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Sweet Mercy
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Sweet Mercy

by The MoleJune 15, 2009

11:00am EDT: FINALLY – we have confirmation:

This seems to confirm that the peak of (Y) was last Thursday. Now we wait for a little bounce. FYI – I’m long the ES since 919.25 – I think we might get a little bounce here.

1:18pm EDT: The Dollar painted a nice inverse H&S today:

Looking pretty good for our 84 medium term target.

1:24pm EDT: Alright, that ES trade didn’t work out – probably should have known over and hour ago when we weren’t pushing up after that entry signal. Anyway, what I’m however seeing now is a very distinct divergence between the ES and the NQ. I think the prop desk monkeys are trying to push the tape higher via the NQ/NDX but it’s not working. Bears have smelled blood and had enough of the games – seller is stepping in every time we touch 919.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • springheel_jack

    Oil falling back through 70. Looks like that inverse H&S on the USD may well play out. Mole's intermediate target is 84 but it may well go higher.

    Like many bears here I have been disappointed too often lately to think this is a big equities reversal though. Does anyone here think we might see 850 soon?

    If the answer is no, is that not a sign of excessive bullishness?

  • alphahorn

    repost:

    time to buy FAZ is NOW!!!!, big house dear friend i think you're on the wrong side.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • katzo7

    We are at one of my levels now 922. Please, please do not consider playing this on long side!

  • alphahorn

    short GS 143.10

  • springheel_jack

    The USD rise today is accelerating very sharply. GBP/USD under $1.63, EUR/USD under 1.38.

    Oddly it isn't moving much against JPY though. I wonder whether the old weak equities / strong JPY correlation is still holding to an extent.

  • Squidman

    No dip buying LOL

  • ropey

    got to be a bit careful katso, the NYSE volume is actually lower than friday at the same point…nas is same as friday…..

  • Osso

    Those headlines Mole posted as a signal…what an excellent prediction..!!!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I'm Going long….:)

  • alphahorn

    H&S on SPX about reached it's target 922ish. i jumped the gun on wave 3 it still had one more leg in it

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • BalaB

    Really Nice Sunday Post, Mole.

    Looks like everybody is having fun. ; )

    I should be back at my terminal mid week.

  • katzo7

    Actually I AM seeing a case building for that. Potential into 940s but I
    will not touch it.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im out for now (I rolled over to Sept ES's by the way). I think there is more downside left to this for the rest of the day but my exit is done, profits taken. great post last night by the way, Mole

  • Squidman

    Good to here BalaB. What you're doing is more important!

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Long ES @ 919.75, Stop @ 914.75

  • thelefteyeguy

    was it 144.10?

  • alphahorn

    other than scalping a mild wave 4 correction, i don't see any reason to go long here. the SPX broke down from its bearish rising wedge with a target of around 880-5

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • thelefteyeguy

    im hoping for at least 900…would def'n like to see some longer term forecast with with some EW

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Hopefully, I would take profits/Exit shorts in GS

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks just what Im looking for

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Very bearish $TICK, put in lowest reading since may 21st, high $tick of the day only 451, would need to see new high tick above 800 for possible trend reversal

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hey COH is green ..lol

  • alphahorn

    updated wave count, 3 is likely in now: look for a simple abc, looking to add to shorts at the top of a and c

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • katzo7

    Jeez, look at this!
    If 922 gets broken by a good measure, it becomes a ceiling to the upside. It is a very strong level, I get 3 different reads targeting it. Next level is 918 IMO, might prove to be tougher to get through though.

    A measure of this upcoming bounce will determine the true character of this “new” down movement. Is it real, sustainable? Obviously I think yes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    IMO i think the boys at GS will pull some fuckery later today…Be on guard.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm hoping for a mild wave 4 correction to add to shorts at a better level. Thx for your target 880-5. That's where i'm thinking this might go as well.

  • Eric_in_SFL

    I don't see a complete down side confirmation yet, Dow still above Fib.
    http://screencast.com/t/7t9I2eotq0R

    Todays SP Volume

    http://screencast.com/t/JVVt1Bocrr

  • innatedc

    I betcha we see a three white soldiers candlestick pattern on the dollar after tommorrow….

  • alphahorn

    also buy SRS!

    about to break out of it decending bullish wedge, cross its 20 #MA and RSI approaching 50 on the daily

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • thunda72

    Short AXP @ 24.94

  • amgrant

    A/D line insanely bearish so I'd be careful with shorts. I'm out of all of them. I'm ok missing a ride down to 900.

  • disrespekt

    ah ha…so the ZLI was erroneous; I thought so given the breadth of the move down

  • alphahorn

    HIG is dying like the pig it is

  • tranchefoot

    Who TF is buying COH???!!!

  • Osso

    da boyz from GS..are short…and control the tape now….imo.

  • Squidman

    Yup, they are going to run stops but those hoping to get out on a pop are cooked.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Life would be better if all insurance cos. will be gone

  • standard_and_poor

    Well looks like I”l finally be joining 99.9% of you in shorting – I even forgot what being short feels like.

  • katzo7

    Please break 922 and I will stop fantasizing about you know who {he says with fingers crossed behind his back}.

  • amgrant

    Call me crazy, but I wouldnt be surprised if this was the low for the week. We went overly bearish very quickly.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    First REAL support /ES @886 (after 914.75)

  • thunda72

    Probably BigHouse! πŸ˜‰

  • katzo7

    Try Viagra.

  • Osso

    save the whales….save the USDollar..!!!!

  • thunda72

    Interesting scenario. Anything's possible!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    low blow πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    about time for you BH! πŸ™‚

  • thelefteyeguy

    lol…

  • mediatik

    nat gas is on fire

  • annamall

    I am long ES here 918.50 stop loss 916.00 oversold on short term

  • amgrant

    Well, volume very high, and breadth is very bearish. I'm not going long though…really waiting for pullback and see how how things unfold from there.

  • mrclam

    almost exact same entry as you, long 918.25/exit 916.

  • annamall

    Great minds Clamman! πŸ™‚

  • katzo7

    He knows I am just kidding him, after all he has a hog (harley d)

  • annamall

    No Volume on sell off.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    LOL thanks …

  • Osso

    having broken 927…next real support: 880.

  • amgrant

    I'm staying out but that could be a very good trade.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder if QQQQ's are tracing out inverse H/S on 5 min chart?

  • rhae

    I am such a rotten scalper, I will just trail/stop my swing shorts…
    I can scalp but I do not care to stay glued to the screen all day…

  • katzo7

    Peeps that know put/call ratios better than me, what will a drop all week do to that?

  • alphahorn

    update on banks, $BKX, it aint getting prettier

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • mediatik

    wow sentiment as changed alot today on all boards, blogs and news networks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    then definitely Viagra…

  • standard_and_poor

    Congratulations to katzo for calling this top.
    The ladies asked that I dedicate this tune to the Great katzo!
    Yes he is King of Evil Speculator:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvM3KNlGQco

  • GDII

    lol i like it, if we can totally ignore the heavy battle field around 915 and the 900 psycho mark.
    i am still kicking the wall for getting up too late and missed the train this morning. i think market is on sidewalk now. i will just hold cash and watch for a sec or 2.

  • Keirsten

    AAPL and CSCO- two sick puppies here. At least RIMM has some signs of life.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we need to break 31 on vix, otherwise – u might just be right

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Long DELL, GS, T, USB tight stops, will close out either EOD or tomorrow morning depending on what I see this afternoon.

  • Squidman

    Here here!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    if it is about /es volume – we r trading m9 and u9 – u have to add volume

  • katzo7

    Thnx S&P, but mole le cool is the KING. I am a pawn and if you remember, I called the top 6,088 times!

  • springheel_jack

    Volume climbing, but down a bit today isn't it?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    patience

  • mediatik

    well ung is up 5.7 %

  • springheel_jack

    It would probably rise as bearish sentiment solidifies. It is a good contrarian indicator for sentiment.

  • thelefteyeguy

    just have to remember that magic number when you call the bottom lol

  • Royal With Cheese

    Market is down today ?? Mole, das ist unmΓΆglich !!!!

  • amgrant

    Have to agree, things went bearish damn quick. That's what scares me.

  • springheel_jack

    This is consolidating very sideways. The next big move is probably down IMO.

  • Autopsias

    Hi Anna, with all due respect have a bit of mercy to this alien from Mars! I can't keep focused on my trading with your new picture! πŸ˜‰

    I think the same is happening with the MM's and that's why they are not buying the dips today!

  • katzo7

    WhAt you have to do TLEG is to wait for my call, then go out of town for two days. That is what I will be doing from now on.

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    What a mean dude, especially since I just dedicated a tune to you. I'll try anything once under the right circumstances.

    Β 

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    Very gracious of you, spoken likeΒ  true royalty. I shall kinight thee Sir Spamsalot.
    Β 

    ________________________________

  • alphahorn

    wave 3 bounced right of this trendline, wave 5 should bust through it, ab of 4 now appear to be in

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • innatedc

    ummm, I wonder who that could be….? Close to a morals violation there young man….

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Check out the 60 day trend on a 30 minute chart. There is a gap at 919.57 which pretty much coincides with the lower line of the uptrend channel. I think we could see the bulls make a comeback at this level. I'm thinking about going long here. Maybe someone should talk me off of the ledge?

    http://tinyurl.com/mfdkpj

  • Osso

    rotation from oil to nat. gas…????

  • innatedc

    Dollar at the highs and goddamn my soybean futures are making my entire year!!! Never traded it before but those Gann guys know their shit over there….so I thought I'd take a chance with 5 contracts…letting the profits run with a trailstop behind it….

  • katzo7

    Careful here short term traders, may get a litt' pop, quality of pop is very important.

  • amgrant

    I think short oil and long nat gas is going to be THE pairs trade of the year.

  • alphahorn

    update on banks, aka big house intervention phase 3, it just keeps getting worse, adding to my FAZ, SRS

    http://screencast.com/t/KcaSDNkhV3

  • amgrant

    Absolutely, with you on that. Watching closely.

  • amgrant

    Two bottom tails on hourly ES chart…

  • GDII

    check UNG.
    historically Natural Gas gets hot during the summer time. Last year it hit peak right before 7/4
    today it goes against strong dollar. i see a breakout sign.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    On SPY we have come within 3 cents of closing the gap we left open at the beginning of the month. Not sure if this qualifies as a gap fill – hardly any volume on this sell off…

    IMO this might be just a gap fill exercise.. We have to wait till the final hour for confirmation.

    If the dip buyers are still out there, then today is better than lot of other dips that they have been offered.

    I am buying some TZA Jun 22.5 puts for 0.85 here – any dip buying would light a fire under IWM.. and TZA would go do the toilet.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • standard_and_poor

    Better yet -You shall be knighted Sir Callstopsalot!

  • Keirsten

    We'll never buy a Coach purse again BigHouse, I promise! LOL

  • HardTimes

    Ha… That's a picture of Nadine Coyle… πŸ˜‰

    http://www.google.com/search?q=Nadine+Coyle

  • standard_and_poor

    Will day trade longs if 923.57 (spx) is broken. Stop at day's low.

  • Autopsias

    Can very well be, but still distracts me! πŸ™‚

  • fuw

    Not unexpected though, since everybody have been holding their breath for a sizable correction to get here.

    I'm also hesitant about this fast pullback, but another scenario is that most people will try bull positions now each day, accustomed to the action of the last couple of months. Calls of an oversold market will be made, and people will be talking about buying the pullback and that the pullback is healthy. Then after 1-2 weeks when the market isn't turning the real panic sets in. This scenario would correspond to the inverse of the march turn.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    added long for a day trade. No more june longs though, screw that.

  • standard_and_poor

    Long again, aghhhh!

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks Alpha …another timely chart πŸ™‚

  • katzo7

    I am sorry S&P, I thought long and hard about that one. Devil got to me.

  • zenith191

    Natgas nymex futures up 5.65%. Natgas has been forming a bottom since March between 3.25 and 4.60. Last 4.07. Right now it is at the top of a narrowing wedge that started forming back in May. It is above all it's MAs and the MAs are stack in bullish order (10 above 20 above 50).

    Furthermore the Natgas to WT crude ratio was 0.05 on June 12th (Top end of the range is 0.20). That is lower than at anytime in the past 15 years!! Crude has had a nice run up but Natgas has gone nowhere. So either crude comes down or natgas goes up or both.

    I am starting to nibble here and will aquire more if we break to the upside of the wedge and then more on a break out of the consolidation range. Could easily see this go to $6-$7.5 resistance area. High back in 06 was like $15.

  • standard_and_poor

    Good man.

  • amgrant

    That's what I'm waiting for – that inflection point, if you will. I want to see how the retracement of this correction behaves.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    In my book the dollar is the tell and UUP is awful close to flirting with a higher high after already putting in a lower low. And look at the volume…

  • katzo7

    It's like selling a house, you only need one buyer. I only needed to get one right.

    Tops and bottoms other than that V bottom are a process not an event. And peeps note, the volume indicator was not there on the V bottom.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Considering the selloff has been pretty large SPX points wise, the money flows are really really small…..

  • buyemsellem2000

    Will it close below the 20 day SMA, or ramp back up. Thats the question. With opex week it just might bounce between the 10 and 20 for the week.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Quick chart of the channels: http://screencast.com/t/xdZWkhCD

  • thunda72

    I like long Dell, Eric. I've been watching that one.

  • anotherone

    SPY printing a double bottom on the hourly bars.

  • katzo7

    Thought police?
    LOL

  • innatedc

    Or do we have a bear flag…..

  • standard_and_poor

    YOU ARE FORGIVEN SIR CALLSTOPSALOT. You shall receive a royal pardon.
    Β 

    ________________________________

  • onorio

    Just to remind that if we cross 935 , we might have placed a ABC down from 956.

  • anotherone

    Could be, but the last hour's candle was a bullish hammer. But I'm definitely not a candlestick expert.

  • zenith191

    I agree.

  • zenith191

    The Natgas to WT crude ratio was 0.05 on June 12th (Top end of the range is 0.20). That is lower than at anytime in the past 15 years!! Crude has had a nice run up but Natgas has gone nowhere. So either crude comes down or natgas goes up or both.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Expecting $TRAN to sell off some here… look for support around 3170, which is the middle yellow fan line on these charts… http://tinyurl.com/mge536

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Heres the last shake down, we'll be moving up soon.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • GoCougs

    innatec,

    Did you subscribe to their hotline service for the $67/month? I assume from your comment you have found it to be worth it?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    I'm seeing the same thing

  • alphahorn

    short KRE @ 19.20, will load the boat with a breach of 19

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • standard_and_poor

    Foiled, 2.37 point loss.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    That is also a gap fill see. See my post below.

  • innatedc

    I haven't yet…got til Wed. for the special but I think I will be subscribing…..

  • katzo7

    Bounce time, watch my levels.
    AND
    IMO, I would not play an EW4 bounce on these smaller time frames. Asking for trouble unless your friendly PPT shows. Did they show on Friday?

  • fuw

    How high are you looking? I dont see more than ~926.5 on the S&P.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    RSI divergence to the upside on the 5 min

  • Eric_in_SFL

    927?, I can't really make a good estimation until we get some momentum up.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    XLF, $SPX, $TRAN should make new lows, then bounce.

  • thelefteyeguy

    …i think that just changed πŸ™‚

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Transports due for a bounce any minute, lines up with SPX chart also

    $DJT: http://screencast.com/t/xdZWkhCD

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    The divergence is still there. Not sure what you're referring to

    screencap: http://screencast.com/t/c5RWbIIt

  • tranchefoot

    GDX now down to breakout level- 38. Any takers?

  • springheel_jack

    Both in all probability

  • Kirklandguy

    Good for you! I shorted 1250->1240, was tied up elsewhere when it spiked to 1290, and missed out on this huge drop. Quite disappointed I missed it, but great trade there!

  • katzo7

    Watch day, it just switched into an ABC which means direction change, not good for long IMO yet.
    Watch MACD on day for cross of zero, if crosses very bad for longs in that it will take some time. Keep an eye on it, let us all know.
    Thnx.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    SPX gap almost filled…

  • alphahorn

    did you see my target for $tran, friday?

  • zenith191

    Right. However I cannot find any shares of OIL or USO to short. Time to go back to trading futures me thinks …

  • tranchefoot

    I have a job! Thanks, boss. πŸ™‚

  • rhae

    SPX daily… the fun has just begun
    http://screencast.com/t/gi5w2oWu

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm taking rest of afternoon off. Just me and my hog. Hog not dog or cat is man's best friend.

  • springheel_jack

    Best traded on the futures IMO.

  • itsgold

    bought a few calls down here on SPY and GE. Hope I didn't just throw a bunch of money away.

  • molecool

    That's what I thought…. not liking the Zero signal though. Geronimo might hold all day through the whipsaw… annoying tape again.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Of course — where do you think I'm stealing all my great ideas from?

  • katzo7

    Research time, strength of this blog is in numbers.
    Gap fill on the VIX? Mole, Alpha, anyone else jump in.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • Keirsten

    Saw a few big block buys fire up when SPY filled the gap, but nothing since…. watching…. 92.69 was gap fill.

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Just saw 15k contracts bought at 915.75 via block trades, probably short covering and possibly some longs.

  • Osso

    many goldstocks at/piercing the 50 ema. Will they re test the 200 ema.???? or even pullback a lot more..???

  • alphahorn

    lol, you've got plenty of them

  • springheel_jack

    I think we might retest 928 here. I'll be adding shorts there if we do. I think we'll see 885 this week.

  • Keirsten

    Yep- these charts are broken- the Qs are on the verge of a golden cross on the daily EMAs, but not if this continues- it'll just repel.

  • Fujisan

    Both GOOG and AAPL hit my targets. I hope today is OPX. Took half off.

  • springheel_jack

    We are well overdue a sharp correction here. If we get to 880/885 that will be a great entry point for longs with a stop at 872 or so, in case we go lower.

    I don't see a deeper correction coming here though. Does anyone?

  • Keirsten

    Beautiful rounded top formation on AAPL happening since 5/26/60 min. Congrats on those trades Fujisan. πŸ™‚

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, K.

  • Keirsten

    I just figure it out when I get there Jack. LOL Less worry, no hurry. I just wish I wasn't babysitting someone else's trades again this week, as now I've got about 31 plates I'm trying keep spinning here.

  • springheel_jack

    alphahorn, where are we up to here in your opinion. Much of wave 4 remaining?

  • alphahorn

    as i've mentioned i have a ton of $VIX calls, here's why

    look at this daily chart of the VIX and notice for the first time since the march lows (w/ 1 brief exception) the RSI is about to break through 50; also, the MACD has been below 0 since then and has finally crossed over and heading back up. when it does you should see the VIX break out its bullish declining wedge and the target is 50! now, it's not confirmed yet, but i like its chances

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • springheel_jack

    Best to consider the full picture there, you're right.

    Sounds like you're going to have a complicated week. Opex fun.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    NEW POST

  • katzo7

    Thnx Alpha.

  • alphahorn

    believe it or not I think it has just begun, that first chop was iv of 3, now it appears 4 itself is underway

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    also, see my post on the VIX in response to Katzo below

  • springheel_jack

    Vix @ 50 would represent a very deep equities correction. We haven't seen 50 since the rally started.

  • springheel_jack

    Got it. Thanks.

  • Keirsten

    LOL- you have no idea. Fortunately, none of these are options trades or I'd be poking my own eyes out right about now.

  • Douala

    I know you are busy watching your partner's trade. But when you get time could you tell me what a “golden cross” is and what figures are you suing for your EMA[s]… 5 & 20?

  • Keirsten

    No problem Douala- A golden cross occurs when the 50 MA or 50 EMA crosses over the 200 of either. On the other hand, a death cross occurs when the opposite happens. Institutions watch for both as important hallmarks of strength or weakness. On my daily charts I stick mainly to using EMAs, and I use the 5/10/20/50/200. Intraday I typically run a 4/9/18 EMA.

  • Douala

    Thanks! That was very helpful…

  • Yux

    UNG again.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77
  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/SYAjVZu7

    Retrace to broken channel line? Were is PPT

  • Keirsten

    Hi Buddy! Sorry I missed this earlier- boy oh boy, did I have a busy day over here.

    UNG- great call!!!! πŸ™‚ Retraced just like we thought it would before the explosion back up.

  • Yux

    A bit of a work load these days – but quite fun account wise πŸ™‚
    Nearly wet my pants – Got a 200x leverage on UNG instead of 21x by mistake… God I'm glad it didn't dip. I feel like an idiot, a wealthier idiot, but hell I hope I don't make that mistake again. Biggest mistake ever.

    Almost looks like we are setting up for a rerun of last OPEX on UNG? -Meaning we top Tuesday.
    The more research I've done on this thing, the more sure I am of playing natural gas for a while, with a long stance and short covering. I think this thing won't top until after New Year.

    Otherwise playing a bit of TLT. The rest is just daily scalping and a very simple black box system.

  • Yux

    A bit of a work load these days – but quite fun account wise πŸ™‚
    Nearly wet my pants – Got a 200x leverage on UNG instead of 21x by mistake… God I'm glad it didn't dip. I feel like an idiot, a wealthier idiot, but hell I hope I don't make that mistake again. Biggest mistake ever.

    Almost looks like we are setting up for a rerun of last OPEX on UNG? -Meaning we top Tuesday.
    The more research I've done on this thing, the more sure I am of playing natural gas for a while, with a long stance and short covering. I think this thing won't top until after New Year.

    Otherwise playing a bit of TLT. The rest is just daily scalping and a very simple black box system.