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Stop Out Tuesday
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Stop Out Tuesday

by The MoleSeptember 4, 2018

King Dollar is back in the game after painting a weekly hammer candle right on top of its 100-week SMA. I call that a solid retest but more shake out attempts may in the cards until things pick up steam again. Of course this Dollar reversal has affected almost every of my open campaigns, eventually resulting in stop outs of my entire book. Let’s review…


I’m showing you the long term chart first as it’s the most compelling. Thus far at least this first stab higher after the break out off the 100-week SMA followed by a reversal lower is pretty textbook. What we want to see afterward of course is much more crucial, namely a solid retest which establishes the basecamp for the next advance higher.

Should that fail and the Dollar falls back through about 93.575 (the weekly NLSL), then the dynamics shift considerably and we would look at a much deeper reversal lower. Until that happens of course I’m thinking bullish.

Which is why I’m prepared to take out a long position on a dip to about 94.85 with a stop < 94.315, which is where I expect the lower 100-hour BB to cross over and push higher in a day or so.

Dollar Victims Roll Call

The stop runners did a pretty good job of sniffing out my trailing stop on the E-Mini after which it was taken to the woodshed. I’m walking away with 1.9R again with no complaints whatsoever. This may continue higher here actually, and I admit it’ll be a tough watch the bus speed off without me. But that’s part of the game, folks.

By the way realized volatility (RV) on the E-Mini has been dropping and is expected to bottom out and then punch higher again. Apologies for the mislabel on the chart, so again – RV has been dropping and after bottoming out is expected to punch higher later this week.

This means that we may get an opportunity for a re-entry, if you’re into that sort of thing 😉

Silver is a goner as expected – out at ISL. Precious metals continue to live in a world of hurt, especially with the USD/JPY attempting to advance again. Although not very strongly (see below) so this is a strong sign of weakness and the bears have it.

EUR/USD reversed short of its still falling 100-day SMA and this was actually quite an important hurdle as bullish territory looms ahead. Let’s see if it can paint a new floor above 1.155 and breach that SMA, which would be massively bullish. I wouldn’t like that of course which is why I would be sure to hedge myself accordingly. Definitely a chart I will keep revisiting in the near future.

I’m also out of the USD/JPY campaign. Way too much whipsaw going on here and this is one of the major drivers of DX strength, so the bulls will have to do much better. Anyway, I got away with another 1.3R which is better than a kick in the shin.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope everyone enjoyed their Labor Day weekend 🙂

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah, 3 days of baby … a Labor Day to remember.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Do you know the difference between a boy and a girl? With a boy, you have to be worried about one boy, with a girl, you have to be worried about ALL the boys 😉

    Congratulations! Spending time with some of my grandkids this week. They are a lot of fun.

  • HD

    congrats!

  • HD

    anybody buying the fucking dip?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not at this point.

  • HD

    Looks like SPX did indeed get EOM volatility 8:8 months this year now, Sorry I missed it.

    The EW: 2-4 TL broke on the same day the bulls thought they were running the show and it immediately overlaps 2891 and trades the 50% HWB. We are in the 4-5 stages of the final wave of this bull. You heard it correct. Not a top call just the wave wanky. 4-5’s on deck W 1 was projected last week. Review if needed.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab699a4af4d39f45c174fdc27dddf73bc0f457fef0830c7b54fbc320182caf0f.png

  • HD

    HWB gets it’s props 90% of the time. Free trade now

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice you are there 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    Stop out Tuesday on NG trade to boot…The Hamptons are now empty, littered with billion dollar left overs….

  • HD

    2900 sellers?

  • randomuser6789

    Mole, I would love to see a Fall Momo update sometime, if you would be so kind.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Fantastic,
    I discovered the joys of rare cooked, steaks.
    medium well, what was I thinking!?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    NEOG was obviously a buy 🙂

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, I wish I had more capital to deploy for longer term position trades. Doing quite well with SQ, as I got some at the IPO price of 9.00, and added at 36.11 when more funds became available.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice trading Mole. Congrats on your 1.9R. Thanks for the post. I am happy to see metals continue lower. My main plan is a solid long in them at some bargain point.

  • HD

    Too easy?

  • ridingwaves

    Tariff scout signal? AAOI getting hammered on no news, been playing this symbol, equal win vs loss, data center-AI cloud fiber optic ctr, China ties. 19 million shares, smaller float..
    trying this bounce off 200sma for trade with stop at 35.50 entry at 36.35

  • HD

    2884 will be the -17 algo. FWIW

  • HD

    This iv should not overlap 2863.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I’ll post one in the coming days.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hope you’re feeling better!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..just remember. Penny stocks *can* go to zero
    😉
    [NUGT]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04666129892

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Ya but APMEX is accepting bitcoin now so you can screw them back! 21% premiums… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50871809a77815af10324d579e7e1381acb2930f8832712dd8a09298f1f6ca40.png

  • HD

    They are giving money away today! Just throwing it at us.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Stopped out with basically break even BAC still short RB Congrats on being a Greatbadger !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Check out the Gulf of Mexico over at Windy.com:

    https://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/0b3c0cf9-486e-4732-9cf7-1c28874f0740/00021725.png

    Starting to look pretty ugly there!

  • HD

    10 handle rally. See if the BOTs show up 1 more time at 2:00

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks…. nice long term reminder. With a well timed play though a rally from 2 to 6$ would still be pretty sweet. Maybe gold around 1000 or some more obvious inflection point….. see where old NUGT is.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can you update us on your VIX girl’s progress???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    another storm off of Cabo San Lucas.
    +1

  • randomuser6789

    Thanks Momo Mole!

  • HD

    For you VIX traders, up 9% and then….. lots of ways to play today’s price action. Let’s hope it stays for a few days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch. sleepy day.

    The big news is Thursday. statistically Wednesday is the big mover day.
    perhaps the market will preposition for Thursday. who knows?
    trade the tape, trade the plan.

    https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

  • HD

    Sorry I’m noisy today but 34 point hit and 3 day pullback. Time to do work. Last Sept had a 34 point hit too. Might want to review. 4-5’s on deck. 2929 looks like a lay up.

  • ridingwaves

    holding over night, moved stop up to 36.05

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s already in production, ran nicely today 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb