Now Reading
Sh^rk Bait
138

Sh^rk Bait

by The MoleMarch 5, 2010

I leave town for a few days and not only do you guys let the market go completely out of control – you even let a troll pollute the airwaves for several days. Glad I decided to come back early – it’s time for Mole’s iron broom to scare out the cockroaches.

Boy, my wave count is not looking pretty – this is either going to get really really ugly for the bears or it’s going to be an ass whopping of biblical proportions for the bulltards. Yes, we all hope for the latter but we may have to face reality in a few handles from now. Remember what I said two weeks back about the third wave to the downside which suddenly turns out to be a c wave? Well, thus far that very nightmare scenario seems to be playing out – to the chagrin of anyone holding long term puts (yours truly included).

Soylent Blue is barely hanging on and the wave count on green now points towards a very massive third wave developing – not a pretty picture if you’re short.

Also remember what I said about Mr. VIX? How the 20 day 2.0 BB was starting to expand to the downside as the bears missed one opportunity after the other to reign in the bulls? And how we might have to watch the VIX stroll down the lower boundary day after day without ever pushing to the outside? That’s exactly what happened and consequently Vaseline jars are flying off the shelves faster than Ben Bernanke can print coin to actually pay for them. Hey, if you live in West Hollywood you might actually enjoy a good anal plowing – for the rest of the bears it’s been nothing but pain and frustration.

UPDATE: After posting this Mr. VIX actually dropped through that support line like a hot knife through butter. We are now approaching the January 11 lows – if those don’t hold the bears are in a world of hurt.

Meanwhile I’m watching the Euro futures not catching much of a break and I can’t help but think: What is going to happen when the Euro is actually starting to rally? Shudder…

Mr. Zero is solidly bullish and NYSE A/D ratio today is probably going to close above 4.5. The McClellan is still climbing – not much of a divergence here – what I saw last week has been reversed.

My CPCE chart is also looking pretty scary – all that upside progress in equities and we barely dropped – there is a LOT of space leading to a bottom – it’s looking bad for the bears, folks.

My ADV/DEC ratio chart points towards a possible short term reversal next week – might be an opportunity to scale out of short term puts if you’re holding those.

Not sure what to tell you boys and girls – but I’m not seeing a market ready to turn. I hope I’m wrong – I really do – because I’d be rather wrong and rich than right and stopped out. In case you want to know – my stop for my long term puts is the 1,150.45 high – after that it’s Soylent Green all the way.

Bottom line: Equities need to turn right now and here – once we breach that 1,140 mark it’s game over for the bears.

Good news: Geronimo is doing very well lately. We got stopped out three days ago after being one tick away from our target. So, I’m thinking of adding a special filter which accounts for a rare case in which the trade was right but the target was wrong. When we are so close to the target and then turn it’s obvious that the big boys took their profits and the trade is over – in which case it’s smart to not force it and get out at break even (or slightly above). Otherwise Geronimo has been kicking ass and taking numbers – I will probably post some charts over the weekend.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • alexdg

    Are there any bears left?…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Grim.

  • Gold_Gerb

    {speechless}

  • roncofooddehydrator

    FAS is only 2% away from being 10% above the 2hr 30 EMA. Every time it's hit that mark in the past it has dropped. One mediocre up day on Monday (or even better, a gap up on Monday) and we're there. I think this will coincide nicely with the $SPX weekly 200 EMA which is at 1141.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm feeling like the Black Night (legless and armless) but without the defiance.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    only hamsters…

  • shortcover

    we haven't even taken out the highs yet…i think we have to get full bear panic…i have plenty of x3 and x2 short ETFs and too many VXX. But i just write calls on them (except for VXX). and so far it's been painful, but not horrible…we may do 1200 first…who knows. who cares…i still think we end up at 650 again in the next few years…as a re-test.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    RELOAD PAGE!

  • Nightwind

    Small FAZ position, 15.87

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Dear Mole

    Could you count V down to where you have III and take into account 1044 as B?

  • I_got_Prechterized

    sometime you just have to fight your fear and click the mouse. I am going almost all in here to 80% short. I used mostly June puts for my position. I'm saving the other 20% for a bust above 1150 if it comes. We're approaching virtually 100 points straight up with no pullback.

  • tradejane

    Unfortunately, yes.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I'm shorting GLD here agg. It looks sickly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure what you mean – can you paint it on a chart for me?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nothing in my post refers to fear. I'm presenting EVIDENCE mate – obviously my puts are still losing money 😉

  • zenob

    The problem with holding leveraged ETFs for that long is that the leverage will rot the position. Then it doesn't matter if the market turns or not, the capital loss will be to severe to make up.

  • Gold_Gerb

    serious question: do you roll puts into months farther out?
    or do shy from such practices due to overhead?

  • johnny

    i hvnt seen mkt screwing elliott wave so easily , every new subwave moves like a 3rd wave , every retracement is like a triangle which retraces nothing spacewise. totally crazy mkt ,better to stay away till some sanity returns.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yupp…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Has anyone been banking coin by with their SLV long? I would take profits here.

    Re-long if . . .

    . . . (1) $SPX/SLV breaks this 50% fib to continue downtrending, which would signal that SLV is outperforming $SPX . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    . . . and (2) SLV breaks above this fib fan resistance . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Unless those conditions happen, I'll be on the sidelines, yo, or looking for a different trade, yo yo.

  • Gold_Gerb

    i'm wondering if it will return.
    new paradigm, yada yada.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm beginning to suspect that the Hamster is blind and does all his charting in his head.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    leaving for dinner, but your iii down could be counted v, then A, then B to 1044 then expanded flat leads to a prety 5 wave up to….

  • Nightwind

    Out of FAZ, that was quick

  • Gold_Gerb

    I wonder why he doesn't do multi-hue's like you?
    Hmmm..
    http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Are_hamsters_colour_b

  • raised_by_wolves

    They're going the way of the dodo along with Sh^rk and his Prosperity Gospel.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    lol, look at HOG today. Somebody put on a March put spread a few weeks ago that is now down 98% or so. it's up almost 6% on no news.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not blind, but keeps most of his counts and fibs (endless probabilities) in his head

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Wait for FAS to hit 10% above the 30EMA. That's 84.64 right now. I'm holding out for Monday, which will ideally be up, to get into FAZ.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I knew you did most of it in your head. But Mole wants to see it. So, after dinner, are you going to show him a chart?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    You could also do FAZ 10% below its 30 EMA, which is 15.47.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hmm, what about Gerbils?

  • johnny

    mkt closes with yet another triangle lol

  • sirgiyan

    Just bought some 520 BIDU April puts

  • kirkor

    Was it just mega evil sign of RUT hitting top at 666????

  • PRSGuitars

    That's what I said… then we know this market is doomed.

  • Nightwind

    Thanks for the heads up,… I'm kinda into pain : )

  • Nightwind

    Now that would be a hell of a note if it closed there.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tomorrow, tonight just dinner and some techno

  • I_got_Prechterized

    shorting gold might be safer than equities here. At least gold will probably go down if the dollar rises. anything could happen with equities.

  • Gold_Gerb

    let's not go there.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Certainly, GLD has been a better the last couple days. As long as $SPX/GLD keeps rising, equities will be the better long and GLD the better short.

  • gsavli

    nah, we are probably waiting for SPX 6666.66 for the top.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    what a weak piece of shit the financial markets have become. today was the granddaddy of them all right, the jobs report? look at the volume. pathetic again. nobody trades except JPM and GS's computers and retail traders on the other side of the trades.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You have my attention now – if you're too lazy to pony up a chart I'll be too lazy to sacrifice my weekend time to respond.

  • momac

    thanks for the update. This market is just unbelievable. So at 1140-1142.50, we close out all our shorts, eat the losses, close our eyes and hold our nose and buy, buy, buy. That is going to be very difficult to do. But trying to pick the top is absolutely killing my account. Another thing, zero has been giving great signals, sorry to say, I've been too stuborn to take them.

  • alexdg

    +1 LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trust me mate – I have been there – and I wrote the fucking thing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay let me draw a schematic for you:

    Retail trader's money — (transfer)—->>> GS/JPM trading accounts.

    That's pretty much a simplified diagram of how the market works. Has always been this way but not as extreme as in the past year.

  • alexdg

    Monday another up day? How many would that make in a row? (dojis can count as an up day given the trend :-).

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We might actually see a bit of profit taking on Monday – see my ADV/DEC vol chart above.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I don't need all of Monday to be up, just enough to get us to 1141

  • raised_by_wolves

    $SPX has not yet hit 1040 and beyond, but $SPX/$VIX is clearly in the bear danger zone (see red box). I showed this to PRSGuitars in the previous thread. Every Stainless Steel Rat needs to see this.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NYSE A/D ratio at the close was 4 point fucking 9. Sick – a new record for 2010.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ouch…

  • I_got_Prechterized

    and it'll always be that way. it would be nice to have all the tools available to them. for example, it's been obvious to many for a while that shorting the leveraged ETFs is easy money. they are designed to decay toward 0. FAZ is at $15.85 and it's 52 week high is $1155. the problem is it's so fucking hard for most of us to borrow shares because the prop desks have borrowed them all. I know a clerk at a clearing firm and he says the big prop desks are always calling trying to borrow more shares. oh well, fuck em all. have a good weekend.

  • raised_by_wolves

    $SPX/$VIX does have resistance just above the current level with these bands, but, if these bands don't stop the tape here and now as you said, well, the only resistance after that is air.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • shortcover

    I have been writing covered calls monthly and have been just fine.

  • derekste

    welcome back, mole. looking forward to the geronimo update. I've been following Rammstein (which hasn't had a winning trade in a couple weeks now, I don't think) lately, and have a academic interest in programmatic trading in general.

    have you ever thought of doing some sort of automatic tracking system on your programmatic trades, and making the information publicly available? I know you're tight on time, but if there was some way to make that data set easily accessible, it would be pretty easy (for me) to do. just a thought, have a great weekend sir!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    I suppose the obvious thing would be for the inverse head and shoulders with a target of > 1150 to play out, the $VIX to pop back into that lower channel at the same time, and the remaining bears to jump off buildings.

  • bee01

    Sounds reasonable to me 🙂

  • boldventure

    Times like these should be embraced…..nothing is harder than making money in a sideways market. Up market or down market….. as a trader this is what you want as long as it's moving.

    If you are biased in your trading to only one side you need to be in cash when the markets trending against you………. period.

    No one can guess direction, and ever be profitable long term.

    On 2-26-10 the SPY broke above the 5DMA at 110 and has stayed there till now at 114…….Hindsight is 20/20 and anyone can be an armchair quarterback after the game is played. Thats not what I'm trying to say here, and I sure am not tryin to rub salt in anyones wounds who has stayed short here long term. Just open your thinking to being long when the market warrants it(or cash) and being aggressivly short when the market warrants it. The market is to big to move so fast that you won't catch up. In 2008 it was 75 days to lose 30% after sept-04-08
    In 2000 it took longer……in 1929 it took 2 yrs to bottom…….

    AAPL 2-26-10 broke above 5DMA at 202—– today still above closed 218

    RINO 3-1-10 broke above 5DMA at 20.45—–today still above closed 23.34

    LZ 2-26-10 broke above 5DMA at 79——today still above closed 87.65

  • funkypenguin

    Haven't played with the ratio much but it looks pretty overbought based upon RSI(14). Eyeballing it, this looks like a potential correction should form.

    Sentiment is getting quite bullish as well = downside.

    On the other hand, if the GS, JPM etc computers are in buy mode, bears are toast. I'm betting on pullback and went short TF at close. (Uncle Russell is way overbought)

  • uberbear

    I seriously have to rearrange my thinking now (maybe even a change of name?). Time for beer, lots of beer.

  • uberbear

    If this thing is not going to sell of hard on monday, the damage inflicted on my brain will even more than the booze could possible do this comming evening.

  • Gold_Gerb

    “Amnesia nervous breakdown” is quite possible.
    http://www.jesse-livermore.com/jesse-livermore-

  • denali92

    One could easily argue that the RUT and MID have embarked on Wave 5 on their weekly charts!

    SCARY!!

  • johnny

    looks like hochberg will soon leave bear camp now,it seems like dow top will coincide with robert prechter's bullish stance

  • uberbear

    I'm glad it's weekend. Time to reconsider my way of thinking, maybe my realitity just is not lining up with the rest of the people on this planet 😉 , don't want to go Livermore's way.

  • amokta

    ewi stu fri “Stocks appear close to reversing lower on a near term basis, because a small “five up” is nearing an end. It is important for the bearish case that this decline be strong and broad based.”

  • johnny

    this principle worked very well , but to my surprise every 5 wave advance is followed by a triangular pause then another 5 wave comes with more ferocity then another and another , i can count atleast 4-5 such sets since 1040

  • mugabe

    no one seems to contemplate the possibility of a double top. stranger things have happened. the weekly MACDH is still negative and we're overbought. and the gap up today could be due to bulls (too) late to the party.

  • johnny

    who knows

  • alexdg

    100 pts rally with no pullback? What are the odds…
    answer : the same that managed to make it happen on 5 other ocasions in 09…

  • alexdg

    I covered my short on a cfd_spx. Still have leveraged etf's running, but a higher high and I'll give up on that front.

  • amokta

    also they say “…..Otherwise, we will need to re-label the near-term wave structure to allow for a new recovery high, above the January extreme……”

    so they have covered them selves!

  • johnny

    they are running subscriptions , ask them to try trading their own views sometime ,u lose nothing by forecasting

  • amokta

    True, i may drop my subscription – was good for learning etc, but doesnt help with actual trading!

  • johnny

    the owner of the site says dow is going 400 , just to create sensation and garner more subscribers.he's getting richer and his subscribers are getting broke ,very disheartening to see crooks coming on tv and blabbering rubbish

  • alexdg

    At this point, any short still open should hang on, because even 100 points rally has to have some kind of pull back coming!… right??
    Mondays… in these modern times (since March'09) aren't allowed to be a down day (Black Monday recollections by BananaBen).

  • amokta

    So true, they very selective in advertising their 'sucessful' calls, but they would have been saying them for months – not helpful for actual trading!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I don't mean to SPAM, but a MASSIVE bullish signal triggered today…

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2010/03/very-importa

  • alexdg

    Wise words. But then again on a contrarian point of view, changing now is what the “market” was expecting you to do and you'd be hosed again! 🙂

  • johnny

    this mkt has no bearish signals so wats new in it, any blind can see that market is rising and only rising from 52 weeks

  • n2thezonez

    Bears may not have much to hang their hat on, but I will provide two items:

    1. March expiration is two weeks away. Regardless of the put/call trading ratio (many of those transactions on the Put side may be removing exposure), open interest is quite interesting. I took a look at the near the money open interest for SPY (near the money being defined as 3 strikes ITM and 3 strikes OTM).

    In the money call open interest: 414,000
    Out of the money calls: 343,000
    Total near the money: 757,000

    In the money puts: 55,000
    Out of the money puts: 246,000
    Total near the money: 301,000

    That's a ratio of 2.5 calls to 1 put. Very different than last month, indeed. Possibly worth noting, as well, is that there 500,000 open March SPX 1100 options. That number is far higher than any other strike price.

    2. One chart: http://www.screencast.com/users/n2thezonez/fold

  • alexdg

    Same here! Sadly. Actually, sites like ZH, Mish etc might be nice for macro view and inside scoops, but are bad for (day)trading ideas. Will eventually give a bearish bias. EWT these days reminds me of this guy http://www.fractalmarketreport.com/ .

  • alexdg

    P3 has been called since last summer? A “conviction” Go-Short-2x-SPX recomendation was given when it was somewhere in the 109X-111X region.

  • sirgiyan

    I just opened this chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/ZjczNzAyYmUt

    It says in bold letters: !!!!!!!SMART MONEY ARE HEAVILY LONG = BEARS ARE FUCKED NEAR TERM!!!!!!!!

    If some of you would propose another interpretation – I would be glad

  • alexdg

    Probably means that next week's pullback should be a good opportunity to go long.

  • sirgiyan

    Well, I can hardly imagine ANY pullback at all looking at that chart, to be frank

  • n2thezonez

    Near the money open interest March calls outnumber puts by a ratio of 6:1. I guess that another interpretation could be “Who sold them the calls?” Mom and Pop aren't out there selling OEX options.

    The OEX traders were extraordinarily heavy on the put side in late September and that did not foretell a big decline. Same story in early November.

  • sirgiyan

    I agree that Mom's are not involved in selling those options. On the other hand they do not buy those options either. So chart looks scary to me. BTW: Do you mean OEX options open interest of 6:1 or all index options or equity or both? Thanks in advance.

  • kostee

    Are we there yet? Sure looks like double top. + /-2-4pts. All cash now. will watch monday. but thinking, good place to go down to 980-1000. the make a run to 1250 or so and then drag all summer to boredom. Monday will tell.
    Back to tequila.{to kill yah} Na zdorovia

  • gregn

    Possible fractal. I am bullish on the market, being bearish for the past 4 months — funny, huh? I have been in and out of long positions since the hammer bottom near the 200dma. Anyway, here is the possible fractal: http://screencast.com/t/NTliZjM0

  • n2thezonez

    The 6:1 is just March OEX options that are near the money (3 strikes in both directions).

    Don't mistake my comments for being certain that the next two weeks will be down. I posted 2 bearish items, but there is obviously plenty that is bullish.

  • honeyeater

    There is a confluence of the 200 weekly sma and the 61.8% fib level of the S&P Oct 07/Mar 09 big move. This will present a formidable barrier for the bulls, and a low risk trade for the bears. A long tailed candle after the probe of 1230 will add weight to uncertainty and diminished confidence for the bulls.

    Confidence destruction is the key to any likelihood of a major move down. The endless array of factual and actual insolvencies keep washing over the market, with the sandbags of CBs and Govts preventing the tsunami of fear that would cause any further erosion in markets.
    Social mood, and the risk appetite/aversion that binds with it, predicate market movement.
    It will only be an 'unexpected' event frightening the lemmings that will spook the peaceful stroll in the park on towards the previous highs, and then in rapid succession, leans on a succession of dominoes that will cause the stampede.
    What that event will be is unforeseen, but rest assured an event/events will pop up right at that confluence.

  • sirgiyan

    Thanks. In fact that chart of mine DOES NOT mean we never pull back. I even tend to believe we do pull back to 105-106 SPY but it would be indeed the buying opportunity.
    Max Pain indicates SPY at 105 and also extreme bullishness in options – so we might see that figure – but I would say that would be it until at least 1200 SPX

  • fast996

    I'm tired of the bulltards using all the Charmin,this bear has plenty of dingleballs and it's time this market took a massive dump. I don't know who's nuke is going to drop,don't care,but if this is a real triangle in the Valueline,RUT, those bulltards are in for a big surpise. If it's bullish all I can say is fuck this shit.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/fold

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OMG – I remember this guy! Complete waste of time – I was subscribed way back and dropped it after a few months.

  • yudhisthira

    Last chance help from euro. Hourly chart on FXE, euro etf.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NjQ0NmVlOT

    Fifth wave decline in euro could surprise equities next week.
    Not counting on it.

  • charles_smith

    Say you were a member of the PPT or one of their proxies. (OK, you'd be stinking rich and not bothering to read a traders' site because you are making the market and don't need to read tea leaves…) You identify the key resistance levels everybody look at (SPX 1119, etc.) and then you engineer a gap up which blows through all those TA lines in the sand. Everybody's black box covers their shorts, and away we go. I mean, why wouldn't you do this on low-volume days?

    Isn't 1144 about the 61.8% retrace of the entire move from 1440 to 666 ? It would be very ordinary for the SPX to kiss this on Monday and then reverse.

    I am suspicious when a market on fumes “breaks out.” Yah. Let's not forget the 1-year anniversary of the “rally that will never die” is here. Maybe that's nothing, maybe not.

  • Graphite

    Judging by the reaction most people have to the Dow 400 forecast I doubt it's something EWI/Prechter is doing in order to add subscribers.

  • Graphite

    Your point being? Does a move from 1100 to 1150 blow out someone who was 200% short?

  • ClutchShorter

    If we look at the DOW, S & P, and Nasdaq in July and in October, you notice one recurring theme, a cup and handle formation. The recent market activity is showing another cup and handle formation in the works. If this holds and breaks resistance, the market will continue to fly higher….

  • yudhisthira

    Another market guru to pay:

    SEC Charges 'America's Prophet' With Fraud; Investors Sent $6 Million To Psychic

    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    saving grace for the bears? http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/2010/03/wha

  • elliott_surfs

    I won't comment on what the indicators say on the short-term because it seems a sneeze would throw them off, so ignore the mess at the bottom of the chart. I see us coming up against a major resistance line since them way back highs and seems we ran smack dab right at that line today. Mole, I'd definitely agree if we don't turn her around immediately things look pretty weak =(
    I'd love to see that 200 make up it's mind and head south. Also, is it possible we just completed an IHS today?
    Any comments welcome please
    http://screencast.com/t/NDMyOGEy

  • woewoe

    Book it Dano! OTay!

  • n2thezonez

    Devilish chart, indeed.

    There's no way for the 200 day to decide to turn down without prices deciding to take residence beneath the 200 day.

  • elliott_surfs

    Aye, I'm a bit slow at these hours…possibly meant the 50 to turn down, who knows =p
    I've been trying to follow some divergences on the indicators and like what I see with your MACD chart. Any other divergences off the top of your head? (before I start digging mah self)

  • gregn

    Well, I recently turned bullish medium term, but am glad I chased out all of my calls today. While the market does not care about lines that people draw on charts, this one is pretty interesting: I might grab some long term OTMs tomorrow. http://screencast.com/t/MDhkMmIy

  • gatopeich

    Amazing indicators. May I ask how do you get those signals in TOS?

  • gatopeich

    Amazing indicators. May I ask how do you get those signals in TOS?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Morning from Switzerland.

    Here's a look at the London FTSE for ya.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

  • raised_by_wolves

    Un-fucking-believable.

  • alexdg

    Being a programmer and knowing my way around Matlab, I always had an interest with Fractals and complex numbers. So I subscribe this guys newsletter thinking that he actually had something of interest to say with his “Fractal Dimension”. What a joke!

  • kokoro33

    bizarre anomaly in $OEX

    1.382 extension inside of a .786 retrace

    alert the authorities

    first chart:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/mo_chi_chu

  • adamantiaf

    Redraw your channel – you're clearly not using the tops of the previous highs…we busted through the top of that channel.

  • itsgold

    From what I've read so far P3 is suppose to last 2-4 years. It's not an event that will drop the market down to below the March lows within a few months.

  • wanessafruas

    Mole,

    A binomial path for the market. A kind of coin flip. 50/50. That's a randon walk and an argument to efficient hypothesis. Do not u think?

  • amokta

    “Do You Have the Mental Fortitude to Accept Huge Gains?”

    ironically, article on EWI site ! – hey no huge gains if you follow them for last year!

  • Graphite

    In February 2009 they called for a rally to Dow 10,000 and S&P 1000-1100. Sounds like pretty decent gains to me.

  • amokta

    well, in actual fact, their spin was that this would be a bear market rally,and that the best option was to stay in cash. But they should have said go-long, as most of their susbcribers are retail investors, if they were so confident of a rally – perhaps they didnt think it would last 1 year

  • adamantiaf

    http://vagabondtrading.blogspot.com/2010/03/daw

    Just kidding, but we are close…just a little more confirmation is required before declaring a bull market. However, just by looking at Russell 2000's action over the past month, there is no doubt that the market wants higher prices. In hindsight, the correction on 2/5 was as deep as we're going to see, bouncing off the 200 EMA with enormous volume by BIG MONEY. If this correction was to dip twice (first being 2/5), then the SPX should not have held the 20 EMA for 3 consecutive days from 2/23 to 2/25. That was sign to GET OUT of shorts and stay cash or go back to long positions. I am optimistic that 1,150 will be broken by the end of March, followed by a period of consolidation and retest of 20 EMA at least once between now and the end of April. That retest of the 20 EMA will be the next buy point to enter 50 or 33% of position to see if it holds. If it doesn't hold, I'd expect more fakeouts below the 50 EMA to suck in more bears, in which case the 200 EMA will stand as the next logical buy point.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uLDxW49dH3M/S5LZsi78u

  • shortcover

    breaking news…”Iceland voters reject debt deal”

  • momac
  • amokta
  • kokoro33

    spot of trouble on the hill, sir

    The Last of the V8 Interceptors
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/mo_chi_chu

  • elliott_surfs

    dat derr be wunna dem pitchforks!?

  • Joe8888

    RUSSELL Closed at a Measured Move up , from March 2009 Lows at 666 .to the Penny !

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • Schwerepunkt

    Freaky; hopefully, that means this leg up is done.

  • jd60

    news doesn't matter but this one is still interesting. I saw in on zerohedge and bloomberg:

    China to Nullify Financing Guarantees by Local Governments

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-oneills-we

  • gmak

    A little bit of number crunching. Mole: If you had another post to do, just put a link to it in yours when you overlay. Thanks.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14798#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • raised_by_wolves

    I will go uberbearish if $SPX/$VIX paints a weekly red candle that drops below this SMAE (208,6.618) of mine:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Think conditional.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Raised By Wolves gives you new name. From now on, Raised By Wolves calls you uberbeer.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I will go uberbearish if $SPX/$VIX paints a weekly red candle that drops below this SMAE (208,6.618) of mine:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Think conditional.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Raised By Wolves gives you new name. From now on, Raised By Wolves calls you uberbeer.

  • Pingback: The Last Sucker | the evil speculator - one nefarious trade at a time()