Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Still Room To The Top
71

Still Room To The Top

by The MoleFebruary 22, 2017

It’s lonely at the top, so the saying goes. But we’re not even at the top yet and I am already noticing a distinct lack of good company. I was pondering a bit yesterday on the fact that I hadn’t seen a single joyful comment regarding the ongoing two week plus rally, especially given that there hasn’t been a single attempt to produce an obligatory correction. What I did notice was a heck of a lot of chatter regarding the miners and pretty much everything else. The big elephant on the trading floor remains to be this relentless equities advance which for some reason is barely being talked about. Not counting of course the obligatory MSM clickbait attributing it to Trump, a flurry of sun spots, the Easter bunny, or whatever. 

And my suspicion is that the lack of attention may be a symptom of the very lack of participation that has been fueling the ongoing rally in the first place. I’m quite comfortable to proclaim at this point that almost nobody hopped on the bus two weeks ago, perhaps due to ideological reasons, personal opinions, directional bias, or various other reasons. Except yours truly of course and perhaps a handful of stone cold system traders. Because technically speaking this one was clear as crystal. And I’m not talking about the extent of the rally, which nobody could have predicted, but about the inflection point that had presented itself at a moment when very few participants apparently had paid attention.

2017-02-22_ES_update

And to the victor belong the spoils, or perhaps in this case it’s a matter of being one of the last men standing? [yeah I’m not changing that for the sake of political correctness]. As I’m now 6R+ in profits I’m now tightening things up a little by moving my trailing stop to below 2345 – an easy number to remember 😉

2017-02-22_corn_update

Corn just rolled over into June and I’m having problems charting the new contract for some reason. But of course that’s the one we’re trading and if you took the March contract then it’s time to roll it. That new spike low actually plays hugely in our favor and with a bit of luck and Scotch tape we ought to be on a roll here soon!

2017-02-22_cable_update

No such luck on cable this far although the current formation would become extremely useful later down the line if it manages to produce a convincing jump higher. Well, alea iacta est – I’m not touching this one right now and my ISL remains in place.

2017-02-22_gold

Gold is looking like a long to me here with a stop below 1226.8. The odds are mixed but IF it can breach above its daily Net-Line Buy Level then we are good to go until 1300. Half an R devoted to this one only because…

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Kidd Cudi

    I traded the rally via OTM call options on SPY and DIA, which are up 1000% right now. Just don’t like crowing about my successes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Is that a black swan???

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crowing about it would be the other extreme.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Ski vacation, new job and extensive travel the past month. No chance to continue work on my system, so standing aside. I check in when I can.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sounds cool nonetheless 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners nearing first objectives.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, practically arrived at short miners objectives but a fair amount of technical damage done to the sector.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot volatility, tight stop. Looks poised to jump…but what else is new? To me looks like equities are now a slowly-inserting sharp knife.

  • StockTalker

    Nice looking short signal, see if it holds up.

  • ridingwaves

    CL ceiling is puncture proof….that SOB is just trendless…..about to sell out and move on to better trade

  • BobbyLow

    Congrats on the E-mini Trade Mole. I wish I could have ridden it with you. E-mini’s are the fairest game of them all.

    However, I don’t know what the intitial stop was but if it was 20 Points that’s $1,000 on one contract and some of us are not in a position to have a $1,000 R. If we want to play the equity side, we’re stuck with SPY, SSO, SDS etc, or the worst devil of them all – Options. (Notwithstanding the excellent performance that Kidd Cudi had which were OTM Lottery Tickets that paid off.) 🙂

    So here is the kicker. On most E-mini trades, when you set a stop you are stopped out at or very close to your stop with rare exception. The rest of us suckers left to trading SPY etc., and are subject to gigantic gaps that can either wipe out substantial profits in a heart beat overnight or put us in a hole right away. For lack of a better explanation I would like to describe my feeling about trading equities as “Whipped Dog Syndrome” meaning that after so many whippings, I had to look for other trading vehicles.

    I congratulate those who can consistently trade SPY etc., succesfully. I’ve tried trading equities by almost every way imaginable and have failed miserably so a tip of the cap to you.

    The reality is that trading is the one of the most difficult things to do and the game is made even more difficult for the smaller player.

    When it comes to trading things like the gold miners, I believe that they are more stable to trade than trading Gold ETF’s (Because of wicked gaps) unless you can afford to trade /GC at $100 a point. Regarding trades of the 3X NUGT, DUST, UGAZ, or DGAZ and 2X UCO or SCO, I trade the actual ETN’s or ETF’s. However, I treat them mentally as if they were Options that have a Delta and a Beta. They also have only a minimal amount of Theta and no Vega. Above all, unlike real options they do not expire.

    So I guess the bottom line is for the reasons mentioned above, I’m stuck doing what I gotta do. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    This fucker is being a royal pain in the ass. But I’m hedged and will hang in there net long until my lens says that it’s a short. Perhaps the Big Boyz will tire of this road to nowhere and allow either sellers or buyers to gain control for more than a day.

  • Ronebadger

    What are you referring to…chart?

  • ridingwaves

    just seems to be no mojo to push up and dollar rally is hardening the ceiling

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes.

  • StockTalker

    Zero

  • BobbyLow

    We are in week 6 of this current malaise which is probably on the outer edge of the norm in duration of directionless oil prices. Just like most patterns, there can be outliers so maybe we have more misery to go. Time will tell, but take a look at the daily on CL and go back as many years as you can. I think you’ll find at least one if not two similar periods of time each year when this directionless price action has happened.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed short miners …for time being.

  • OJuice

    In a ripping up-trend, why are you constantly looking for short entries?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Typical equity time correction behavior, but volatility looks like the sleeper trade. I’m standing aside for time being to preserve mental capital, the erosion of which is all part of the game.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Re-entered short miners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    CNBC …not your friend.
    http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_75227254.?1487733743

  • OJuice

    To play devils advocate, if you haven’t been stopped out, and conditions haven’t materially changed, do you really want to exit your position?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    It’s funny how some things never change. They told everybody to buy the high and Qualcom was going to trade at $2,000 per share and then told everyone to sell the low “after” the Tech Bubble Burst. Cramer was the worst. They do the the same thing with every bubble.

    CNBC can be dangerous to your financial health and anyone who follows the Evil Speculator knows more than CNBC Pundits.

  • ridingwaves

    devils advocates are good! My stop is not too much below but I think there are more profitable plays with that money, plus I’m in the money already…

    the upside is limited as the gap above is the only thing making me like it…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems like if we get no equity downside mojo fairly soon, we will need to do some upside exhaustion motion.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited….for time being.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The Sky, it’s the only way..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1GmgE7Men0

  • Mark Shinnick

    Would be an excellent FU to retail….and the CNBC sentinels..

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Want to be proven right?

  • ridingwaves

    trying long volatility, I have a turn date today as cycle high….
    S is .25c below

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I don’t get it. Why? The long VIX instruments are designed to be shorted probs at least 90% of the time

  • Edd

    Miners trade, gotta luv it. monthly OPEX price action, predictable as a FED day and sun rise in the am.
    NUGT DUST 10min chart – doesnt get any better or easier today than that!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…almost there myself.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, that was wild right there, so re-bot short miners.

  • StockTalker

    Been long for 4 years. How about you? It is that time

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed out again on that swing.

  • Edd

    My trading diary shows that out of 20 trading days there will be on average 2-3 days like today that will pay for the tedious, back and forth, whipsawing price action but you have to suffer through to reap it when it comes

  • Edd

    I`ll flip to DUST at close above 28.72. out NUGT at 11.35

  • Mark Shinnick

    All still looks generally supportive for dust position.

  • Edd

    Agreed for now. I exited my daily DUST today at 29.59. I will re enter
    and hold over night if it closes at or above 28.63

  • Yoda

    Gartman jinxed it yesterday by stating that he is long CL.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, rolled that dice, tight stop. Really has to perform or its time for some serious upside gaps IMHO.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I did suggest call options as well as volatility was (and remains) low.

  • BobbyLow

    I was looking for an entry on Dust at a close near today’s daily high but it looks like I’ll have to wait.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes this is one of those times when Call Options would have worked out great. But c’est la vie. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    XLF rolls over and it will really help this trade….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gosh…if we get some exhaustion gaps.. the puts could be fabulous.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent point.

  • BobbyLow

    The equity market and exhaustion have been mutually exclusive in 2017. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside..for now.

  • OJuice

    I’m not clear on the context of your question. Are you asking me if I want to be proven right?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Entered Again one more time here very very tight stop.

  • OJuice

    I guess its not really worth discussing if you are only going to speak in hyperboles…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside.

  • ridingwaves

    man your quick, I’m even….

    XLF is hitting weeky resistance….if it busts thru, my stop will take care of the pain…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Time seems so ripe for a upside exhaustion.

  • OJuice

    I agree there are definitely better trades out there. There are cases for both sides and price action isn’t providing much clarity. I was just giving you shit. ;0)

  • Edd

    Flat for now

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Not referring to you OJ, I just can’t find a reason to be playing VIX long products intraday when the trend is straight down. Swimming up a dam really.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • OJuice

    Agreed.

  • BobbyLow

    We’ll see what happens tommorow but Crude Price went up after the API Report that was just released.

    “United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 9.94M to -0.884M”

    https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-api-weekly-crude-oil-stock-fell-from-previous-994m-to-0884m-201702222140

    These reports are usually Bullshit but if the Boyz are looking for a reason to jerk price back up on Thursday, they have it. LMAO

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I certainly hope so! A bunch of stuffed suits over at that place. I can’t believe it’s still around.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    one of my goals this yr is to see whether a fade Gartman RBT can be done

  • Darkthirty

    “relentless equities advance, which for some reason is barely being talked about”. Well, IMHO, that’s it in a nutshell. How many hours can you watch a magician levitate before it’s extremely boring. The clockwork orange aversion therapy has been a success! Scalping this is even getting boring, 10 up, 2 down, random 6 pt ramps on no volume…ad nauseum. Coho are biting, and at least they have a discernable pattern……….

  • james

    even the Fed can’t be bothered (last FOMC)

    – A Few Participants Said Increase in Equity Prices Might Reflect Unrealistic Policy Expectations

    – Some Officials Concerned Low Market Volatility Appeared Inconsistent With Policy Uncertainty

    “almost nobody hopped on the bus two weeks ago”

    you are very right it was mostly short covering (liquidations of big short gamma over 2300)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Strange, every time the market starts getting very easy retail complaints. And then things get difficult again and retail complaints again.