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Saturday Night Treat
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Saturday Night Treat

by The MoleNovember 8, 2008

Hope you leeches are enjoying your weekend, whatever devious shenangans you are pursuing. Just wanted to post a little comment cleaner as the Friday thread started to resemble a roll of toilet paper. For the impatient amongst you – yes, I’m working on the weekend forecast and it’ll get posted sometimes tomorrow. In the interim I have a treat that should keep you distracted. Two tips – first, skip the guy introducing Bob – he’s even more boring than my high school science teacher –Β  second, if you have an iPhone navigate to this page with it and watch the clips from there. The resolution is a lot better on the h.264 version – I still have not figured out how to get those in a browser.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Okay, this was recorded in 2007 and I think it makes the point how spot on Elliott Wave Theory has been in the last year. Robert is one of the best out there and we have learned a lot from him and his team.
Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Hey guys,

    I don't know for how long you have been following Prechter, but he has been constantly calling a bottom for at least 15 years. One day he had to be right. Back in 1998 I used to subscribe to his newsletter, which cost at the time $400 a month. It was the worst investment I ever did in my entire life and I believe many many others. He would just keep saying that the market would crash the next day, and he did that for months, even when the Dow finally broke above 10,000, then 11,000. I'm sure many subscribers following his convictions went bankrupt. Today his newsletter is something around $50. After I canceled my subscription – they still charged me for 2 months, it was in the contract – I realized how blinding his stuff was. It was like he was trying to convince the market that the prices must go down, or the market would be wrong. He would use any sort of argument to call a top, from sport magazine covers showing the stock market to the incredible increase in New York waiters salaries, to the announcing of a project of the tallest building. I saw him changing the wave counts so many times, until it became ridiculous. Now the market is finally going down, so he is popular again. IMO, his stuff is just useless for traders and I simply refuse to read or see anything related to him.
    On the other hand, your stuff, mole and berk, is way more interesting and useful than his. Keep up with the fantastic work on Elliott Waves.

  • molecool

    We are trying to combine traditional technical analysis (price patterns, trend/momentum indicators, etc.) with Elliott Wave analysis. So far I think we've either been very lucky or have found a good read on the market. I have heard it all about Prechter and he did misread the market way back, but also has been spot on in the past and is spot on right now.

    Personally, my personal view is that you can't 'predict' the market. Best you can do is to narrow down on probabilities, that's what we're trying to do. It's sometimes frustrating, and sometimes you're simply wrong, but in the long term it gives you a leg up.

  • gagelle

    I find the videos fascinating in terms of Robert's general knowledge and understanding of human behavior and history. I think his value is in his ability to correct common misconceptions about relationships between interest rates, commodity prices, and the financial markets. And he illistrates his arguments with very clear nontechnical examples that even a novice can understand. He doesn't claim to be able to precisely time the markets, but as moontrader states, being off seven years in a prediction, if this is truly the case, is a flaw that must be considered. Still, I find him an impressive thinker and one worth listening to.

  • old_lefty

    Moony,

    I couldn't disagree with you more. How about take his book “Conquer the Crash” written in 2002 that predicted to the T what is playing out right now.

    I follow his stuff now and it is a lot cheaper than what you were paying but I consider it the BEST investment I have made. I have some other paid subscriptions that I actually pay more for that have consistently been bullish. I guess it really depends on whether or not you really believe in in EW. It is a lot easier to make money when you are on the right side of the market and these guys keep me on the right side of the market.

  • molecool

    “I couldn't disagree with you more. How about take his book “Conquer the Crash” written in 2002 that predicted to the T what is playing out right now.”

    I didn't want to start a debate regarding Prechter but do agree with you. I own the book and the events he described are unfolding almost perfectly as predicted.

  • Duuuuuude

    I wonder if his time line was skewed because of all the leverage that began pumping into the market back 15-19 years ago. This leverage resulted in the economy expanding much farther than it really should have……a point he probably had overlooked. The consequences of the leverage is being felt right now.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Molecool there's this one guy that keeps saying VIX 105. That equals DOW 7000. You really think that will happen in NOV or DEC? Cause you called me silly, for saying that I didn't think that would happen.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    mole and/or berk, please email my yahoo account…headbanger51. Thanks!

  • gagelle

    The only person I've found to be close to predicting the direction of the global markets is Dr. Roubini. And even he never claimed to be able to predict short term moves. As molecool states, nobody can do that. But Molecool and Berk, to their credit, have been able to tilt the odds in our favor. In a game where most people lose money, this, in itself, is an amazing feat.

  • gagelle

    A good point–and nobody would have been able to predict the extent to which the housing market was pumped up.

  • malusDiaz

    Hey, something larger is moving as well: just a long term fyi: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/07nov_s

  • toad37

    Fwiw, McHugh says we tank hard ASAP. Then a little rally will follow, before next gut wrenching plunge.

  • Pingback: Robert Prechter « Sly Capital()

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Its great that Bob brings up Jim Rogers. Jim is great. He seems to be on Bloomberg alot. Anyway here is his latest clip on Bloomberg.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlwkNDj_YqM

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Prechter wrote Tidal Wave in 1995 and since then he has been calling the top. That's 12 years until 2007 when the top actually happened. But it wasn't him the only one to predict what is going on now. So many other prestigious economists and analysts did the same, way before him, some even warned to the credit bubble. Roubini is one who has been warning about the credit bubble for years.
    In the long term Prechter's prediction played out. I just think his newsletter is absolutely no better than the work Berk and Mole are doing here. But here is free, while Prechter never had the guts – or decency – to admit he was wrong at the time, so he was clearly abusing on the faith his subscribers deposit on him and his team. That's a valuable lesson I learned back then, the hard way. It's not a matter whether you believe in EW or not. It's a pattern as much H&S, or Triangles, or Indicators are. Sometimes they play out, sometimes not. The good trader recognizes the point when he says: ok, this is not playing out. Prechter, at the time, never did that. So, I repeat, I find his work just useless for traders and – to a certain extent – abusive for subscribers, while Berk and Mole, IMO, are different because they have respect and responsibility with their readers.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    guys, since I know there are quite some evil USDJPY speculators here, I have added a new treat to Retracement Levels website…

    yes, the USDJPY DAILY Odds Calculator

    I have added the USDJPY DAILY RL Calculators…

    go to the website: http://www.retracementlevels.com/
    and give it a try…
    let me know how it goes..

  • molecool

    Awesome!! This is going to be very useful. Thanks so much for doing this.

  • toad37

    Mole, this should really help your analysis of the market as I know you strongly believe in the Yen/US equities relationship. This is awesome!!!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Thanks for that 2Sweets!! Awesome indeed.

  • boomer55

    2sweets
    enjoying your emailed updates, thank you. Just to show how great his odds are. The STU (Elliott wave short term update) is thinking 885 on the $SPX for a fib relationship for wave D in the triangle.

    2sweets call on the weekly reversal is ————drumroll————— 886. Fricken amazing.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Mole & Berk, just wanna say you guys are THE BEST! Thanks for leading us thru the “murky waters” in the markets the past few weeks! ~\(^_^)///~

  • Ukla the Mokk

    If we start to head down, check out this sweet H&S pattern I found on a weekly chart of FFIV (not one of my regulars)…

    http://screencast.com/t/ad9qaLPwFo

    Cheap puts, tight spreads, lots of OI, and the ATR is about 17%!! I might just have to make this one of my regulars.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    friggin' amazing indeed

  • gagelle

    Thanks for the videos, BigHouse. Jim mentioned that he's shorting TLT and going long TVT. I can't seem to find TVT anywhere. Does anyone have an idea what he was referring to?

  • boomer55

    click on the tiger toon at his web site.

    http://upsidetrader.blogspot.com/

  • Ukla the Mokk

    2SW, allow me to echo what so many have already said: THANK YOU. This is truly unparalleled.

  • gagelle

    I'm still having trouble using 2sweets site. Do they still have their tutorial up?

  • gagelle

    Sorry, I found it.

  • molecool

    Again, rule #1 when trading patterns – do not trade them until you get confirmation. In this case that would be a breach of the neckline.

  • ablebonus

    He said TBT, not tvt. Just the inverse ETF for TLT.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    And Person's Weekly pivot support level 1 is… 885!

  • http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com beanieville

    geez louise. Someday he'll get it right.

    I say we gonna get the biggest bubble of them all – in alternative energy, within the next 8 years.

    And if i turn out eventually right even if 12 years early, i guess i can be god too.

    idiots.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Exactly…like I said…IF it breaks. πŸ˜‰ Of course, I found an important flaw though…the ATR was from a weekly reading, not a daily. Daily ATR is only about 7.5% of the stock price (stock almost at 24, ATR at around 1.80). I like ATR to be above 10%…the stock has to move. But I get warm and mooshy when I see a really nice H&S pattern.

  • Gary_L

    Good catch, Ukla. The neckline is sitting on strong support going back over the years. I have an ascending triangle drawn on the right shoulder. A breakdown through the trendline would be a decent play to the neckline.

    Thanks, I'll be watching this one.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Found Mole in the ESL class…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9TVYCffHEE

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    wise words Moon, wise words, couldn't agree more…

    Elliott Wave in professional trader's circle is called “the best wave count, after the facts”
    πŸ˜‰

    I find very interesting these videos because they show Prechter best ability: mass manipulation

    He's great at that, blinding people with a lot of theories and scenarios
    But he's useless in the real trading world.

    Our friends Mole and Berk, instead, they are useful. That's why I follow them.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    I have created something very asked for, a page with the the daily, weekly and monthly setup values for ALL existing calculators (except the DAX Index).

    This is the official presentation, just go here:
    http://setupvalues.retracementlevels.com/

    Every day I will post the correct values for all the calculators, plus I will email the link in the daily email to all subscribers
    (subscribing it's FREE in case you didn't know, just go here
    http://mail.retracementlevels.com/contact.html
    and ask to be signed up).

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    And someday you will get it right too beanie…someday!!

    Again, thanks for stopping by, I was starting to get a little worried.

    SkΓ₯l!

  • Growler

    Thanks for posting this.

    Without coming off as too much of a kiss ass, but after studying, reading, participating in the ideas / theories of this blog, I'm really starting to see just how intelligent it is.

    Kudos!

    And thank you for allowing me to participate.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dow futures up 157 overnight on globex πŸ™

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I've been taking a page out of Tim's book and trading them after they break the neckline and retrace back up to it. Very high probability at that point, and also very easy to set a stop. Topping patterns happen so often; it just seems like shooting fish in a barrel after you wait for the retracement.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    If you go to retracementlevels.blogspot.com, the tutorials are still up. The daily trade setups are posted to traders.retracementlevels.com and the actual calculator is at retracementlevels.com. And I'm in awe of how close this gets to the actual turning points. It also seems like the values tend to be past the regular retracement levels, so you're always selling euphoria and buying panic, which is beautiful in its own right…

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    That sounds about right, in keeping with the triangle theory. Down to 880 (after the uptrend ends at 960-ish) and back up to 930 or so and then down into the abyss.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dow futures up 157 overnight on globex πŸ™

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I've been taking a page out of Tim's book and trading them after they break the neckline and retrace back up to it. Very high probability at that point, and also very easy to set a stop. Topping patterns happen so often; it just seems like shooting fish in a barrel after you wait for the retracement.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    If you go to retracementlevels.blogspot.com, the tutorials are still up. The daily trade setups are posted to traders.retracementlevels.com and the actual calculator is at retracementlevels.com. And I'm in awe of how close this gets to the actual turning points. It also seems like the values tend to be past the regular retracement levels, so you're always selling euphoria and buying panic, which is beautiful in its own right…

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    That sounds about right, in keeping with the triangle theory. Down to 880 (after the uptrend ends at 960-ish) and back up to 930 or so and then down into the abyss.