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Sweet Mercy!
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Sweet Mercy!

by The MoleAugust 15, 2013

I am not going to walk us through the entire list of setups I presented here yesterday evening but rest assured that the following sample size is but a small reflection of how green my account is flashing today. If you are a sub then I sincerely hope you picked up at least some of these goodies – today’s action should have paid for a few more months of that secret decoder ring:

Let’s start equities – obviously the big mover of the day. You can pin it on the crappy Philly Fed releases but to us rats it was a setup like any other. The E-Mini triggered within the hour after posting and it’s been dropping ever since. Of course you are now wondering if you should take profits or hold down here. The best I can offer at this point is the weekly NLSL at ES 1665.75 – should we close below it tomorrow at the EOS then we do have a bonafide weekly sell signal in our pocket. And that means more technical damage and thus a penny in the bearish jar. One sell-off does not make a new trend but given this possibility I will keep a few lottery tickets in the running and if we close below the weekly NLSL tomorrow hold them into the next week. No balls – no babies.

Possible daily support however on the YM as it’s touching its 100-day SMA. The implications of continuation lower would be significant so I’m watching this with great interest. A drop below it may induce me to grab a few more short positions.

The dollar also dropped through its inside period trigger and thus far we’re are nicely in the money. Be aware that we may complete an inside week candle (and a shooting star) here tomorrow. Not looking good for ole’ bucky.

Natgas – we had two opportunities to get long and it’s paying off today. You may recall my excitement as that 100-week SMA touch on the right may lead us quite a bit higher. So I’m not touching this one with a ten foot pole right now – you got to let those winners run.

Platinum – hammer entry and boy did it take off! However it is now approaching weekly resistance and I’m going to cash out here. Thank you very much!

EUR/USD – what can I say. You all know I was excited about this IP and it’s paid us in spates at this point. I must say that today has made up for much of the pain in the past few weeks. Let’s hope the remainder of August will not disappoint.

New setups below for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • SS_JJ

    Day ain’t over yet but me thinks hobby bears are shooting their load way too quickly:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04311133215&a=250541673

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    It’s a tricky position. nice trick eh? use all tools

    http://s9.postimg.org/7xr4ba9ql/tricky.png

  • tradingmom

    try again

  • tradingmom

    vacation brain. Apologies.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I cleaned it up. Mom’s make little messes. =P

  • tradingmom

    Thanks. Obviously, I forgot to save over an old chart. My chart posting skills got rusty.

  • Ronebadger

    look what happened 3 months ago

  • Skynard

    Bull flag 5 min. Long /ES, tight stop

  • SS_JJ

    I don’t like gaps on VIX: Most of the time they get filled

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Pervergence

    Bucky is losing his shitz

  • Skynard

    Taking another shot says ZL.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s everyone – anyone banking coin today?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very interesting actually – this suggests more volatility ahead.

  • http://www.tomekfranzl.com tomek

    took GC, SI and NQ setups. Fricken euphoric right now. Thank you Captain Mole!

  • bdoone

    Watch RUT…new lows, pos. but div.

  • tradingmom

    What makes you say that?

  • Skynard

    Bears stomping this tape, see what these last minute bulls have.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Emotions = bad. They are just trades mate – don’t get married to them. Treat them per your exit/stop rules and you will be okay.

  • ridingwaves

    “The last time SPY puts topped the Soros Fund was in the 30th June 2011 filing and we saw the S&P 500 lose 15%+ over the 6-7 weeks following, over July/August (during which time Soros reduced the position substantially). The position in 2011 was less than half the size of the current one which makes me think he might be anticipating a larger decline on this occasion.”

    Soros bought a put on1,248,643 SPY units in the quarter

  • SS_JJ

    How do you like your steak done? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Expanding triangle?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, I was thinking that an hour ago. Maybe I should smash my toe or something.

  • SS_JJ

    LMAO!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just go out and kick a tree.

  • AmazingLarry

    Learned this the hard way. Well, i made coin – certainly have no control over that. It’s the oddest feeling.

  • http://www.tomekfranzl.com tomek

    word. learned that lesson the hard way. was only showing my gratitude for all the change that found its way into my account today. 🙂

  • SS_JJ

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tT0-_9T6WOc
    Feel more neutral already 😉

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Got the NG, was short SI but didn’t flip it
    Still not trying equities
    Didn’t take SB short, it’s bullish and each drop gets bought

  • SS_JJ

    Step 1 now confirmed.

  • SS_JJ

    This was one helluva gay downtrend day

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m interested in what the BPGDM comes out to, (in a few hours)
    but no victory, just trade the setups. penny in the jar as said.

  • SS_JJ

    I’ll close most of my PM positions tomorrow. This rocket move was awesome but I want to lock profits in before the start of the w-e.

  • bdoone

    And a 100% prob of a down trend day should end on lows.

  • doublestepover

    I think the real Ivan probably deserves a big “Thank You” on days like this for the Set-ups and Campaign Mgmt coded in Crazy.Ivan by Mole.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Don’t be fearful to lose profits
    Be hopeful they continue
    Why stop the good thing, when music just started to play
    (unless you had a different plan all-along)
    JM2C

  • fairmorn

    Mole for us mere mortals the EUR/ USD inside day was nothing but but a whipsaw whipping. Long stopped out . Short stopped out. Long again? I see no profit here (yet). I didn’t take any of these trades. I hate inside days. No I didn’t take the ES inside day either. I am still short from the RTV sell earlier in the week. Some times conviction does help. 🙂

  • SirDagonet

    Mole’s gonna dis both of us for your comment (suggesting a market prediction) & my response, but what the heck…

    An interesting comment on that MW article:

    “So Soros lost big in Q1 and Q2 for his bearish bet on S&P. He is double down now. If he lost this time his fund is going to be negative for 2013.”

    Look at this chart… https://whalewisdom.com/filer/soros-fund-management-llc

    Q2 2011 fund value $7.2B Q4 2011 $4.5B Q2 2013 $9.2B
    So, as CS says, trade your system (roll with the punches) and don’t fuck with the entries or exits 🙂

  • SS_JJ

    A bunch of my miners have a strong resistance just above. I am not very conformable holding a position for too long without a retest of the acceleration line (approx. 5 sma), at which point I will see if it is worth reloading long or wait for a deeper retest. I won’t be surprised if the Silver 100 d SMA is retested next week or so.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    My bad
    We have different time frames
    Just disregard what i said

  • SS_JJ

    The long term looks awesome with the breach of the previous month inside candle. I’m just trying to maximize R and enjoy a good night of sleep 😉

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose a little warm and fuzzy feeling is OK. But I too have learned the hard way to try to keep my trading emotions like the old fashioned AMP Gages that were used in vehicles back in the day. That means I want them to just be just flickering in the middle because if they are too Negative = Bad and if they are too Positive = Bad 🙂

  • SS_JJ

    Indeed BL. Even though we are all human (not sure about Skynet ;-)), the coldest ones among us tend to bank systematically the most coins.

  • convictscott

    The last 3 inside days have all worked. The idea of an inside day is you get long on a break of the high with a stop 1 tick below the low. Therefore todays inside day gave profit equivalent to the risk taken in the same day.

    Conviction doesn’t help – it kills your account quicker than anything on the planet

  • convictscott

    He is a great trader – one of the top 5 of all time in my book (I know others disagree because he is an arrogant tool) I read his book “the alchemy of finance” while I was in prison and it totally changed the way I think about markets.

    The problem with following guys like this is that you make your money on the EXITS and with POSITION SIZING not the entries.

  • convictscott

    Exactly so! When I discretionary trade a rule of thumb is that anytime I start feeling clever, feel the urge to brag, or do a little happy dance in my office – I MUST bank some profits. Over time that has proven a reliable indicator of a good reversal point.

  • Ronebadger

    and…many more Step 1s to come…hopefully

  • Skynard

    Indeed it does! Was following this daily /DX chart and it was sporting a massive div. See what happened today? I’m still bullish on the dollar for now until this SL is taken out, actually a good place for a long. Div fail:)

  • convictscott

    VIX is not a traded instrument and just because it plots on a chart you cannot do regular TA on it like a regular chart – there are no buyers and sellers. The gap concept is totally invalid on VIX, on a regular chart it represents a volume hole which acts as a magnet for price, the concept does not carry over.

  • convictscott

    Your div-fail concept is very sound IMO, a much better way than the usual divergence methods which IMO have a negative edge.

  • convictscott

    His system is fundamental based. What he looks for is a market in equilibrium where an external input (actually more than one) has been applied to it altering the demand-supply equation (ie QE). If that increase in demand begets an increase in price which creates a positive feedback loop which starts a bubble, he will be long.

    His system is based on the idea that in a bubble situation the “pop” once started is highly predictable in terms of target. Pull up a chart of past bubbles in oil, sugar, wheat, bitcoin, dot com, anything – they mostly end up where they start. He waits until the external inputs causing the bubble are removed, then scales into shorts.

    It is a sound concept, but it is going to have win/loss ratio under 30% IMO, with each win a 10-20 bagger

  • Skynard

    For some reason those counter-trend trades like me. Have a good edge with them, take AUD for example. This chart has a div and it will likely fail, we made a lower low and if my theory is right the dollar will rally. It bounced hard off the 100 lower BB today. Enjoy trading these high volatility markets where most stay away. Shall see:)

  • Skynard

    So true! The mind is very deceptive place:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Always open to criticism but that is part of trading price patterns. You do get kicked the other way sometimes – the good news is that the second and especially third breach have higher odds. Scott has done a lot of statistics on inside periods and they have solid odds. Don’t fall prey to recency bias – obviously the past few weeks have been difficult.

    Either way, appreciate your candor. Trading is a tough racket and it is often difficult to not let the tape affect rational decision making.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Favorite comment of the day. 1+

  • Skynard

    Took a peek at SOH, muck giddy:)

  • amokta

    Extra post there by Mole, i assume its all covered here anyway!

  • fisheggs

    How true ! Twitter is quite useful for this. I have often seen markets turn when my follow column starts getting warm and fuzzy or apocalyptic, Coincidentally most at market swing points.

  • convictscott

    I think there is confusion about the definition of worked. The last 3 inside days all made 1R wins. An inside day breach does NOT mean you are in a trade you can hold for weeks.

    It is a quick bang with a dirty slut whore, not a marriage 😉

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    as the shampoo commercials preach, it’s all about Volume.
    NUGT does a 1:10 reverse split Aug-20.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75838580051&a=274873158

  • mrmik3

    pull up a chart and actually look at some of those candles.. for me the 4HR.. there was some “fuckery” there.. in particular the big up bar that was the biggest 4Hr candle in the past 2 weeks!!

  • stovis

    Japan don’t care.

  • convictscott

    See the current crazy ivan 360 entry, being sent for free during the beta test

  • convictscott

    Actually the second breach (same candle) of an inside period is a superb edge. What that means is that you get long, get stopped out and then short (or vice versa)

    The third whipsaw is actually a negative edge

  • spicestory

    VIX step one, no interest?

  • Darkthirty

    wide spread on ES bid/ask

  • convictscott

    Don’t trade the es at this time of day, its a rigged game

  • convictscott

    You are right this was indeed double whipsaw (sorry missed it) Statistically it happens one in 9 inside periods.

  • Darkthirty

    Looking to unload some

  • convictscott

    Wait until Europe opens, only 3 more hours

  • Darkthirty

    Thanks

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    tomorrow may be a nonevent?
    but looking at the 12.0 envelope, SPX is at a significant level.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86161887960

    -DG

  • http://www.tomekfranzl.com tomek

    thanks for explaining Scott.

  • Dyellowflash

    Held and added a bit more shorts for YM/WS before that dip just now and have TP-ed off 1/3 at 15082. Today is Friday, not keen to load up too much 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Now you’ve got their attention 🙂

  • convictscott

    Crazy Ivan 360 short entry, recently we have W,L,L,W,L,W,W,W (so far) about what you can expect

  • convictscott

    Green dotted lines are wins from the entry point to the exit point. Red dotted lines the losers

  • convictscott

    And AUDUSD recently – W,W,L,W,L,L,current trade approx breakeven.

  • sburtt

    CS I’m confused from CI.AUDJPY.360 last execution, I don’t recon we ever received an ACTIVE ENTRY SIGNAL for this, please could you double check?

    Subject: CrazyIvan.AUDJPY.360 Alert #46 at 4:03 PM EDT

    SIGNALS: FO-S, GARB-S.

    TRADE: SellShort at 88.745.
    STOP: BuyToCover at 90.075.
    RISK: 133 pips.

  • convictscott

    Yep I just spent a while with Mole discussing this – its complicated and we are trying to figure out a way around it happening again. My advice – skip this one

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • mrmik3

    @convictscott:disqus

    those are the type of moves where i step aside… wait for the retracement and get in.. then out!!.. but i don’t ever try to ride those big moves, just not my style!