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Steady As She Goes
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Steady As She Goes

by The MoleMarch 6, 2018

I am starting to slow down my trading activities a little as I’m busy preparing for a trip down to the Costa Blanca here in Spain. In case you missed some of my lamentations from previous years: The beginning of March marks the launch of Las Fallas, which slowly metamorphoses the city of Valencia from a quiet secondary Spanish enclave into the veritable Sodom and Gomorrha of Europe.

And we just happen to live in the center of it all, which is a lot of fun the very first time around but a huge annoyance and source of stress and noise pollution every single year thereafter. As a Valenciano you are basically given two choices – either get into the spirit and join the big party, or get the hell out of dodge while you still can. Guess which option we have chosen? That’s right – we are out of here starting Thursday until the 21st of March.

In case you are wondering, all services will continue as usual – just like last year and the year before it. And it’s not that I’m going to some remote location without connectivity. Although I won’t be schlepping all my gear with me I’ll pop in from time to time if I see a juicy entry or some important inflection point that’s worth mentioning. In the interim I have managed to once again convince Scott Phillips to fill in during my absence. And by convince I mean threatening him to release some of the incriminating photos I took of him during his last visit at the lair 🙂

Alright thus far it’s steady as she goes on the equities front. I’ll be advancing my trailing stop later today should price action continue to point upward. I did have to roll into June however as CME equity futures are about to roll over.

I’m happy to say that we did get our entry in gold. As you may recall we were waiting for a nice spike low touching 1322.50 or below – which is exactly what we got – as ordered. My ISL remains < 1314 for now and once gains reach 1R I’ll be advancing it to break/even.

We also took a long entry in crude above that beautiful double bottom that now seems to be on the map. And by we I mean yours truly and you as well if you were a sub – if not remedy that unfortunate personal failing quickly and efficiently by clicking here. Anyway we are now trailing < 62 and I’ll make sure to sacrifice a chicken burger to keep the market Gods in good spirit.

Unfortunately the ZB is starting to look like a stop out. The odds were low here to begin with as gravity is still excepting a strong bias, which is exactly why we kept our position sizing very small. You don’t bet the farm against an ongoing trend and it now looks like bond traders may continue to experience more downside for some time to come.

Finally my Bitcoin campaign reverted to my trail and got stopped out leaving me with about 0.7R in profit. Nothing to write home about but given the market phase it’s in it’s to be expected. And by that I mean that all that volatility led us into a sideways range during which BTC is trying to figure out where it wants to go next.

The daily chart right now still looks bullish to me but buying pressure continues to be lacking and crypto traders aren’t exactly known to be the patient type, except maybe for the HODL monkeys who simply hold and forget. If we see another leg lower I do however think that the 7000 mark has good odds of holding up, depending of course on the veracity of the sell off. Liquidity and exchange access issues have the potential to produce big outlier moves, the odds of which we may be under estimating.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX

    Have fun on the vaca–I mean HOLIDAY Mole! Want to see some pics of you lugging around that 30+” Apple monitor.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I still have that old Apple Cinema display – actually I have two of them but one is in L.A.:

    https://www.ebay.es/i/292453812936?chn=ps

    It’s been running nine years and if it breaks I may just buy another. LOVE them and I wish i could take mine along when I travel as I hate working on a lappy.

  • Ronebadger

    Mole is traveling…start timing your short plays! I’m not sure it works if he’s not flying somewhere or staying in-country…let’s see…

  • Yoda

    Best bearish news I have heard in a while

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Fire 1! Fire 2! It’s money in the bank. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Still open and I just set my stop at a little over +1 R on Crude. I have to leave for a little while so I want to go in peace. . .:) Also setting my stop on open XLE (ERX) at -.8R for now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    well deserved. Enjoy the R & R

  • HD

    $SPX opened +10 and right at noted R 2731 pivot. So far minor zig zag but it’s flexing

  • Tomcat

    Nice one BL. I was 0.0057 from getting a fill on S $RB this morning. .

  • Tomcat

    Even though $ES is more than 100 points from ATH, $NQ is almost at ATH. Crazy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what is up with gold? morning wood last 7 hrs.

  • HD

    20 point hit, half off.

  • Yoda
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks TC. Crude did hit my stop for +1 R while I was away and if we get back above $62.77, I’ll look to re-enter on the Long side. Otherwise I’ll be patiently waiting to go short as it’s not quite there yet by my rules. I also just raised my stop on ERX to -.5 R.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • ridingwaves

    the banks are saved, the banks are saved….bend over taxpayer, enjoy the reaming coming down the road….I might read this bill especially where it comes to bond and any market disruption https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d6de7dbc4b048a039103963448c272ecd6f3b4fb5adc25c77f386b5abf256d5.png …written by JPM and GS to help the good of all man kind….

    breaking news-Senate passes cloture on bank deregulation bill, 67-to-32

    USD is on a long and winding road – down….

  • Mary

    How might this impact the broader market over time?

    Kobe Steel chief is resigning over fake data scandal

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/06/news/companies/kobe-steel-ceo-resigns-japan/index.html

  • ridingwaves

    Where’s the Kobe beef?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s it?! a resignation?
    how about some jail time? or a pinky removal? or some good ole’sepiku.

    https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/l5r/images/8/84/Michiki%27s_Seppuku.jpg/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/250?cb=20140604215459

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Have a Great Holiday. You deserve it and more. Cheers

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. Looks like the pols are bringing back “the good ole days” of easy credit for all. As you said “bend over taxpayers” for a new round of reaming for the next bail out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What I miss?

  • BobbyLow

    I think RW was talking about a loosening of the Dodd Frank regs on banks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys are quiet today – what’s up?

  • Julie

    Previous thread posted USO strong resistance 12.68. Today could be high of bounce. A bearish close below the daily 5 ema at approx. 12.53 IMO a short
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    a couple of outside chores that had to be done

  • Julie
  • Tomcat

    I am fancying a small $ES short @2730

  • Mary

    This sounds like something big enough for more shoes to drop. Bridges, ships, planes??? What were they thinking?

  • Julie
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now we’re talking. What a beauty!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Heresy!!!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    If you’re ever in SW Michigan, check out the Gilmore Car Museum. They have some really cool stuff.

    https://www.gilmorecarmuseum.org/visit-explore-2/collections/

  • Julie

    SPX at 61.8% retracement with decreasing volume SPY. Waiting to pounce short
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    We have to be mindful that we are positioned against Mole 😉
    have to manage carefully

  • Tomcat

    Looks like furniture to me, but different lens I guess

  • Julie

    There are just a handful of Duesenbergs left worldwide. A guy in Oregon has one. He brings it yearly to the Concourse De Elegance Car Show in Forest Grove OR. Unbelievable to see. One of the premiere car shows in the U.S.
    JULIE

  • Julie

    TC I know the Chief is bullish oil.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Look at those headlights (whistle).

  • Tomcat
  • Julie

    XHB Targets for bounce (1) 41.56 matching the baseline (21) 41.53 (2) 42 matching the 21 ema (3)42.90 matching the daily 55 ema approx 42.82 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff4b85adf0bbd9250eff186600778eedf64bf31e526bbbb09a00a859543ce657.png However XHB could reverse here at the conversion line (8) at 41.20 JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    yep…..these pigmen own both side of the congress aisle……

  • ridingwaves

    ohhh nothing…just another bullet point on govt. waste, so they spent 4 years coming up with dodd-frank, it would have taken about 4 hours to reinstate glass steagal…..waste, waste, waste….our congress critters in action

    “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Jefferson wrote. “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around (these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…

  • Julie

    SPY Decreasing and poop volume and below a now flattening 50 sma. IMO nothing bullish about this. Getting ready to pounce short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e413edb39abf4ac51e126c0b771d97ed551622a1e4cb6fe5bd31ae2fcf9a37aa.png

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    that is gorgeous. Wow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This woman gets it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Quite a knock-down drag out ranging equity fuckaroo going on..

  • Lugman

    Doesn’t volume always tend to be less after a “reaction” low? Dunno what else to call it, but you can clearly see it from your chart. There is something akin to exhaustion volume spike after a move down, after which comparable volume is always declining? Thoughts?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Lugman

    Not much to do, I am long crude, sp and gold. So just watching my positions turn into various shades of green. Gold btw thanks to your reminder of it. That is the main reason I subscribe to zero (besides the indicator ofc). I dont always have the time or the mental capacity to keep tabs on things, and reading your blog posts daily gives me timely reminders on what to keep an eye on. Thanks for that!

  • ridingwaves

    Us surfers coveted those in So Cal back in the day….Saw some tricked out beauty’s..couldn’t afford it so opted for the 66 chevy station wagon
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83502f183ce5ae3e792419a5005d0324d6b851845ee11b78a37a2a6732b1e673.jpg

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    i would love to own that, but since I am NOT a mechanic at all, I will have to pass. I do love antique real wood furniture also.

  • HD

    in other news BTC lost $1000 today

  • HD

    $SPX still 2731 pivot. Wednesday: the ADP, trade deficit, Beige book and consumer credit.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there’s a guy driving around town, with a roof rack. in the desert!
    rare.

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/40/bf/b7/40bfb787f604eecca8801ae223d3673a–love-bugs-vw-bug.jpg

  • Julie

    RW Get about 9 people in the car with boards on top. Wow ! great fun !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    9 broads, now *that’s* fun.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    that is also very nice and well kept. Beautiful. I was a teenager in the late 1950’s. Lots of nice older cars kept beautiful by their drivers.

  • ridingwaves

    yep, and it was fun to go off road and do some dirt track banking on the way to the beach with 9 guys in it….not to bad on pickin up hotties at the keg parties back in the day either….no one cared if you owned a mercedes, Jag or whatever….

  • BobbyLow

    I’m “tiptoeing” through the tulips/minefield very carefully. 🙂

  • Julie

    RW The only time I ever got arrested was at a kegger. Tried to run away and tripped on a sprinkler and the cops nabbed me. The call to Mom and Dad not good ! I was 19 and in college. Too much !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Once everyone holding long has been blown out dip buyers only slowly come back to the table. Quite frankly volume per se is not something I put a lot of attention to as it has never worked well for me. Instead I look at volume profiles, which tell me where support and resistance zones may be located.

  • HD

    agree, it’s the most complacent product ever. People literally don’t care if it loses 10,000 or 1,000

  • Lugman

    Yeah exactly. If declining (comparably to recent low) volume keeps you away, then you won’t be long any of the best rallies.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This essential range since early February, give-or-take.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WOW – that’s a lot more than I was hoping for today. Segue to my point regarding lack of liquidity… this shit happens regularly in crypto currencies including bitcoin.

  • BobbyLow

    Closed ERX at BE. Will look at it again tomorrow. Back to all cash.

  • Julie

    SEDG This high flyer breaks out but not with confirming volume Looking for a failure JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd24fff58b48afd7c6e4e8b897fc04829cdc1634fe23699b1093c0e7450f04e9.png

  • Julie

    BL I too am in cash except for a long RIOT. IMO sidelines place to be Clarity IMO will be shortly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I wonder if you could fibonacci extension that one? EDIT( to guesstimate the top level)
    need a bit larger chart.

  • BobbyLow

    What I can’t understand is why? They sound like the Gold Bugs of a few years ago when people were hoarding gold because cash would be no good in the not too distant future. Gold was going to not only exceed $2,000 but exceed 3, 4, $5,000 and beyond as it currently sits in the $1,300’s.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..because the DOW/Gold ratio was sky high crazy in 2001, and it was going to <5. Any wise man could see that house flipping was a craze and going to end badly. Yes!?

    instead, a dead cat bounce occurred 2011. but HEY, I'm not bitter. no.
    ;-|

    https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/sites/default/files/dow-gold-ratio-1901-2017-bullionvault.png

  • Julie

    Yeah GG The 1.272 is 52.28 the 1.414 is 52.86 using 51.20 (high) and 47.20 (low) Good reminder GG Thanks
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    We’re on the same page Julie.

    Way too too foggy for me at this point especially with the “Game of Thrones” before and after the oil report tomorrow.

  • Julie

    GG 53.67 is the 1.618 extension
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Because it is nothing. Tulips are at least tangible

  • BobbyLow

    It was 2011 when Gold hit its highest price ever of $1,900.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s probably the best answer because the entire markets are full of shit at all times anyway. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    The only wise men and women that couldn’t see that the housing bubble was going to end badly were the smartest people in the room of the big and small banks. They got their finance degrees at Wharton and other prestigious business schools and made a tons of money before the “Oh Shit Moment” came that lending money to people who had no chance in hell of ever paying it back was going to eventually blow the countries financial system to hell. This was about as stupid and greedy as stupid and greedy gets.

  • HD

    How you like that 2731 pivot! Wowza.

  • HD

    News marks TIME

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like Chief Economic Advisor Cohn’s resignation is shaking up equity futures. Cohn was against Tariffs.

    We’ll see what tomorrow morning looks like and if this downturn holds up. In the meantime, cash will sleep well tonight. 🙂

  • HD

    Hey Bobby! I’m having a really good year, today 🙂

    You guys have really improved my trading, POV, confidence and I am very appreciative. This is going to be an epic year. Gracias Amigos

  • BobbyLow

    Glad to hear it HD and congratulations! You have lots of good stuff working for you.

    I’ve also had a great start for 2018 and have had the most consistent stress free performance for the first 10 weeks of any year since I’ve been doing this stuff. My main responsibility right now is to remain focussed, not get reckless, and continue to follow my own rules.

    Mole sets the tone and we have a great bunch of traders here that help keep the Evil Speculator both informative and exciting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GE death watch.
    ..doing well this week. A place to be wary, yes – they tried to talk it up yesterday.
    Fibonacci Level.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8028774dd8057b8b730e70d81591c9c37ca78b3df2e713203c3ed09ae09d3b8.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    AMAT A textbook ABC from mid November to mid February. An impulse from mid February to present. AMAT now going up into a resistance . If it fails here the 38.2% retracement matches the 55 ema. 50% retracement matches the 89 ema 61.8% retracement matches the 144 ema The 89 ema not shown JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce6d766faf120915054e2fc8ba31e22a7e82316c5b56fcc72d56592764451d24.png

  • Darkthirty

    The harder you grip water, the less you retain

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Baltimore has a rising income,
    I don’t see the problem.
    bastards should stop buying latte’s.
    😉 (GG ducks)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHIMD24510A052NCEN

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    That’s what *he* said.