e7c5fa34c9eaebde4f53e86ccd8e8dc8d998ea6c.png

  • Sp00nman
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    1480 looks *very* possible.

  • Miguel Sanchez
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “There is very little left for a bearish cyclone in volatility.”

    para los que no hablan español

  • Sp00nman

    *fingers crossed*

    Your pal HYG is definitely supporting the bulls today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ‘cicho’ – nunca he oído hablar de esa palabra

  • Miguel Sanchez

    hahaha , un fallo de escritura, ciclo bajista.

  • maxcherry
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Like you? 😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Taking profits long … leaving 1/4 position on . I posted a target 2687 – 2691 previously Stop on remaining 1/4 2657
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max I have a level @ 2724
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Can’t ever go wrong taking a profit 🙂

  • Sp00nman

    A smart place to take some off at the edge of this resistance/low volume zone.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark the advances or bounces from 2800 have been held at the 60 min 55 ema which SPX is going up into presently and close enough to target posted
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    2717 .618 retrace

    2712 a=c

    from the dec 3rd high looks like an ending diagonal is forming , time will tell

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max 2717 and 2705 Also a target as is 2687 – 2691 Could even go to 2735
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    actually you can. but I’m not going to argue with ‘Spock’.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Totally can; beat myself up the most when I miss moves.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Holding it’s daily 5 ema at a resistance zone Overbought and MACD at a level where a pullback may occur Looking to buy a pullback https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4a4b4178619fc103b771d892662626f24453ce4b9e835f5784722ecfcefae84.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s why I’m liking halves & thirds.
    it gets away from the binary, and works in shades of fuzzy logic.

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51B7xo3pgnL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

  • TimeToPanic

    Afternoon all.
    Heads up of an event risk later today, here in the UK.

    The Conservative Party, AKA the Tories, have convened a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May.

    It’s only an internal Tory party vote, the full Parliament isn’t involved.

    Publicly she appears to have pledged support of over half the voting MPs. But one Tory MP revealed on TV this morning that plenty have publicly expressed support, but plan to vote against May.

    Margaret Thatcher suffered the same fate decades ago, and she lost too, in that instance EU-supporting traitors voted her out.

    This time, it’ll be Brexiteers primarily who vote to ditch her although even Remainers might vote her out, purely to give themselves a better chance of winning a general election in the New year. Typical political behaviour.

    The vote is between 18.00 and 20.00, results sometime thereafter. If she’s voted out, it would be spooky if it happens as SPX hits around 2700, once again proving that it’s not the news that moves things.

    An example, President Trump talked about big tariffs all through the summer, the market ignored the tweets. Now it doesn’t. Same news, different reaction.

    I’m still short, couldn’t cash in last night due to being out of UK hours. Expecting a 100-150 spx move down by Friday.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s a lot of energy ready to go, to be sure. I’m presently long and gunning for your stops.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Solid Zero signal thus far.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nibbling on USO small position Above daily 5 ema which has turned up and has cleared a down trend line . Appears to possibly be basing. Dumps below the 5 ema … Gone !
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a9f20443e855939db039939042631476369019503f409b143df11de9b9922ba6.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 48.6, also bought some DRV as a hold at 8.7

  • Mark Shinnick

    Get cover under that turban.

  • BKXtoZERO

    2583 to 2882 is 100 points ff the low… maybe a good time to give some back…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some measuring objective favors you there…maybe.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX from Monday December 10 intraday charts a possible ascending triangle developing if a pullback now approx 2680 resistance. Looking at all options with this crazy market Draw your trend lines Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys IMO Watch the 60 min 55 ema as SPX overbought 60 min and 10 min time frames. The 60 min 55 ema has held bounces since the decline 2800 as in a post below in a reply to Mark
    JULIE

  • HD

    SPX opened 2018 at 2683

  • BKXtoZERO
  • maxcherry

    SPY is up 1.65%, take out the opening gap up or down and its down over -10%

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/104a724fd6920f1beee12703dac6e70bdac2cc982e6f9e076a77a011fd5e8022.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX 10 min chart showing the possible ascending triangle developing in post directly below at approx 2680 resistance. The 50% retracement approx 2691 which is close. Again 60 min and 10 min charts overbought and going up into the 60 min 55 ema posted below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/931f0b3a69a53320d9bd8d6883e2b00e7bc84700375fd08d35199a9f062ee993.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the leads are weak

  • BKXtoZERO

    you got a lotta stuff going on there…………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Understatement of the year (no offense Julie)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually, I do – but I live in Spain.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Watch cable in the next few hours…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    those sto’s are embedded, totally useless.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HBO?
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Just remeber GG 2687 – 2691 is a target
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    IYR died 10 minutes after I got in…. he he he he. They saw my mighty Dodge emblem bearing down on them. DRV BABY!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/861c167a69f1f7281a66dc2d8965e84ad644786b12a5c391ff30c6d53d39bf4f.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Doing great !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Draw a lower trend line on the STOCHS Bye Bye ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    It is Christmas so bright charts not bad for remainder of December

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..perhaps.
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    If she loses, I wonder if sterling will dive or soar?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Also when STOCHS are embedded use a RSI (30) with a front weighted 6 moving average which is presented on the chart
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So let me summarize:

    – No confidence vote on Theresa May today.
    – No confidence vote on Emanuel Macron tomorrow.
    – Possible government shutdown in the U.S.
    – China arresting Canadian diplomat in obvious retaliation.
    – New terrorist attack in Strasbourg, France.

    It’s going to be one long winter…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No GG … Playboy Channel
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Messed up my NQ chart today,trying to use TradingView app on the phone. Every time I touched the screen a trendline or fib retracement moved accidentally, and I don’t have fat fingers either. Flying to Agadir, Morocco tomorrow morning for 2 weeks golf and rest.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX gonna climb this wall of worry Chief … ? I doubt it
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Both 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Jeezes – the thought alone is a deterrent.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You always do.

  • HD

    Is there a global index? What’s the ticker?

  • maxcherry

    $gdow

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO 11.05 resistance … Hovering right at resistance …. I know GG “Hovering” Expecting a picture UFO hovering from none other than GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max …LOL!
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    brings back memories

  • HD

    Here is the GDOW. Global Dow in USD. Down 16% at fibs. This structure would support a B wave back up. If it leads. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/134f95bc28eb2215b6c54b0e22f659ee95ffa993c2a9ead54a2a123af73a8a88.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    crude looks bearish to my lens, zooming out, this little consolidation around 50 looks like a diamond shape

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    Yup… Low 2583, just tagged 2683 now… 100 points.

  • HD

    What’s your experience with it Max? Is it relevant?

    Personally I think the SPX is king but globally it’s not looking great.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • maxcherry

    i dont think it is, i’d stick with the SPX also .

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Give a monkey a cue stick and he bound to make a ball sometime ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah I tried TradingView as well, wasn’t very impressed.

  • HD
  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I would get excited. but notice how he said ‘imagine’. That’s a different game than his usually wording.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sign up to vote? this is BS.
    I’d sooner send funds to a Nigerian.

  • HD

    Bk. I am in S against that same level. I keep saying walk away but I think w have a little surprise this year taking out the years lows.

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s ok on a pc, for free. Not good for a phone.

  • kim

    this thing it’s not near the end, but a time may come soon. Crash crash though! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ef5b27251878f09b6dbd815adbced6c6ecb44eb74fa1fc861c1d8d231ad39a7.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK DRV looks like a selling climax 5 days ago below support to rid the weak hands. Following day a pop back above lost support Now going up into 21 ema. Possible target upper channel meeting declining 55 ema approx 9.35 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6089b4b8d30c0152236f230eaf0c918b0c3aed36dc1ff9322b64ce03dbfeccda.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Nice chart.i just noticed some rsi divergences on NQ too. Plus lateral resistance. Tick tock.

  • HD

    I don’t make the rules. But good for you not having a Twatter acct. it’s a real shithole.

  • mSquare

    We can have you vote for us?
    My vote is 2800’s

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX intraday having a tough time with 2680. Let’s see what happens soon as price going lateral 10 min chart about to meet a rising 21 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As I type price lateral meeting 10 min rising 21 ema …
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG have you checked TIF today ? .. Unable to have a bullish close above 5 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG two inside days .. Yes GG THE TRIANGLE LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to LUnch!

  • Darkthirty

    Got anything at 2692?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes I do D30 2687 – 2691 posted below
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Moving stop on remaining 1/4 long position up to 2672 from 2657
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Thanks for all you do here Mole and Steel Rats. I have followed along from time to time for many years. Having been absent during the summer months I’m unaware what may have happened to BobbyLow. I miss his sense of humor. Can anyone fill me in? I know he lived in a flood prone area of SC and fear something happened to him as a result of the hurricane. FYI – something is different today as the market had been plugged to the AUD/JPY currency pair. It’s influence has weakened today.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL has not checked in for quite some time. His last communication to my knowledge said he was going to take some time off
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Thanks Julie. I do not like the bottom that was made. It was not a volume flush out and the William’s Percent R did not fall far enough for me on the daily chart. Banks and transports are lagging in this bounce.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted The Banks ($BKX) are definitely lagging Going to need their participation

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TimeToPanic

    Fun place to troll the commies though.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I think the VIX getting and staying under 15/16 is key for bulls if they are to sustain this.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Jason Tom Bowley a contributor to stockcharts states VIX 16 -17 is threshold in a bear market. Yes VIX must go below 16
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Hello,

    Market is in a strange position.
    My look at charts is that nothing can be stated at this point as to whether this goes up or down.
    It is mostly best characterized by Amazon, which is now what AMZN does, NDX does.

    AMZN exactly at 200 MA retracements from below.
    The future is not written yet, need to keep an open mind on what could happen.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?amzn

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX pulling back 2 pts shy of 2687 target 2691 was also target 60 min 8 ema approx 2668 Taking profits remaining 1/4 long moved stop up to 2672 but going out now Possibly getting ready to short if a bearish 60 min candle closing below 2668 (60 min 8 ema) and VWAP
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back.

  • HD

    I am really enjoying this pull back. 1/2 off VWAP 72

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m assuming VWAP has been assaulted like a back-alley mugging in Chicago?

  • Darkthirty

    musta been a power outage…Turn those machines back on!

  • HD

    Still feels majority is dip buyers. Very very few selling rallies.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD I am not impressed with today’s volume SPY Very “Poopy” Checkout the volume today HD Jack Poop !
    JULIE

  • HD

    It’s been a while since we’ve seen our friendly BOTs but they left their signature today. SPX open 2668 +17 2685.
    And it’s gone.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2687 target
    JULIE

  • HD

    I am not a fan of volume. Although I did learn some stuff yesterday.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ruh Ro……..

  • HD

    Nice! I had 2683. We have it surrounded.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good Job HD
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Here’s the channel Julie posted the other day. Notice the midline has been tough resistance both ways. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/685ea5cabf8c91a0761d4454f998e0bfcc267e197a4f129e1b94d36b71f39b27.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie, my target is a gazillion on this one…. this one is truly a hold. See these clowns in hell. This symbol is personal and I know that is bad…… but I have an old score with IYR.

  • Sp00nman

    What are the short holdings of DRV, is it similar to srs w/ a lot of commercial reits?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    whats the odds of a negative close ?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Short SPX
    JULIE

  • HD

    All out. VIX is still >20. Be quick whatever you do.

    Have a good evening all.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Must get below 2653
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    easier than Mole & Julie going to the dentist, I can tell you that.

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too HD See Ya tomorrow
    JULIE

  • HD

    2478 algo spit out. FWIW. Hasta manana

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bye!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that link is a bannable offense, maybe.
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    better?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m teasing. I value your contribution & inputs.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX love it ! Hint .. SPY volume today !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    chart!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Chart below by SP showing volume
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today going to close below it”s 5 ema ? Looks like it so far !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    another hour.

    there’s some reaction/support on the minutely (600ma).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Below 2650 pour the coals to it GG
    JULIE

  • Ted

    I doubt that will happen as TLT is rolling over and the AUD/JPY instead of falling now is getting goosed. Unfortunately, it’s looking like a stick save to me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m going to pull an old one out of the playbook from Scott.
    (hope he is doing okay)

    NO EDGE. Yes, flip a coin. I could guess. but it would be ‘just a guess’.

    Translation: you could long or short at close and win on luck.
    Homey don’t play that.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1805f8236bf38210dc202c44f78f1402c0a53710b7c569111a43dfb14289a403.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Load up the truck!

  • BKXtoZERO

    The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse of the daily performance of the MSCI US REIT IndexSM. The fund invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is comprised of equity REITs that are included in the MSCI US Investable Market 2500 Index, with the exception of specialty equity REITs. The fund is non-diversified.

  • Brishort

    Ok, At VWAP and 45 minutes to go. The next move is the one that will make the close.
    Zero is at zero as well and useful today.

    My take is the VWAP revisit comes from an upper BB hugging all day on Zero, hence retracement from this PM move.

    I am with Julie then, short and who cares about UK! Result should be AFTER the close

  • Brishort

    Zero 1 Min violently moving towards Zero’s low of the day.
    VIX not too far from day’s high
    AND SAR 30 min NQ broken down, hence short positions currently favored.

  • Brishort

    Current Zero view. Look left on hourly.
    Defining moment. Outcome unknown.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/326e2c4f911b9dceff14a39b4882ac6088114638b161379bc1359d63651eb6cd.png

  • Brishort

    Also Oil looking like hell. BKXtoZero had a diamond lower. It may just find a “ring” lower….

  • BKXtoZERO

    gonna git me some in the 40s

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bri, thanks for the blow-by-blow. whipsaw wednesday is next week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget the best day….Payday
    https://media.giphy.com/media/W11YhrZuVq6FW/giphy.gif

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Out of USO As stated a dump below it’s 5 ema Gone. It was a nibble and loss negligible
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    GG,

    Jokes apart, USD still looking like hell.
    If it moves lower, that is a lot of overhead supply in the short term to deal with.

    I am bullish long term, but we may get a strong pullback first before rocketing higher.
    With all the international headline noise, the conditions could be ripe for such trap move, confusing bulls and bears.

    Bottom line:

    Should it move any lower soon, target is on longer trendline and only THEN retest of high for breakout.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b70ebc0abc802cd264546e4509635bcf24fcd3e06fb7c8e5409e39a4d25c0727.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    absolutely, full hardily agree.

  • Jason13

    Brishort is right, right here is a make it or break it point…

  • Brishort

    VWAP revisit… again. ABC style action on 1 minute panel.
    Markets want May outcome I suppose, playing it non committal at VWAP

    The headline noise is simply the new problem of the market. Finance guys decided that the emotional gyrations of politicians were relevant gyrations for market movements.

    So much for ” FINANCE” guys when their investment decisions are politicians mind games dependant.

    Did politicians ever tell anything that was truthful and trustable as any actionable intel?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    More insidious, the News Bots are gaming the Trading Bots.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/26/can-fake-news-impact-the-stock-market/#344c826c2fac

    In 2013, $130 billion in stock value was wiped out in a matter of minutes following an AP tweet about an “explosion” that injured Barack Obama.

  • Brishort

    Thanks, a bit long so will read after market reading but definitively relevant!

  • Sp00nman

    Call me crazy but I don’t see today’s price action as super bearish..? We’ve gone 100 pts in 2.5 days. Looks like a pullback.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • BKXtoZERO

    He he he he he….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Saudi Princess gives birth to triplets .. World Rejoices ! DOW UP 3,000 points… All the Crap News Driven BS markets !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    cougars seem to luv it. (snort!)

  • TimeToPanic

    Just bought some ftse puts, before the vote result.

  • Ted

    I’ll say! A cougar with a Crystal Ball. No way would I bet against her.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    she’s really good. except for sparkly stuff.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    TVIX looking pretty spiffy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only if it gets above 56 in my book.
    but we both know, that can happen FAST.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p4456024524c

  • Brishort

    SPX P&F: A bit exotic as box reversal size is based on 20 periods ATR giving a box size of a bit less than 50 points.

    SPX is on notice that it’s playing with an entire year of overhead supply. 2600 was salvaged the last time, but the margin for error is extremely slim for bulls.

    No damage today though. May explain why the market is moved so much at night using futures for a gap up, since it is much easier to move said futures at night.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e6b4113eb69e4e93f0158a932c1f7375e31c836877aa7e08ce77baed763f159.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    come to think of it, it’s an inverse chart of the SnP!

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bye Cougar.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bye GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    No one can call anyone crazy in this shitshow. I’m leaning with you as potential pullback but i have no position right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Natty gas.
    do my eyes deceive me? is the rogue wave over?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a165e1a79a96336e059d19d8afa4a0417773c8a13ca5eb4eeb63c413081a5419.png
    “We drowned some shorts”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Break out of the Sesame Street channel, peak midday and fall to channel support/roof.

    Brilliant!
    (4 days, with action, but no direction)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de00bcc7fffbb552d9f497dab659008eb55783262fe35851a4ac9e92bfef468e.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I haven’t done any Elliott Wave counting in a long time…. so I figured I would do some analysis on TVIX…. a few fib extensions and a few ichi clouds later I see 5th of 3 at about 376$ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1dd6cad884f2e5cf3f15d3054681c59955824a4dcf3404926970c68ffb07d8d5.jpg

  • Jason13

    Not to mention a 2 month positive divergence on daily MACD and NYMO…there could be the surprise bull run of the year if it plays out…scary times

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Totally possible.

    most likely you will sleep-in the very day the train leaves.
    he he he.
    If you do get a seat, use the BobbyLow trailing stop technique for 11R.

  • BKXtoZERO

    For real? Bobby had some parobic rides using a trailing stop like that? 11….

  • Darkthirty

    Parabolic moves… Try a BTC layover on that

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What is ‘parobic’?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’d like to ski that chart. From the top 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did you actually bet any money on this?

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick
  • Darkthirty

    Did you see the Crowder video?

  • Wave_surfer

    Does anyone know what happened to Bobby? I haven’t seen him here for a while.