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Setup Bonanza
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Setup Bonanza

by The MoleDecember 2, 2016

Friday is usually my least favorite day to take on new setups, for obvious reasons, but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m glad that things are finally starting to come into sync across the board. Plenty of juicy setups today and I’m confident even Hoss won’t go hungry tonight!

2016-12-02_spoos_setup

After yesterday’s sell off the probabilities at this point favor the short side. As you may recall what we are looking for now is a tepid push toward 2190ish followed by a bit of weakness (and perhaps a divergent signal on the Zero indicator). Should that scenario transpire then I’ll be taking on a short position with a stop above 2200. Nice round number.

2016-12-02_6e

If you missed out on not just one but two EUR entries in the past week then this is probably your last opportunity to hop on board. However bear in mind that Italy votes on a crucial referendum this weekend and if they decide to exit this one may just fall into a hole in the floor. Since you’re probably American and probably have no idea what the heck I’m talking about let me get you up to speed. BTW, I freely admit that I lifted this off of ZeroEdge:

On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy’s constitution. A YES vote is a vote of approval for Renzi’s government. A NO vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels. Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it’s very likely they’ll do just that.

So understanding the stakes involved I STRONGLY recommend that you only take out teeny weeny position sizes ahead of the weekend. And if you’re a retail rat with limited funds then you may want to play options instead. Instead of the E-Mini futures buy some SPY puts or a spread (but you would mostly miss out on an explosion of vega) – on the EUR above you could buy 6E or FXE calls (or sell them if you’re convinced Italy decided to go back to the future).

Alright, more setup goodies lurking below the fold. You know I’ll keep bugging you so you may as well sign up for Gold or even better the Zero right now:

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aying

Actually I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be able to post my traditional German Hefeweizen on Fridays as at least one German city is now permitting a ‘Sharia Police’ to roam its city center. I kid you not. Actually I spent some time in Wuppertal as a kid and it’s always been a dump to be honest. Their claim to fame always used to be what they call their ‘Schwebebahn’ – a suspension railway, which is pretty cool but a little disconcerting when it rattles along right above your head. I like my tramways where they belong – on the street where you can get run over by them the old fashioned way instead of having them fall on your head out of the grey*.

Prost! Have yourselves a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday morning ready to face the Euro-pandemonium.

*Blue skies are rare in Northern Germany


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    I’m guessing you have to get into the mountains for any blue skies, huh?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • OJuice

    Sharia Police in Germany… wtf

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its been 3 generations since…so timing seems about right. Long miners.

  • Tomcat

    Mole,
    Take it easy on me, I went long @2190 yesterday. So please show some mercy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You recall that the plan was to go short if we dropped below it. Not the first time I’m posting a binary setup. I adjust when conditions change. Hope this makes sense, otherwise take another look at this.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pretty much, one of the reasons I left Germany. The weather was depressing the heck out of me. And the people :-/

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope she’s got a license for those.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    She’s gonna poke somebody’s eye out.

  • Tomcat
  • Mark Shinnick

    Eye-for-eye…is that a claim in Sharia law? Bitch slappings in the streets?

  • OJuice

    Same reasons I left Vancouver essentially. 9 months of depressing weather is just too much. And also the property bubble from the uncontrolled flow of money out of Asia…

  • Tomcat

    Unfortunately I have been out for a week or so and I when I made that trade yesterday I was sipping a mojito with no chart to show for 🙂

  • StockTalker

    Still a bull market, /ES above 2200 gets her back on the road.

  • ridingwaves

    I volunteer to help her out in line if she comes into the GMV….

  • ridingwaves

    or it busts thru that trend line…..I’m long and might add if it does get thru that line…

  • ridingwaves

    raises hand quickly…..I volunteer for the eye poking test

  • ridingwaves

    study buying of miners this morning..

  • Tomcat

    Fair point, actually a friend of mine pointed the huge backwardation in $NATGAS which made me a buyer of the Sep18 contract $2.84, if that continuous lower, I will keep buying to build a full position

  • ridingwaves

    In trumpconomy it might burn bright for some time….but whom knows outside of the almighty trailing stop….

  • Tomcat

    Speaking more broadly, I don’t see how the Fed has any other choice but to continue to be dovish. If Trump remains true to his words, he will spend a fortune in infrastructure and being the leverage man that he is, he is gonna want to finance it cheap, so while japan, germany, or EU in general has close to ZERO rates, US cannot afford paying 2/3+%. I think this is very bullish for commodities in general and perhaps even S&P short term…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Speaking of Point-and-Figure charting – a method to disregard time factor, which is usually interpreted as a very long term price analysis. But really, PnF plot is a fantastic tool to isolate an important price movement and allow a more focused direction of funds to some of the best opportunities for immediate investment (time frame weeks- to months).

    Observe a chart below – the final run-up and 20% correction spanning about half a year on (not so boring) utility stock EXC. The last 3 columns – not boxes, but entire columns of X, then O and then present X – where made in less than a week.

    Be mindful of still present down-target some 10% below. I can see that that will get canceled and reverse above 33.70, with re-opening of prior targets … 10-15% higher from here… and a divi while market sort this out.
    FD: no position, but its one of many on my watch list
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d27ec760fea9afceb8ccc9fa80d4510d5ef0d6e1f7e40615e38987f7daed00a7.png

  • ds2
  • StockTalker

    Added at VWAP, currently 2R exposed

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    You got it all tied up neatly and got yourself a forecast (I used to do that too 😉

    But what if all this works out not like that? What if its an opposite, or worse… not at all? What if you follow a wrong assumptions?
    Are you ready to bet really money on that?

    What if … what you think is a common knowledge… is really not…
    Read:
    http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-days-of-green-eyed-men.html

  • kudra

    GDX 21.50 resistance holding so far. Going with this for long term outlook:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=GDX,PWPBWAYRBO%5BPA!B5%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!1.0!!2!20]

  • ridingwaves

    well, they are hitting it damn hard, trnd line wins

  • StockTalker

    Every rally getting slammed, flipped to short

  • Tomcat

    Too many questions there…not sure I an intelligently answer them all.
    But I am L OCT18 $NG and covered my Jan contract.

  • captainboom

    I have some other poking in mind…

  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    I keep staring at that picture and totally understand.
    but the test would be unexpected happiness too

  • StockTalker

    gap fill coming @ 2080

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was out for a few hours – seems like I could have gotten a better entry – grrrr…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where you have YOU been?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just hold the chart sideways and it’ll all make sense to you 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    That Zero looks exactly like my portfolio total today… i got over 30 positions on…

  • OJuice

    The standard Friday flat line.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    PnFs always get an upvote here. Anyway, it’s heading toward a volume hole though…

  • Tomcat

    Tried that…and spilled in my lap

  • ridingwaves

    for the bears ! currently wedged between 50-200 on VXO daily, some gaps above are interesting…the first time, was twas a ripple but the rest of the vxo cross’s on 50 were pretty good runs….what say you mr. market…
    https://s12.postimg.org/ihc3b5nnx/VXO_50sma_approach_daily16.png

  • Billabong

    I’m surprised bonds rallied as much as they did earlier today considering the Italian vote this weekend. If Italy puts another nail in the EU coffin, the $ will strengthen. I’m going to hold off positioning myself on the long bond until after we see what the pasta reading tells us. Likewise, I have one long position in a money center bank with tentacles into the overseas bond markets….

  • Billabong

    SI up almost 2% for the week and GC the laggard down $4 (noise at this price level).

  • Billabong

    LoL.

  • Billabong

    EOD: GC down less than $2.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sooo…. he’s dead?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..pullback to test support at 2188.

    Always obsessed with my counts –
    My infamous 110 chart may change. To 106!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03d84b7f6ce3036f00d5b08ba6c54fa855e07fd56648a394d0d79c1f495d42a4.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Ladywandering

    Off to the ATM you go

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NOT ANYMORE!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III