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Setups!
88

Setups!

by The MoleJanuary 21, 2016

We’ve got a nice selection of setups this morning but let’s catch up with equities first. There was follow through overnight but as emotions are running high and bear avatars are in short supply we’re now descending lower once more. Very productive actually as we just may be building an intermediate base here.

2016-01-21_spoos_resistance

The short term panel is now suggesting resistance near ES 1890 which just so happens to line up perfectly with a brand spanking new NLBL on the daily. So if we drop a bit lower today and the Zero is favoring a drive higher then that would be my target range. However if we run today then 1890ish is where I would start looking for a possible reversal. We’ll revisit that subject if it comes to that.

2016-01-21_AUDNZD

Okay, I promised setups. AUD/NZD – here I’m waiting for a dip lower to grab some long exposure.

2016-01-21_AUDCAD

AUD/CAD – long already with a stop near the lower 100-hour Bollinger. UPDATE: My stop at 0.5R was just touched here. I’m still fiddling with the campaign logic onΒ my Discretionary strategy. Advancing to 0.5R is supposed to happen a little later actually so I’ll dig into this later tonight.

2016-01-21_EURUSD

EUR/USD – that was quite a wipe out – thank you Mr. Draghi!! However I am actually looking for long exposure here as well but will need to see a drop below 1.08.

More setups waiting below the fold…

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Darkthirty

    QE 4 already?

  • Round we go

    4hr. es. rsi still not crossed the 50. holly shit!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out at 1865.75

  • Round we go

    nice ride on the rocket πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    1879spx will be a little tough to hurdle….unless performance enhancing trades kick in..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    maybe it grinds into 50 like the Tuesday before last..

  • Round we go

    hilarious πŸ˜‰

  • Round we go

    xiv and zbio getting fisky

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looks like it. If it takes a breather down I will grab another scalp.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m set with xiv at 16.40 buy in…just scalped TVIX at 1980

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Spoos 1868, 30m
    RSI at 60.4 break higher with upper channel 1885 likely.

  • Round we go

    scalp? thats a swing no? or you meant 1880?

  • ridingwaves

    just interday quick hit

  • Round we go

    if 1885 is likely then 1910 is likely :0

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    nonsense.
    fibonacci 38.2% at 1906.86
    ;-D

  • ridingwaves

    bulls have the force with them now…much stronger in mind I say…anger, fear, aggression inside them…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Round we go

    oils up big huh.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Seeking a close in SPY 190+ to stay long overnight. If not, will trim down longs a lot.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    VWAP question. Anyone know the parameters if you want to chart it on the hourly in Stockcharts?

  • ridingwaves

    spy program kicking in..but which one.. .1870 seems very important interday, a buy spy short vix bot seems to be in play there

  • Round we go

    anticipation

  • Round we go
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    yeah, 1870 is/was a channel ceiling in my lens.

    http://s23.postimg.org/9plo8afej/anticipation.png

  • Round we go

    long tqqq 85.30

  • Round we go

    hallelujah, praise what pagan god you worship. 4hr rsi over at 52.

  • ridingwaves

    seems like all is good now in the world, time to enjoy the sun…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Speaking of setups, I bot JNUG this morning… still setup for some decent motion.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    that’s about where Monday’s top out occurred.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Short NQ 4184.50

  • ridingwaves

    lift us black gold, we worship your crudeness!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD22a4APsCg

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    out at 4179.50

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Well, that 1890 level has been hit (SPX hit 1889.85 to be exact). A possible fail here, Zero produced two signals. If not here, then 1900 and beyond. Going to hit the gym now, scalp you all later!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Huge shooting star yesterday on DWTI 3X reverse oil so magnified but it said a bounce was a comin…… how far who knows.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    notice the last kiss good bye on the RSI 30min,

    hindsight is so cool, sometimes.

    http://s2.postimg.org/yibzgpve1/DWTI_Jan.png

    (yes, I know, you can’t drive looking in the rear-view mirror)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    the leads are weak, I’m going to lunch, in my Hyundai.

    http://s29.postimg.org/nwms40j93/leads_weak_30min.png

  • Darkthirty

    When the pump is shut off, the ES falls. Short squeeze still isn’t working….what could possibly be wrong??

  • BKXtoZERO

    I’m giving them til end of day. do something or else……….. weekly candle needs repair so they gotta get a move on in my view.

  • kudra

    bulls running low on juice? These are not the same bulls we’ve been accustomed to.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm right.

  • Darkthirty

    bots are running this, I use 4 different systems and when they aren’t responding appropriately, just go long and pull out on short signals. All short signals were overrun till 11:00. Broker makes good $ on days like this!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I got stopped out of longs. I have been sliding up the stop all day which was pretty tight. I was expecting more strength today. Disappointing.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Gonna wait and see what happens in final hour. Looks kind of murky to me.

  • Darkthirty

    1880 was .618 of 3 retrace but no overlap of 1. Could be ii of 3 or 4. Alt is we’re in b of c of C. Next downside DJI target 15250. If b of c of C 1904.3 ES

  • Mark Shinnick

    Vol cash uptrend line still remains intact. TVIX still technically viable for re-loading.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yup I have daytrade short on now in SDS

  • Kato33

    Great mole signal on the zero. Short ES at 1882

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I just had this little epiphany reg. the Mole reversal signals – maybe it’s nothing. So usually what one may do on an up arrow is to take a long position afterward. That works great in sideways days but in trending days the reversals are being overwhelmed due to the strength of the trend.

    Now, what if we would reverse positions in these cases? The green lines show where one may go long and the red lines where one would get stopped out (i.e. the low of the candle issuing the arrow). If we reverse for short positions there then that would have actually worked pretty well!

    Any input/thoughts would be appreciated.

  • Mark Shinnick

    We touched on this concept before, where a counter-model model gets engaged.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Interesting – I had two stop outs like this today (see below). I may start changing my approach a little:

    1) Wait for a breach of envisioned support, e.g. a diagonal or BB.
    2) Enter where I originally would have put my stop.
    3) Stop will be the distance between the technical context and the entry.

    Clearly the increased volatility we are seeing across the tape is producing a lot of FU swings which we’ll have to account for. I did look for entries on other symbols today which however did not revert. So I got the worst of both worlds – plays where I was waiting for a drop to enter which didn’t happen. And two plays where the tape did drop lower AFTER my entry and then reversed shortly after my stop was touched.

    So in that respect today was productive as a lesson on what to expect going forward. Discipline in picking entries will be more important than ever.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What was the consensus? I don’t recall.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    on trending days, wait one or two additional candles (before signaling)
    several of the blue arrows are on red down candles, with one blue following.

    If those extra one or two candles can’t follow through in trend, it’s either a pause or reverse. better to be one candle late, than step in front of a trend.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t either…its tactically so very short-coupled in addition to being so swing-like… maybe few could relate to how to actually code for it.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Just closed out. I’m not too excited about things for tomorrow unless we get a big move in either direction by EOD

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So what is your point then, Mark? I was proposing a method of dealing with signals in strongly trending tape. Was pretty clear on the entry rules. IF there is a stop out on a mole signal I would like to figure out what the success rate of reversal trades would be.

  • Huey

    In a trending market anywhere is technically a good time to jump on, it’s just hard to spot trend day vs. range day in real time. You would need to develop a very robust model for predicting day type I would think.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    On trending days you won’t even get the original entry. I think on trending days one may actually skip the counter trend entry and wait for a breach of the spike high (on up days) or the spike low (on down days). Then take an entry WITH the trend.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Look at the tape yesterday – it barely touched VWAP in the first half of the session. Failure to revert to VWAP after a Mole long signal is usually a good sign that we’re in a down trend day.

  • Kato33

    Closed out 1/2 at 1862

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    you have a point, regardless of timeframe.
    on trending days, the counter bounce/noise/whatever – is just not worth the risk.

    EDIT: wrap everything into a envelope, and play the outliers.

  • Huey

    I’ve been having the same issues in FX. I’ve been trying to be more mindful about entering on a pullback or near “value” but have missed a couple of entries making that technique frustrating as well. My conclusion last weekend was that this is a tough market and missing entries is better than getting whipsawed. Just my 2c.

  • Huey

    True, that’s an easy one to test too.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, if anyone can code for it I think you have the basic code already in place to adapt to it. Personally, I might first try using a ATR 30 min of vol to help adjust the proposed stop-buy…but your imagination is probably well ahead of this already. πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    Precisely, as the participation grows it out-strips a recency bias of where that former sense of “value” said it was.

  • Round we go
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    In your example, the up arrows were in fact a correct signal. The market dipped lower to 1804 (lower is relatively speaking to the big ass move), making that first up arrow not the greatest entry. However it was still a correct signal. Agreed that a better entry would have been had at 1804’s up arrow. I do like the idea of the red stop out lines as they will decrease the overall losses before profits are seen.

  • Darkthirty

    The trick is to acknowledge bot/algo days and believe that nothing works as it should!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Turn your chart right side up! πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Here they come….. Ye hath little faith in the bulls today. I do my best to wait for days end when I scalp long.

  • mugabe

    Looks like a backtest job (to state the obvious)

  • Billabong

    Lots of good ideas below … with that said, I’m sitting on the sidelines or holding positions. My guideline is the 25 EMA and it’s showing a downtrend across the board. I’m not going to try and catch the DCBs but will add in the direction of the trend.

  • BKXtoZERO

    not much at the end. Out of XIV. I think I’ve turned scalper until things look more sure.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ..less than 4 hrs to Asia Market open.

    In the mean time, this would be the time for the Spoos to drop for a while
    [4,2,1,0.5] RSI respectively.

    http://s12.postimg.org/sqd0foftp/temp1_RSI.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Appreciate the charts but they’re so tiny I can’t make out what they are.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Maybe a better URL, direct.

    let me try this one?..

    http://s12.postimg.org/tsn6y7ymz/temp1_RSI.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That one gets cut off. If I may suggest jing – it’s a pretty cool tool that hooks into screencast.com.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    so did mine, until I found the scroll bar.
    I’ll avoid this layout in the future.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nah, layout is fine. It’s just easier to post charts with jing and screencast IMO. But whatever floats your boat – charts are always appreciated.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just capture a screenshot then open it with a paint program then save as a jpeg, then just drag the file into the comment box. Like today DWTI chart earlier today.

  • Grant

    As soon as you adjust what was working, you will begin to miss winners when they appear. Backtest and make it boring. Walk in your work.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ..interesting watching the evening Spoos. I have much to learn.

    also, my bias was revealed, 30m RSI (right panel) crossed the line, but as the next candle paints, the visual on the chart changes. Turns out price went essentially nowhere for a few hours.
    (Yes, I’ve seen Spoos thinly traded over the years, but this Month is different!)

    a conspiracy? no, looking at the hourly chart (left panel), RSI was hugging 50 as support, just the facts ma’am.

  • BKXtoZERO

    There goes oil and SP up (after hours of course). My oil position will be green tomorrow but from some of the reading I have done, I am pretty worried about the impact of all the energy related bad debt and of course so are the banks which is probably the only reason for the rally. My lens sees 35 as a fairly easy target to at least try to prove something w/out even reversing the trend. I will start a pretty tight trailing stop. Price is everything as is taught here but I have to say I don’t at all like what I have had the time to look into.

  • Round we go

    steady as she goes. rsi above 52.

  • Round we go
  • Round we go

    fake out then break out πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    )
    ( /( ( (
    )()) ( )))( ‘
    ((_) ) ((_)() )
    _((_)((_) _(())_)()
    | | || __| ((_)/ /
    | .` || _| // /
    ( |_|_||)__|( _/_/
    ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You cannot rely solely on momo indicators like RSI, stochastics, MACD during bear markets. They barely work during sideways or bull markets. They often become embedded and once they confirm it’s usually too late. The RSI may be better in the latter but I suggest you look at the ultimate indicator, which is…. (drumrolls)….

    PRICE!

  • w00tsy

    I have a similar strategy that works out pretty well. Only time when it gets into issues is when you have multiple “signals” so for in your case, multiple uparrows in a row (do you take the short or take the long?)