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Stop Out Friday
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Stop Out Friday

by The MoleMay 11, 2018

Increased Dollar weakness has had a cleansing effect across several of my open campaigns. And that’s fine as a rebound in forex opens up new entry opportunities. Plus given recent volatility across all sectors I don’t enjoy heading into the weakness holding a boatload of exposure. Let’s see where we’re at:

The one survivor is the E-Mini which is now starting to look very positive. If we see continuation today then the current short squeeze could easily accelerate starting next week.

My trail is now at 1.3R but still over 1R away from the current MFE. Also let’s not forget that I already squeezed out 1.5R on the initial leg up. Good times 😉

As suspected gold was waiting for a breather on the dollar side as the USD/JPY is now heading lower. My trail here has been advanced from break/even to about 1R. Again I’m giving this one enough space to run.

Let’s not sugarcoat it – corn is looking like a stop out at ISL. Things on the daily panel are looking messy now, thus lowering the probability for a clean dip and pop higher.

The one that irks me a bit this morning is soybean oil, which is starting to look like the one that got away this week. I was hoping for a dip lower to 30.86 but it actually turned right at my diagonal support line (which I had drawn previously).

Odds here now support a run and squeeze higher, so if you’re in this one do nothing and let her run.

Not surprisingly my DX campaign has finally come to an end. Boy that was a fun one which netted me 10R in ill-gotten gains. A re-entry sometime next week is a possibility. Already I’m seeing a lot of Euro bullishness in the MSM, which leads me to believe that continuation higher in the Dollar is a possibility.

Similarly USD/JPY is a stop out at break/even but again I think the fat lady hasn’t sung here yet. This is a pretty bullish looking pattern on the daily panel.

And finally cable is a goner too which is a bit surprising given the dip in the Dollar. Not sure what’s going on but we knew that this one was a risky play due to lack of daily context, thus I only deployed 0.3% – not much lost.

Now the EUR/USD is a long entry either today or Monday if it decided to pull back one more time and retest its 100-hour SMA. For that eventuality I’ve got a limit order set to fill at 1.19075 or better.

Enjoy Your Weekend

I got up early this morning and strolled to our beautiful mercado central here in Valencia to pick up a nice collection of Bavarian Hefeweizen goodness.

So I’m more than amply prepared to enjoy another gorgeous spring weekend. I hope that, wherever you are, you’ll do be doing the same.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Darkthirty

    After taking an objective look at the “market” and US politics, I immediately drew a parallel to the movie idiocracy……….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, hard to know the chicken or egg.

  • Darkthirty

    the rooster…. Was thinking 1984 – Brave New World – Atlas Shrugged, but Idiocracy is closer to current reality

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL BKX Mark I had a buy signal GLD last Friday on a chart I use exclusively for GLD JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99c0294763acf9ab50657245ba1afb121292f73547a8ee27f77351835ecf98e4.png

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of Gold, one thing I’m doing with /MGC Futures that I couldn’t afford to do with /GC is to put in at least a 15 to 20 Point Initial Stop and then even widening my stop more if price moves in my favor. There’s a lot of, as Scott used to say “Fuckery that can go on over night with Gold”. I’m doing the same thing with Wheat Futures /XW. Market Stops go off at Mark Price and while overnight trading is extra thin on Mini Futures, I think it’s a good idea to allow for wider spreads that can fuck with Mark Prices and consequently wipe out tight stops.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    was I surprised?…. ;-D

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99995300468
    Julie, Wave 3 completed. LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, I can see the attraction.
    It’s looking extreme, as in throw in the towel.
    I suppose if you are looking for a gap close, a what the hell is in order.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GILD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80969621987

    ps. do have a stop, look at 2013, it could always go lower depending on forward valuation(s).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this chart looks like a feline scratching post.
    -1

  • BobbyLow

    I didn’t pull the long trigger until Tuesday. Now we’ll see if this move has any legs or fizzle out. I’m up about 9 Points as of this moment but that can dissappear in a heartbeat. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    YUP GG An extended wave 3 per post yesterday Now watch for an approx. 23.6%retracement for wave 4 waves 2 thru 3
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    you know Al is a silver guy. It’s the poor man’s gold. I am in. thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I can’t count that high subjectively speaking.
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    I think I’d rather invest in some “Tulip Bulbs” instead. At least I could plant them someday. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    VZ,
    out, for a quickie long win.

  • HD

    Nice charts and trades Mole. I didn’t realize the EUR did a triangle too. hmm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    SPX, what a rally, could get a PB from this level. 27(34) some -D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Peanut Butter?..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good one GG VZ a 50% retracement
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Pull Back Gotta know HD’s and myself language Now get with the program LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Yul Brenner was great as was Paul Newman. Both were philanthropists
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO resistance now 14.41
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think that’s a rare turn around for me.
    short cover, then long sell out.
    I’m a bad bad boy!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m sorry.
    I DON’T SPEAK EW/BLONDE!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In this present market only thing you can do other than be on the sidelines. Like you I mostly trade individual stocks and do very well
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Is that what they call it? I want to be an entrepreneur & philanthropist too!

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Lgv3BFyTAyg/Uzle895dHpI/AAAAAAAAATY/JX5QQgI-52o/s1600/blogger-image–976611120.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, I got lucky on this one.
    As you may or may not know, the telecom industry is awry with the TMobile-Spring merger.

    Given a quick long view on the general market, I speculated even the blue chip losers, would give up dropping and put in a sympathetic bounce.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Reiterating yesterday resistance 31.08 support 30.42 A bearish close below 30.42 will re short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e6f4c2fda35d5f6f90f5b83ab97b356d4f9e105a544b5e558b1a35df8a943d0.png

  • ridingwaves

    someone broke out gold trading via London and NY and then just Shanghai…you would be way ahead if you just played the Shanghai hours….where the real gold buyers are, not the paper buyers or banks…

  • ridingwaves

    corpocracy is the meme…get used to it….
    signed, the Elites

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole’s post yesterday got me wondering about my actual performance. I
    usually don’t keep stats. Here is the quick summary for this year:
    Number of TVIX points gained: 8.07, Win/Loss 17:19, Avg win/loss ratio
    was 0.69 : 0.19. Account +104%. The reason stats don’t mean as much to
    me is that I know the number of losses would be lower but for the fact
    that once I use buying power during a day, I don’t have margin to help
    me get it back for a correct stop out. Many times I found myself letting
    a small winner turn into a small loser (for sure) before I pulled it
    off since I viewed them as opportunity lost during a precious period of
    opportunity. That said, looking at 10 year chart of NQ last night was a
    sobering reminder for a guy who dosn’t really believe in stocks that you
    are pissing in the wind with that mindset. I like playing VIX when it
    is elevated but for long periods it is a dead trade, thus it almost
    looks like vacation time for me if the MKT moves much further. I wish
    there was a retail instrument that goes UP as fast as TVIX goes down but
    there is not. Scalp shorting TVIX is probably a great play going
    forward and Mole has the golden idea there. Long scalping is kind of
    useless. I may continue to take some shots but it is garbage man kind of
    stuff. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/46a43e1e0dfda2919c6884390fc000a30c24901d1b9afa7472befb77752fbdcb.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    most excellent!
    the win/loss ratio is break even.

    the secret sauce is: you are winning bigger than losing. Bravo sir!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Yes You beat me to it … going to say the same thing
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    and the garbage man is trying L TVIX 5.55 today 1R, small position left from yesterday same. Probably pissing in the wind.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL RW I recently read an article that oil (USO) is best traded in backwardation . Not sure about wheat
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes, it really is that simple. Scott pounded that into my head. That is why I said a few times I could trade a monkey’s entries now. It is all in the sell, not the buy. I have a rule set. My system also has a 10% draw down 1 month stop out which hasn’t come close to being hit. Closest was a 6% area hit

  • ridingwaves

    wheat was going to be a long term trade as it’s bottom bouncing….I took a 1/3 off at the spike about to reenter the 1/3 the rising 100 is important inflection, it it goes below it….I’m out..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Just got back from the gym and now it’s coding time. Outside my window there are a bunch of young girls dancing salsa which makes it very hard to concentrate 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    I crunched some basic stats for you below regarding your post.

  • ridingwaves

    Damn, I love salsa, the music and the dancing….

    that is the way to stay young, dance like their is no tomorrow….better than tai chi by far….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a bull friend who (shall remain anonymous) says bullish till mid-June.

    we shall see.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p65308907669&a=519599517

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $WHEAT Could bounce now off the 21 ema and small gap. Also the support coinciding with the 34 ema The pullback from 540 looks corrective and short term oversold JULIEhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d88c95966d7d4ee4f5d3cc3a3bc0bc4b816e1a81c31b69f5c30382b241820c3b.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d88c95966d7d4ee4f5d3cc3a3bc0bc4b816e1a81c31b69f5c30382b241820c3b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing great Chief ! Thanks for everything !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I looked back when Bush was president at trying to find Corn or wheat ETFs. I think I found a few things, but nothing good for my fit. I need a 3X corn or wheat so I can finish breakfast in 5 seconds. No futures, no margin, no shorting. Anything exist that you know of? (thanks)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It would be nice if Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) traded more volume.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    My cycles guy had a 40 week low in mid may. as of monday there were 2 weeks left for what that is worth. Then SPX 3K is is call

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Same with wheat futures. I love the big moves but it’s impossible to get an entry before it takes off. And of course you always get filled just ahead of a shake out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I could tell you some stories but my wife may read the blog ;-P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX WEAT for wheat but trades few shares not to my liking CORN and SOYB same thing.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I figured nothing changed. thanks

  • BKXtoZERO

    Paging Dr. RW……. Paging Dr. RW….. TSLA spike and little reversal going on

  • ridingwaves

    I get the gist of it…Salsa stories usually center around dark eyed olive skin beauty’s…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this one’s for you Big Guy.

    let that RSI sub 30 (in the near future) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6079a3006ec958848614ca2de36f6a8bc98a594d059b18de95ba498e0750be2f.png
    sit and simmer for a while. Pick Your Battles.
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    It’s a similar thing with Forex time wise and one of the main reasons why I stopped trading it. Although I’ve changed my time frames many times, my system has remained basically the same which is relatively short term trend and momentum plays. Things start cooking in the Asian market late evening my time and the European Market around 5 to 6 AM my time. So for my purposes by the time the NYSE opens the EURO has been in strong play for about 3 hours. And if I want to mess with the Yen, it would be nice to be able to watch it develop in the late evening up to around midnight or 1 AM. So I had to decide if I wanted to have a decent nights sleep or trade Forex with my system. I chose sleep. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDX 22.55 is now my stop on remaining 1/4 long position GDX Will hold over weekend
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie but because my trades are relatively short term, I stopped reading stuff like this. 🙂 Speaking of Wheat, I was receiving a newsletter on grains awhile back and all that did was throw me off balance and make me feel uneasy. I stopped the news letter and just did my thing stalking price and my current short is up 18 Points. Price and momentum told me when to get in and price and momentum will tell me when to get out.

  • HD

    10 HanDle PB! I needed that one. 1/2 off

  • HD

    That 10 handle hit matches yesterday’s 10 handle hit and also first overlap since 2655

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ask him if he could stretch to 42 week cycle.
    that would align with the 10 week down, and (now) 10 week up thinking.
    for a June peak.

  • ridingwaves

    I like sleep too but damn how do you do it when you get old…..my clock is more messed up than a drug addict with a table of drugs in front of him…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short equities.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like you do a great job intra day. I’ve tried doing what you’re doing and I just don’t have the stomach for it anymore. It takes nerves of steel and staying power. Good for you. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Yesterday’s pop I was looking for approx 2750. HMMM ! My original target was 2702.78 as posted. Now a bearish close below 2702 i.e. upper cloud boundary (a support) will be the short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/31434a20b6bc70d07b4e1361ee9a9ef618901614385c75143635a3a4bd54d92c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dude, get it in gear.
    time mark 12:40 – shift workers, twice the risk of cancer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6KClPkotxM

  • Ronebadger

    We may eventually call this a Bear Flag from April 1…gotta let it play out

  • HD

    TY. Just simple Fibonacci. I didn’t get much of the rally and ate a few stops so I was due. Ha.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I have stated IMO the triangle is not complete as it has not gone 75% to the apex. This could still be the D leg with a slight overthrow. A slight overthrow could mean a slight underthrow on the E leg. A nice short on the possible E leg down could be setting up. A curve ball guys like what Wall Street does Too bullish sentiment presently https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/add18c25c803a35f49c3a517b8f81616308693db116ee518bd590ed47cadf627.png JULIE

  • HD

    Don’t give up on the D leg for your triangle.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    See my post above HD
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya. A few things that I do is to try to turn ALL THINGS off that have any chance of giving me negative vibes by 10 PM. Then I’ll go to bed and watch some mindless TV. (No Politics) LOL. I’ll either watch some crime show like Bosch that will get me sleepy or watch some old history show about WW2 that I’ve seen a hundred times. There’s nothing like a Brit talking in a very soft tone. . . By the time 11PM comes around, I can’t keep my eyes open anymore and I’m off to sleep.

    When I eventually have to wake up to go pee, I try not to allow any thoughts in except peeing. 🙂 If any negative thoughts try to get in, I’ll try to overpower them with something positive. This usually works and I’m good until it’s time to get up and start my day.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can you tell me the chart length for the VIX buy/sell signals? is it 20 days? 2.0 bollinger, 1 close out, 1 close in, then one that closes above or below next? just unsure of # days, chart length. Thanks.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Are you L or S …or ?

  • nirav777
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have been trading individual stocks Mark and per a previous post stated I have no position SPX because of the triangle as they are the most difficult pattern of all to trade. However now about to short SPX per chart directly below.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX could be 3 waves or legs up from the April low for the ABC of the D leg of the triangle.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Try your triangle with A at 2800, whole different picture………………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Signal is pretty small (i.e. < -0.5) but price seems to be responding. I'd wait with longs until we see a bullish divergence.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m flat.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Please refresh Had to edit above post as I misread his chart
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Reset your triangle with A at 2800

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    On Fridays/Weekends I review weekly charts.

    the last 6 weeks, while highly entertaining, refused to ‘roll over’ AND STAY, under the 38sma.
    the weekly trend continues. all the weak hands shaken out, we will see if they creep back in.
    FOMO is a powerful thing.

    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83238303354
    -GG

  • Ronebadger

    BB (20,2,0) VIX Sell Signal is 3 steps:
    1) Close below the lower BB
    2) Close above the lower BB, next day
    3) Higher close the next day, above Step 2 close

    Is that helping you?

    * Opposite for a VIX Buy Signal. (Experience shows Buy Signals work better than Sell)

    (Right Mole?)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark Good idea on SPX. I am short USO (very small position0 Long GDX with 1/4 remaining position after taking profits yesterday 22.55 stop on the 1/4 remaining. Closed out XPO for a nice gain. Have not gone long M yet (on radar screen) M needs a bullish close above 29.89. GILD per post below and last evening want a close above 66.15 for a long up to it’s declining 21 ema approx. 69. BAC I will re short with a bearish close below support at 30.42 as stated in a chart and comments below. Mark Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Should reverse at RSI (5) $ INDU 60 minute

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Remember Guys it’s Friday. Friday’s are usually neutral to positive. Thus the neutral stall
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    It doesn’t do much volume but I think it does average over a 100,000 shares. The relatively small volume was a concern to me at first because I didn’t want to be in a position to where I could only go long because it would probably be difficult to find shares to short. But what I ended up doing was shorting the Futures /XW when it called for a short and when it calls for a long, I’ve bought both WEAT and Long /XW. I’ve also found that the spread between Bid and Ask on WEAT to be very tight and fair.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys ….. A gentle reminder Sunday is Mother’s Day. We do like flowers; a nice card ; breakfast in bed ; going out to dinner. BUT we really like shopping sprees. Niemann Marcus ; Nordstrom’s : Macy’s ; Sak’s Fifth Ave. You know those high end places I mean guys … In all seriousness … The money that all of you have made this year !
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yes, this is correct.

  • BKXtoZERO

    just need the time frame of that chart. (had all the rest) One of moles posts showed a 6 month chart with VIX signal post, but I think text said 20 days. Bollingers different for different time periods so just wanting clarification on time. Thanks.

  • Darkthirty

    Hot oil massage………..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reshort.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    That too … BUT The larger and more gift cards the wider the smile. LOL !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I dumped a woman with a few million …… She had no soul

  • Ronebadger

    Not sure about any time frame reference or requirement.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    DK I am very fortunate I have the greatest husband a woman could ever have . Would marry him a million times if I could. Only one husband for me. You and your lady Have A Great Mother’s Day
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the reminder. I will stop by and get her the best that Walgreen’s has to offer! remember the episode where Al makes a lot of money in a poker game? he knows that Peg knows, so he buys her a cheap gift, then he goes and buys an expensive fishing rod. (he he he he)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I spend all my time making $$$, and you want me to hand it over?

    Cut out the middle-man. I’ll give straight out time.

    https://www.thesimpledollar.com/the-mothers-day-debate-and-eight-sensible-ways-to-solve-it/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX We know a guy that bought his wife a chainsaw for her birthday. In the garage was a new car for her ! A great one as we were invited to a surprise party for her.and we all hid
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG An I Love You from husband and children is all we need !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    LONG LIVE HABIB!

  • HD

    so I should go turkey hunting Sunday? 😉

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Take her with you.after you give her multiple gift cards ; breakfast in bed ; flowers ; a nice card and dinner when you both get back . Then the hot oil massage in all the right places ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Weird day…for some internal human factor need to figure out could not execute.

  • Darkthirty

    If you drop it down to catch the top at 2725, E should be complete. Bottom line starting at 2550 and passing 2600

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone going short SPX below 2717 support.? Stop above today’s high. Not much risk for a possible nice reward. SPX overbought with SPY volume greater on the declines from end of January than the advances I may put a toe in the water EOD (small probe) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa10cee94f94a008573c8fc13d4558161b2172c426e57024740926ea60aaeec5.png JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not much justification for shorting right now….would be scalping only I imagine.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RSI at 60 where previous declines occurred i.e. pattern recognition. IMO worth a shot . Again not much risk
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    The weather has changed.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If it is about to close below 2717 into the close and the shorts do not cover at the close …. Yes the weather has changed. Holding 2717 very important
    JULIE

  • HD

    It could be, my rules don’t allow for E to go above C. That is what I was tracking earlier and let go above https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b22f7f6ca7157b86c9acfa9eeb4ba0c83bd06f7afc83793b249282077c4f9b4.png 2683

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY volume pattern has a bearish bias as stated in above post with chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7df42d8bff155086c660acb5188cfb68d0ad8be411a4c70127ed0fa518b0c13f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    M I showed this chart yesterday or the day before. Retail has been outperforming. M down to it’s 89 ema (hammer candle0 : support and oversold with a MACD centerline test. RSI at approx.45 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fa66d77797fa417054bbb74af1271e63b90e77c8e8a0394102b932441f26dbe.png A bullish close above it’s 5 ema approx. 29.91 and I am in for a long Target 32 JULIE

  • HD

    paralysis by analysis?

  • Mark Shinnick

    The systems take care of that…this is like a internal clock out-of-phase with realtime.

  • HD

    Ok here’s my vote for ugliest (dirtiest, not bullish or bearish, no clue) chart, what do you have? SILVER
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/078bf921af98d40401502c1f372e914bebfaa0d19d1c352b5aa7f533de0438e3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Yo is a winner !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    To me its beautiful; nothing to do.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I love silver, own some physical from 8$. I have been watching, dead money for the longest time. I just bought some USLV as a place to park gains…. I wish I knew. One boring symbol for a LONG time now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Fence Post Turtle 3? find out Monday I guess. I took off half VIX position from yesterday. small ding 5.5 to 5.4. Left 1R on. I don’t have as good of a feeling on this one. My guess is a gap or run to 2750 then some reaction there. Perhaps not. If it fails again, I got me some. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95f4447dea61275293141786fe3b2f2a90c0b650a2a769d1b1a3b5187405d3c8.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Back from lunch. I am in for a try with 1R

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See how easy men are in comparison – all we need is a quick BJ and we’re good to go.

  • Ronebadger

    Today we received our 3rd VIX Step One Sell Signal in a row. Three closes below the lower BB. This can go on, and on…as the market melts up…seen it before.

    VIX now below 13. Smells like a low volume, short squeeze…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Updated daily chart resistance 14.46 support 14.23 and the daily 5 ema approx. 14.22. Want a bearish close below 14,22 Weekly chart bearish divergences RSI and MACD Daily and weekly charts overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb5aeeec34bd6a14915e9e3cf95b9bff14c741b4391c2a77163b80d2645ddea4.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Weekly chart Overbought. Top of channel 50% retracement Negative divergences RSI ; MACD and CCI. Not much left guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec4d5be2cdce8c555359091163ed9c75e5d7da912a015bf64173359e378b9722.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The SPX is up approx. 1.9% since January 1st That is not a Bull Mkt Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $NYSI must get above 500 for the Bull Mkt to resume. A succession of lower highs above or approx. 500 indicates a possible end of the Bull Mkt JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6f6c9e840fd6c8d62fbc297481b1035bb493221631a02dcb6a24339d576147f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Listen up Guys …. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/905a14f0d884dc087ab80e26b9e4e38556f294fb4eb7c9e261a66d226ee6f650.png It is not the actual percentage rate of the 10 yr note that predisposes a recession BUT the nominal increase of the yield from a low Two pts off the low can be curtains The 10 year notes low July 2016 was approx. 1.4% Add 2 pts and 3.4 % There you have it guys …. The 10 year note at 3.4 % could be all she wrote ! JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie’s Yield Curve Exit Indicator When the slope goes negative (below 0) and the 5 ema crosses below the 21 ema https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f6439ae608320abf350d01cfb5a2c932a2b086aca02e16a6274eedfc1ec837c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys EPD Weekly chart Nice 2 yr consolidation. Consolidations such as this the Keltner Channel works great. If a confirmed breakout above approx. 28 and WOW ! The longer the consolidation the larger the breakout. BUT it could be a short approx. 28 You can see pattern recognition with the Keltner Channel : RSI and MACD Almost there guys Approaching overbought where previous reversals have occurred . Daily chart a reversal approx. 28 is the short Guys ! Let’s short EPD for some nice coin Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/461ca976cc79c76320c827d2752b24b768ccc50a2be0e6223acfb2815f597692.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Checkout GILD Remember I posted a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema and resistance 66.15 was a long up to 69. Well …. Friday a bullish candle (bullish engulf) closed 66 16 with strong volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/847edafe55bd7213f927f5bf53e23bb19a8f2891a24b0b476acf02444cb62eed.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Nib … Nib …. Nib … They call GILD The Nibbler ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    CSCO
    The Hottest DOW 30 stock YTD.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81447575831

    In a couple of a weeks, if the hotness continues.
    I will be checking in to see if is there divergence between price & weekly RSI.
    Yes-sir-ee.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81447575831
    I’m not looking to short the insanely strong, I’m looking for insane exuberance.
    -GG

  • Ronebadger

    Re: My post from Friday – “Today we received our 3rd VIX Step One Sell Signal in a row. Three closes below the lower BB.”

    I just went back 5 years and this has NEVER happened. Yes, there have been multiple closes in a row ABOVE the upper BB, but nothing like the past three days.

    Can anyone go back further than 5 years?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unprecedented, from what I can tell.

    visually, it’s a challenge to go find a repeat.
    let’s see if DISQUS can handle a big picture.
    1999-2005
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7079d72a606697aee7a209d06416562f72d9e463301152aed300413f484269e9.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We might be able to pick CSCO off — I think we can.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    share the strategy please.
    pouncing on a boar from above may work, but those tusks, are SHARP!.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    while you are typing….

    volume seems to be key.
    https://tradingsim.com/blog/fade-blow-off-tops/

    what was the other thing?…oh yeah, 3rd wave push?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /YM Sunday evening.
    ding ding.

    draw a line, and the Market will hit it, eventually.
    😉
    RSI is fairly strong at 77.9 level.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6df835c93ca97279865951d48fb038c1046f290d1089e23b0cba4c7ee6a924c.png
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Weekly chart negative divergences RSI MACD overbought. Easily seen on the weekly chart is a bearish 3 drives to the top pattern and daily chart negative divergence PMO BUT the daily chart since mid March is an IHS or cup with a handle pattern. Either way we can nail this If the IHS pattern plays out the target is approx. 50 There is a fib extension approx. 49.17. If the bearish 3 drives to the top pattern plays out additional fib extensions are 47.24 — 48.04 BUT it could be running out of juice now and we could have a false breakout occurring now with the weak volume. Friday a small bounce approx. off the daily 5 ema A bearish close Monday below the 5 ema will also break below resistance and a minor uptrend line Very crucial presently GG If it goes up we watch the fib extensions 47.24 — 48.04 — 49.17 ( approx. IHS and cup with a handle pattern target 50) The trend lines drawn on the daily chart are accurate and legitimate with a centerline trend line Too bad that we did not go lond the bounces off the daily 89 ema https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d3abd461f6663601d70927f4529aee6ff2e0e542a3babbbce488f26107fd783.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Weekly chart Triple Negative RSI divergence Also note the bounces off the weekly 21 ema matching closely the daily 89 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95b6b9d790902ae6bccf7ae338baea0aba300c7df3e693ab97cb4090793ed865.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    excellent analysis. However, I trust IHS as much as Mole loves wave counting. I’m just going to wait for you, and that article in the press about how Cisco is ‘killing it’ and everybody should pile in on this awesome Winner. (/sarc)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG we will nail it Bro ! I am sure you and your family have had a Great Mother’s Day We have !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes GG I have one glass of red wine daily Also the weekly PMO with a negative divergence and declining CMF (about to go negative) . As stated above the daily PMO has negative divergences JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62fb8ff6b1211cd625d5689045b967bd3802611d9b0310c94ea3cd900a0810ad.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG RW discussed the road and traffic jams in So Cal. I have been reading about how the L.A. — Long Beach Port and Longshoremen are handling their maritime log jam. The fly in the ointment in So Cal is the Rails — The Rails can’t handle it presently in the L.A. area as the Longshoremen are able too. NOW I have been reading that Portland is the most efficient port on the West Coast and the entire nation. The Port of Portland is expanding their facilities and the Army Corps of Engineers has completed the dredging of the Columbia River to handle the Mega Ships. Longshoreman in Portland offload and it goes directly to the Rails (BNN and UNP) immediately. Portland is able to beat LA – Long Beach by 2 days to Chicago and other mid west cities GG That is incredible and Portland is going to take away a lot of cargo destined to L.A. — Long Beach. Portland Terminal 4 is where the imported cars are off loaded for the West Coast and Baltimore for the East Coast. All grain from the Mid West is shipped out of Portland
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    My husband used to track Longshoremen hours worked on the West Coast. He would contact Portland ILWU Local 8 and they would lay it out for him The Longshoremen do not lie like Wall St. When their work hours begin to reduce and a pattern can be seen Always a harbinger of things to come. The Longshoremen will share all info and no B.S.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah Wal Mart is also a leading indicator as is The Dollar Tree and Dollar Store. Let’s watch their stock prices GG Good one Bro !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Another one my husband followed was the American Association of Railroads. Their waste shipments tell a huge story as the Rails haul industrial and commercial waste products. He nailed the economy thru WASTE ! Too Much GG as it a great leading indicator
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    and that’s how he really got his pile of Money.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG He knew 6 months in advance with Longshoreman hours worked and rail shipments of waste products. Great Leading indicators of the stock market. Everyone follows GDP and unemployment figures. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Also he followed new car registrations and job openings in newspapers JULIE Chart courtesy of PRECHTER2 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d3f6302077c223723c75eaa78d178763a078d70efba293d023b5d8248cc8fd9.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so, tell me you’ll be hanging around here, for a while.
    😉
    I’m tracking the Unemployment, and a recession is looking a year out, best I can tell.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG we will know September which is the peak shipping month I.e. Longshore and Trucking. September is when Christmas shipments arrive in the U.S. Also we can track fuel consumption by the trucking and rail industries. Also a great indicator as these figures are released by their respective Associations.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    CostCo toys in October,
    Xmas in September, that messes with me so much.
    It’s still 105 at that time.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG TSLA Must get above 311 the confluence of the weekly 21 and 55 ema.s The confirmation will be the RSI breaking above it’s downtrend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09309f756d3859bc1273a272f2b452ef740d47845c9517fa2b9f0995247e7516.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that chart is dead money. almost like Gold.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL ! GG TSLA could be a short at 311 No Foolin …
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG September is beautiful in MT. Foilage beginning to change colors. Animals beginning their migration from summer ranges to winter ranges. The best time of all to visit Yellowstone Natl Park
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    some day, when I have a pile.
    Fall school break is in October.
    and too snowy by then.
    but the Mrs, has expressed interest.
    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03393/The_Wall_3393315b.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Snow starts flying in the MT high country mid September on Lower elevations always by or approx. Halloween. Bozeman usually has snow for Halloween
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that chart is one of a slooow downtrend.
    It could be at 330, in a few days. On something simple as a tweet.
    Do. not. trust.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I would not be so sure of 330 Daily chart 311 matching weekly 21 and 55 ema’s Bearish close daily chart below the 21 ema will also break below the downtrend line Daily chart overbought and crucial daily 55 ema test and MACD centerline test https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72baaecca36320f9fc923313fc2a251dfcf878a22ac4d3ffe590bfd3a12fbfa5.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m glad you have it figured out.
    ‘Like the product, hate the company’.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/tesla-is-blowing-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The weekly and daily charts show an important inflection point TSLA could go either way I definitely would not rule out a failure here very possible
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    say ‘Hi’ to Grizz. I’m out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It’s great GG We love the winter Ice fishing ; skiing ; ice skating ; sledding ; snowmobiling ; winter hikes. The summers are great too. Montanans esp the girls are outdoors people and we love it and look forward to the winter. Yes it gets 30 below and colder but you can dress for it and all systems go outside love it GG ! My best friend Cyd whom I grew up with moved here too and loves it. Bozeman is where Montana State University is located and the students too live for winter activities. The U.S. Olympic Team trains in Bozeman and SW Montana
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks GG Me too After10 pm Have A Great night
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? I hope everyone had a better weekend than yours truly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I’m going to look at that tomorrow. Thanks for the heads up. Post a chart if you can.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III