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Technical Difficulties
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Technical Difficulties

by The MoleSeptember 10, 2019

Not playing a word game actually, turns out my VPS hosting provider is experiencing a network meltdown this morning and thus I’m unable to log into my NinjaTrader setup. So I switched over to my TOS installation which is also configured as an emergency backup. The data feed is not as precise but it’ll do in a pinch. Rule #1 when it comes to running a trading business: Always expect the unexpected and that at the worst possible time.

Now given that we are supposed to be in a bullish week according to our seasonal stats yesterday’s session was quite a disappointment. Then again last week was supposed to be bearish and look where we ended up.

A mere cursory look at the volume profile chart shows us above a shallow volume hole which should have propelled us higher. However it seems the bots had other plans:

With the exception of last Friday we seem to be experiencing a lot of non-human activity simply judging by the smooth appearance of both the UVOL and DVOL curves. I’m not one to blame ‘evil market makers’ but do believe that we should see a lot more ‘organic’ activity this close to the December roll-over in the E-Mini.

Implied volatility vs. the SPX has continued to point lower since last Thursday, which was interesting given that we advanced higher on Thursday and Friday. We may be looking at participants ‘selling into strength’ as it’s commonly called.

All the above opens the door for a possible retest of the ES 2936 mark. Should we get it then I’d be game for a long position in the E-Mini or a vertical spread in the Spiders.

In the interim I caution everyone from getting drawn into stupid campaigns. If things don’t make sense simply take a step back and wait until they do. Remember, we are not truly out of the summer doldrums until we hit October.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Since BTFD is not working, I am basically unemployable. But I still have my line drawing skills, so I realized I had not looked at a monthly chart in some time. When I pulled up the SPX on a monthly, I recalled the 2009 low of 666 and change. Are these market makers messing with us or was that just providence?

    Funny how an top trend line from the March 2000 highs gets to our resistance at January 2018, late October 2018 and late July 2019. Just saying…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dfe8925f82b9f96826af525b7395d11d5f42bb978de5b7d203ebc2d605e36b66.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    NOW ss kicked in today! Good again on a pull back to 250 – maybe…

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    TWLO, TTD. VEEV, NOW and everything I loved this year is dying.

  • pepe

    TLT: If $143.25 support doesn’t hold we might see $2-3 down today. Descending RSI now balancing at 50. If I’m wrong I get out (still in the green), if I’m right I’ll ride this wave all the way to the beach.

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie’s gonna be confused.
    😉
    https://i.imgflip.com/2ggaz5.jpg

    “Plan for failure” is the more vanilla term.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    RAD back for more SS fun!

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    My swing short from yesterday at 2975.75 is taking shape. We’ll see how it ends up.

    I always try to remember that price is always right even though it doesn’t have to make any sense. 🙂

  • HD

    Nice trade! I know some folks that sold the VWAP at the close….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I suspect she is expecting.She was unsuspecting the expecting lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You are pregnant with Wisdom.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    VEEV A strong hammer at the late May gap I too have traded VEEV
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • pepe

    Previous price channel upper trend line now support at $142.60. If that folds TLT might tumble. Volume will decide. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    focused on the RUT….if it joins SPX breakout….new highs…..above 1540 and it gets bullish makeover…

  • Edgy

    Mole, I’d like to know why you prefer NinjaTrader over ToS. I know one trader who was discussing using algorithms did not like NT for that purpose, and maybe not for either futures or forex (don’t remember which right now).
    If you’ve already discussed it, I’ll be happy to get a link to it. Thanks!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Impulsive Move.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT 62 – 63 not 62 – 53
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI 69 would be the ceiling.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Excellent Glad you watch volume
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Looking to short EXAS on bounce to a lower high Target on possible bounce 113
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    hit below first target ment’d yesterday….right now the big boys seem to be rotating out on huge run up symbols….and buying beat up symbols….especially in biotech…
    AVEO could run to 1.60 on news released today…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Agree completely RW The sector medical diagnostics were all hit yesterday AVEO on radar Thanks RW
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..took 2/3’rds off the table. helluva wait.

    I will trail the rest, like BL does.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05b8ca6ed803076d163396d814248d87e2639622e43b0f076eec7823dee926cf.png

  • nirav777
  • nirav777

    Do we need the admiral?

  • nirav777
  • ridingwaves

    shorts will battle as float is large but if it holds above 200sma, it has plenty of room to run…..consolidate above provides easy stop price…

    MESO had great news also…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Late yesterday posted possible back test of breakout approx 2950
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    on daily a move down to 96 creates nice cup and handle…Cup is done, now we wait….similar fractal as SPX before breakout also…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC mirrors BKX to a “T” We can watch BAC for volume on possible pullback Their respective 5 ema’s are similar BKX 5 ema approx 96 matching your 96
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am watching TVIX as another compression bull flag and have been waiting on a pole over ES 3000 and TVIX lower bound 13.6-14 area to really go after it. I have also been super busy at work actually doing work! Q4…. all my parts come in and they want a year’s work of work in one quarter as usual. So…. not as much fun as usual. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67a256a3a0a890c687eee5b2118a43140ca8313c84e4d5a1e479dee81b0be0ce.jpg

  • pepe

    TLT dropping on two days when the $SPX has pulled back tells me that IF the market pops (which is the favored scenario right now) we’ll see a big drop in bond prices. Possible reaching the $136-$137.50 gap area. On pace for average daily volume.

  • ridingwaves

    my hunch on LABU is now turning into a bitter reality since I sold out…armed and ready on one more signal

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve seen TLT sold, and then SPX bought soon after.
    or Vice Versa.
    always a challenge.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’d like to see a more definitive move in the ratio!!
    [SPX:TLT]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3ATLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97159348288

  • ridingwaves

    rate cut next week and it will find lows again….we are back in Bizarro world….

  • pepe

    My presumed correlation might be a stretch but I do think that risk on deflates bond prices – in theory.

  • ridingwaves

    BAMM and there it goes…..Rate cuts must be lock….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cotton (BAL.. ETN) continuing it’s advance.
    JULIE

  • HD

    HWB at ES 74

  • HD

    You nail the lows more than anyone! Kudos

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Weekly chart LABU three candles with bottoming tails with this week a higher low. Weekly MACD 5,34,5 a positive divergence.Definitely worth watching and ready to pull trigger
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the rut broke out of that fractal……Biotech should ride with it…..seems folks have an inside bet on Fed 1/4 pt reduction…….bizarro world now in effect…..stay nimble…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Possibly 1/4 pt already priced in. 50 basis points and WOW !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX IMO Bullish above 2973.22 …. Bearish below 2969.96 on 60 min chart As RW states below bizarro and be nimble
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did you buy my System Building Course? Discussed there in much detail.

  • HD

    Cha Ching

  • HD

    My experience is that most ‘pros’ care about directions and most don’t trade options. Futures is the best bang for your buck. Period

  • Edgy

    Yes sir, I most certainly did! I have only scratched the surface, but now I know to be watching for it. Danke.
    P.S. It’s nice to finally have a face & voice to Sir Mole to go with the silly cartoon avatars. 😛

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD IMO options are used for hedging by the pros. Pros use VIX calls for hedging long positions
    JULIE

  • HD

    I kind of use the term pro loosely. If someone wants to call themselves a pro I guess that’s their prerogative.

    Hedging is a guaranteed loss. Jmho

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I personally know of several firms where it’s the other way around. Speculation is done via options and gamma risk is hedged via the ES futures.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pro means you have a license and are regulated – that is the common definition among quants at least.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Look for the trading platforms episode – I put a lot of work into it.

  • HD

    My brother in law fits that profile. Manages a huge amount of capital. Doesn’t have an effing clue how to trade. Just sells mutual funds for commissions. FWIW.

  • HD

    Agree. ES is the historic hedge

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT target 139
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Gimme an Apple Watch with stand alone cell and WiFi.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Me too GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have a cup of tea.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its true the only price evidence has been for upside so strong short covering would need to happen pretty soon….or that wild last wave upside blow off scenario.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Zero aesthetics; Apple has lost its Mandate.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I ate lunch. Slice of Boars Head ham, slice of swiss (I went to the deli), 1 pickled egg, and a 1/2 lb or more of grapes. (This is not a usual lunch)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Been to China? This is a Communist country… everyone needs to take this obviousness very seriously….and pay attention to what the Chinese ex-pats are saying of how their minds are trained.

  • HD

    Lock in 10

  • pepe

    Q: How did you settle on EMA 5, 21 and 55? Just curious.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    They are fibonacci exp numbers I also use 89 – 144 – 233 – 377
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    On the surface, it’s been painted as democratic. True colors are being revealed.
    but don’t listen to me. lookup YouTube –
    “Steve Bannon’s Take On China’s Elite Economic Warfare (w/ Kyle Bass)”
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also 8 and 13 ema which are fibonacci numbers
    JULIE

  • VXXTrader

    I think your brother in law is Series 6 or 7. I believe Mole is saying Series 57’s like Tony are considered pro’s in quantland.

    https://evilspeculator.com/you-dont-know-what-you-dont-know/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I have read articles that India will overtake China economically. India is a democracy and China is not
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    A fantastic Shame; most US citizens have very little idea just how comparatively good is the basis for the USA and how we all need to be very mean to defend and exemplify its founding principles.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I had a salad jello yogurt and a fruit platter
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Thank you! 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    both you guys, too much sugar in the fruit.
    LOL.

  • Ronebadger

    I’m skinny

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Natural sugar not refined sugar Big difference
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Think it may just fill this gap $90-$92 and go back up. Went long via selling PUTs. Stop $87 as on this chart:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBUX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57514106738

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hope price reality finally wakes people up better than the coffee has.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Better than Meowmix

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have 87 as a target
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Another strong day follow thru from yesterday’s strong day
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Again from previous post below Target $BKX 101 – 102
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Doh!

  • pepe

    TLT chart now looks ugly. No rescue attempts whatsoever last 30 minutes. Another $2.50-3.00 drop and target met. Exit plan ready if bounce appears from nowhere. But failing the upper price channel trend line should rattle ’em longs and shake their tree. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8285e7efc1c6c41a98d6bbf68e30016e616dfad9fa2b9d51ddd9a07eeb18d58.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Take off the 1

  • nirav777

    It was Zero, not me… i just look at the picture

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Best country on earth. Don’t get me wrong – I love living in Europe right now. But I don’t want to die here – will be back for sure.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe Watch 139 TLT
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK 1 is now stripped
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    let’s see if 140 can deliver a dead cat (meow) bounce. bloody nose for the greedy bear.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d43258498af7c2ece1d88722a45a214546137e20557b230f5909929fdaa4a6c.png

  • pepe

    Thanks. Will do.

  • Mark Shinnick

    How about 80ish ?

  • spicestory