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Say Goodbye To Paradise
54

Say Goodbye To Paradise

by The MoleMarch 21, 2018

I regret to inform you all that I have returned to Valencia which of course means that I am back to tormenting you all with my daily market musings. We actually didn’t venture very far from home this time as the tiny backwater of El Campello is located near Alicante on what is known as the Costa Blanca of Spain. The location itself is pretty nondescript but as you can see the ocean views from the house we had rented were absolutely stunning.

Here’s a panorama shot I took two days ago just with my iPhone – I’m particularly proud of that one.

The sun peeked above the horizon  few minutes later (as shown in the featured image), which is a rare sight for me as I’m not exactly an early riser due to my work schedule. And yes here in the East of Spain, unlike in California where I used to live, the sun rises from the ocean and sets over land in the evening.

I probably lost a good percentage of my eyesight shooting directly into the sun but I just couldn’t pass this one up. It had rained quite a bit in the previous days (yes, we are always this lucky on vacation) and the view the morning after was exceptionally clear with absolutely no haze toward the horizon.

Here’s another snapshot taken yesterday showing the cliff right next to our house.

What I and especially my wife enjoyed the most was the silence. The houses near us were all empty which meant that all we got to listen to during the day was the sound of the waves crashing against the shoreline. Now that we’re back in the tourist center of Valencia it’ll take us a few days to get reacclimatized to all the hustle and bustle around us.

Alright enough with reminiscing about vacations, now it’s back to work you slackers! I just took out a long position on the E-Mini – here’s why: I was gone for nearly two weeks and in the interim the E-Mini has gone absolutely nowhere. The current formation is coiled up the max with an increasing series of long wick spike lows. Which puts the odds in favor of the bulls but just barely to be honest. The bears still have an opportunity to inflict major damage and being biased toward the upside would be a fatal mistake.

My approach at this point is to stick with the current bias (up) but remain nimble enough to jump on a different bus should the bulls fumble this one and hand the ball back to the bulls. So that means I am long here with a stop < the last spike low. If stopped out I will wait for a retest and then go short, assuming of course the Zero play along (you are a sub I hope otherwise point your browser here).

Confirmation of the medium term bullish scenario will occur at > 2800 – quite a long way to go! On the other hand confirmation of the medium term bearish scenario happens < 2650. Which means the onus now is on the bulls to get out of this rut and drive prices across midfield.

Bitcoin snapped back rather violently after retesting the 7400 mark. Scott actually managed to buy near the lows and I didn’t see this one until it had pushed to 8200. Since then it’s been squeezing the shorts in a delectable series of higher highs and higher lows.

So this is looking pretty good IMO and if it manages to drop lower for a retest of the 25-day SMA then I’d be tempted to jump into the fray as well. One thing I hate about vacations is missing prime entry opportunities but sacrifices have to be made. Either that or shopping for a good divorce lawyer 😉

My long campaign in ZB over a week ago exited a few days later with a bit under 1R in profits. Not much to write home about but it paid for our trip and then some. But it’s now again getting interesting in ZB as price has reverted back to our old entry zone. The daily panel suggests it’s now in a make or break formation – drop much lower and it’ll turn back to the dark side – head higher and a massive short squeeze could ensue.

Cable is about to rip the Euro’s head off. I for one can’t wait. There may be another retest lower which I plan on taking advantage of.

And here’s my arch nemesis. No matter how many Euros I keep spending this damn chart just doesn’t budge. I need a more expensive hobby it seems which means I’ll have to raise subscription fees (jk).

Seriously though – look at all those long wicks on the weekly panel. It’s looking bearish but – and that’s a big but – prices have managed to cling to the current range. So the door is open here but the damn bears will have to step through it.

Otherwise the exact opposite happens and with a vengeance. And that means we could easily find ourselves near the 1.3 mark or higher. At which point I’ll be forced to significantly cut down on my nudie bar budget and that would throw the GDP of Spain into a tail spin. Not a pretty picture.

Not sure if many of you remember my crude campaign which was a long term in the making. I’m still holding this one and it’s increasingly looking as if it’s finally ready to grab the shorts by the balls and give ’em a good squeeze. Sitting pretty here and I just moved my stop to about 2R.

With a bit of luck this one pays for our next vacation – next time we’re heading to a warmer spot however. I’m considering to visit Scott in Bangkok in a few months and we plan to record a few technical Q&A videos together.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Ian Naugler

    Good stuff! As of 16 hours ago there’s about 300 million Tether in the gun and waiting to hit exchanges, the bank accounts for Tether showed a huge increase in deposits so this was kinda predictable. It’s just funny that we’re seeing a pre-pump now anytime Tethers hit the blockchain.

  • BobbyLow

    Glad to see you back Mole. Looks like you chose a great spot for your vacation.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield daily.
    sitting on the fence line. I’m biased to the downside, but need proof first.
    No front running.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37440f4dc596d13ad56560e071c7e00eda8af9e90372c96c9e9c2aa6a51d67bb.png

  • Yoda

    Mole’s “escape from Las Fallas” secret lair has just been discovered.
    Nice pad dude. 😉
    https://goo.gl/maps/rxQ7Lwwki6R2

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so much coin, so little time {sigh}

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Nice investigative work

  • Yoda

    The name of the village was the giveaway. Place looks like a nice scuba diving spot.

  • BobbyLow

    Happy Fed Day folks.

    How about Crude? It went from being comatose for awhile and then BOOM! I was fortunate to be holding a Long crude position via 3X OILU and to have opened a long position in XLE via 3X ERX yesterday. I had originally thought that I was not going to trade XLE anymore but changed my mind. I also closed out my Short BIO 3X (LABD) this morning for +.66R and will probably go Long BIO 3X (LABU) after the dust settles following the Fed.

    I got whipsawed a couple of times prior to yesterday trading Crude Futures and the fast and furious speed of money going in and out of my account made me think that I had better get back into the middle lane of 3X Speed. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always best to check why XLE jumped. this time…Oils. Gas is silent.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=d1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    WTIC was easiest trade of last 12 months, been in UWT since 12 sold 1/2 at 26 and bought 1/2 back at 24…

    ridingwaves Julie 5 months ago
    beware of oil, that sector could replace and be proxy for indexes while Fire-tech sectors can breathe some overbought
    the gap at 70-75 is going to be hit….it was written in stone 6 months ago….

    I need to go work for a big house, anyone have any contacts….will they let me surf after a big win….could have banked billions if I had a big piece of dough to blow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Close but no cigar 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks Bobby!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You seem to be quite involved in the whole cryptosphere. Care putting together a post once in a while?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you asking me? Because I took it weeks ago, literally…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See above…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So where IS everyone today? Not much of a welcome!

  • BobbyLow

    It is now 1:55 PM. Gentlemen and Ladies start your engines! The Fed’s Gun is about to go off.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shorting some miners. All so $-dependant.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Every month we have to put up with this…

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I do get a kick out of the pretty red and green lights going crazy on my computer screen though. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    after uncountable years, you think I’d be use to it.
    Maybe this is why bars after work were invented.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dude, with enough money. You could surf at work.
    (I know, nothing beats the real thing)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpbPTOq1_cc

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like it’s “same shit different day” from the Fed. From what I can gather from the Fed Economic BS Projection, Inflation seems to be in check unless you have to eat, buy insurance, get sick, and have to live in a home.

    Otherwise it’s just fine and dandy.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20180321.pdf

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The Market is like a cat.
    “It always finds the fence line”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd9688ba82dd1aa22c5560d19ea7665a2356c229ba5cba3b6a34f7eb6e21a0b5.png
    -GG

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Fed hikes again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BL, I don’t know you that well.
    but
    A) your pain has reduced
    B) you got lucky last night
    C) you imbibed some spirits.
    D) all of the Above
    LOL

  • ridingwaves

    I might try long Vix end of day
    Trump might announce trade tariffs on China tomm.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Speaking of pain, the only time I need my cane now is right after I get out of bed. After my shower and stretching exercises I can walk without pain so there definitely has been an improvement.

  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    Welcome back, Costa Rica next, just do it

  • Yoda

    hehe

  • Yoda

    *Fireworks* day

  • Yoda

    Go gold!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybee…still in some fuckery range.

  • BobbyLow

    WOW! I have no idea what tomorrow might bring but I am enjoying the hell out of today!

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Happy Wednesday. Welcome Back. Been out doing shopping chores.

  • Yoda

    same here. I love a good ol’ volatile tape.

  • Yoda
  • Yoda
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For fuck’s sake – I step away for dinner and Powell takes the market down again before desert. This guy is the cyptonite to the financial markets.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys are masochists.

  • Yoda

    I just trade better during a volatile and emotional tape.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice summery picture.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    3 candles clear out progress of 36 candles. This is why trading crypto is getting a lot more difficult now as the pros have entered the biz. Less confidence in the market and fear means more potential for repeated take downs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there should be support for the next few candles.

    the orange line 40sma, is now a ceiling in my book.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c31f34ec1431342af7b17b821d747ca28938a6a0d34e1eee33a814eaf5827c52.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger
  • Ronebadger
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Yikes. I am glad it didn’t snow in Virginia Beach again. That was really yucky trying to drive anywhere.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t miss that stuff at all Ronebadger!

  • Mark Shinnick

    These consumer stocks…. whew.