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Slosh Report
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Slosh Report

by The MoleJuly 10, 2009

I just remembered that I hadn’t run a slosh report for a while and quite frankly I was a bit shocked when I saw the updated graph this evening:

  • This table summarizes recent Temporary Open Market Operations. All values in $billions.
  • The “Sloshing” columns (dark blue) show the total Repos that have been accepted but have not yet matured as of the date shown.
  • This source of the data is the NY Fed web site.

What are Repos?

The Fed makes injections of Repos (Repurchase Agreements — usually TOMOs — Temporary Open Market Operations typically expiring in 1 to 30 days) into the market most business days.

Repurchase Agreements are loans (at Fed Fund rates) issued daily, in amounts typically ranging from U.S. $1 to U.S. $20 billion, by the Federal Reserve to Primary Dealers, the proceeds of which can be used to buy, for
example, Dow index futures, if the Fed seeks to boost the Dow. The total amount of un-expired Repos on any given day constitutes the “Repo Pool.” (i.e. the ‘Slosh’ shown above’). Monitoring changes in Repo Poll levels (which is publicly available information) is crucial to determining how the interventions might affect the markets (assuming you wear a tin foil hat like me).

While the Repo Pool is one vehicle for manipulating the markets it is not the only one – interventions can and do occur without changes in the Repo Pool. It now appears that The Fed uses TSLF injections and TARP funds to intervene as well – which is why you need to select the TAF option (you can leave out the TIOs).

My Take:

Ladies and leeches, that’s quite a significant drop and it’ll kick in next Thursday, right at the end of OPX. Unless I misread this graph – and it’s entire possible since I am not a credit market aficionado, so please don’t hesitate to correct me if I do – the Fed is ‘draining the swamp’ and thus I expect a considerable dislocation (i.e. large drop) in equities by the end of OPX week. BTW, this would also fit the time table Fujisan suggested today: Some more meandering this week and the next, maybe a little rally even getting us to 900-912 – after that the SPX falls off the plate and doesn’t find a floor until 800 or below (~7,700 on the DJI).

I would very much for you credit pros to chime in here – where’s Red when you need him?

Alright, I’m turning in – see you guys on the other side.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    The Kotov Syndrome and high probability trading. Everything points up into next week.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/kotov-syndro

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/lnXdZIs4

    Above is TK's list of potential shorts, I have sorted by TOS Easy to Borrow, then by daily volume (I rarely trade any stock that trades less than 400,000 per day), and also include is Short Float from Finviz.

    Please also visit my BLOG where I will keep this list posted for easy access, and also will post the charts for the ones that are both easy to borrow, and have decent volume

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • EDC

    Great job and find Mole.

    goes along with my titanic post, there isn't enough life boats (liquidity) to keep everything up forever. The only thing (or last war to fight) they have to keep up are gubermint bonds.

    As liquid dollars vaporize we can expect the cruddiest currency in the world the USD to appreciate. funny how money works.

  • maple

    10year, normally, yes, but they could balance the withdrawal from the TAF with other SOMA actions, and you cannot know if they will or won't until the time comes – Karl Denninger.

  • Keirsten

    Steve- thanks so much for doing all of this organizing so we leeches can leech off of you and make life a little easier. Just wanted you to know it is very much appreciated.

  • migueladron

    Reich says recovery out of the question:

    http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs

  • PRSGuitars

    With respect, I posted a link to your analysis on AceTraders, too — there's a brief discussion on consecutive weekly lower closes so I commented that you just put up relevant commentary.

    Just letting you know, as I've found your site (along with EvilSpec, naturally, and Mortie @ BostonWealth, Atilla/Sol @ xtrends, and AceTraders) to be immensely informative.

    Cheers!

  • barfoo

    About your probabilities for consequtive low weeks, I don't get your point. Are you saying that if you are flipping coin and have got tails 9 times in a row it is highly improbable you'll get it for the 10th times in a row? Surely you must know that the probability is always the same. I am not saying it is 50-50 in stock market but just looking at the 1,48% probability does not say anything at all. What is more insteresting is the probability you will get Nth consequtive low week GIVEN you have already got N. Here are those probabilities from your data:

    P(1|0) = 44%
    P(2|1) = 44%
    P(3|2) = 45%
    P(4|3) = 43%
    P(5|4) = 39%
    P(6|5) = 41%

    So it seems that having prior low weeks does not have much change in probability thus far, it is always roughly 40%. With more weeks, it does get lower but the sample sizes are already so small there is little statistical significance.

  • NoFate

    I agree with Reich, but think calling it an X shaped recovery is retarded. Instead of throwing up his arms and claiming he has no clue he should just pick from W (80s), L (90s Japan) or VL (GD).

  • Anonymous

    Lots of people I read are calling for a similar pattern – though not with the accuracy you’re presenting or for the same reasons. For what little it’s worth, the particular stochastics I’ve been playing with with are showing oversold on the daily candles and extremely overbought on the weekly candles (weekly lines crossed on the 7th).

    As for tinfoil thoughts….

    I think the whole “visible hand” episode was as blatant as it was in order to buy time. Especially with the derivatives of Damocles hanging over us. At some point it has to go back to a tool that’s only brought out when needed. The ideal way to use a tool is to tweak things just enough that private participants move things in the desired direction on their own. So we won’t see it disappear completely, but possibly used less often so as to wean traders off of it gently.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Your welcome, I wasn't able to find a way to post the scans of the charts, but Ill try to find a way.

    If anyone knows a file posting program like screencast, but for files, please let me know.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Mole, great find of original material!

  • NoFate

    Yeah, I agree this is flawed analysis.

    It's like betting on black at the Roulette table because the last 4 spins were red.

    Further, your analysis doesn't include the fact that we are in a primary bear market, which increases the odds of a down week substantially.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Hey, I used to do computer work for you guys something like a decade ago. How strange to see you here! (assuming that's why you chose the name, that is)

  • Squidman

    Not sure why the EUR/USD keeps falling here but close to S1 and the trend line so will watch for a doji to go long with a tight stop. You playing Steve077? GBP/JPY does not look to trend tonight.

  • Squidman

    Nix that, wait and watch. Alone.

  • onorio

    EUR/USD at 0.72 retrace from yestarday high and outside BB.

    IMO one slighter low and up we go, im gonna try a long arround 1.3885 with a tight stop.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Damn,
    Right before I went to bed last night I put in a stop (eur/usd) at 1.4030 on my short position, just in case it moved against me overnight like many here seem to be expecting.
    LOL, I woke up and was happy to see an apparent 130+ pips profit while I slept. Of course when I log into my broker I see that, alas, a few minutes after I put in my stop, there's one last gasp upwards that just triggers my stop and then proceeds to fall out of bed, as I was expecting.
    Bad luck, stupidity on my part for not having a looser stop, broker sweeping for stops? Yes to all 3.
    Anyway, still walked away with a profit, but it should have been much larger.
    Grrrrrrrr. Thank God it's Friday

  • onorio

    Ok i`m long EUR/USD @ 1.3880

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Not tonight, had my computer being worked on. Made minor coin on USD/JPY from yesterday.

  • Lordted

    Hi Mole

    You posted the other day asking about Solar Eclipse? – dunno if you found what you wanted but here is Nasa take on it: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2

    Seems it will be over China and the Pacific… Key date July 22nd. Nice graphs they must have a good budget…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, excellent information about the repo pool. You teach me something new everyday!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Mole,

    Excellent intel!!!! Here are two links to KD's ticker regarding “slosh”

    June 16th 2009
    http://tinyurl.com/mnar7h

    September 24th 2008
    http://tinyurl.com/3s3zf6

    I wish I were more educated to elaborate on this data, but at least I'm absorbing. Thanks for the info!!!!!!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I am working from 6 am to past 6 pm today. Been up since 4 am. I hope the tape doesnt make me fall asleep today.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Good morning Jan, thanks for the links

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Look at long term charts of eur yen and gbp yen…seems they have broken down through the wedge formed since jan lows…so these pairs bottomed before equities..now topping out? Maybe a retest of the line..but I would be shorting the rallies
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/Slcphoys3
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/SlcphRAlH

  • springheel_jack

    Just boosting this from last night's discussions as I think it is worth reading for those just assuming that we will continue to chop about here. We might, but the major fall that is probably coming could start any time now, and IMO will most likely start that fall today or Monday. looking at the ES action overnight, it may be starting now.

    I hope not, as I was hoping to complete my short setup today as per alphahorn's scenario.

    – Anna's right, the market may bounce a bit tomorrow but I don't think that the H&S is going to take any more time to build because the neckline has already been broken. The H&S on the SPX daily is now complete, as are numerous others on other indices. The technical damage has already been done and we have already made a lower low than the May lows. All we are waiting for now is the follow through which should follow quickly.

    Anyone long here should keep stops tight IMO. Anyone going short should do so quickly or miss the next big move down which may well start tomorrow or Monday.

    I'm short SPX, oil & GBP, and will be finishing my short setup tomorrow. I am most definitely going to be short over the weekend.

  • Lordted

    Funny you should say that just been stopped out a long YM pre market.

    Today is very slow and heavy…

  • springheel_jack

    On the subject of H&S formations in the SPX in major bear markets, I have a really spooky chart to share with everyone today from the last bear market in 2002/3:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    This is a very interesting chart showing an H&S formation in Q4 2002 & Q1 2003 on the SPX. You'll see the LS peaked at about 925, the head at 954 and the RS at 935. Anything sounding familiar so far?

    Obvious points to note in terms of those looking for further similarities that may play out now are that the RS took less time to form than the LS, that when it fell through the neckline it fell hard and did not return to challenge it for two months, and that it took three weeks of choppy falls after falling through the neckline to reach the initial low of 805.

    Food for thought.

  • springheel_jack

    I am hoping for at least some upside this morning at least, as my short setup is less than half complete. That would still leave me fairly happy and banking serius coin if we fall hard from here without a bounce, but a lot less happy than I will be if we can make it back to 890 and then drop from there.

    Everyone seems to be assuming a dull day today, same as they did last Thursday of course. Last Thursday turned out to be a very interesting day and Friday's do have a lot of form for larg falls (and rises) and Mondays even more so.

  • Lordted

    Just a reminder today is Friday….

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I dont imagine a big gap up happening at this point, we've broken way past yesterday's bottom support already here.

    Obama is speaking now. great.

  • springheel_jack

    Oh I know! The original post was last night. Last Thursday was the last trading day of the week though.

  • springheel_jack

    We're not gapping up by the look of it. At this point I'd be happy with a bounce back to 887. I'm increasingly doubtful about anything more.

  • springheel_jack

    Oil is being eaten alive in the pre-market. Under $59 now. USD strengthening, equities weakening. This is not looking great so far for any bounce this morning.

  • innatedc

    How very fucking interesting….trade deficit news hits with unexpected positive news and TOS completely freezes….total bullshit.

  • annamall

    Morning everyone!
    Futures look great this morning, and as I have said all week, I say the time is near (of course no one knows for sure) but you have to be positioned correctly for the huge move. Everyone is expecting bounce and we probably won't get much of one if any.

    This is only my thought and feelings and am just telling you what I see. I am 90% short and have been all week. Have made much, but the tape hasn't really moved either.

    Good luck trading everyone! 🙂

  • innatedc

    Can anyone with a working platform tell what the futures are doing now….TOS seems to work for the Goldman boys now……

  • Jason70

    These repos affect a pool of bank reserves that is $900B. That pool was $100B a year ago. Banks have no shortage of liquidity.

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/

    Show me how the slosh report correlates with anything over a period of time.

  • jacksoo

    see error message

  • annamall

    YM -69 (oooohhh)
    Nq -8.25
    ES -7.75

  • innatedc

    Jesus Anna, is that your body on the icon!!!!??? Now how's a guy supposed to trade in this kinda environment…..I need all my concentration girl….;)

  • innatedc

    Ok we're on now…..thanks

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    my take on the day, if this is indeed an abc (535) correction, then it seems we're in b and in the third leg of b with waves 3,4,5 left in b. then once b ends we should see a 5 wave up for c to end around 893 now.

    otherwise if this impulses down, then we've topped and the H&S is playing out in full force. but thus far, this move down has still looked corrective. http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    yes, just changing things up Inna.. 🙂 why not, I love being a girl and work out very hard! 🙂

    should I put my cat up?

  • innatedc

    NO, NO….I think I can hold it together….I think I can, I think I can….thinking baseball and cold showers, baseball and cold showers…..LOL!!!

  • annamall

    heheh! your sweet

  • annamall

    Nice as always Alpha! 🙂

  • lilme

    EEM

    People pulling money out of emerging markets funds:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch

  • dingos

    Nice chart. Interesting that it hit a higher low after the H&S in March.

  • CDOtrader

    Mole, its not the Fed pulling money out its the respective banks. Pls understand that the Fed is not a repo counterparty but merely a liquidity provider (most repo is done via T's supplied by the Fed), it is the banks amongst themselves that provide liquidity to each other and customers. Hope this helps.

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    Europe was talking at the g8 about bailing out 10 eastern european countries I think.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    [ this is a report, sorry DISQUS subscribers]
    Post on DeMark D-WAVE counts (weekly, daily, hourly) is up
    it really starting to make a lot of sense now
    trading-to-win.com

  • Osso

    USO: 31.37 50% retracement of move low/top.
    NEM: 37.50 under the 200 dma.

  • Osso

    on what index, pls. ???

  • Osso

    ok..sorry, didnt noticed the link…

  • annamall

    What do you make of all that David?

  • springheel_jack

    I think we may well see that again this time.

    In 2003 that was the end of the bear market of course, cut off early with a flood of cheap credit and with necessary unwinding delayed until the next bear market.

    That could well happen again.

  • Osso

    read that R2K has broken neckline, or close to…..and some mkts. like DAX,FTSE,AUS…are signalling DOWN.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    omelet?
    It seems that my D-wave counts are gradually getting in sync with Mole's
    So it either going to work perfectly and make us some $$$ or, since everyone will be thinking the same thing – we all will get screwed 🙂

    As for today – I am closing most short positions first thing on the open (or at least trail them)

  • katzo7

    In support of mole's slosh report, I offer this analysis. It is speculative though.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/10/spx-500-

  • annamall

    Not staying short? Think they will push it higher?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't think we ready for “big move” – theta is burning 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Who cares about GM>Get this ass hat off the tv.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL you know what, I had a feeling someone was going to say something with regards to the probabilities calculation.

    The calculation depends on your assumption of the probability distribution of weekly closes. A more robust calculation would be based on P(X = Weekly Close) = 43.57% so the 5th weekly close could also be calculated as 0.4357^5 = 1.57% (i.e. a binomial distribution).

    You could also use conditional probabilities, as you provided above, and get a completely different answer. But again, everything relies on your assumption of the distribution.

    I've this exact conversation about a 1000 times over the years so I'll leave it there. I'm glad though you put this calculation up for clarity.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    You must be a scientist lol.

    This calculation is not flawed, see comment above.

    Incidentally, before you trash someone do your homework. IN THIS BEAR MARKET, almost all 4 consecutive weekly lower closes have been followed by a 5th weekly close UP.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I read them and was following the repos way before that via the Fed mailing list. Which suddenly went very quiet as it’s all now happening through TAF window. Those bastards are making it harder and harder to follow this stuff.

  • Macrawn

    I think one of the primary goals of the injections was to help banks get some additional stock offerings out and raise some cash. That was accomplished. After they helped push the market up past some key levels and the banks raised cash they probably want to know how the market stands on it's own. It hasn't. It wants to go down. I do wonder, however, if they will attempt to defend the 875 level. I would be if I had the resources to do it because a clear break of that line really opens up the way down and will create a lot more downward momentum. It will cost a heck of a lot more trying to stabalize things further below.

  • annamall

    ahhh 🙂

  • lester

    Oh my gosh, I quit looking at my charts

  • thelefteyeguy

    another bear trap?

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    If I'm interpreting this correctly the trend is definitely down for stocks.
    John Murphy's Intermarket PerfChart
    http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/Inter

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    GOOG and AAPL looking really strong 5 minutes after open.

  • Douala

    “CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    Short and to the point; the Bulls fumbled the ball. Shorts were caught pressing their bets Wednesday after the S&P appeared to break decisively below support at 880, only to get their wallets picked as the market rallied back above the neckline into the close. With equities gapping higher Thursday, it should have been relatively easy for institutions to propel sharply higher after successfully holding the 200-day Moving Average..

    Time will tell, as always, but when a potential set-up fails, the ensuing reaction is normally violent. Something just doesn’t feel right; maybe it’s this socialism thing, but the natural ebb and flow of free markets seems compromised, the current administration seems more fixated on abrogating legal covenants than solving America’s difficult fiscal problems.

    Philosophically, owning gold in these uncertain times is a lay-up, but the lackluster day to day action of the underlying security is disconcerting. When unsure of the near-term trend, W.D. Gann recommended concentrating on the weekly charts; immediately Bulls should feel better, the main trend unequivocally pointing higher.

    Although we have been suspicious of the recent rally for many weeks, the past few sessions are the first indications of potential trouble. We were prepared for a rally Thursday and made some money even though the advance petered out. Stops will now be tightened as we patiently wait for the market to speak.

    If you want to hear, you have to listen.

    Have a great day.”

  • Fujisan

    Mole – it looks like EUR/USD turned out to be a much bigger winner than 50 pip move! Sorry!

    Long EUR/USD with a tight stop.

  • annamall

    Dr K, Mooooo-va-lous post! LOL

  • gannsecret

    Molecool,
    Per my post yesterday, I still have a half cycle high due next
    week 14 or 15th, then all cyles point lower into the low on the 21st.
    I expect the Mkt to meander up & down with main resistance at 907
    (if it gets that high) The Mkts are retesting the breakdown of the necklines,
    especially the DJIA and are dancing around the 200 day averages. I expect a rapid decline when the up cycle finishes by the 14-15th next week.

  • Coreshot

    Mole-thanks for the post. Normal times would suggest that banks are willing to lend to each other again, thus less liquidity is needed by the banks. This drop could just represent the group of banks that have repaid Tarp funds. These are however not normal times. So, on the other hand it is curious that the change coincides with the drop in equity and commodity prices adding to concern that the banks funneled this money into the markets. Ultimately it's hard to determine the impact. I'd be interested in seeing chages upon the next sharp Market up turn, if this changes we might have a short term correlation to exploit.

    My bigger concern for opportunity/protection is, where might these unused funds resurface? mortgages, currencies, balance for an impending drop in gold? Any ideas?

  • Fujisan

    I'm with ya! I am looking forward to unload my longs.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems AIG goes down every day lol

  • Douala

    Did you see McHugh's H&S on the foreign markets? He noted DAX could possibly go to zero.

  • Squidman

    Where were you 5 hours ago when I was trying to decide (lol)!

  • molecool

    DAMN YOU Fujisannnnn!!!!!!

    LOL – just kidding – hehe – you're forgiven. But FX is quickly growing on me- it's like taking candy from a baby 😉

  • Bricks

    WTF is going on with POT and MOS? they took off this morning. Moved to fast to get an entry

  • molecool

    Probably taking our trades for us – isn't that right Fujisan?? 🙂

  • barfoo

    I still don't get your point. I understand if you don't want to continue the conversation if you have had it many times already but I would still want to understand. What relevance does the probability of having 5 consecutive low weeks have in the current situation? I don't get why anyone would be interested in that instead of the conditional probability.

  • thelefteyeguy

    confidence numbers out soon…

  • annamall

    Adding more Ausust SPY puts on Gap fill

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /es 882 to watch for res

  • lester

    which strike anna? I am looking at Sept 85 or so. I am still speechless over you pic

  • Count_de_Monee

    Tell me about it. I faded the consensus and went short last night for a puny profit.
    Now I'm staying away since revenge trades never end well.

  • annamall

    Damn that was fast did fill and would have been awesome trade 🙁

  • annamall

    August 88 but it didn't fill damn!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    for today's intraday action i posted yesterday:
    “down pre market/open
    up 10am, down from there

  • dullmind

    Yes, great work work Katzo, keep it up, staying short.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Yeah, too fast for me. Was busy posting instead of shorting…

  • thelefteyeguy

    ok thanks…so much info to digest

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    TurboCheat Timmy moving his lips

  • Osso

    i receive a brief e mail, as an ex subscriber.

  • annamall

    I am so mad they didn't fill it I had it for the ask and it still didn't fill??? Jeezzz

  • onorio

    What`s your target Fuji?

    Im long since 1.3880 i`m looking for a possible 3 or C up so i`m thinking we could go above 1.407

  • katzo7

    But we have to be open to any meaningful changes, make or break time right
    here and now.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup, glad I had close orders on yest puts, went long on dip, re-opened some shorts 9:50EST
    it looks that even lotto play on HIG Jul10p might pay off some (did I say that I HATE insurance cos?)

  • chumprop

    haha, they tried so hard to hold it up right up to 9:55am so they could drop it for the 10am reversal…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    paraphrasing “Fifth Element”
    “Price is of no importance – time is” 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    I keep putting in trailing stops on my FAZ, then cancelling, then putting them in again… Can't tell what the hell is going to happen next with anything.

  • katzo7

    More “points” being added in rapid succession to my break the EW5 on Day. Throw momma from the train!

  • gannsecret

    always use market orders

  • Fujisan

    Hey, I need a beauty sleep, too!

  • Fujisan

    Hey, I need a beauty sleep, too!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I know – I write my “game plan” on post-it, place it on monitor and never read it 'cause I cannot find my glasses 🙂

  • Douala

    OSSO

    sent me an email
    will_u_please_spam_me[at]yhaoo[dot][com]

    I will sent you a copy of his regular letter and report if you a want. Have few more weeks left.

  • lester

    I just bought some Aug 87 and Sep 85s. I am 40% short now.

  • anotherone

    Yeah. I got caught napping on that one. Still looking to pick up 5 more SPY Sep 85 Puts. OTOH, I'm pleased that I already have quite a few.

  • Fujisan

    Isn't this fun?? I hope you had a chance to go long this morning.

  • annamall

    Don't you mean MOOOOOOO-MA LOL

  • rockybalboaa

    AIG going down n down…!! Doesn't look like there is any technical resistance until it's 52 week low at 6.47.

    Added to Aug 5 puts..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /es 870 likely to be tested

  • annamall

    Me too Anotherone 30 of them but was trying to add. 🙂

  • Fujisan

    Oh, what a shame!! I know what you are going through. We hate stops but we need them!

  • annamall

    Great timing D! 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Christ, whiplashed city.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I heard they decided to move volatility to this Friday 🙂

  • annamall

    Just took off 1/2 SHLD put for a 200% profit whoo hoo!

  • annamall

    Stay the course unless you get a nice profit, especially the August. The Sept won't get much Theta burn. 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    My dilemma is that I start a 2 week vacation this weekend. The good part is I'll be on the west coast and can watch/trade in the mornings before the lovely wife wakes up (I'm an early riser). But with the wild swings each day I'll have to put in a stop and the mystery is how wide of one to put in… I know, my life is hell. 😉

    Flying to Seattle and spending 2 weeks driving down the Pacific Coast Highway to San Diego and flying home from there… First time doing the coastline, looking forward to it.

  • annamall

    adding the SPY puts here now DON”T CAVE Lester!!

  • thelefteyeguy

    looks like the computers are playing pong right now 🙂

  • lester

    got out of my AIG Aug Puts just in time…I will probably reload next week

  • annamall

    Oh nice Iggy! that sounds fabuous! Such beautiful countryside. I love PCH Stop in Carmel if you can. 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I know people are getting all giddy short but I'm still looking for a pop up into next week. I am slightly short but not aggressively by any means.

  • innatedc

    Nice little bear trap….

  • annamall

    See you this afternoon guys! Good luck 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    Thanks Anna… I'm sure we will… if there's a chance of glimpsing Clint Eastwood my wife will make sure we take our time passing through. LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    RS forming on the 15min?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    goog 418 to watch for reversal/breakout

  • rockybalboaa

    Nice pic Anna. Likin' da tan 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    We've also established a higher low (870) from 865 low on 7/8/09.

  • dollar

    Dedicated to this #$%#$!! whipsaw tape: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhGt6KktfS4

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    short US gov – always pays off (forget “don't fight the FED”)

  • lester

    nice you waited. I am staying in with the Sept over the weekend. I will keep some Aug too but sell most.

  • molecool

    Jeezzz – that some chop suey today…

  • Osso

    oki…..tks !!!!! will send u an email…diego

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    loaded goog jul410p @10.60 – tight stop on that one

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looking to add fslr calls at 143 area

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks like the SPX abc, wave ii/2 is still looking promising. As i posted this morning we opened with waves 3,4,5 to finish b, now if this is the count c should paint 5 waves up to around 893-5

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • molecool

    Actually I just rolled out of bed – needed some beauty sleep – hehe..

  • molecool

    No you don't – I'm sure you are gorgeous just the way you are.

  • nirav777

    “and then…..” in an old Chinese lady voice

  • Squidman

    Highly doubt it, however, I defer to your woman's perrogative to think you do.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Tim Geitner live on Bloomberg.

    To Tim Geitner: Blah Blah Blah. I hope you choke on your lying words.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    What strike price? Which month?

  • onorio

    Yup, market closed for a break re-open at 3:30

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    at least he said they will make efforts to “stop market manipulation”……hahahahahaaha

  • annamall

    😀

  • 1981er

    Morning everyone, quick question: How many have successfully negotiated commish rates on TOS and if so how low will they go?

  • lester

    the shitsaw continues

  • Coreshot

    Not sure of the technical term, but the opposite of theta burn seems to be taking place on the inverse ETF's. If your short, hope the trend continues.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    XOM third try $64.95 support level. Watching volume.

  • lester

    AIG would have been nice long today. Maybe time to reload short…

  • Osso

    goldstocks on a bid.

  • fademe

    Sounds like so far you are timing this right…good job 🙂

  • lester

    I did not play the long leg, but like I said short again

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    A huge spike in the GOLD/SILVER ratio is very bearish I have to admit. Currently reading 72.47

    http://www.kitco.com/market/

  • ScubaSteve

    GS on a bid.

  • Keirsten

    Just checking in: Trading GS again. Approaching neckline on an inverse H&S fwiw

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    flipped 5 AIG Jul 9 calls – 60% gains – LOL

  • ropey

    that's a pretty ballsy move being long any options contracts this close to opex 🙂 although maybe good i cant see it going up too much more – the 20$ run in 2 days has been quite something…
    the theta is a killer though which is why i did a calendar on it but alas the IV push into earnings and this move up is offsetting any of the profits i would of had, will see how it looks next tues/wed..

  • ropey

    check out the OI on the August 80s – huge!

  • standard_and_poor

    Still 20% short. Next week there will be economic reports everyday, those should give bears the ammo they need for some some extended down moves. Enough of chop chop already.

    Blasted! almost forgot ladies night is tonight not tomorrow. Here's some half dressed
    hunky beefcake, as if Katzo wasn't enough, in living color and in stereo.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3KrXFAsd0

  • Osso

    still below 144.89

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    cnbc dished the Head n shoulders formation…prob means chances have gone UP of being fulfilled!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    building pos for aug 155c and some jul155c lotto – expecting tuesday move up in commodities/dow dollar

  • springheel_jack

    The theta burn varies a lot on these in any case. The sector inverse ETFs burn up the fastest.

    Anyone looking fora 3x with lowish theta burn should check out Direxion Daily Large Cap bear 3x.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just keeping myself entertained and interested till real move starts:)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You are playing Aug – right ?

    It has come down too much… risky to go short with Jul puts IMO… If spx goes to 890+, AIG could easily go up 2-3 bucks..

  • katzo7

    We break 876 a shit storm of selling might ensue.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    there she blows

  • goldpackers

    SPG breaking down 33 into august

  • standard_and_poor

    Holy lace panties what have I been missing!

  • ropey

    yeah interesting – also watching AAPL, looks like its trying to backtest the trendline it broke a few days ago, seems 139-140 will be the high….feels like a 130-135 pin on aapl even though i've got a damn BF on 140 lol, may give it till monday/tues to squeeze out more theta on it and then eject…

  • ScubaSteve

    If it's going to break higher, looking for a U-shaped retrace off of 144.89 and then a move up.

  • lester

    Aug yes, would never play July now…

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Ropey- yes AAPL has that little gap fill at 142.52 as well. Maybe they'll pull a partial.

  • lester

    why 876?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Die Nasdaq DIE!

  • Autopsias

    Live Nasdaq Live!!

    Like a worm! Below the earth! 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    We're wading through treacle to get there, but this is looking good.

    Nice divergence on the zero lite called this one.

  • springheel_jack

    …. and cut in half!

  • anotherone

    Yeah, I have single Aug 45 Put on that. It's riding the lower bollinger band down after being pinched at the first of the month. My profit target is somewhere around 42. May reevaluate at that point.

  • Keirsten

    You've got double swing high support in that zone Lester. Check out the daily on a 6 month time frame

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL!!

  • katzo7

    It is today's LOD on the 15 min. SPX, helps to confirm a break of the EW4 on
    that time frame thus a total recount. That is the one I am waiting to have
    break, the 5 min. has already broken to the downside obviously. Notice how
    tough it is to get through 876.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    worms regenerate dammit!

  • ScubaSteve

    Well that got me out. In AUG 140 calls at 7.40, out at 12.10.

  • rhae

    SPY 15m taking a look at Lester's Shit Saw… just one tooth…
    http://screencast.com/t/a9b8aQcP6

  • springheel_jack

    That depends heavily on what happens after they're cut in half. 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    Off topic note: Lance Armstrong has taken the lead in The Tour. The stage isn't over yet, but the yellow jersey leader just fell back on the final mountain climb.

    Like him or hate him, Armstrong is a machine.

  • katzo7

    From wiki:
    Treacle tart is a traditional English dessert. It is made using shortcrust pastry, with a filling made out of golden syrup, cream, butter, and breadcrumbs. The tart is normally served hot or warm with a dollop of clotted cream, ordinary cream or custard.

    What, are we all a bunch of pastry chefs here? LOL

  • lester

    the market usually moves the way I want it too when I take a bathroom break

  • thelefteyeguy

    trade on the can?

  • lester

    I am short out the wazoo with Jul Aug and Sep SPY Puts. so watching every tick

  • Niktus

    That was brilliant! Take a book and spend some quality time in the chair of porcelain. 😉

  • springheel_jack

    No technical need for pastry, though I totally support your thesis that many things in life are much improved when hot tarts are added to the mix.

  • Coreshot

    Thanks, Jack, large cap makes sense.

  • katzo7

    IMO lester, this is signaling the complete breaking down of the March move,
    just hold all shorts/puts. Could be wrong though! Every day adds a little
    bit more piece of info.

  • Keirsten

    This is how tight the swing high support levels on SPY are on the daily:

    87.74, 87.65 and 87.49. Have hit two already. One to go….

  • LegendC

    ERX just does not want to print a new lower low, signs of resilience in energy?

  • lester

    I am not gonna hold July Puts over weekend…no way

  • onorio

    Cool!

    Tell me if you`re long or short, then go sit yourself till EOD!

  • newbear

    I used to take my laptop with wireless connection into the can, those were some of my best trades! 🙂

  • katzo7

    I am not your financial advisor! LOL

  • lester

    87.49 held, maybe I will go to batchroom again

  • katzo7

    You cad you. Sounds like another katzo in training here!
    Perhaps the funniest thing I ever said here was the open arm welcoming of
    WOOWOO into our community. Did you see that avatar? I am such a friendly
    guy.
    ROTFLMAO

  • Keirsten

    Pretty cool, huh? 😉

  • ausdude

    Looks like that got taken out as well..

  • thelefteyeguy

    pops some ex lax!

    we need a dump!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    go to the bathroom more often Lester, we just broke 87.49

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    out goog puts +10%+ on big position
    boy, do I feel stupid for closing POT puts in the morning 🙁

  • Keirsten

    Next support then at the LOD from Wed. Just trying to see where the buyers are stepping up at all here. They hit 87.49 pretty well

  • Bricks

    Nice Trade David,

    The early action on POT and MOS scared me enough to keep out. Glad I did now…was considering going long.

  • ropey

    at least you didnt bail on then at 112 about 2 days before the had the big dump – doh

  • springheel_jack

    We have to be looking good to break 870 on the SPX now.

  • Keirsten

    It hit that swing high from Feb and promptly dumped. Gotta love it. LOL

  • dingos

    Where do we donate to keep Lester in ex-lax?

  • goldpackers

    Turn due Monday and the 7-21/22. 850 into M/T then rally? A lot more bears in the camp now.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • ropey

    i have made some trades through TOS iPhone whilst on the loo – i wouldn't recommend it though lol

  • lester

    HOLY CRAP

  • Keirsten

    It hit a lower TL support though going down this morning. I'm just going to watch and see if it'll bounce or continue to deflate

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    HIG puts be gone, 30% – I'll take it for one night's work (yeah, I AM lazy)

  • Osso

    buying USO at 31.35/37

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my short was based on this chart

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you don't want to be shor tdollar till Tuesday I think

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Ropey,
    sorry I did nto quite understood what you mean, but
    I was long and short and long and short goog multiple times over the last 2 weeks.
    Not holding anything for too long in no trend

  • ropey

    sorry i mean with regards to POT, myself and Keirsten were watching it, except i had no balls to hold it even though it was clearly going down, i bailed at 112 and missed the ride down on puts to 85-90 that's all.

    For the no trend stuff i'm just doing calendars into opex right now, a bit risky but the pay is good so far. I don't like the fact we're nearing an inflection point but have got a fairly wide range to handle the moves, as long as SPY doesn't go below 85 for opex or above 92 then should at least make something. If it does then close out breakeven and try again lol.

    Still curious on fujisans ATM calendar on GOOG right before earnings, did a couple on earnings before and tends to be ok but really need the options to be liquid…

  • TomOfTheNorth

    with a dollop of cream or custard…….

  • springheel_jack

    There can only be one katzo

  • katzo7

    I am watching the EWs on lower time frames break one by one with great interest.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/10/watching

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I only had the chance to visit that website once or twice before it was transformed into a private blog. Seems though there was a good bunch.

  • standard_and_poor

    Next week if we break 1727 on COMPQ, I'll increase shorts to 25-30% on pullbacks.

    The “way-back machine” has been set to Joni Mitchell.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFGrRSVW8jk

  • springheel_jack

    Cream generally, but custard can work out too. 🙂

    2009/7/10 Disqus <>

  • Fujisan

    Mole – it looks like EUR/USD turned out to be a much bigger winner than 50 pip move! Sorry!

    Long EUR/USD with a tight stop.

  • gannsecret

    Molecool,
    Per my post yesterday, I still have a half cycle high due next
    week 14 or 15th, then all cyles point lower into the low on the 21st.
    I expect the Mkt to meander up & down with main resistance at 907
    (if it gets that high) The Mkts are retesting the breakdown of the necklines,
    especially the DJIA and are dancing around the 200 day averages. I expect a rapid decline when the up cycle finishes by the 14-15th next week.

  • Coreshot

    Mole-thanks for the post. Normal times would suggest that banks are willing to lend to each other again, thus less liquidity is needed by the banks. This drop could just represent the group of banks that have repaid Tarp funds. These are however not normal times. So, on the other hand it is curious that the change coincides with the drop in equity and commodity prices adding to concern that the banks funneled this money into the markets. Ultimately it's hard to determine the impact. I'd be interested in seeing chages upon the next sharp Market up turn, if this changes we might have a short term correlation to exploit.

    My bigger concern for opportunity/protection is, where might these unused funds resurface? mortgages, currencies, balance for an impending drop in gold? Any ideas?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems AIG goes down every day lol

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    DAMN YOU Fujisannnnn!!!!!!

    LOL – just kidding – hehe – you're forgiven. But FX is quickly growing on me- it's like taking candy from a baby 😉

  • Bricks

    WTF is going on with POT and MOS? they took off this morning. Moved to fast to get an entry

  • thelefteyeguy

    confidence numbers out soon…

    lol…another bear trap for today…looks like Alpha and David's charts are speaking louding right now

    im sitting on my hands…this whipsaw is f'ed up

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Adding more Ausust SPY puts on Gap fill

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    /es 882 to watch for res

  • lester

    which strike anna? I am looking at Sept 85 or so. I am still speechless over you pic

  • Count_de_Monee

    Tell me about it. I faded the consensus and went short last night for a puny profit.
    Now I'm staying away since revenge trades never end well.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Damn that was fast!!!!!gap did fill and would have been awesome trade 🙁 I had a order for August 88 put on SpY

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    August 88 but it didn't fill damn! &*((***&((** BTW thank you Lester!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    for today's intraday action i posted yesterday:
    “down pre market/open
    up 10am, down from there

  • Count_de_Monee

    Yeah, too fast for me. Was busy posting instead of shorting…

  • thelefteyeguy

    ok thanks…so much info to digest

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    TurboCheat Timmy moving his lips

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am so mad they didn't fill it !!!!!!!I had it for the ask and it still didn't fill??? Jeezzz exactly at the gap fill before the Confidence numbers!

  • Onorio

    What`s your target Fuji?

    Im long since 1.3880 i`m looking for a possible 3 or C up so i`m thinking we could go above 1.407

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    yup, glad I had close orders on yest puts, went long on dip, re-opened some shorts 9:50EST
    it looks that even lotto play on HIG Jul10p might pay off some (did I say that I HATE insurance cos?)

  • chumprop

    haha, they tried so hard to hold it up right up to 9:55am so they could drop it for the 10am reversal…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    paraphrasing “Fifth Element”
    “Price is of no importance – time is” 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    I keep putting in trailing stops on my FAZ, then cancelling, then putting them in again… Can't tell what the hell is going to happen next with anything.

  • katzo7

    More “points” being added in rapid succession to my break the EW5 on Day. Throw momma from the train!

  • gannsecret

    always use market orders

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I know – I write my “game plan” on post-it, place it on monitor and never read it 'cause I cannot find my glasses 🙂

  • lester

    I just bought some Aug 87 and Sep 85s. I am 40% short now.

  • anotherone

    Yeah. I got caught napping on that one. Still looking to pick up 5 more SPY Sep 85 Puts. OTOH, I'm pleased that I already have quite a few.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Don't you mean MOOOOOOO-MA LOL

  • http://bostonwealth.net Rocky

    AIG going down n down…!! Doesn't look like there is any technical resistance until it's 52 week low at 6.47.

    Added to Aug 5 puts..

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    /es 870 likely to be tested

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Me too Anotherone 30 of them but was trying to add. 🙂

  • Fujisan

    Oh, what a shame!! I know what you are going through. We hate stops but we need them!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Great timing D! 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Christ, whiplashed city.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I heard they decided to move volatility to this Friday 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just took off 1/2 SHLD puts for a 200% profit whoo hoo! The only long I have is K (I hate cornflakes LOL)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Stay the course unless you get a nice profit, especially the August. The Sept won't get much Theta burn. 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    My dilemma is that I start a 2 week vacation this weekend. The good part is I'll be on the west coast and can watch/trade in the mornings before the lovely wife wakes up (I'm an early riser). But with the wild swings each day I'll have to put in a stop and the mystery is how wide of one to put in… I know, my life is hell. 😉

    Flying to Seattle and spending 2 weeks driving down the Pacific Coast Highway to San Diego and flying home from there… First time doing the coastline, looking forward to it.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    adding the SPY puts here now DON”T CAVE Lester!!

  • thelefteyeguy

    looks like the computers are playing pong right now 🙂

  • lester

    got out of my AIG Aug Puts just in time…I will probably reload next week

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Oh nice Iggy! that sounds fabuous! Such beautiful countryside. I love PCH Stop in Carmel if you can. 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I know people are getting all giddy short but I'm still looking for a pop up into next week. I am slightly short but not aggressively by any means.

  • innatedc

    Nice little bear trap….

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    See you this afternoon guys! Good luck 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    Thanks Anna… I'm sure we will… if there's a chance of glimpsing Clint Eastwood my wife will make sure we take our time passing through. LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    RS forming on the 15min?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    goog 418 to watch for reversal/breakout

  • http://bostonwealth.net Rocky

    Nice pic Anna. Likin' da tan 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    We've also established a higher low (870) from 865 low on 7/8/09.

  • dollar

    Dedicated to this #$%#$!! whipsaw tape: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhGt6KktfS4

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    short US gov – always pays off (forget “don't fight the FED”)

  • lester

    nice you waited. I am staying in with the Sept over the weekend. I will keep some Aug too but sell most.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezzz – that some chop suey today…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    loaded goog jul410p @10.60 – tight stop on that one

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    looking to add fslr calls at 143 area

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks like the SPX abc, wave ii/2 is still looking promising. As i posted this morning we opened with waves 3,4,5 to finish b, now if this is the count c should paint 5 waves up to around 893-5

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • nirav777

    “and then…..” in an old Chinese lady voice

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Tim Geitner live on Bloomberg.

    To Tim Geitner: Blah Blah Blah. I hope you choke on your lying words.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    What strike price? Which month?

  • Onorio

    Yup, market closed for a break re-open at 3:30

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    at least he said they will make efforts to “stop market manipulation”……hahahahahaaha

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    😀

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Morning everyone, quick question: How many have successfully negotiated commish rates on TOS and if so how low will they go?

  • lester

    the shitsaw continues

  • Coreshot

    Not sure of the technical term, but the opposite of theta burn seems to be taking place on the inverse ETF's. If your short, hope the trend continues.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    XOM third try $64.95 support level. Watching volume.

  • lester

    AIG would have been nice long today. Maybe time to reload short…Edit: I just did buy Puts again

  • Osso

    goldstocks on a bid.

  • fademe

    Sounds like so far you are timing this right…good job 🙂

  • lester

    I did not play the long leg, but like I said short again

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    A huge spike in the GOLD/SILVER ratio is very bearish I have to admit. Currently reading 72.47

    http://www.kitco.com/market/

  • ScubaSteve

    GS on a bid.

  • Keirsten

    Just checking in: Trading GS again. Approaching neckline on an inverse H&S fwiw

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    flipped 5 AIG Jul 9 calls – 60% gains – LOL

  • ropey

    that's a pretty ballsy move being long any options contracts this close to opex 🙂 although maybe good i cant see it going up too much more – the 20$ run in 2 days has been quite something…
    the theta is a killer though which is why i did a calendar on it but alas the IV push into earnings and this move up is offsetting any of the profits i would of had, will see how it looks next tues/wed..

  • ropey

    check out the OI on the August 80s – huge!

  • standard_and_poor

    Still 20% short. Next week there will be economic reports everyday, those should give bears the ammo they need for some some extended down moves. Enough of chop chop already.

    Blasted! almost forgot ladies night is tonight not tomorrow. Here's some half dressed
    hunky beefcake, as if Katzo wasn't enough, in living color and in stereo.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3KrXFAsd0

  • Osso

    still below 144.89

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    cnbc dished the Head n shoulders formation…prob means chances have gone UP of being fulfilled!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    building pos for aug 155c and some jul155c lotto – expecting tuesday move up in commodities/dow dollar

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    The theta burn varies a lot on these in any case. The sector inverse ETFs burn up the fastest.

    Anyone looking for a 3x with lowish theta burn should check out Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3x.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    just keeping myself entertained and interested till real move starts:)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You are playing Aug – right ?

    It has come down too much… risky to go short with Jul puts IMO… If spx goes to 890+, AIG could easily go up 2-3 bucks..

  • katzo7

    We break 876 a shit storm of selling might ensue.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    there she blows

  • goldpackers

    SPG breaking down 33 into august

  • standard_and_poor

    Holy lace panties what have I been missing!

  • ropey

    yeah interesting – also watching AAPL, looks like its trying to backtest the trendline it broke a few days ago, seems 139-140 will be the high….feels like a 130-135 pin on aapl even though i've got a damn BF on 140 lol, may give it till monday/tues to squeeze out more theta on it and then eject…

  • ScubaSteve

    If it's going to break higher, looking for a U-shaped retrace off of 144.89 and then a move up. A lower high will get me out of this GS calls trade.

  • lester

    Aug yes, would never play July now…

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Ropey- yes AAPL has that little gap fill at 142.52 as well. Maybe they'll pull a partial.

  • lester

    why 876?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Die Nasdaq DIE!

  • Autopsias

    Live Nasdaq Live!!

    Like a worm! Below the earth! 🙂

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    We're wading through treacle to get there, but this is looking good.

    Nice divergence on the zero lite called this one.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    …. and cut in half!

  • anotherone

    Yeah, I have single Aug 45 Put on that. It's riding the lower bollinger band down after being pinched at the first of the month. My profit target is somewhere around 42. May reevaluate at that point.

  • Keirsten

    You've got double swing high support in that zone Lester. Check out the daily on a 6 month time frame

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL!!

  • katzo7

    It is today's LOD on the 15 min. SPX, helps to confirm a break of the EW4 on
    that time frame thus a total recount. That is the one I am waiting to have
    break, the 5 min. has already broken to the downside obviously. Notice how
    tough it is to get through 876.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    worms regenerate dammit!

  • ScubaSteve

    Well that got me out. In AUG 140 calls at 7.40, out at 12.10.

  • rhae

    SPY 15m taking a look at Lester's Shit Saw… just one tooth…
    http://screencast.com/t/a9b8aQcP6

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    That depends heavily on what happens after they're cut in half. 🙂

  • Iguanadon

    Off topic note: Lance Armstrong has taken the lead in The Tour. The stage isn't over yet, but the yellow jersey leader just fell back on the final mountain climb.

    Like him or hate him, Armstrong is a machine.

  • katzo7

    From wiki:
    Treacle tart is a traditional English dessert. It is made using shortcrust pastry, with a filling made out of golden syrup, cream, butter, and breadcrumbs. The tart is normally served hot or warm with a dollop of clotted cream, ordinary cream or custard.

    What, are we all a bunch of pastry chefs here? LOL

  • lester

    the market usually moves the way I want it too when I take a bathroom break

  • thelefteyeguy

    trade on the can?

  • lester

    I am short out the wazoo with Jul Aug and Sep SPY Puts. so watching every tick

  • Niktus

    That was brilliant! Take a book and spend some quality time in the chair of porcelain. 😉

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    No technical need for pastry, though I totally support your thesis that many things in life are much improved when hot tarts are added to the mix.

  • Coreshot

    Thanks, Jack, large cap makes sense.

  • katzo7

    IMO lester, this is signaling the complete breaking down of the March move,
    just hold all shorts/puts. Could be wrong though! Every day adds a little
    bit more piece of info.

  • Keirsten

    This is how tight the swing high support levels on SPY are on the daily:

    87.74, 87.65 and 87.49. Have hit two already. One to go….

  • LegendC

    ERX just does not want to print a new lower low, signs of resilience in energy?

  • lester

    I am not gonna hold July Puts over weekend…no way

  • Onorio

    Cool!

    Tell me if you`re long or short, then go sit yourself till EOD!

  • newbear

    I used to take my laptop with wireless connection into the can, those were some of my best trades! 🙂

  • katzo7

    I am not your financial advisor! LOL

  • lester

    87.49 held, maybe I will go to bathroom again

  • katzo7

    You cad you. Sounds like another katzo in training here!
    Perhaps the funniest thing I ever said here was the open arm welcoming of
    WOOWOO into our community. Did you see that avatar? I am such a friendly
    guy.
    ROTFLMAO

  • Keirsten

    Pretty cool, huh? 😉

  • ausdude

    Looks like that got taken out as well..

  • thelefteyeguy

    pops some ex lax!

    we need a dump!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    go to the bathroom more often Lester, we just broke 87.49

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    out goog puts +10%+ on big position
    boy, do I feel stupid for closing POT puts in the morning 🙁

  • Keirsten

    Next support then at the LOD from Wed. Just trying to see where the buyers are stepping up at all here. They hit 87.49 pretty well

  • Bricks

    Nice Trade David,

    The early action on POT and MOS scared me enough to keep out. Glad I did now…was considering going long.

  • ropey

    at least you didnt bail on then at 112 about 2 days before the had the big dump – doh

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    We have to be looking good to break 870 on the SPX now.

  • Keirsten

    It hit that swing high from Feb and promptly dumped. Gotta love it. LOL

  • dingos

    Where do we donate to keep Lester in ex-lax?

  • goldpackers

    Turn due Monday and the 7-21/22. 850 into M/T then rally? A lot more bears in the camp now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • ropey

    i have made some trades through TOS iPhone whilst on the loo – i wouldn't recommend it though lol

  • lester

    HOLY CRAP

  • Keirsten

    It hit a lower TL support though going down this morning. I'm just going to watch and see if it'll bounce or continue to deflate

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    HIG puts be gone, 30% – I'll take it for one night's work (yeah, I AM lazy)

  • Osso

    buying USO at 31.35/37

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    my short was based on this chart
    http://screencast.com/t/kEsXosdqbA

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you don't want to be shor tdollar till Tuesday I think

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Ropey,
    sorry I did nto quite understood what you mean, but
    I was long and short and long and short goog multiple times over the last 2 weeks.
    Not holding anything for too long in no trend

  • ropey

    sorry i mean with regards to POT, myself and Keirsten were watching it, except i had no balls to hold it even though it was clearly going down, i bailed at 112 and missed the ride down on puts to 85-90 that's all.

    For the no trend stuff i'm just doing calendars into opex right now, a bit risky but the pay is good so far. I don't like the fact we're nearing an inflection point but have got a fairly wide range to handle the moves, as long as SPY doesn't go below 85 for opex or above 92 then should at least make something. If it does then close out breakeven and try again lol.

    Still curious on fujisans ATM calendar on GOOG right before earnings, did a couple on earnings before and tends to be ok but really need the options to be liquid…

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    with a dollop of cream or custard…….

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    There can only be one katzo

  • katzo7

    I am watching the EWs on lower time frames break one by one with great interest.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/10/watching

  • standard_and_poor

    Next week if we break 1727 on COMPQ, I'll increase shorts to 25-30% on pullbacks.

    The “way-back machine” has been set to Joni Mitchell.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFGrRSVW8jk

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Cream generally, but custard can work out too. 🙂

    2009/7/10 Disqus <>

  • Osso

    ..

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