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Have Fun Storming The Castle
56

Have Fun Storming The Castle

by The MoleAugust 2, 2018

Over and over again we keep hitting a snag right when it matters the most, and it’s now starting to put us in risk of a much more bearish scenario. Look guys, I’m not one to turn Überteddy on the first sign of trouble. But after over six months of nothing but whipsaw despite the most hopping economic statistics since before even I was born tells me that we are not in Greenspan/Bernanke’s bull market anymore.

The E-Mini has sold hard overnight and I’m pretty damn close to getting stopped out at ISL. Frankly continuation lower at this point seems almost procedural. Which brings this week’s net gain down from 3R to 2R on this one, so I guess I won’t have to switch over to eating only rice and beans just yet.

My silver campaign is chopping around and doesn’t seem to want to pick a direction. The odds of this one succeeding now drop < 50%. Sucks but as traders we need to be congruent and committed to applying objective analysis, especially when our own $$ is on the line.

The USD/JPY is faring much better and I’ve advanced my stop to break/even.

Good news of the day is that the Dollar seems to have gotten its groove on again and is now in the process of breaching a daily Net-Line Buy Level. If it can pull that off the chances of another stab toward 95.5 raise to > 60%.

Crude is a stop out – fortunately at break/even. This is a shame as this one actually was the most promising looking campaign until Tuesday. But Ms. Market can be a cruel mistress, and at least I got out without losing any coin.

Look, I know shitty tape and unfavorable trading conditions when I see them. So I would usually be tempted to just tell you guys to buzz off and call it a week. However tomorrow marks a very special day here at Evil Speculator and I most definitely will have to post. Note to the GoldGerb – shut up and don’t ruin it for the rest of the gang! 😉

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    18 hours ago
    10 handle rally off LOD. Think 2800 trades.
    HD • 18 hours ago
    A full c=a would be at 2775

    Beauty, first stat is complete. Mind the 10 handle rallies. There’s a really good stat for August, looking left. IMO

  • maxcherry
  • HD

    excellent, I did study w Nasdaq and found some 2000 similarity as well.

  • ridingwaves

    problem is forward PE is much lower than 2000…..not a bubble per se….earnings are the market right now along with rotation into value…

  • HD

    Noted the EOM has been volatile all year, that stat is money in the bank!
    Follow up study: when have rallies started this year?

  • HD

    Almost like we rallied 10 HanDles off the open………. I’m due foe a retracement, so donut and IPA time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners since a bit earlier.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    The Zero page is asking me for payment even though I have a recurring subscription with payments taken out from Paypal. Mole should I manually make a payment? I havent had to do that in a very long time, its always been on auto.

  • ridingwaves

    78 billion in treasuries next week to sell, think the 10 yr might get back to 3.11 mark from May..

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-to-begin-auctioning-new-2-month-bill-in-october-2018-08-01

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    normalization takes forever in the land of hopium…this little nugget caught my eye too

    the widow maker is getting close to be a trade me thinks, seasonality near…

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 35 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 27. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts had forecast a climb of 45 billion cubic feet, while the average over the last five years for the same week was a rise of 43 billion. Total stocks now stand at 2.308 trillion cubic feet, down 688 billion cubic feet from a year ago, and 565 billion below the five-year average, the government said. September natural gas NGU18, +0.18% rose 3 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.789 per million British thermal units, up from $2.765 before the supply data.

  • HD

    SPX is trading previous 4th. 91.47 would overlap and advise sellers to noted fib levels below. August has hits last 3 years. IF not, SPX has very clear TIME patterns this year. A rally could very easily start form this level. 2 for bears and 2 for buyers. I got a little more neutral. Be like water.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1e9305a5d1067992d5d8dcd7892b3310e2c35b5d43cad677d07c553ec27bdf0.png

  • ridingwaves

    WEATies on fire…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Looks like standard correction on ES, Looks like it’s over, new highs next…no position except small RE short based on IYR stopping around where it is and 10 year rates moving higher…. small probe as Julie says….

  • HD

    The spidery 6th sense we traders need triggered me this morn and sheesh what a rally. Good thing it’s national
    IPA day. Really enjoying the Ninkasi from Oregon. Prismatic juicy IPA.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Whatever you do, take that coin!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Glad you’re enjoying yourself.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Covered shorts SPX – USO and BAC for break even on all. Going to lay low
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    62% back on NQ is around 7390 and up against what was a small floor… may act as resistance. If the dumbest of the dumb is going to even try a short probe, it would be there. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8bfd29bff4e8236018266e2b12a0ab6afa8ec6c0e3db1df83ab83f64b9c1f59f.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    NQ is HWB

  • HD

    It’s rallied twice for you this week!

    Some are gonna say it’s a flat. 2825 level should keep them objective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can’t complain – I have been very lucky throughout this entire mess.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy would I have been pissed off had I gotten stopped out in the morning….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5535e0947db0e112b310ea869ad17f96556e24aa0a8cbaccd3524cda87946a55.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FYI – Ignore blue reversal signals when the tape is this far away from VWAP.

  • Ronebadger

    Almost 30 pts from the open, but not much of a signal (0.40). The hourly stuck at zero. What do we make of it?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trader Staying Alive…………. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1qN6gLbUMw

  • Ronebadger

    JSTFR?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d3b0eddd99e6b8f615038dcb18755ddc745a071f44fae1c9f57921a6411ae40.png $NDX Nice recovery and bounce off lower trend line and 55 ema. Oversold JULIE

  • HD

    That IV education Mole gave us last week has been a nice study to have going in the background. SPY met it objective last week and AAPL met its 8% objective today. SPY IV is at 9.53% again w payrolls, ISM and the big dog —trade deficit on deck. Another 34 handle move? This is + or -.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I might be the dumb blonde shorting $NDX 60 min chart below 7335 Let’s see ! LOL ! Break even on all. Been nimble
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am your huckleberry again…. trying some TVIX at 36.6

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I love huckleberry’s we pick them. The one’s above 5,000 ft elevation esp good
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    DJI up 19 ES up 17……….what does that tell ya?

  • Ronebadger
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NICE 🙂

  • Ronebadger

    I’m not impressed by Adv/Decl ratio today on NYSE or Nasdaq. Volume on SPY is low as well. I’m thinking this is just a short term bounce. JSTFR We’ll see…

  • HD

    Agree, this market isn’t going anywhere w/o the DJI.

  • randomuser6789

    Hey BK, I shorted TSLA for you. You owe me big money to cover.
    Just kidding.
    I am long TSLA and today has been really good. This is more an investment than a trade. I have been in TSLA through nasty volatility for several months.

  • HD

    I’m not familiar that. Will research.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Agreed RB Looks like short covering to me. We will know tomorrow if there is follow thru
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah…the VIX chart is ugly too…if there’s no drop tomorrow, with a corresponding bounce in VIX, then it’s probably the start of another rally…we’ll see…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB GVIP is a corrective 3 waver down to it’s 144 ema and now the bounce. Good chance of rally resumption.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…exactly the same here 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    My wife owns it too. Glad it is working for you. Guys on ZH must be really depressed as they spilled a LOT of negative black ink on them.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Big break out of it when it happens

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Breaking local news The trapped Smoke jumper in Mt Fire has been extricated. Flown to hospital Missoula MT in excellent condition. 15 year veteran 38 yrs old and officials stating he is one of the best.Yesterday he made his way to an aspen grove and small stream and built a fire perimeter. Signalled his position They knew where he was and were able to get him out this a.m by a rescue helicopter Cheers !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Was a professional FF/EMT for 28 years. Structure fires are gravy when you look at the volatility of a wildfire. Those guys got big balls……………

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX is off 7.2% but TVIX is only off 2.5%. See how this resolves…

  • Darkthirty

    PPT has everything out of kilter, pumped SNP NAS, DOW can’t get outta red

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s usually the perfect buy signal.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So you’re going to buy yourself a Tesla with all the winnings? 😉

  • randomuser6789

    TSLA is a very polarizing stock.
    I am not here to argue taxpayer funded pollution credits or anything else. I am just betting on the idea that TSLA will succeed and that the electric car is a game changer. And I am also betting that the legacy automakers were caught flat footed and will take time to catch up.
    People made fun of AMZN for years because they did not turn a profit. I think we can call their strategy successful at this point.