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Surprise!
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Surprise!

by ScottMarch 15, 2018

It is axiomatic that surprise actions cause the biggest moves.

So it’s no surprise at all that when everybody expects support to hold, and it doesn’t… hilarity ensues.

That really looks like a completed retest of the lows that should kick off at least a test of the old highs.

Aww sheet… that’s gonna leave a mark

So now we really are retesting the lows. Except THIS time, notice the volume is rising to the downside. Odds now favour breaking support again.

But that’s not the whole story, BTC is a heavily manipulated market, and a concerted effort by the Tether/Whales crew could jump in and save it.

By the technical analysis this SHOULD make new lows and fall and keep falling…

But I smell fuckery. I think there is a significant chance that this drop is engineered bullshit games. No way to tell at this stage.

Scott Phillips


About The Author
Scott

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I just rebooted TOS to make sure the Zero doesn’t get logged out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    Here!

    BTW, that nice quiet spot you found for a vacation is exactly the type of spot I look for. It looks like it’s “far away from the maddening crowd” and perfect.

  • Tomcat

    Hey BL, looking for a S in Oil. Need to see a bit more price action before I decide.

  • ridingwaves

    push down to 2740 is needed…

  • Tomcat

    It got there overnight

  • Yoda

    Me thinks GC takes off from now

  • BobbyLow

    I was just typing out a post to you so I’ll copy and paste. LOL

    I drew first blood on my first /QM trade on the long side under my current system for +.75 R Gain this morning! All things considered, buyers kept prices up long enough and I’ll thank em for that. Price is dropping now and I was tempted to flip and go short but I think I’ll just hold onto my gain for now.

    Price action is still squirrelly and a short might be the way to go but I see where price just dropped and came back again. That drop would have taken me out for a loss so I made the right decsion to not over stay my welcome and take my money and run on the long side.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..based on?…..
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1

    throw me a bone old hermit

  • Tomcat

    A long would be good between 1260-80

  • Tomcat

    Congrats BL. I just entered S. Very choppy indeed. I am looking at a test of the 60s which I think based on my lens it will break.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Your lines are crooked πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    excellent, didn’t see that

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    My favorite is: To live is to suffer, to survive is to find some meaning in the suffering.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unlike RW: To live is to SURF.

  • ridingwaves

    in younger years it was to date hot brunettes and surf

  • ridingwaves

    not sure of your overnight hit, can’t see it getting under 2746

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    is it true? salt water gets into everything.
    πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You thought they’re going to make it easy for you, did ya?

  • Tomcat

    I guess depends which contract you are looking at. I was looking at the still trading front contract April 2741 (overnight low).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s not in a supreme vacation destination in Spain which frankly is the only way to get away from the damn crowds. In 2015 Spain got about 53 Million visitors if I recall correctly. In 2017 it was 87 Million with a rising trend. In VLC it’s gotten so bad that we are considering to relocate as we are in the center of it all.

    So anyway, the quiet is fucking therapeutic for us after months of activity all around us. All we hear all day are the waves.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nobody cares – okay, let me stop it then.

  • ridingwaves

    I see it now…had to switch charts for better view.. 1/2 a point from filling a gap…..hmmmmm

  • ridingwaves

    RW agrees with this statement…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bitcoin is down 9.45% at $8,192.310 with a volume of Ιƒ221.7k – $1831.9M on the USD pairs.

    Ether is down 1.45% against Bitcoin at Ιƒ0.07469 per Ether and down 10.4% against the dollar to $610.87 with average volume Ιƒ37.4k on the ETH/BTC pair.

    Bitcoin Cash is down 1.46% to Ιƒ0.1145 with volumes of Ιƒ14.8k and down 9.97% against the dollar at $941.29.

    Ripple is up 0.15% to Ιƒ0.00008581 with volumes of Ιƒ11.5k and down 9.05% against the dollar at $0.7023.

    Zcash is down 3.38% for the day to Ιƒ0.0303 per ZEC and down 10.8% against the dollar to $251.18 with an average volume of Ιƒ2.1k for the 24 hour period.

    Litecoin is down 4.66% against the dollar for the day at $163.42 and up 4.89% to Ιƒ0.01995 on volumes of Ιƒ16.9k.

    Dash is down 5.81% at Ιƒ0.05107 with Ιƒ5.4k volume and down 13.83% against the dollar at $422.53.

    Iota is down 3.28% to Ιƒ0.0001384 on Ιƒ2.1k volume.

    Ether Classic is down 0.98% to Ιƒ0.002115 with volumes of Ιƒ6.0k and down 11.8% against the dollar at $17.34.

    Monero is down 10.54% against the dollar at $219.36 and down 2.17% against Bitcoin at Ιƒ0.0266 on volumes of Ιƒ4.6k.

    Neo is down 4.32% for the day to Ιƒ0.008624 per NEO and down 14.75% against the dollar to $70.68 with an average volume of Ιƒ5.6k for the 24 hour period.

    Waves is down 1.1% to Ιƒ0.0006124 on Ιƒ2.4k volume.

    Stratis is down 6.26% to Ιƒ0.0005554 on Ιƒ445.563 volume.

    Cardano is down 7.56% to Ιƒ0.00002225 on Ιƒ4.4k volume.

    NEM is down 16.53% to Ιƒ0.00004398 on Ιƒ3.3k volume.

    Did you catch the one that stands out? Bankstercoin (Ripple) is up while everything else is down – LOL :-))

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    https://steemit.com/crypto/@rok-sivante/the-great-ripple-conspiracy-debunked-how-the-2-cryptocurrency-is-not-what-some-think-it-is

    “To state upfront: I’ve never had any Ripple in my portfolio. Primarily, for the reason that it is a technology designed for the banking system, and I preferred to show my support for innovative models and projects working on alternatives to the incumbent system.”

  • Yoda

    based on the hairs of my chinny chin chin
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mI3s5fA7Zhk

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Correlation risk in crypto is huge, especially across the popular coins.

  • Yoda

    If VWAP doesn’t hold I’ll short the MOFO tape

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if the NASDAQ leads downward, even better.

  • ridingwaves

    come on you doomsters, have a little optimism…
    Bitcoin’s bull market intact, expect $91,000 by 2020, says Fundstrat

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {smirk}
    a real carnival shrill.

    When 39ema is crossed. I’ll think about it.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYXBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p91415795476

  • BobbyLow

    I guess I’ll just have to miss out. LMAO

    BTW, opened up a short in BIO via LABD.

    I’m just started trading /QM Crude Futures and I wanted something unrelated in my other account that I can’t trade futures in.

  • Tomcat

    I think oil is at an inflection point here, it can go either way, this $1 range we have been in looks to be resolved soon…I am currently short but ready to change position as price confirms…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    This is the way it’s always been with oil. It’ll be choppy as hell for awhile and then have nice neat extended runs and then back to choppy. I hope you’re right on this tight range getting resolved soon. I’ve seen choppiness go from as little as a couple of days to as long as 6 weeks or so. If it stays choppy for awhile longer during this round then I’ll just go into scalp mode.

    BTW, I try to jump on a move that’s already in place. The reason why EIA days didn’t fair well on my back test is that I wait by rule until my 30 Minute Candle has completed. So any “normal’ move that began at the beginning of the 10:30 AM Weds Candle has shot a pretty good load by 11:00 AM after which it’s a case of chasing which usually doesn’t work out very good and something I don’t like to do.

  • Tomcat

    I mean this chart says it all:
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=d1

  • Yoda

    Trade blockade and tariffs is what brought WW II.
    The World is on the same war path again.

  • Yoda

    I just got my cue

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Quadruple Witching is on tap tomorrow

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Son of a Witch

    now you tell me.

  • ridingwaves

    I think Mueller, Congress and Trump are playing the range….
    Mueller subpoenas Trump Organization, demands Russia documents: report
    2740 finally

  • Mark Shinnick

    It comes at a good time; miners, $, and equities all setup for good motion.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t even describe how sick I am of this whole kabuki theater coming out of Washington.

  • Julie
  • BobbyLow

    Sounds like you’re having some withdrawal symptoms Julie. This is normal for us stock junkies. πŸ™‚

    Looks beautiful though!

  • ridingwaves

    its funny kind of, 13 Russian spammers from social troll farm with limited english to pc comprehension somehow influenced in election…anyone could buy them hourly…

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like “The Boyz” have crude pegged at around $61.00 +- a tight ass range for the first half of March.

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t want to get into this RW.

  • Julie

    Hi BL Having fun it is a nice break. Unbelievable the number of people running around. Not used to the noise ….. constant noise. Getting a nice tan and the ocean is beautiful. We are going on a bicycle ride tomorrow and should be away from the people and noise. BL Have not even looked at a chart. Talk about expensive everything costs more here than the mainland (that is what the people living here call it) I do need the break and we are having fun. Hope your trades are doing well
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Oh and I almost forgot, we can’t trust the NSA, the FBI, or the Justice Department. We can only trust our onimipotent King.

  • ridingwaves

    your hip hurting or something…
    the 13 indictments are known spam farm owners, they were even looked into in 2015 and reported in NY post, ..which concluded non relevancy as they were really bad at their job to begin with, using social sites to farm for more people to scam…anyone could have bought their services including soros, clinton, castro, Kim etc….

    its all one big distraction…

  • ridingwaves

    where are you?

  • Julie

    RW Honolulu .. Any ideas ? We went here basically on a moments notice. If you have any ideas it would be great.RW
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I see that my last post slamming Trump is being held up pending approval. I’ll have no problem deleting this post myself. A few weeks ago there was an order to refrain from political posts of any kind because of how it brings up hard feelings and leads to eventual arguments. I will delete my recent political posts. I’ll also ask that other political posts be deleted. I assume that the request to refrain from political discourse of a few weeks ago goes both ways.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t think it was an Admin. it’s a Key word, that triggers the pending approval.

  • Mary

    It was Mole himself that made the request. I think he lost a paying subscriber over it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve done the hike to diamond head. & the AZ memorial. 12 hrs is all I had that day. Mahalo!

  • ridingwaves

    jump in a car, head to Sandy beach, Makapu point and beach then end up at Lanakai beach, eat at L&L, one of most beautiful beaches in all hawaii, rent a kayak and paddle to island if calm only
    http://www.kailuachamber.com/Content/Pictures/Picture.ashx?PicId=221775&Size=M

  • ridingwaves

    North shore is cool cruise thru the pineapple farms than a crowded surf highway with frequent stops until turtle bay resort

  • SheilaBear

    What are you into? Hiking? Foodie? Touristy stuff?
    I grew up there and go back every year to see relatives.

  • BobbyLow

    It doesn’t matter now. One was deleted for me and I deleted the other one. But from now on I hope that’ll be the end of it. Political information from MSNBC, Breitbart or Fox and otherwise political opinions are not going to change anyone’s minds and really only serve to piss people off. Most people have extremely hardened positions (including myself) and it only takes one statement to create an argument. Above all it doesn’t contribute one damn thing to our trading.

    BTW, Ive communicated with others from here by email who are on the same side of the fence as me and believe me, I’m not the only one here who feels the same way I do. It’s just that they practice a lot better self control than I do. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Yes he did Mary and I remember that you made a great followup comment asking people not to make the first political comment because it almost always calls for a response and then the response calls for a response etc, and before long it turns into heated argument and nothing positive can come from it.

  • Mary

    It would be very boring if everyone thought alike.

  • ridingwaves

    one thing I did notice is you take a statement that started off with Trump, congress and Mueller as playing us serfs in a range, tying back to main thesis that both parties rot to high heaven, yet you sit there and bash what was the truth comment, look it up, the frikken indictment is about russian spammers, the Ny Post did a story, been around for years. a waste of time and forming more division….for anyone to formulate in their brain that these spammers could influence in election by posting in gay, church, facebook, and singles portals to grab your info to spam is I hate to say it not wanting to face the facts….they didn’ t influence anything except there pocketbooks and a couple goofballs that just learned about the internet..

    you are cool trading but politics is not your forte…you seem to go off on mention of politics.. the two headed same snake meme has definitely not paid you a visit….

    I will not post anything political but BL you push one way and that is dangerous thinking

  • Darkthirty

    Like a GSW in the ghetto…….. DO NOT engage in the drama! Poly = many ticks = parasites

  • BobbyLow

    “I will not post anything political but BL you push one way and that is dangerous thinking”

    This isn’t the first time we’ve wasted time over this shit and I believe that you also have hardened postions that I feel are over the top. We both have hardened positions and let’s face it RW, there is absolutely nothing that I could say that will ever change your mind and there’s absolutely nothing that you could say that will ever change my mind so let’s leave it at that.

    If either you or I have “dangerous thinking” we are also joined by most of the the country who are also hardened in their positions. I hope that some day we become more moderate as a country and not be so firmly divided.

  • Tomcat

    Fck the orange turd. There I said it. I am OK with getting banned.

  • BobbyLow

    I hope not! I’ve got to be careful or I’ll get the boot myself. LOL

    Just in case drop me a line at rwlowman77 gmail to maintain contact.

  • Tomcat

    Yes, amazing the small range for most of the day considering the swings in the market. I think it will resolve very soon.

  • Julie

    We like hiking and a beach that would not be too crowded Thank You
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Yep

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Insightful comment πŸ™‚ There has never ever been a single instance of tariffs working well.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Everyone In crypto feels the same way. Ripple is constantly fighting a tide of anti-ripple sentiment.

    So when it DOES go up, despite the hate, it has a better edge.

    Ripple is an excellent long side trading vehicle.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Almost insurmountable

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, get off Oahu and over to the big island. Volcanos National Park is amazing, and much more serene. Black sand beaches, green sand beaches, sea turtles, etc. There’s a nice visitor center at 9,000 feet on Mauna Kea for the astronomical observatories.

    I haven’t been there personally, but I’m told that Molokai is downright rustic.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    That which does not kill us makes us stronger.

  • BKXtoZERO

    How about the Eagles/Patriots Superbowl? Is that fair game? You know I was from Philly ;-0

  • BKXtoZERO

    Which word? Is it one of George Carlin’s list of 7 dirty words you can’t say on TV? and then the last few add ons were Fart, Turd and Twat.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    AND it’s a complete waste of time, as most political online debate.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s what we are seeing in Spain as well – way too many people. Every year there is more and more tourism. Plus as many other countries in Europe aren’t an option right or are less attractive now (e.g. Egypt, Turkey, Greece, France, etc.) we are getting the bulk of it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW it wasn’t me, must have been one of the moderators.

  • Ronebadger

    Oaho – Pearl Harbor to pay your respects. North Shore for the big waves. Honolulu is way crowded city…but, stop at Waikiki just to say you did
    Maui – Road to Hanna. Top of Haleakala crater 10K feet.
    Big Island – volcanoes in east, Kona stop in west
    Kauai – take plane or helicopter tour of island…and/or tour the island by car or tourbus (my favorite Hawaiian island)

  • Ian Naugler

    From a technical standpoint, that triple inside 4hr was as easy as trading gets

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..and Silver is going back to $30.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09840756665

    Mark my words Sam Gamgee. Mark my words.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I’ve already congratulated all the Philly fans here. We were out played and Philly won it. The Patriots have no excuses. Philly actually helped a lot of people by winning because if the Patriots had won, it would have won 3 out of the last 4 Super Bowls and Patriot haters would have gone into a deep state of depression. πŸ™‚

  • Yoda

    no, to the moon my friend, to the moon

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mary
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GLD,
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/083de9d851f02c6fe0cae309aeed5c7ff4279d945bc0c70091dc5b266a3e192a.png
    It’s been a crowded trade the last several months.

    Ok, I have a weird work day schedule. Make it an awesome Friday.
    -GG

  • Yoda

    It “was”, but not anymore

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    almost forgot,
    USO, clinging to the MA. NO EDGE.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87897249028

  • Tomcat

    Just bought the masterclass from Scott, and let me just say. a great fkcin deal. Here is the link:
    https://www.scottphillipstrading.com/order-form-system-building

  • Yoda

    I hope it works for you

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m always keenly interested in some direct connection to markets; the two crossed-over stunningly when I saw Trump trading at 8 or 9 %. The discounting of Correct Estimation was so amazingly high over that of the emotional component, which if one divorced himself from colored judgement made for a really great trade.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s great!

    Speaking first hand, Scott helped me overcome some of the weakest parts of my game. He really knows his stuff especially the psychological aspect of this business.

  • Tomcat

    Bobby looks like we have some momentum in Oil.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah what the hell happened around 11:00? I was wrapped up doing something else and just looked at my screen and saw price explode to the upside. Friday’s showed up as pretty bumpy and volaitile on my backtest so I wasn’t going to trade futures today anyway.

    This is crazy. Did you get in long?

  • Yoda

    PM miners are bid

  • BKXtoZERO

    Philly fans were so conditioned to losing that they didn’t know how to win. They were a tad rude to Vikings fans and went a tad overboard after the Super Bowl but now maybe they will settle down.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – we are running a small crew here today it seems! How’s everyone?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, I wouldn’t call it an ‘explosion’ – the range remains rather contained. I think the current game is to simply bang the tape in various directions and shake out as many suckers as possible. Glad I’m on vacation!

  • Mary
  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    It was stuck so tight around $61 for so long I thought price was comatose and when it moved a dollar in such a short period of time it was like someone hit it with a defibrillator. πŸ™‚

  • Yoda

    As one would do during quad witching…

  • Tomcat

    No, got caught short with my pants down ;). Was away when it happened

  • Brishort

    Present and watching reluctantly from afar the chopchop….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh yeah – that time of the quarter again.

  • Richard Adler

    Cheers!

  • Yoda

    Slacker πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The railing hides the event horizon, -1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    7 days ago it was Full Ben-Hur to the up side.
    I’m a little disappointed 176 wasn’t hit. It’s the Engineer in me.

    Intraday, you guys must be loving it.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e5bc7605ad229bc0295c0b864a83b1f34e0bf6a9d25d49ec63f0abd758574eb.png
    -GG

  • Richard Adler

    Is it specific to a trading platform?

  • Brishort

    Actually the chopchop is very difficult to trade, even intraday, as the support and resistance of the zone are expanded a little more every time.

    Can’t shake the view that the ES hourly looks like a nose with a booger, waiting to fall, but need to know if the finger will push it higher first before removing!!!

  • Brishort

    +1 on this -1!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • stovis

    Missed a good /GC short earlier. Got in /CL long and trying to ride it. Had a nice gain on a trade in /CL earlier in the week and it missed my target by one tick and then came back all the way to break even – Tuesday, when it went to 61.97 and my target was 61.98. I am somewhat of a master at that.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Thanks man, make sure you reach out for help along the way.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Nope. I use mainly excel for backtesting which is my preference.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    That is a hellova beach

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..approaching Death Cross?

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    For the millionth time. Death cross has nothing going for it but a cool name.

    Statistical analysis of 50 futures contracts for last 40 years shows that it “works” 28% of the time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thank you sir!
    another one on the pile

    Death Cross
    Hindenburg Omens
    Lunar Cycles
    CNBC
    Metals
    Easter Bunny
    Santa
    Tooth fairy
    Government
    Work mates
    Ex-wives

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BTC Sunday.

    Price has moved radically to the upside in the past hour.
    Looking at the bigger daily picture, support is nearby.
    *If* the toilet is flushed, 2963 would be the target.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e9e52b1514041f517a3d2476002e5577eca506a5c290a61005f6fe73eeec9f2.png

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Hindenburg!!!! And I still believe in Santa FWIW

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    NEW POST