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Temptation
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Temptation

by The MoleDecember 18, 2018

So let’s talk precious metals and bonds. Both clearly are markets which, given the unfolding train-wreck in equities, currently look ripe for the plucking. Unfortunately the Fed rate decision announcement scheduled for this Wednesday afternoon is throwing a rabid wrench wielding monkey into my operation.

Just look at this gold chart…. so juicy! As you know I have been following at this chart for a while now and under normal circumstances I would have jumped on it a day or two ago while it was scraping the NLSL near 1240.

Same situation over in silver, especially given that beautiful 100-day BB which continues to squeeze ever so tighter. If you’ve been coming here for a while then you probably know that both of these setups have my name written all over them.

And even the Yen is moving in the right direction as the USD has continued to plunge in recent days.

Here are the 30-year treasury bond futures, right at the spot where I would usually go short and flip for a long on breach of the neckline. Very tempting…

The main argument against all of these fine break out entry opportunities is the dangling Damocles sword in the form of a possible change in Fed policy on Wednesday. It’s not just whether or not they decide to hold at 2.25% this time but even more so the prospective long term outlook for 2019.

In general I have no issue taking lottery tickets at strategic inflection points, but after a number of very painful experiences in 2008 I have never again attempted to pre-anticipate the Fed when it came to their interest rate policies. And especially in turbulent times like these capital preservation remains my #1 priority, which means for now I must hold off, as painful as it may end up be watching them run off without me.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • TimeToPanic

    Long NQ at 6524. The fib at 6503 looks to have held. Up in to my cycle high around 24th of December.

    Re the Fed and interest rates Mole, isn’t it all just noise? The markets set rates, the Fed is the poodle.

    Fwiw, I expect a spike in good in to late January, then a swift decline for a month or so, then off to the races during 2019.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Good advice – keep it tight ahead of tomorrow:
    What could the fed do?
    1 Raise as expected but signal pausing
    2. no raise – (bowing to political pressure?)
    3 cut rates – admit that things worse than expected -unlikely – and lose credibilit

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Think that either way the market goes down after initial reaction (unless they cut!)
    why?
    A raise makes for more worry about the economy slowing too much
    a pause – worries about economy slowing more than anticipated!
    new lows for Christmas and then possible rally into year end
    Pure speculation obviously – more time to think!

  • Jason13
  • Sp00nman

    A bit OT from trading but just my thoughts.. I’d bet at this point the Fed pauses. Treasuries have been catching a bid and rates have been falling so the bond market has given them some room to pause. The issue now is Trump has been running his mouth so darn much that now it makes the Fed look like they’re bending to political pressure. This is one of the many examples where if Trump would learn to keep his mouth shut he would’ve been better off.

    With that said, I gotta wonder what the next recession is going to look like. Our federal deficit is quite large getting towards the end of an economic cycle and rates are relatively low. I’ve learned to never underestimate the Fed (they can always start more QE and come up with other ways to inflate assets), but things will be harder as we won’t have the fiscal stimulus provided by a fresh deficit.

  • maxcherry

    the FED is raising rates as commodity prices bounce off multi decade lows

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2397d29277c012640f2282b8b0ea7ecf8a931e7aec9a9d65e8f072984dac27af.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…no matter what, that chart is pretty interesting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    doesn’t really matter. (should they correlate?)
    If it worked for Japan, hey – it can work for U.S.A.
    Zero Forever!

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Japan_overnight_interest_rates_1985_2012.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..I assume we’re above VWAP..
    πŸ˜‰

  • zzezzezz

    @Gerbil_Gold:disqus is today the cycle alignment?

  • Brishort

    It calculates from the open of the regular session.

    Therefore not by much! Inconclusive intel from VWAP at this point.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ee548eb120069a08f1d5f126499294fa2e024ba2c59477ea472f7d9556792a4.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    adding to UWT 11.53 this morning… 12.6, 12.2 now 11.53, Longer term hold.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    see red lines. (yes)
    but as Mole posted above, front running (The FED) can be painful.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8911f1f4877193307b8903d20e8f0d2b8e47c819796a573ca0df5f02ae752162.png

  • Sp00nman

    HYG not looking very bullish today opening lower.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s why I’m thinking about the 21/24th.
    this week ain’t over.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A little early but don’t forget.
    Next Tuesday is Xmas. (yes, I know, shocking)

    and Monday the day before? short day NYSE hours.
    https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    Hey GG, do you remember the guy who stated if the rally got to the 20 day sma within three days off the bottom it was real and the bottom was in? You must go back many years. I believe you are the only one here back in the day when he posted. He was a trend guy rather than a day trader. Scott was around at the time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I believe it was Fearless. The guy removed many of his comments when he left.
    I didn’t take notes before-hand.

  • Ted

    Yes that’s the guy!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    they can talk up or center a pause around inflation risks have backed off….

  • maxcherry

    the day after Christmas, DEC 26th, is the best trading day of the year, being positive 31 of 38 times since 1950 in the spx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s 81.6%

    that’s lining up with my 24th.
    confirmation bias! must..not….bias.

  • DaVerg

    i think I will have more luck winning at Jack Rabbit’s Slims contest than this yo yo market that has been internally damages beyond repair at this point in time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSLMN6g_Od4&index=2&list=RDxtjiVTSs8pc

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Make that 81.5789474% Please be more precise GG …. Seriously GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m sure many share your sentiment. I’m likely to join you.

    However, nothing stays the same.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ee432533398a9af58d6495342ee9e3cf265cb85c0bbb8b3f050979258ce3c95.png

    If equities are going to surprise, it would be around now.
    (see July 2016)

  • DaVerg

    you like Elvis or the Beatles ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only a few songs. Listened to a lot of them in the 70’s.
    But I’m more of a VanHalen guy.

  • DaVerg

    signal across multiple study “time” frames, not really time frame though

  • DaVerg
  • DaVerg
  • Ted

    We had step 1 VIX buy signal yesterday. Step 2 is most likely today. If we get step 3 tomorrow and it fails then according to Fearless it’s all over. i tend to agree.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….but it needs to be coded and tested otherwise its simply local conditions curve fitting.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Retained 1/4 GLD from yesterday Stop now 117.75
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Did Grizz help you with the calculator?
    Blondes can only turn on men.
    LOL.
    =P

  • DaVerg

    what is this “coded and tested” thing you mention? And what does “simply local conditions curve fitting ” mean. Seriously I have no idea what you just posted, please elaborate, in simple plain English so I stupid horse like me can understand.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Perfect questions! You are at the right place !!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2530 on the nose GG …. Going to pick the winner of next years Kentucky Derby in advance … on the nose ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • DaVerg

    i think i entered a time – space continuuuum (only word with more than one u in a row) ”

    What is the space continuum?Space-time is a mathematical model that joins space and time into a single idea called a continuum. This four-dimensional continuum is known as Minkowski space. … But in a relativistic universe, time cannot be separated from the three dimensions of space”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted You must really watch the VIX at Bollinger Band center line 20 sma. I basically have the same setup as the Chief BUT add the 10 ema and a PPO 1,10,1 You can see the % above and below the 10 ema coupled with the bands where a reversal is most likely to occur
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I heard one definition of time that works for me, paraphrased: Time exists…to keep everything from all happening at once.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m seeing a continuing trend, with those occasional excursions to tap bottom (invisible targets).
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/edf3051d6153d7cc41eb87a73a0724eee1bf549e98c8142501296756bf3cd856.png

  • Ted

    what is PPO?

  • Sp00nman

    We are back to the close from yesterday and the 50% fib from yesterday’s up move. Maybe now we chop into tmw’s announcement?

  • Jason13

    Anybody have 2478 as a target…an equal leg of the initial drop from 2941 to 2604?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Percent Price Oscillator … PPO indicators stockcharts.com
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Snagged a few $s shorting near $2570s earlier AM and just exited. No stomach for it to reach 2540s as on your nice chart…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason I have an important level 2482
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    My present objective is about 2510….close enough, but that does not account for blow off or resulting cascade.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Taking a stab long .. This a.m a gap and go up to a down trend line then a pullback to fill the gap. The 2530 target yesterday important
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    +1 on the fire for 4R UWT as a hold. My average is 11.7 (10.47, also today 11.53, yesterday 12.6, 12.2)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    USO,
    not looking good. any weekly outside the envelope (arrows) has penalty.

    Lower oil prices should help an economy.
    A hurting economy has lower oil prices.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e938984fae8cf6da0f183b43e02bbd7cd75105db309df37fe9e44820e35e6a27.png

    #USO

  • Ted

    Thanks. Simple or exponential? do I have it correct short period of 1 and a long period of 10?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted The PPO is exponential parameters 1,10,1
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some models now triggering buy….sypertight.

  • maxcherry

    from the 2941 high also from the dec high, both target around 2478 that’s also the trend-line from 2011

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e6b2c37946312fcd4c6d8c31f9c6f55941ee033e20223dac04f52470b271055.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    More models triggering…somethin’s up….could easily go wild either way pretty soon.

  • Ted

    Yesterday’s NYMO was -69.63. It could go lower but a bounce is near. I would not be holding short overnight at this point. Short is extremely risky at this juncture. IMHO

  • Ted

    Thank you! LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted I use $NYMOT .. -150 to -200 is oversold and reverse for overbought
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Don’t jump the gun!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SOX making a move today … $BKX not so … BUT BAC the big dog and leader is possibly closing above it’s 5 ema today which should lead
    JULIE

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    $NDX nice 30 min candle, so far. 10 mins to go. Should drag the rest up and not be sold last min.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Is oil and USO telling us anything.! ! Guys $UTIL took a huge dump yesterday and today an intraday reversal. The UTES usually have the FED down to a “T” which could mean a rate increase Wednesday … Watch the UTES !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    That is -209

  • Ted

    We need a hike and pause. Without a hike the market will think something is really wrong which it does not know about. Thanks for all your tips. I’m feeling better today. I was a day early but stuck to my guns and did not bail yesterday.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Exactly Ted .. The big consensus is no rate hike the Market will surge. You have the same sentiment as me .. No rate hike means an admission by the FED of a slowing economy and market dumps and not surges. Too much huh ! The FED always screws up either too late or not enough. They never get anything right. As stated yesterday the 3 month yield has been rising which will force the FED to hike
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the QE unwind is like adding .50 already with 374 billion…they might have to pause to really look at rates vs unwind = real yield?

  • Ted

    I’m going out to work. It should not be considered a market moving event since none of you have any history to place any bets. LOL

  • ridingwaves

    I don’t know what it means other than you can buy oil at same price as 2008….

  • Ted

    It means less pain for me as I drive a 1995 GMC Sierra which gets about 12 mpg.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    go ahead – figure it all out.
    Just tell me one thing.
    “Is it already baked into the cake”?

    I thought so.
    GG drops the Mic.

    Off to Lunch!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Yesterday paid 2.59 What is the average price in Bay Area ?
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    LOL…meaning this drop baked in the non rate hike and therefore up we go?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    simple minds think news comes out, and price reacts, following reason.
    this is not always the case.

  • ridingwaves

    higher, its california….
    yield inversion example

    12/04/18 bond market

    1 Mo 2.37
    2 Mo 2.42
    3 Mo 2.42
    6 Mo 2.58
    1 Yr 2.71
    2 yr 2.80
    3 yr 2.81
    5 yr 2.79 (wowie .. an inversion)
    7 yr 2.84
    10 yr 2.91
    20 yr 3.05
    30 yr 3.16

    If you want to call this an inverted yield curve, OK.
    Here’s an inverted yield curve from 2-12-08:

    1 Mo 2.55
    3 Mo 2.31
    6 Mo 2.12
    1 yr 2.06
    2 yr 1.94
    3 yr 2.13
    5 yr 2.71
    7 yr 3.13
    10 yr 3.66
    20 yr 4.43
    30 yr 4.46

    Note that you have to go out to 5 years to get a yield better than a 1 month treasury bond. Now that’s INVERSION!

  • Jason13

    Agreed.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason IMO They will hike … The UTES are expecting a hike
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks RW
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reality?? what a concept πŸ™‚ Maybe we don’t dare get too close in this house of cards.

  • ridingwaves

    np, lets hope the gap on NG fills, I’m loading up at 3.30 if so, momo says might have hit ceiling and perhaps push it down…. or perhaps that 3.50 area is just too much support https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92bf5774db6e97bd53f429214351320401e306bec48ff9907b9503e25360f647.png

  • HD

    Turn around Tuesday, rally. Pointed this TL out yesterday and of course our friendly HWB. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a1f66a679e9b73812a27caa02454bf437ee49c47aa6140ddeac8317b76e563c.png

  • HD
  • HD
  • ridingwaves

    the cards are looking worn even for this economically upbeat bull….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I like the chart RW
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The merchants are starting to charge for cash back option using a debit card ! They can kiss my 36 inch butt !
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    SPX is up. VIX is up…so far, on a second day’s Step One Buy Signal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dde3416ce1e8acf283bb90ff04bea212e406fe45c2dba4ef2e184f0bf81a65f0.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Going out BE .. Going to wait for tomorrow
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    XBI pointing towards 71.30, oil down, Jasons area 2478 is going to get hit by looks of it, 2464 area overthrow….

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    OK trading today has alleviated oversold conditions on lower time frames…
    so could get the next move down
    but with Fed tomorrow may be delayed

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well,,,supports simply not holding….arguing for blowoff or cascade.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have a very important level 2482 matching both Jason and Max
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    So the question is, as GG said, this drop has already built it in and now a move up. I’d love a big drop today then immediate reaction after Fed, then buy.

  • ridingwaves

    matching oil low today would put SPX in area your mentioning, I like it stabbing to 2467…..

  • Jason13

    It was a reasonable shot. My short got taken out with small gain but flat now

  • Jason13

    Check this puppy out. Stole this from another page. Anyone here into harmonics? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/491e4de1ab124591222f10ad4628eb4fd2132026fc72a2c93d1de6aeb8261989.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    i have another level at 2452
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    ….so… buy or sell? πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason Intraday a consolidation could go either way..
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Jason several weeks ago I posted a harmonic target close to the one you are presenting
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    According to this, buy. But when, who knows.

  • HD

    I like harmonics but like EW think best practice is the small timeframes and smaller patterns.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No Jason .. I do not watch tv like most people. I enjoy charting at night and learning from all my husband’s notes. I find it enjoyable and relaxing
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I guess it’s down now

  • HD

    anybody buying?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Just now, supertight.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Buyers getting exhausted early, rest of the market (except NQ) unable to
    break first hour’s high and small caps now with new low for the day.
    Sellers doing the better job shorting strength.

  • Ronebadger

    Not yet..not with the VIX cranking. I’m waiting for a sign. SPX cranking with a BIG drop in VIX.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back from lunch.

    Equities aside. Metals.

    Anybody see copper punched in the face? (check the daily)
    and GDX makes a run higher? something’s going on.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p92669758357

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I know Jason LOL! I used to be on another blog where I was ridiculed and treated terribly.by a poster Funny thing is I smoked em time and again and he did not even know it I threw curve balls at this clown and kept him guessing This blog is female friendly with great guys and gals too. I have a home here and the Chief disallows trolls
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the VIX can’t be cranking. BKX would be crowing like, well – a CROW!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72042888370

  • zzezzezz

    Staying short for now…

  • Sp00nman

    Definitely odd.. maybe economic/demand concerns for copper are causing the selloff? It should put pressure on PM’s but who knows. Maybe “it’s different this time.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s pretty. that have a name for that pattern.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    doesn’t look great on a weekly chart – if Dr Copper is going down – oops https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69bc8bd6366fcc519cb878bcaddf5034ab3a5be0f358a6327f950baba022b3a0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cougars. every forum should have one.

    ..and just one.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wide? divide by two sweets!
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    even the uber bull here is consumed by the dark side….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKcAYMb5uk4

  • Sp00nman

    Yep.. Interesting thing about copper is that it isn’t used nearly as much in residential home plumbing anymore. The most common materials are pex or pvc. Not sure if in commercial it’s still standard but my point is that there isn’t the huge demand for it like decades ago for plumbing. I wonder if that has caused demand to wain over the years. Gold is money, or so I’m told.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “what if it doesn’t come back?….. what if that was the top?…. how will I face my family?…. THE HORROR”.

  • ridingwaves

    I played the youtube and read your sentence, funny shit….
    I see a gap that I never saw before, say a little prayer for me….I never, I never

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP GLD I bought the pullback to the rising 21 ema .. took 3/4 off going into resistance yesterday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4db0021b2574a9549e9386e28eed29b32ac094c756fc603e59a50458265738bf.png .. Still have 1/4 position with stop at 117.75 Overbought weekly and daily with a possible 3 drives to the top pattern from mid August. I expect a pullback mid upper red dotted line Raff Regression JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    price is going to run it to the end of the day.
    then it’s a Mystery.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b1c0f8f4a3ef6cff30850c46988f9c62ad75aefd984e7f6f9ad09066862cae6.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Same chart I have GG even with the down trend line You get an A+ LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    oil will be free next week…..incredible move from high

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Our 1st clue IMO will be a daily PMO bottoming
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also a higher low.. About to punch down thru it’s signal line now
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sometimes, straight lines are a ‘necessary evil’.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Blue eyed blonde Yes ! BUT … Her hair is too short ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    give me a break. look at those nails! perfect!
    πŸ˜‰

    edit: I think she’s calling for $21 oil.
    (see how human brain looks for signs & signals?)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did you miss the Train? I have picture of your chart up on the wall!
    πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…looks like needs some sort of blow off.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    update: well that was fast. something slipped!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Broke below 61.8% retracement and lower gap window … Not good !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nice channel. one of your better ones.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was expecting a break below 50 and uwt at 10. I should have been more patient because here it is

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Zee bonds..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Yellowstone Cauldron exploding is the end of me ! Good Bye Julie… It’s been a wonderful … wonderful life … !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as my Father would say. “all good things come to an end, son”.
    He could be a wet blanket sometimes.
    πŸ™

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    “This too shall pass”
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been missing most of this sell off. I do some scalping which has been good. I was really not expecting a total fail. I used to live for the turd of a turd and now that it is possibly here I guess I just can’t believe it after being burned every time for 10 years. I was looking at crude oil as a value play on a hopeful year end rally. I was expecting a break below 50 to buy…. we both talked about 47. I have been scaling into a position to just hold.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    For those newbs waiting to get long?…..use the blue line as a reentry signal (green arrow)

    at least it’s a setup.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bef86ff1b6511068291631213d2f82d636920a39aa31abd8b141b48028c4bfa6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nope GG Left hand is the Playboy magazine insignia ! Can’t fool me ! That is the hand signal of the “bunnies”
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pretty remarkable SP only off about .6%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Man this market is a slow motion trainwreck..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpMfP6qUSBo

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you could count waves.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7tx84SmuCI

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll buy it, but first – tell me what that right hand is for?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mole’s been very quiet.
    I wonder if he got in trouble for that “hard to borrow” tip.

    Then again, maybe that was his ship coming in.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Anyone going long on a lower volume retest of 2530 ? Positive divergence 60 min chart
    I may nibble will post if I do
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. that nibble yesterday has turned bad.
    I’m down $50.
    πŸ˜‰

    Fire Drill, gotta go.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes but used in rest of the world especially in wires, telecommunications and electric cars, and other uses

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One … She just likes one guy ! Very nice wholesome lady !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot couple min ago, tight.

  • Darkthirty

    Must be post menopausal…..needing all that lube

  • Mark Shinnick

    Going its great job undermining confidence.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX nibbling long Guys … Just a nibble
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    should I time check? I dunno.

    It’s just me and the cougars.

    oh well..

    Time Check.

    http://www.character-shop.com/images/cougars2.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG … No I will not go out with you !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the HUI….important moment for gold bugs tomorrow….could race to 181…or go opposite https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89b98797062414d3c452afa1c1a9d2f7ffa948a596c09af34f1a129ab5124948.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Not with the VIX up 4% plus

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Your nibble cost you 50 bucks ! Just hand it over to me Thank You GG ! Gotta know when to nibble ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    maybe blow it’s top tomorrow?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I am laughing so hard I am crying and I must get back to work ! What a day !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just don’t P3. tee hee.

  • Ronebadger

    Today SHOULD be another VIX Step One

  • BKXtoZERO

    I had a customer at my place today so I missed everything……..

  • Darkthirty

    That’s what she said……..and it wasn’t a compliment

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day ! Positions held 1/4 long GLD with a stop 117.75 and a very small nibble long SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Possible tweezer candlestick pattern at 2530 low. I nibbled on the lower volume retest of 2530
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Yikes…get back from staff Xmas party and see quite the Yo-Yo afternoon. Took a skilled short term trader to ride that puppy. Glad I was out.

  • Jason13

    How bout this for an edge…Since 2007 there have been only 18 instances where the daily RSI(2) has been below 2.5 for 2 days in a row. In 83% of cases (15/18), if you bought at the end of the 2nd day and held until the RSI went above 2.5, you made money with a profit factor of 10.2. Do with it as you will.

  • Jason13

    Another FYI, the last 6 FOMC days have been down days….is tomorrow lucky number 7?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I thought it was 9, that counted.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://c.mql5.com/18/20/382d.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    yes it was.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    someone liked Elvis? I’ll take the drink.

    What an end to 2018.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGFyMuMgvrk

  • Ted

    GG Do you any rules regarding BPSPX? It’s all the way down to 26.40.

  • Ted

    Found your tip down below. Thanks

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sell your mother and BTFD.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • kim

    i’m not actively trading this thing, just observing lately https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/944e38f6e14b1d2549fb40d79cf4f30a6e9b5af01e821e95bf859df3a3f200fb.png , given chart is just some of possible scenarios