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Score!

by The MoleJune 1, 2010

The bears landed a major score today. The fat lady has not sung yet but today’s EOD drop occurred against a long list of bullish tail wind (I covered in exhausting detail all week) and was big win for the grizzlies. We closed at a pretty respectable NYSE D/A ratio of 3.63 (i.e A/D of 0.275). Not a bad day but we are no at first base just yet – for that we need the next support zone to be taken out – here is your updated road map for tomorrow:

I think the chart is pretty clear and I have highlighted all important inflection points for you. Again, I cannot under emphasize the meaning of this final candle down in the face of an overwhelming list of bullish charts. But my disclaimer (or CYA remark if you will) all last week has been that slides happen in oversold conditions. Maybe the Goldman boyz turned their trading bots upside down – who knows.

However, the bears are not out of the woods yet. Without a breach of 1040.78 Soylent Green remains a slightly diminished but real possibility. So, if you’re harboring puts or short positions (soon to be illegal if you leave it up to Bernanke) don’t get too comfortable yet – we’ve seen many overnight surprises in the past week and I doubt it’ll be as easy as straight down from here. But the odds have increased by at least 20% today.

One of the most fascinating charts today was my EUR/JPY correlation to the SPX. As you can see, the FX pair actually held up quite nicely. The question now in my mind is whether or not today was only a bear trap or if upside in the EUR/JPY has now a weakened impact on equities. If the latter we are most likely looking at SPX 970 – if the former, well then we should know pretty soon as Soylent Green has not much downside to play with.

As a matter of fact, the onus is now on the bulls to breach that center line inside Mr. VIX’ Bollinger bubble. If they do sweet reward await near the 23 – 24 mark (depending how fast they make  a move). If they let the bears manhandle them like today we could see 40 readings and higher in a jiffy.

Alright – see you tomorrow – same rat cave – same rat time 🙂

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • katzo7

    I want to Al Pacino this market.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – can you imagine him trading in the pits? 🙂

  • katzo7

    LOL Say hello to my little friend.

  • Farathall

    Katzo, what happened to UNG?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, you don't want to give him a bad fill!

  • katzo7

    UNG ~ 7.19 should be about the bottom of this corrective wave down, then up. Any lower puts call in jeopardy. My 7.54, I said 7.41, was the top of an EW3 wave (120 min.).

  • Farathall

    thx.

  • katzo7

    Big fall coming tomorrow, stair stepping down. Similarity in set ups.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • momac

    I have a question about options. If a person thinks volatility is going to continue to be high, but you're not sure on direction, could a person buy spy or iwm straddles first thing each morning and then through the day either sell or buy more of the calls as the direction calls for, and then sell out at the end of each day. Would this work? I always pick the wrong direction and get stopped out. Sorry if this is stupid.

  • tradingmom

    I don't trade multi-leg options, so I'm probably the wrong person to try to answer your question. However, if you think that volatility is going to be high, that basically speaks to more downside ahead, since (at least for the last 2 years) the vix is inversely correlated to the spx. So, its hard to go wrong with puts, whether its index puts or puts on individual equities that follow market action generally. Try to find something over extended…for example, I shorted THOR this morning since, among other things, it seemed over extended and due for a correction. It started to come in toward its MAs well before the big drop began. If you are getting stopped out this much, I think you might need to reevaluate your entry point, your position size, or your stop placement. Try something deeper in the money so if it goes against you for a while you won't suffer too much. Or, if you want to focus on volatility, try the VXX.

  • DudePlunger

    My 3 short (average @ 1078.25) are stressing me out–they are in the profit but I don't want to wake up with a fat loss on my hands as we are trading at 1085. I should close the position so i can sleep tight, but I like the downside chart setup, so I'm going to hold and stay up all night watching the futures. I guess I'll make my girlfriend stay up with me to keep me company :D.

  • katzo7

    I get 1080.25 as top of this move, an EW4 top (15 min.) Much above that puts my call in jeopardy. Watch creep on MACD on that time frame, it should begin to curl over at that price, just above the zero line. After EW4 comes EW5 down if this happens, a very profitable move, target 1062-65 tomorrow, Let girlfriend go to bed.

  • katzo7

    Target has come down to 1079.25 but $R is curling over now. May have topped.

  • psycho_puppies

    Katzo,
    I’m not questioning your charting ability or anything I’m just trying to clarify your message. 1st you said “Big fall commencing tomorrow, stair stepping down. Ultimate target 1025-28 ES. “, Then you said “target 1062-65 tomorrow, Let girlfriend go to bed.” 1062-65 isn’t really a big fall but is your 1025-28 a longer prognostication?

  • DudePlunger

    Hey katzo, I like the charts, but when you talk waves, can you can just say which wave 4 or 5 you're reffering to (minute, minuette, etc), I'm an avaid follower of the theory (part of the reason I like mole's site is because I think his EW charts are better than EWI.) But concerning this trade, I sat in these 2 short from 1082 all day, and I've let a 10pt profit on 1/2 slip away twice (one of my rules is to take 10pts, or at least secure 5 when I have 10 available.) So the mental anguish of holding this position for two days forced my 1tick stop, lol.

  • Clint

    They are going to try another rally attempt tmrw…in spite of today's close.

  • yudhisthira

    Copper approaching a May 25th low, slightly slowing a eur/jpy and ES bounce.

  • Tooncez

    As tradingmom says, make sure you aren't inadvertently making a volatility play. That is, make sure you understand how implied volatility affects puts and calls differently, and that it affects options differently depending on how In-(or out-of)-the-money they are (and that amount can change (volatility smile)).

    Also, If you were to look at other equities like tradingmom suggests, consider that in order for your position to move “the same amount” as if you had spy or iwm options, there is some kind of calculation to be done, but I don't have the formula right now (it's in a very large options book). Also make sure that the equity doesn't have too many risks you aren't familiar with. For example, non-indexes have company risk (think BP), and small companies with few options contracts have liquidity risk (you pay a huge bid-ask spread, or no-one is on the other side of your trade).

    In summary, think of all the moving parts you can get a piece of clothing caught in and know your risks!

  • Long_John_Silver

    Of course. Slightly green now in fact –

  • Clint

    Yea …slightly…as in barely. Asian markets are starting to go red…so maybe not.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Does anyone here have access to a Bloomberg terminal? I need the BAA corporate yield for a few weeks until my 'source' returns to trading.

  • Bob the Horse

    i do

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just some small comments on JNK:TLT

    FIrst of all THANK YOU MOLE (regardless of any critique one should always thank those that toil to bring something usefull to our attention)

    2. I can't see the 6 days advance, sometimes it seems on phase, sometimes there is a 1 day pre-warning, often we have “something” holding SPX when the top is already in (that's the lag you mention?)

    3. JNK:TLT seems to point to a 1-2-3-4 rodent band-wise (check sma13 that or a 1-2-i-ii)

    4. it would also point to 33 before 40 or 42 rebound (if 1-2-3-4)

    5. 33 is a minimum retracement from 20 to 45 (and could be the result fo a B wave)

    best regrads

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then do drop them to good old uncle mole, admin @ the site you love best 😉

  • Bob the Horse

    what format do you want it in? daily closes?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    bob, don't know if mole's around, but if you give OHLC it should hit the spot 😉

    and thank you sir for your sharing and caring

  • Bob the Horse

    having just checked, BB only carries closing prices.

  • katzo7

    Look at my chart I posted. Look at those 2 other U shaped moves. My lowest target is slated for the bottom, the 62 is for tomorrow or very soon. I see no up in the next days. Hope this clarifies.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then that should do… and once again on behalf of Mole and ES…

    a BIG THANK YOU

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sent you a mail…

  • Bob the Horse

    got it, ta

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thank you and good trading… have you seen my comment on JNK:TLT? that and my 19 on SPX:VIX and (maybe) a 35 on BPSPX are some of my reasons for hanging on to shorts since long ago

  • katzo7

    I run wave counts on all time frames I watch, the 5, 15, 60, 120, 240, day, week, month. What I look for is similarity in the positioning, from science of rogue waves I call it SuperPositioning. This is when waves stack up together and form larger movements. I look for this. I always provide time frames, i.e. “an EW4 top (15 min.).”

    I believe we are commencing the 3 of 5 (v on chart but missing a label) of 3 (DAY) [minute/minor/intermediate] hence my call for a steep slide very soon, maybe starting today (3 and 5 alignment), slight bounce at 1025 area, 5 of 3 bottom to about 1000 or a bit lower (900s). Again, I am ignoring the 5/06 spike down and counting from the next day.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • katzo7

    Good luck Clint.

  • katzo7

    I said last night “Target has come down to 1079.25 but $R is curling over now. May have topped.” Top was 1078 last night, it pulled a double top thingy at both 22:55 PM & 3:20 AM (5 minute chart).

  • Bob the Horse

    All about 1095 ESM0 for me. Above there, good. Below there, bad.

    Right here, nothing to do. If it can break and hold above 1095, it's a buy. If not, it's not. Expect retest and possible break of lows.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio
  • gsavli

    I am waiting on sidelines to see, how this thing develops.

  • chronographics

    Last time I was on the sidelines I got run over by the equivalent of a line backer, sidelines can be a dangerous place to be 🙂
    Watch the EURJPY and Long Bond. I am Long USd against EUR and GBP – again.

  • amokta

    Sitting on the railway line is safer – at least you can look out for oncoming train

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    sorry only getting our terminal next week.

  • chronographics

    Is that a light at the end of the tunnel or a train coming your way? Tonight could be volatile especially if the EUR breaks down. It has at beast so far managed some sort of sideways consolidation – a sure sign of weakness. If it starts to break support again we could see it move swiftly lower.

  • amokta

    Yes, im waiting for the Prechter Bear Express , but we might end up with Laurel&Hardy hand-powered rail-cart approaching

    Europe is down so far, but creeping up a little

  • Anonymous
  • WTFed

    Do you ever sleep?

  • katzo7

    What is that?

  • WTFed

    It sounds like you never sleep.

  • momac

    Thanks for the replies tooncez and tradingmom. I played around with the idea on the analyze tab at tos last night. It'd take alot of calls to make it worthwhile and the trading fees would hurt. I'll try to figure something else out.

  • WTFed

    Keep up the good work

  • amokta

    here we go 1070 look like a sitting turkey waiting for christmas!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    lets see what happens when we take out yesterday's lows AND approach the gap fill near 1066… A small headfake below 1066 is bull's last hope. And even if it bounces from there, bulls are not out of woods until 1096 is taken out IMO.

  • katzo7

    Doing nothing, just watching.

  • sela84

    hehehe

  • katzo7

    Notice the testing of the trend line on the 5 & the 15. When lower indicators flat line like this mid range, do nothing IMO. Spaghetti.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For those who read my comments, here is my underlying thesis: BOTTOM is IN… and we are on our way to new highs. The move up is not V-shaped because market structure has changed because of the crash that happened the other day. Support is being built here by trading in a range. I view this action as very very bullish. Very likely we will see new bull highs by late summer.

    Bears have the ST top targets at 1120, 1140 (IHS), 1170-75 (some moving average is up there)… I expect that once 1110 is taken out, massive squeeze will be on.. 1110 is about where we closed on the day of the crash…

    Look at the daily line (not candle) chart of SPX, you will see 1110 is a very important price level.. once that gets taken out, this thing will accelerate to the upside…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we're approaching bull's first hurdle…. circa SPX 1083

  • katzo7

    Trend line just broke. My thesis is bulls try all day to do something, it falls apart at EOD. I base this on my read of the EWs and underlying indicators. Sometimes it pays to be in cash, and wait it out. Will let you know if I change my mind.

  • n2thezonez

    Define new high.

    Are you of the opinion that we trade higher than 1219, or are you referring to a new high on a shorter time frame?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    first sign… r%williams 0, lazy hamster k=d
    second sign second williams 0 k>d (headfake or more?)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    third sign, >0 williams and rising (going for some kind of bottom)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Thanks for the clarifying question.

    I mean a high higher than 1219. The climb won't be as easy as the one from Feb-Apr. It will give opportunities both ways… Again I expect the ascent to be different because of a higher VIX…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    first sign for what?

  • DudePlunger

    I think you're flip-flopping a bit too much due to the choppy action. 10minutes ago you were saying, “lets see what happens when we take out yesterday's lows AND approach the gap fill near 1066… A small headfake below 1066 is bull's last hope. And even if it bounces from there, bulls are not out of woods until 1096 is taken out IMO,” and now that we are nearing 1080 you are calling for above 1100?

  • katzo7

    Yeah, SS Hamster, could you explain your terminology? Thanks guy.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    for a TOP, possibly HOD, but not sure about that

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I cleaned out that comment. I recalled someone saying that I should not comment on each wiggle..

    So, I thought I will just present the big picture that I see..

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    We could have completed a abc here, lets see if we break lower.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I tend to talk about different time frames.. I will make it a point to not comment about VST… VST being intra-day.

    I will limit my comments to ST (few days), IT (week to a couple of months)

  • DudePlunger

    That makes more sense. Thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry… I sometimes warn of possible tops or bottoms

    usualy using bollinger bands, stochastics (absolute values of K's and D's or D as support or resistance for K9), RSI and williams R%

    intraday stuff mostly… as for the settings I use i've already explained (and they can be setup easily on google)

    2 min chart

    BB 104
    lazy hamster fast stochastic 104,40
    fast rat slow stochastic 208,168
    R(at)SI 26
    Williams r% 26

    using the same with 30 minutes charts is also interesting

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely agree. Sometimes my best trade of the day is the one I don't make.

  • Long_John_Silver

    Hey MLMT, I've been following your posts with interest and appreciate that you don't mind going against prevailing opinion in these parts. Always important to consider both sides, and your contributions achieve that, a valuable contribution.

    For myself, the very sharp EOD closing drops a couple of times recently are a rough indicator that the pros (i.e., the bots, the HFT's, whatever) are ready to take the market down, but of course it's never quite as profitable to do it too fast, too soon.

    Meanwhile there's obviously a lot of cash out there ready to believe in the future of our country – yes, it's that corny, but there it is. In that view, any Big Fall, if that's what we're talking about here, would have to accompany some kind of systemic shift that would alter a basically positive mindset this year. Euro weakness has shifted that opinion already, but the stronger dollar seems to balance that on the positive side.

    That's human psychology, not robot psychology. Assuming a few humans are still at the controls.

    Hope this isn't too paranoid sounding, but the NY Times says that 70% of trades are computer-generated, lasting an average of 11 seconds. That's what we're wrestling with here …

    In any case, keep posting your thoughts – today you're The Prophet of Green.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    so 1082 might hold and 1058 (SPX) seems like an highly likely target

    shorting @1081 with a 2 point stop could be an interesting move

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    c=a @ 1082

    check!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the number on a 30 min chart would point to 1082.2, but the 2 min might force an earlier dropt, that's why i said short @1081 with a 2 point stop 1083

  • DudePlunger

    Thats a very good risk v. reward trade.

  • Tooncez

    I'm getting a nano divergence pointing down right now.

  • Tooncez

    (=ST)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Thanks for your thoughts.. All feedback is always welcome.. I did have an outburst a few days back.. I will make it a point to ensure that it was an exception.. Once again apologies to the Horse guy for the outburst.

    Keep the feedback coming.. We are all here to learn and grow together.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    the divergence did play out quite quickly I must say.. 4-5 pt dump in no time.

  • WTFed

    Google? Sounds interesting.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, i understood that it was for me, I just shared because the stop is tight enough and 1058 is just the first target

  • WTFed

    Nice call

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just use google finance and you can check it out …. after a while you'll have your own feeling for those indicators

  • psycho_puppies

    Yes, thanks.

  • amokta

    one question, if EDZ reflects 'emerging markets', then how come it goes up & down so much during US trading hours (i assume most 'emerging' markets are closed by US market times)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not good – in the long term this will catch up with you. Humans need 8 hours minimum.

  • Tooncez

    I should have said VST. For ST, We are riding a very light slope down on my osc. I am testng… it is flat now and very hard to read ATM.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes please! Kneed it for my BAA-TYX spread chart. Thanks!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamsters and wolves are known to have slept averages as low as 2 hrs per day on crazy chart munching months…. (but you are right, when learning we might need those hours, but for trading the added sleep avoids gut-mistakes)

  • Long_John_Silver

    Thanks for this, I've duplicated your view – on the chart I'm watching (SDS) the FSTO looks good for 'buy' signals, the SSTO for sells …

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    boss, i lreadt sent him your yahoo mail m*****@yahoo.com, do check it

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bob – if you see this- closing prices would be just peachy. Just for a few weeks until my source returns.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    RIG might be (or might already have) in the process of putting a capitulation bottom RIGHT NOW

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Are you signing me up for spam again?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I will add that what lends even more credence to my belief is that BP (the party that will get the worst fallout) is nicely green today.

  • Long_John_Silver

    It's not easy doing what you're doing, going against the grain here (for the most part).

    Emotions are part of the picture, always – actually I like to see them, helps me get a handle on my own.

    Learning together is the real power of this board – an expert network like this is rare and significant and I've been learning a lot, from all quarters. At the end, no matter how much data there is, we all go with our intuitions, our sense of things, but to get there one has to filter our what we 'want' to see happen. Tricky.

    But I always look to see what you're latest thinking is. thx, LJS

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't! always use fast AND slow , and get used to it before you use it, it behaves diferently on PPT time and on dump time… here are some guidelines

    K0% on fast is only a certified bottom when K% on lazy is <1%

    same for K100 for tops

    sometimes D vs K works as bounce/support zones

    always check you bollingers for better opinion and watch RSI for divergences and topish bottom values

    etc… just feel it

  • Long_John_Silver

    That's new for me too, just investigating the tools there. Not crazy about the graphics, but it's not hard to access.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not before 44.6…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ungrateful master, i sent as a private mail your adress so you could have your bloomberg data (and no spam)

  • Long_John_Silver

    hiker on BlueChipBullDog points out that the recent cross of S&P price action below the 10 month EMA is an important signal that sellers are in control. Since June/July 2009 prices have been above the 10 month EMA – until the recent period.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and it's flash

  • Clint

    You might be right about the bottom being in…but I'm not with you on the new highs this summer. But you've got me watching the 1110 level.We shall see.This market is still very vulnerable to ANY unexpected negative developments in the world and is very comfortable going back to 10,000 at the drop of a hat. Tough environment…at least for me it is.

  • katzo7

    Absolutely and the 20/50 cross too.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    either we just had the headfake of the week or it will go to 1089….

  • Bob the Horse

    sent it earlier in an excel file.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thank you once again… did you use the yahoo mail?

    and did you register mole in that site with leather clad pretty girls?

  • katzo7

    Short ES @ 1080.75, SL HOD, may be VST trade.

  • WTFed

    Mole-

    Any thoughts on that wild & crazy ZL?

  • Bob the Horse

    have signed him up to a paedo ring.

  • sela84

    great i am short from 1080.50 🙂 good to know. do you have target?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice divergence on R(at)SI on that last high… HOD may be in…. still have a problem with that last W%R…

  • katzo7

    Zero. lol. Let's let this play a bit longer, then I will provide.

  • sela84

    ok see you then at the floor 1000 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just corrected your post, that's what you meant, right?

  • Tooncez

    osc says VST div down again…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ALL ABOARD!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Hammy dude.. is there a guide book to understand your speak

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I bought my ticket last week…

  • katzo7

    She kissed the top of my channel on the 15 (see my prev. chart), also nice doji there too. Time wise this may be a bit early, like the 1 to 2 PM time better for entry but indicators rolling over. I also moved SL up to 83 to protect position as I see multiple EW tops on multiple time frames. I know, I know, never move a SL.

  • tradingmom

    SL?

  • katzo7

    Let's let it turn first.

  • jigdaddy

    perhaps we are about to form a right shoulder on the lite?

  • Long_John_Silver

    Stop Loss. I'm keeping a lexicon for the acronym-impaired, which includes myself. Lot of shorthand around here …

  • tradingmom

    On the 5 min BAC chart, I see a trendline broken to the downside, with a retrace, kiss of death, also trapped by the 50 MA. Looks to break to the downside NOW.

  • tradingmom

    Thanks, sorry. Should have figured that one out myself!

  • katzo7

    stop loss

  • Tooncez

    I think that last firecracker was a dud. I'll stop posting about it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i heard raise by wolves keeps one… you might try and borrow it 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Nice!

  • tooshort

    that would be a divergence in the ZL, correct?

  • katzo7

    Stopped out. On to next trade.

  • Tooncez

    Great, now it's double div down.

  • Tooncez

    Is it too early to call that?

  • jigdaddy

    daytraders must be loving this shit….25-30 point swings every day

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    PPT in the house… so confirmed it hurts…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It is best to call a divergence AFTER the ZL has turned down i.e. worst case you will have to wait for 10 minutes AFTER the high is in.. (two 5-min candles on the ZL chart)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    watch out for mother of all short squeezes in ATPG… This one REALLY got killed over past 2 and a half trading days.. cut in half I think

  • tradingmom

    Sorry — I'm out. It broke over the 50 MA and seems to be making a new channel that I don't like.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For those looking for bearish evidence, I will point out WYNN & IYR.. Usually they are 2-beta names at min… and today they are barely up even when SPX is a good 1-1.5% up.

  • tradingmom

    It looks like we reached the top of the trendline Mole drew in yesterday on the ES 5 min chart.

  • skynard

    Maybe more June/July calls would be in order.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    June calls will likely have premium going thru the roof.. July may be better – I haven't had a look yet

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I think the downtrending line which has rejected the bounces over past few days is where we are .. and that is causing the pause.. can't think of any other reason why market would stop here in the middle of nowhere.

  • fuw

    Also note the change in TRIN from yesterday. Yesterday we stayed at or above 1, slightly trending up, with an afternoon spike. Today we are firmly stuck in bullish territory and if anything trending down.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For those looking for divergence, we may be about to get a teeny-weeny bearish divergence on ZL… unless we get a nice sized push in next minute or so (before 12:10pm ET)

  • tradingmom

    Anybody else think this whole up move on the ES looks like a really steep rising wedge that is close to breaking?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Take that back.. no divergence yet.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I understand the rising wedge part.. but why do you say close to breaking?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    k100% on fast… upper bb touch… TONS of W%R 0 retrace time

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    A pullback will be expected here.. regardless of where the market is headed in VST (VST = by EOD today)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, it's a typical PPT move….

  • katzo7

    Short ES @ 1085, SL 1087. plz be careful I am doing small positions.

  • DudePlunger

    Here's a regression channel from our all time highs– http://i46.tinypic.com/lgkme.jpg

    A few high tails off the 87-90 mark during lunch time and another late day selloff would be nice for the bears. A close above 1090 would increase the odds of a move to and above 1100.

  • katzo7

    She is correct IMO.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and SPX:VIX is once again trying to find a foothold above ma13….

  • BobbyLow

    I added some July SPY 110 Calls and July IWM 66 Calls. VIX down 10% and I'm getting killed on my Long Term Spy Put Vega.

    If we close weak again today, I'll probably take some of the Calls back off.

  • fuw

    Yes it can be seen as a bearish wedge, but I would wait until it breaks down to base a trade on it. It could just as well break to the upside.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am not saying she is wrong. It wasn't clear to me – so I asked for a bit more explaination.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    All of last year we saw a TON of bearish wedges esp last summer.. break to the upside.

  • elliott_surfs

    uptrend, we are now in a downtrend

  • elliott_surfs

    Katzo, indicators say down, but that looks like a bull flag. Thoughts?

  • elliott_surfs

    PS – short as well around 1085

  • Tronacate

    Weak names

    WYNN, RL, PCP, BXP

  • fuw

    exactly my point – look for break outs and use those for trading. The bearish wedge only represents a potential pattern, until it is confirmed.

  • Tronacate

    EURJPY……bearish rising wedge with divergence on macd

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Look at ATPG – wow

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    ES seem to have broke the wedge…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Rule of thumb for lottery plays – always play very very small.. so that if you dont hit the jackpot, you still come out unharmed.

    Think of it this way: if you were to go and buy lottery ticket tomorrow morning, you are not going to empty your bank account and buy lottery tickets with EVERYTHING that you got. Same logic applies here as well.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I will add that Jul calls are a better play than Jun calls

  • Tronacate

    APOL showing weakness here

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Thanks.. the usually strong names if weak on an up day are good to keep an eye on. If these names stay weak, then there may be reason to suspect the up-move. If however, they also start moving up, then it means that up-move may be a stronger one. Good list to have – thanks

  • WTFed

    sharp turn on the daily zero.

  • Tronacate

    AAPL looks weak

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    AAPL was up big 1.5% yesterday when ES was down 2% and NQ was down 1%

    This is called rotation and/or mean-reversion depending on how you want to look at it.

  • katzo7

    If I am seeing this correctly we might be very close to the end of the move up.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    This is where rubber meets the road.. a push above the that line that Mole has drawn will invite lot of buying IMO… Of course, open mind says that it could be a fake out too.

  • katzo7

    If I am seeing this correctly will come down fast now. Plz be careful, stopped out but considering . . .

  • jigdaddy

    did i just get that head and shoulders on the zero lite? right shoulder is still forming…

  • BobbyLow

    I could be wrong but we've been slowly grinding upward all day. Usually when that happens we tend to close strong.

    Also Zero has been stretching the upper 2.0 SD on the 5 ES and on the 15 Min, Aroon is Strong, Williams very strong (over bought but can stay overbought).

    It's still early so anything can happen though. 🙂

  • katzo7

    Valid points Bobby, we will see. Bull market or bear market.

  • Tooncez

    Now how about that for ZL div?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1082 was the good one, this ride is not TA bound

  • Tronacate

    EDU just put in a large dist bar on 21min chart

  • skynard

    Pos Div on SPX 15min, bullish crossover and held support @ 20ema for backtest. See what happens?

  • BobbyLow

    Look out for head fakes. Price is still 6 Points above VWAP on ES.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1082,3 was resistence, now it's time for PPT to make it a support

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Yup you sure got one..

  • Tronacate

    BXP heading for lod

  • WTFed

    Who turned off the market?

  • katzo7

    Possible BRD within 15 min. if not this is not gonna be that easy.

  • DudePlunger

    I just got short 1 /ES @ 1083. Zero lite rolling over a bit, we bounced off bigtime resistance I have, so I figure it's a good time to slowly leg into a position.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My bad – I tripped over a power cable. All good now.

  • Falcon

    If you missed this from earlier….Junk vs Treasury (mutual funds…should give same relative picture???)
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=

  • dingos

    Nice call!