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Ten Years On
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Ten Years On

by The MoleJune 19, 2019

Ten years since the launch of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and investors are still pining for yet another interest rate cut. Just let that one roll around in your mind for a moment. A few years back in one of my pertinent posts I mused that we would probably never again see a meaningful interest rate hike during our lifetime. And sure enough, here we are a decade later, still sitting in the same hole we dug for ourselves. Just that it’s a lot deeper now.

Europe is already nose diving into another recession and although the U.S. economy is looking better the Fed continues to openly flaunt its willingness to drop interest rates at the drop of a hat. The magic phrase that I keep hearing during FOMC announcements over the past few years has been ‘if conditions warrant’. It’s become the gospel of every Fed chairman/chairwoman since Bernanke, and its beauty lies in its lack of meaning.

It’s simply another way of expressing that low interest rates and monetary expansion are the new normal reflecting a Zeitgeist of unlimited spending and never ending inflationary experiments on a global scale. It’s a race to the bottom where even the winner ends up losing, just a little less than everyone else.

The Demons We Summoned

However easy solutions often happen to have the unfortunate side effect of punishing the innocent and rewarding the guilty. Moral hazard did not stop at externalizing the losses of a few to become the responsibility of the many. It continued to grow from there andΒ is the very reason why a badly insulated shack in California has now ballooned to $440k on average, and why a large percentage of millenials are considering capitalism as an evil that should be vanquished.

TINSTAFL indeed and the demons we summoned in 2008, unless exorcized by a willingness to implement politically inconvenient solutions, will demand an ever steeper price for our inability to ween ourselves of the monetary addiction that is slowly sucking the life out of our nation. What remains of it in the end may just be a shadow of its former self, a mere shell designed to serve the whims of its corporate masters. Pretty much like the situation we have in Europe today, courtesy of the European Union.

Donald Vs. Powell

No I don’t blame the Donald for wanting lower interest rates, and in that itself lies the problem. Why should he be the one to take the fall for the policies of its predecessors (Democrat and Republican alike)? Let’s assume for a moment that President Trump would consider risking a market crash by suggesting higher interest rates for the foreseeable future. There pretty much go his chances for 2020 as the economy is the one record nobody can challenge him on, at least as of right now.

And whether or not he takes 2020, the next president who follows him is not going to want to be remembered as the one who crashed the stock market. The Fed’s Pandora’s Box was opened in 2008 and the forces it unleashed will keep us trapped in low interest monetary policies for many years to come.

Quick update on my campaigns. I decided to take an entry upon breach of my long trigger. Although the 1R mark has not been reached I have advanced my stop to break even. Of course on a fast move lower I may still take a loss and that’s the reason why I only deployed a small position in the first place.

Copper however did scrape the 1R mark and thus a move to break/even does not require bending the rules. Just about time this one got a move on as the roll-over date is fast approaching.

My ISL in crude however remains. I took this one early last week if I remember correctly and it’s been very slow going. However that also suggests that we are forming a base here which should be useful on a retest lower. For now a hands-off policy will serve us best, after all if I saw today’s formation (and wasn’t yet positioned) I would be very tempted to take an entry.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Wow! Fantastic piece Mole and FWIW, I agree with everything you said. The part about no president wanting to take the blame for risking a market crash from a rise in interest rates kind of reminds me of back during the Vietnam War when no president wanted to be the first one to lose a war so they just kept sending more and more troop over there. Eventually over 58,000 troops lost their lives. If these exceptionally low interest rates have a risk of eventullly killing our economy there is no justification or pass for allowing this to happen. In this regard, it is most unfortunate that most people in power (from either side) only see what’s happening today with no regard for future ramifications.

  • BobbyLow

    HD even if I agree with you it had to go because it would have started another shit storm.

  • HD

    no worries BL. I know where you stand. Trump’s character, his humanity, worldview all suck balls. I don’t even want to participate today in the context of Mole’s post. Too many give this POS a free pass on everything. See you all later.

  • evilasevildoes

    crude stalling on previous low aug

  • DaVerg

    Powell screwed up by raising rates last year, Trump is afraid he’ll do it again. The problem lies not solely with Powell, but with the other libtard regional Fed “advisors” who hate trump. Dems are known to sink the economy, on purpose, for their power mongering. They did it before. When Bush was president, Barney (Fife) and Chris Dodd were heads of their House and Senate financial committees. They ignored , despite being warned, of the pending default crisis. They could have acted but they didn’t. This led directly to election of worst president ever, Barrack Insane Obama, the Kenyan. Even the Boston Globe recognized this. http://archive.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/09/28/franks_fingerprints_are_all_over_the_financial_fiasco/

  • Mark Shinnick

    How really to know that?

  • BobbyLow

    Because that’s what the fuck happens Mark every damn time!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that was Mole’s post title yesterday.
    Partly sunny, chance of Summer Sh!tstorms.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ian lives.

  • BobbyLow

    Went long this morning @ 26521 stop 26495. It’s just drifting and I’ll be out before 2 PM one way or another.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ADOBE is the winner today.
    some lunk-head thought they could short a limping tech?

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADBE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    “The Fed’s Pandora’s Box was opened in 2008…” Ain’t that the truth.

  • mSquare

    Thank you – keep off politics of all types…

  • Ronebadger

    Just read this by someone on Stockcharts: The 19th calendar day has been the worst performing calendar day on the S&P 500 since 1950, producing an annualized return of -34.69%. It’s also been the worst day on the NASDAQ since 1971, producing an annualized return of -33.20%. The 20th calendar day on the NASDAQ has produced an annualized return of -31.70%.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..talkin’ with Cyd, a reminder of what MOle said about getting simple.
    Everybody watches the 50. boring. self fulfilling prophecy. yeah “i get it”.

    but damned if I did a post analysis on one of my watched stocks.
    There was dam nibblers, just under the 50, all the time. (Ignore the Xmas drop).
    The stock needless to say, has moved higher.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec84fc795b14d975c39b3f3417d052c22f0dfd542ea250916b286b124255a845.png
    Lesson learned?….don’t just focus on the median. see if there is a standard deviation (reversals) off the median!!

    -GG

  • zzezzezz

    lol yeah. it’s kinda fun actually. i’ve had a Robinhood account with like $12 in it. went full retard long on bitcoin a while ago and now i’m up to $17!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I would laugh. but instead. I’ll offer you two large papa john pizzas for it.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    KInd of a slow day in here today so I thought I would again share what I consider to be the best and longest standing rules of trading that was first published 96 Years ago. That’s 1923 Folks! This was written by Edwin LefΓ¨vre and part of a biography of Trader Jesse Livermore. There are 23 Rules listed that I try to read every few weeks because of my built in forgettor. I am truly amazed at how most if not all have withstood the task of time!

    https://www.marcellagerwerf.com/jesse-livermore-quotes/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ‘Built in forgetter’ +1
    I forgot to renew the car tag. dam year goes by so fast now, so I signed up for TWO years, dam it!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Politicians are only concerned with renewing their term and thus follow the path of least resistance. Anyone with a vision or care for regular people will get steamrolled in a jiffy.

  • zzezzezz

    I’ll formally back-test this at some point, but it SEEMS that shakeouts typically happen on Fed days with sudden directional changes intraday. This appears to be due to the obvious 2:00pm EST announcement where direction could change quickly, but immediately followed by the 2:30pm EST conference where tone/words flip the direction again.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a9b38dcafc6d835899db80aef5e4a10737065e54b14725dfe674ff58d39a9174.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve back tested one year of SPX.
    Wednesdays are the biggest movers in absolute terms ABS(high – low)

  • ridingwaves

    Dems and Pubs, same shit, 2 different piles…..any others try to sneak in between them and shit clean up duty is guaranteed….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..so we can trade off that?
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    got u beat- MLNT- made a couple quick R’s from 4.20 to 6.20, have a little totally free shares to see if follow up move

    1.98 Yesterdau Close
    4.56 Open
    Bid 5.69 x 800
    Ask 5.71 x 3000
    Day’s Range 3.77 – 6.30
    52 Week Range 1.62 – 42.70
    Volume 53,112,389
    Avg. Volume 407,029

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    damn. never saw that one coming.
    see Cyd? these are the one’s you have to watch for.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MLNT&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06515128991

  • ridingwaves

    this should see 360-355, bad candle….I like it…h&s pattern too

  • Cyd

    Occasionally I try to emulate Warren Buffett …lol X has gone from 47 down to 12 and at a support and lower trend line. Now overbought daily and up into it’s 55 ema and a possible pullback. If a pullback and it prints a higher low I may buy for a longer term investment for a hold or position trade Weekly chart the MACD has crossed above signal line and Stochs have crossed above 20 giving a buy signal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f2602395214b86031cc4ea6266a90fd9a22c44385ab66d63f5f44955a1ba6b1.png

    What is interesting is the NYSE American Steel Index is at a 3 year support at 1,000.I am sure that Warren is watching and going to follow my foot steps …lol
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6872a4e61cb9e983f35f5577188fb134832eb388e877efb3888076b629cff29.png

  • ridingwaves

    impossible to see coming, I only get mixed up in volume with large bet after initial down move, float is small, shorts trapped but always gather to push it back in morning, so I got up and waited with bid at 4.20…2 bucks a share….bmmm, off to the road now.. if it gets thru 6.50 it will run to 8.80 area overthrow and close below 8.50…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Jerome,
    for any of you mining aficionados.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome,_Arizona

  • BobbyLow

    Yesterday I specifically back tested the past 4 Fed Days and found these days safe to trade equity futures with my 5 Mimute (I could only go back 4 Fed Days with my 5 Minute) up until 2 PM. Right after 2 PM it can be rocket time and really bad if you’re on the wrong side. It could be safe to get back in after 3 PM if the right opportunity presented itself.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I cannot imagine Warren in lyrca pants. nor do I want to!

  • Cyd

    News Flash WSJ Warren Buffett announces a purchase of 12% of X outstanding shares to become a beneficial owner. He plans on purchasing more at an undisclosed date .lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ema 21 rules as a ceiling. if it holds, double dip.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    News Warren Buffett dead at 88.
    Wall Street holds moment of silence at opening bell.
    ;-D

  • Cyd
  • Cyd
  • zzezzezz

    Any Wednesday? Or FOMC Wednesdays specifically?

  • Cyd

    Historically Wednesday and Friday are the two best performing days of the week. Monday is the least
    Cyd

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    T minus 29.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am holding 1R tvix from yesterday and also .a handsome position in DRV. I expect 2940 to 50 where I hope to beat them over the head but any more than 2950 and my lens changes…set up beyond over at that point.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    any Wednesday.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like the Fed told the market “No Soup For You?”.:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I knew you have that one. LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well they are split on outlook for 2019 as eight officials see lower rates ahead.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Trump tweet in 3,2,1… πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hmmmm… “Focused on downside risks” with a nearly empty toolbox.

  • BobbyLow

    It feels good to have no position through all this BS. From 2:00 PM to 2:05 PM there was a high of 26569 and a low of 26431 – a range of 138 Points. I wonder how many stops got taken out on this move? It’s almost this same shit or worse on every Fed Day. LOL

  • BobbyLow

    Well the Fed can always pay the institutions to take money.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    dam! the FED should have a wet bar in their toolbox.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/70/a5/c8/70a5c86007d40ce28b1db4f60bcbfd14.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I think I remember you back in the day. sweatin and worrying.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have 3… One is gigantic…. One metric…one standard…one specialty box…cabinets stuffed with tools. Ready to rock.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Those go on the wall…. Forgot to mention the wall…. More tools than Jerome. BKX to zero!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    8.80 could be hit here….love me some low float bio stocks, left some on table..

  • zzezzezz

    I’m gonna go ahead and call that short-term double top πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m calling it a Navajo Mesa. πŸ˜‰

    see that rather large gap mid chart?
    Muwahahaha.

  • ridingwaves

    empty? look at page 4 and 5 please…they have knocked off 669 billion from balance sheet
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/quarterly_balance_sheet_developments_report_201905.pdf

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Anyone going to short USO bustin down thru 5 ema and support trend lines ? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0565a013fe29c6d98b34c8572c76fb2729fdbb05efc218b6d02460a92a2674a9.png . As posted before looking for this consolidation to break down for another drop lower
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    crowded trade. but if RSI gets down to 31’ish. then yeah, I’ll grab a 3X’er.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I mean room to cut. They can always buy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Do you know the rule of 7’s for determining a target for a stock ?
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no.

  • Cyd

    I didn’t think so lol I will show you sometime

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    like the pajamas. any time.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    QID, tempting to make an entry right here. right now.
    ..but it could go higher. and high yield isn’t exactly Melting DOWN.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p63145154121

  • Cyd

    SLV a nice bounce too Heading for 14.30 target
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    TECS is on my radar right now, at some point the next 30 days before next meeting, a scare the children moment increases….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..crossing the median is a good start.
    need follow thru!!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91080265432

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that ticker isn’t coming up.

  • Cyd

    Nice volume confirming
    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick

    Since the 1970’s its all been called “The Modern Political Economy”
    In the very nature of what we deal with as traders everyday, POV’s help define that environment. A very slippery slope to be excluding data.

  • Cyd

    Did you have ARRY ? Pfizer acquiring
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    my 13.92 position turned green today!

  • Ronebadger

    I’m a little sick of hearing that the Fed wants inflation. I remember when inflation was 14% in 1979/1980…the Fed was freaking out. I know, I know, it really means that the Fed doesn’t want Deflation…deflation is bad..right? Really? … Maybe that’s what we should have (or should have had in 2008). It’s going to happen…down the road…it’s gonna meet up with that “can down the road”. I say, bring it on. Am I nuts? (Maybe…I’m on antibiotics for pneumonia right now…so maybe a little nuts…)

  • ridingwaves

    edited

  • ridingwaves

    deflation is horrible for the speculators, debt junkies and banks….prudent savers not so much

  • Mark Shinnick

    I have only some drv signaling right here. Main issue is zero signalling yet against HY.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    ok, looks like desert walk for you much needed, its not tied into a future volatility curve….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Took half tvix off…19.8 or so to 19.38.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all lies my crazy friend.
    If Government really wanted inflation, all they would have to do is lower taxes.

  • mSquare

    Or trade wars and tariffs ?

  • ridingwaves

    or give money to consumers instead of banks…..or raise minimum wage….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    over my pay grade.
    Taxes are deflationary. You have less, to buy less. Demand destruction pure and simple.

  • Cyd

    CRB Commodity Index a 3.5 year trading range Breaks below 165 then 160 deflation a very real possibility
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6fed3204b0aa599932eb7f507277e505af3fec311d3a646cab98476102eab5c6.png

  • BobbyLow

    I remember a friend of mine buying a house with a 13% Mortgage Interest Rate back then. I also remember when if you wanted to buy something you had better buy it today because it would cost more tomorrow.

    Also what a number inflation does on retiree’s income.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Antibiotics are in fact killing your mitochondria, so I can see your point on that.

  • BobbyLow

    GG don’t forget in order to have real inflation you need to have incomes increasing at the same rate. Without this all you have is misery.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Again…HY remains strong.

  • Cyd

    The Great Depression was deflation
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {GG does backflips}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and you long Silver? he he.

  • mSquare

    What continues to surprise me is that with threats of of trade wars and tariffs, likes of WMT and DG continue to make new highs. Does anyone seriously think if a lot of what they sell got costlier by 10-20% they would continue on this path! Or even worse a small country such as Vietnam could ‘fill-the-gap’ and right away?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    correct’O mundo.

    Arizona now has some high minimum wages. It’s a start.
    now the fast food joints are getting expensive.

  • Cyd
  • ridingwaves

    appliance prices already came back from post tariff prices to same as before…..buy now or be priced out of freezers forever………::)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    by lowering rates to keep the economy going they have actually perpetuated deflation; by trying to get rid of the economic cycles – companies that should probably have gone bust are able to carry on – so competition increases – well run companies have to compete with not so well run companies producing the same stuff..and so on – vicious circle. Banks and insurance companies should never have been bailed out..
    Capitalism is more capitalist socialist…
    Look at Japan – lower interest rates have not stoked inflation

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you are definitely NOT Julie. LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think that’ why my Grandmother in the 70’s was loading up on 16 & 18% CD’s.
    edit: sh!t was getting worthless by the month, and Gold, well…you know.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    and lower rates screws pensions – so they have less income – less spending – need to carry on working more – drives wages down – in the UK the grey brigade man the tills in supermercados ! they take the jobs that used to be for school kids – Saturday jobs etc..

  • ridingwaves

    corpocracy republic….
    the problem is the fed see’s savers as the enemy….
    12 regional fed banks to support swaps, credit lines, accounts, business interaction would have held the public together, the zombie banks holding CDO and SIV’s would be poof…..a better place it would be me thinks…

  • BobbyLow

    There is absolutely no political discouse that can help me as a trader.
    There are political blogs for you to go to if that’s what you want to do Mark. I for one do not want to argue politics here. All I want to do is make money with my trading. I also don’t want my brain cluttered with political discourse while I’m trading. I’ve heard from a number of members of ES that say they do not want to discuss politics here as well. So that’s it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I really hate the built-cheap high pressure systems. I’m a low pressure type.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Get ready to short the small caps https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92d6b8a53c3ba25b66ce30888be254b409bbb55fb70129421ffb7ab3cbde7a02.png @ resistance – lower cloud and 61.8% retracement overbought
    Cyd.

  • mSquare

    A double top or b/o to new highs – easy to decide…
    https://finviz.com/publish/061919/HYGc1dl1536.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sure, I see the red cloud. but RSI is nearer to 60. come on!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you can’t control slaves if they have financial power.

  • BobbyLow

    What you said makes complete sense but I think we have to keep in mind that the market does not act logically. I’m no expert but over the past 20 years that I’ve observed the markets, I’ve noticed that that the markets always over does everything. It buys until there are no more buyers and shorts left to cover. Then it sells until there are no more buy the dippers and there are no more sellers. Logic has nothing to do with this phenomena because if it did builders and real estate would not have continued to go up in 2007 and a good part of 2008 when anyone with an IQ above 60 could figure out that real estate was going to go bust.

  • Cyd

    20 – 60 is what we want since it went to 30 on the previous decline..Come on ! !
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a planet completely hooked on debt. Anyone willing to buy it really deserves full-bultard Jubilee.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://www.liveabout.com/thmb/-DBJNygr1OtFUC9wWIc0h5A7hNM=/768×0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/largemouth-bass-in-water-522087306-5ad6a0aac0647100386bb889.jpg

  • Cyd

    Liking my WFC short failing at the 55 ema and dumpin the 21 ema printing a dark cloud cover RSI below 50 Those expanding triangles . Increasing selling volume the final 3 hours.Love it

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The S&P is up today, but don’t forget, it’s priced in dollars.
    which is nearly half a percent red today.
    no free ride ladies and gents.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    How about K ? Special K’s brand not on menu Good bye Kellog

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I couldn’t find my fine chart. But yes, she’s dropping weight!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    the problem is earnings are still strong even with all the different news points..
    this keeps happening, market will be hard pressed to go down
    Oracle Q4 EPS $1.07 vs 79c year ago

  • evilasevildoes

    I had USo to 11.36 on 1 minute pnf

  • evilasevildoes

    check out weekly spx
    point and figure

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “so let’s cut rates”.
    I’m detecting a bifurcated situation.

  • Cyd

    CAT setting up to short @ Holy Grail 89 ema – 50% retracement – mid channel – overbought – volume lower today then yesterday – topping tails on yesterday and today’s candles. Made to order
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6347a520c77524ea567108f9f4c78050f848bf907c5ab91270971ee7160b723d.png

  • Cyd

    SPX 2935.53 is a Level 2
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Rally SPX started at the March low and 233 ema. Running on fumes A bearish close below support – 5 ema and lower trend line put a fork in it

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bff2842770b7312d5f628b0aad658bfaa5d0f079a337f03e5ad25f9b069a6de2.png

  • Ronebadger

    Mine was 16.5% in 1982

  • Cyd
  • Ian Naugler

    All it takes is 1, hold for 10 years no matter what

  • BKXtoZERO

    I know that I am always the last bear….very lonely at tops. Of course trying to catch them is not smart….but saying that some of my biggest hits are when everyone is bullish and VIX has been scraping lows.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Fumes can ignite into conflagration….watch out for desperation for yield at any cost…friggin insane.

  • Cyd

    $VIX inverted to track SPX Now @ upper bollinger band and approx 10% above it’s 10 ema

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3471fbfb360948150e747180b2dbe050a064ba9d8eaefa3d1efd8b08f54824d0.png

  • Cyd

    $TNX Today’s action and lowering of 10 year yields detrimental to banks The play is continued shorting of banks on dead cat bounces https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80ae4eac2b63aba4a8028a7d92961a411a0757d2052b180ea6859c4e704a99c0.png

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    fumes!?…what could possibly go WRONG!?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f4lPzxSm5A

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    let’s quantify that, customize it, put a small black dress and earrings on it.
    [Weekly]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11520131498

    “will quant for food” – QuantGerb

  • Ronebadger

    I’m the “first” bear usually

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    **High Yield Alert**

    I’m seeing a 24 week cycle about to top out.
    just say’in.

    -GG https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f9cd757c438824dd7315b473f1afecd90ef1049940d2e2317afeb36727e7351.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    He needs some TVIX

  • ridingwaves

    Holy Gold, run to the hills, 1500 in lens now…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    TVIX, the nitromethane of the funny stock world.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    $1423 by my ratio calculations. Assuming fixed dollar at this level.

  • ridingwaves

    daily PNF might post triple top breakout tomorrow, double top on the June 5th, target today is 1500

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    You have not seen this chart yet GLD about to breakout above monthly cloud. Oh there is more See the monthly consolidation 130 – 107 = 23 … 23 + 130 = 153 Very close yo $GOLD objective 1500 First GLD must breakout above monthly cloud
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/beb9b86131820a3ac543e212f6eaf9a4613651f693b975472f7deacc925534e3.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    get with the program. they don’t call me ‘butterscotch Gerb’.

  • Cyd

    What’s the saying “Christmas in July” The longer the consolidation the bigger the breakout. Fasten seat belts
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    The tanker war with Iran? just a cover. Gold *is* where it’s at.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    People very seldom look at the monthlies but we do lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you take the right row, I’ll take the Left.

  • Cyd

    Remember Kelly’s Heros with Clint Eastwood It’s ours “Baby” lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Are you kidding me! watched it fondly with my Dad.
    my first introduction to war & GOLD.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Csv1wXOr5tY

  • Cyd

    I hope your dad is still alive. Julie’s and my parents both still alive and healthy. Hope yours are too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    He passed 3 years ago. A memory like this becomes more (priceless) than gold to me.
    πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    Mr G https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7fc4bc09d1817cd5100e37965459b1126d134322a3781a6600d34bbcb9598ee6.png WFC monthly chart below cloud and little bounces contained at lower cloud boundary.43.55 is October 2016 low which is initial target But monthly RSI at 41 so can go lower to 30 Initial price objective is 43.53 on short MACD below center line and Stochs unable to get an upward push Monthly conversion line below baseline. Technically this is very poor There is a developing positive divergence RSI

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Also you can see on the monthly a bearish H&S pattern which did execute Always look at the monthlies

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that low in Oct 2016. if I remember correctly. monthly lows do not give up so easily. correct?.. it will hold/be tested.

  • Cyd

    Yes GG Remember Warren is a major stockholder WFC and I am sure the Omaha Oracle is accumulating. Again emulating Uncle Warren Cyd and Jewels be swinging on his coat tails
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    so we are about 5 weeks passed the dividend date.
    I can’t imagine a earnings warning for an easy 2 months out.
    you think the air is out of the balloon? too much risk to short now?

  • Cyd

    The PNF chart bearish objective is 32 If it breaks below 43 on the weekly chart bearish weekly candle yes One thing let me compute the price objective for the bearish H&S
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3a1d86dc0fc3809b0c084cb334521c781d082fb0cb29c285cdd696e03726981.png

  • Cyd

    Yes There could still be a lower low below 43 The price target for the H&S is approx 34 close to the PNF 32
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    well, how about my 38?
    Julie would like that.
    πŸ˜‰
    while you were computing.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/334728089c7cd094ffb72111d1fb0ef131a31e465fbee5bae207e79dd584f689.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    given the timeframe of these charts. 38 is immediate, over time 32 would not be impossible.

  • Cyd

    Julie is a 35 and I am a 34. Got me by an inch lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’ll be the judge of that.
    send me the pajama PICS.

  • Cyd

    Futes are up Level 2’s Bookmakers have oil up tomorrow

    2947.02
    2942.63
    2935.53
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you had to go and say that. now I need to fire up my TOS platform.
    standby..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    do you have any gold positions?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    looking at the /CL base of 52-53, now at 54.69
    56 wouldn’t be that hard.

  • Cyd

    SLV on the pullback to 13.70 which I posted as a target on pullback with 14.30 as initial target on bounce. No Gold yet
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    to each their own. SLV is suppose to run harder when it does.

  • Cyd

    USO Lets watch @ 11.52 which is gap – mid bolinger band 20 sma – 38.2% retracement and upper channel I still think USO going down to 9.50 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9394142965ad99396a912ff639935b9d6312b39ff99395951638c7919f0b7078.png

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Yes it has larger % moves Must be careful as it is a widow maker like natty gas
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    look at your full sto. highs have a trendline, about to be broken.

    someone is buy USO, perhaps inflation play.
    one last kiss goodbye? sure.
    two last kiss goodbye’s? NOPE.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9adae2f633327db9a57ac4cde5f158c93fc0c799274df1a355102015abd3477b.png
    Long OIL IMHO.

    CVX is dying to make new highs also.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    gold up, silver up, oil up, miners up. WTH.

    checking copper.
    Yep. possible.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41936603801

  • Cyd

    This is why the bounce USO @ 10.50 The weekly 21,2 bollinger band The 34,2.1 is 9.50 which is target of weekly USO chart posted this a.m 13,8,5 stochs not oversold yet @ 20
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80d9fd3406efed3c65d191db5869a67be0c53c44117fd150e45b87eed6025e8c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    another thing. look at that volume.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    HWB, or a pennant pattern.

  • Cyd

    11.50 – 12 If a reversal we short it
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    higher. there’s a gap up to 11.72

  • Cyd

    I know but daily chart it looks corrective with an ABC Have not looked @ COT commercial net short positions Will look now

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    blah! that’s Julie talking.
    Satan Julie get behind me

  • Cyd

    No We both look @ COT Stand aside don’t get in our way lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Orthrus. Mythological beast.

  • Cyd

    Two heads better than one Standing on 3 legs is best of all Here is the pajama picture you want lol
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57389c29637c709d53d727c19fb04520acf32c43a024510c852b63ccc965eff2.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    The filter is all wrong.
    =P

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Gold hasn’t been this pricey since March 2014.

    oh yes. I will sleep good tonight.
    L8ter.

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    After 10 pm Good night and see you tomorrow
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well I missed it…. dabbling with NUGT near the lows and was just expecting a totally different forecast on pretty much everything. Hard to believe the FED caved this way. I didn’t get hurt (which is great) but I didn’t get traction anywhere.

  • Cyd

    BK Look for a reversal SLV @ 14.30 then short it back to 13.75 – 13.80
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    It could go to 14.70 on this leg up
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    SLV could go to 15.50 and resistance 16.35 and 38.2% retracement AND even 17 resistance which is 61.8% retracement
    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • Scott_CA
  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t want to be short things that I fundamentally believe in and think I could be ripped by…. insult to injury. I would rather buy the dip.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… looks bullish as heck to me

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Anyone watching /NG? It’s at low levels I havent seen in a few years.

  • evilasevildoes

    slacken ipo 1 pm they will goose spx

  • zzezzezz

    ugh… pain…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Long opinions and short the rip? πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    AU and GOLD look like they could see $4-5 moves north on gold breakout..m
    miners and a new ATH…

  • ridingwaves

    i did read article over weekend, pretty well thought out and lots of detail on how NG could have another super spike this fall…..similar to spike this year

  • Cyd

    Out of SLV long reaching 14.30 target. Cashed out WFC short this a.m 60 min oversold bounce off lower trend line
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e163276837fba1636cf9eec1c70826c7d853c79c3d16ab1ffee0b9de1c663180.png

  • zzezzezz

    Are you still long /ES sir?

  • Cyd

    TLT breaking out Bonds versus equities My money on bonds going to win this battle royal
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPY’s lagging TLT.
    but I’d be a little worried about SPY. (HYG gap’ped up)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55391420107

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    well –
    are we in situation 1 (oval)?
    or situation 2 (rectangle)?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d56efa2b9834aab5b6e130e740da3f48fde1b3cf7bd5746e284c8873ddb11f96.png
    (holy grail envelopes)

  • Ronebadger

    Yes

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You sleep with Schrodinger’s cat.
    =P

  • Cyd

    Checkout the run up in bonds since December. Bonds saying horseshit equity bulls going to get slayed big time.It’s coming

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79a1548b595b89b640a9c77dcc46e03496794d2de4716ed67ee2ded9c0eb4032.png

  • Cyd

    Oval
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    USO reaching target zone 11.52 – 12 with discussion last night
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    Oil and Defense Stocks Jump After Iran Shoots Down a U.S. Drone
    June 20, 2019 at 11:07 a.m. ET

    inflation accelerant added….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’re late. report for duty.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    there *are* no second last kisses goodbye. (Jedi Handwave).
    LOL

    edit: wait for 11.70

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HWB!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX. this is good stuff. I debate whether to post it.
    66.6
    πŸ™‚
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e860f3eaac0b5c590468f29565b4eaefafc0e00bc541aaa7a7ff06b7b53ea87b.png

  • Cyd

    There will be a last kiss goodbye to NAU Lumberjacks when they play the MSU Bobcats this fall in Bozeman. We go to games
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    We?

  • Cyd

    Excellent chart Thank you. If you notice 5 waves down since April which is impulsive

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    huh?
    I see a large April/May – ‘A’ down.
    we are in Jun – ‘B’ up.

  • Cyd

    Clarification 5 waves down from April to 1st week of June You are correct
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Wow SPX The gap up sold into.Rally could be history. Bonds going to win as usual

    Cyd

  • zzezzezz

    Agreed, but I really don’t like the “controlled selling” since the open. Very suspicious. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick rocket higher (I hope not)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    possible Oval scenario.
    need that Zero to watch the vwap.

  • Cyd

    Oval as I answered your question earlier https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c8375b326fe5a5c259afe9b5767a3b12f91d1acbefc29e2e32111cc1e01ba417.png Banks saying horseshit too So go the Banks so goes SPX Re shorting WFC unable to break above 45.80
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    careful, bears see the waterfall. bulls have a lows trend-line.

  • Cyd

    There could be a trading range BKX between 102 – 92 Breaks below 92 game changer
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    SPX could be very lonely at the top if an island reversal tomorrow. The “Bull Trap”
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, play it like last December. ema5. let the tape decide.

  • Cyd

    Lonely are the brave .. Buy now bulls while the gettin still good …. Sure it’s a breakout … A false breakout ? Lonely are the brave
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 19.13

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    I took profits this a.m SLV reaching initial 14.30 target SLV very volatile

    Cyd

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not for long πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks, back in UGAZ 13.51, I was in but sold it to make room for other things

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Carnival,
    what a dirty deal. price was just itching to go higher, Aaaaaand.
    surprise. (punch to the face)
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CCL

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw something that said russia/china pipeline could cause a glut of NG….never sure what to think but chart looks extreme right here so technically buying

  • Cyd

    WFC (short) stop 45.76 on closing basis
    Cyd

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That doesn’t make sense. If you do believe that enough participants pay attention to it, then you in fact are putting credence in it.

  • Cyd

    Draw a horizontal trend line from April at 50 A descending triangle
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Be careful https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b813bfe936b6d58fcb356792abfb532a48aa4e1e5776fee3be34ba5dac462bcf.png gold bugs A pullback could occur. If so it’s a repurchase
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    A beautiful ascending triangle on the weekly chart Gold and Silver bullish above their respective weekly 65 ema’s
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Cyd

    VIX inverted to track SPX Easier to follow. Upper bollinger band and 10% above it’s 10 ema
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c7b7f101c8621bf4617075b211ab10c00be0c7a092650575d66da42beea932a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    he he – BK should pay you good money for this one.

  • zzezzezz

    let’s see a close above 17 today!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just tilt my monitor.

  • Cyd

    VIX just a little more up . Closing above 50 and 80 sma’s game over for bulls Going above it’s 160 sma gonna get ugly
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af9cf81646cc2cd7d423a8c78a2d83ff6ff7438c2061b3ebaa8cd6e710526f54.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Thursdays are big movers, Fridays are snoozers”

  • Mark Shinnick

    HY holding well into new 2019 highs.

  • Cyd

    Friday is end of quarterly option expiration Should be a lot of volume tomorrow
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Quad witching! you spoiled my opening line tomorrow.
    dang you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s the Solstice. plain and simple.

  • Ronebadger

    Would we consider today’s/above candle…engulfing yesterday’s?

  • BKXtoZERO

    annoyingly so…………..

  • Cyd

    Julie called We are going to place an order for you at one of these bakeries under GG for a raspberry cheesecake. Which bakery is easiest for you ?
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f278247677061400f3c38eac99dc5d9a70b6e754c40fe8b7a33812ec47c597a.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    The “crowded” trade may be everyone looking for ATH..

  • Cyd

    Yes
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh gaawd. call it off. If Mrs. Gerb found out. I’d be drawn & quartered.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    why yes. Yes, I do have beautiful women in Montana sending me food.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    WFC Want a bearish dump beneath the lower trend line of expanding triangle on hourly chart. When it occurs will pound it hard
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/654a7b6349cbbd9e47835dcc45a2eaff99ac7c8a16b039d617c9e1385b3d4459.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    You are burning mental capital.

  • Ronebadger

    Will there be enough for the rest of the class…?

  • ridingwaves

    RE more so, close to tipping point…
    Mom-and-pop landlords push investor share of home purchases to 19-year high

  • Cyd

    I hope that you are feeling better. You said you were battling pneumonia with antibiotics.

    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    well it is the very edge of the scenario that I was playing for so to that extent yes. Worse is being way early and hoping. That is mental ward stuff. I am in control, set up is here and now so it is my year. This works or I find something else to do.

  • Cyd

    The rule of 7’s determining price targets Julie’s EXAS today hit on the nose. 118 was the 7/4 and pulling back
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/caf32e08ac37389c0f0c5b634df6042d8cd70d5bef0e03fc75f1c18d4ae20cf5.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I did some extensive searching for that. GOOG kept throwing back 72. “no google, I did not ask for 72

  • Cyd

    Tonight I will explain The rule of 72 is for compounding interest

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GOOG is like a 4 year old. The search reply is either easy, or impossible.

  • Cyd

    GOOG does not work in AZ Everyone fried lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, it’s those dam routers in Oregon. full of moss.

  • BKXtoZERO

    With 15 degrees of monitor tilt I am up on tvix.

  • Cyd

    WFC I knew that lower trend line on hourly chart presented earlier would be tough Going to hold short WFC may recapture it’s 21 ema RSI below 50 – moving averages in bearish alignment – MACD below center line and STOCHS 13,8,5 turning down at 60 which is bearish Patience is key as this is the weakest bank
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7159fd6524f6029bba68f102ef4ce3be3c02982899ddcfd824809ddc930ae30a.png

  • Scott_CA

    Query……..I know about Rule#2, “ignore the news”, but what’s slapping Iran back for taking down a US drone gonna do for/to the markets? Defense infrastructure up a bit, anything else? Lottery on when? (Checking moon phases….)

    5 m VIX settling <15…….VIX nap time

  • Cyd

    Confirming volume today in both GLD and SLV
    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Possible pullback to 127 meeting support – 55 ema and a lower trend line Negative divergences suggest a pullback to the 55 ema but will watch the 21 ema and a trend line

    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick

    idra dropped out of my signalling yesterday.

  • Cyd

    Nice taking the day off from work
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    black gold and gold
    CL interesting MA confluence area, similar start (green arrows) of last move up, could make similar move to 75 if it gets 66-7 but not linger as long before crossing gold line..

    the green line 100 is where rubber meets road for bulls, above it and to the moon….or drone….my distorted view or lens though…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2306939533fd0f28b970e35e24834f6c8593f80d2359ed479793e4d0eb45b515.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    in your pajamas eh?

  • Cyd

    Have tomorrow off too Yes PJ’s until mail man comes lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    PM’s – materials – energy could be a boost if breaks mid envelope decisively
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Miners.
    I’ve got to admit. I had to dust off my miner chart.
    after being a bag holder for untold quarters. I’m in the green.
    sell? F’NO. someone’s gonna pay for my patience.
    Muwahahaha!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d476d116dbc096fb665229bb42d056c512d7fb496cc74ef58eb92d18ac8734e4.png
    I will add Monday if no shenanigans occur.

  • Cyd

    GDX or NUGT ?
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    DRV looks more like 20*
    you sure your not secretly Banks Tazero, the famous 3x guy from Seattle, the other like mission impossible series…

    just messing with ya, you and the family have a good fourth of July up there….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GDX. bag holders get dividends.
    πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    Haven’t checked $BPGDM
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    mine is in Renko mode, pointing uphill. 56.

  • Cyd

    Use Renko also ATR setting 0.90 Also daily chart 8 ema either works great

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what did Mole say?
    keep it simple.

  • Cyd

    $BPGDM RSI (14) falls below 10 really bullish
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am doing ok. My position sizing on tvix is modest and daily sized here in 19 to 20 area. I am still massaging an entry in DRV but larger. My long commodities dwarfs both of these so I am kind of hedged (I hope) he he he. Bought UGAZ again today so I am not the old BK….all on red.

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose one can always buy lottery tickets. I’ve rarely done well with them. I also stopped trying to get the first part of any run a long time ago because whenever I thought if this event happens then x will happen, it backfired way too many times for me. OTOH, price has always been correct no matter how it got there so I try to follow it instead. For me it’s not so much what price is supposed to do but more of what is price doing. JMHO

  • Cyd

    Bobby The fattest mouse grabs the piece of cheese in the middle
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I am better with the anti’s…thanks. But, there’s still a bunch of crap I have to get out of my system (Kinda like the stock market…)

  • Cyd

    Well the bulls today pulled a rabbit out of their ass SPX. Reason TLT and bonds pulling back Tomorrow going to be very interesting Monday could be real barnstormer either way
    Cyd

  • HD

    2961 is a fibonacci pivot. OPEX on deck

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh. Time Check.

    SPX or TLT is fun to argue over.
    why are things moving up? dollars unwanted.
    just don’t forget that dollar. it’s on the MOVE.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70862501340

  • ridingwaves

    fingers crossed on small pback on crude, than I’m in…buy when price crosses gold, sell when goes below it worked out well, price as BL says ultimate winner,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mole’s been AWOL today.

    I expect a full battle plan soon.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJNk7DcFIkk
    -RommelGerb

  • BKXtoZERO

    Disclosure. Today’s bias is me. Optimism bias. Anyway holding relatively small tvix here 19 to 20 area. My largest position is long the CRB from last weeks lows in the other larger portion of 401K. Trading account bought UGAZ today. I have more UGAZ than tvix so long commodities is most of my account. Tvix and DRV long at 5.9 to 6.1 area are smaller speculative plays. I think the reason I play them is so I can post Monty python pictures when they work. I am not the same BKX to zero who was all on red.

  • BobbyLow

    Totally agree Cyd

  • Cyd

    Strong correlation with greenback and treasury 10 year yield minus the German bond 10 year yield
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41cd2d87ca4a15b13227d39d2ce1cbf9cba5552a3970a3a78a96c28a899ef3fc.pn

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good work Major.

  • Cyd

    You too GG Both Julie and I think very highly of you – Chieftan and everyone else here
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    $CRB has been stuck in a trading range the last 3 1/2 years. BK just play IMO the weekly chart trading range I know you will kill it

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/578b7577cadc92c2d1333f10e1a3128704ee99f1910bdaaea223a3833ced51ed.png

  • Cyd

    SPX nice bullish candle this week follow thru from previous week Observe the advance from the weekly 233 ema kicking off the rally from end of December. The present rally now commencing off the weekly 55 ema
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ecb79bde8a31b193faf6f66bb6b02baa8682319e82f68c4277392cb42b192ac.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Just wrapped things up after closing 4 Day Trades of the Dow Futures today when I should have had 3. Went long on rising prices before the NYSE Open. Sold just after the open for a small loss then reversed and went short and closed for a small gain. In the meantime, I totally missed a Bullish Engulfing candle that would have really made my day. I then made a mistake of going short again for a loss. Soon after price began buying momentum again and I held my nose, went long again and carried this position until just before 4PM. This last trade was the best one of the day and I wound up with a net gain but could have done a lot better.

    The bottom line is that even after all my back testing and work put into my trading plan, there is still work to do getting used to dealing with live price action on my 5 Minute Chart. I’m making good progress but man, but I can’t help but think if this shit was easy “even a caveman could do it”. LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I had a wild day once back in 2009.
    three round trip trades using heavy option positions.
    at the end, excellent trades, and calm fire under pressure.
    but when I looked at my profits?

    WASN’T Worth it! !@#$@$
    πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NICE CLOSE!!

  • Cyd

    Bobby with the present volatility the 5 minute chart very difficult to trade

    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    No pressure GG. I’m not betting the deed to the ranch here. I actually like doing what I’m doing. I like the control that I have. Because of all of my testing, I know what kind of and apx. percentage of losses to expect so there’s no surprises. The most difficult part is of course is actual execution and that’s my challenge right now which I see some improvement in everyday.

  • evilasevildoes

    i trade them with a few helpers best is volatility squeeze https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9bc863309e9e8f6f619f2c3db45be899114dad6734b717278e27747df5673a12.jpg by Larry Gains

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good point!
    I’ve always thought about a system, that checks IV before going down to 5min.

  • Cyd

    Strong buying volume final hour in Banks. Watching WFC closely
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Nope. I found it to be the best one for me. It also depends how the 5 Minute is spread out. Once again this is where back testing comes in. I’ve tested it under very easy trading and very difficult trading and once again there is no surprises. I was using 3 Hour on oil and that can be a real Pain when you get drifting prices with multiple hills and valleys while waiting for a trend. So basically as the old saying goes “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    I take stops off the first 30 minutes
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Another thing that’s important is what type of volatility. If you have multiple long wick candles at both ends then I don’t trade them. OTOH, if you get days with one day having a nice steady rise and the next day a nice steady downfall, this is a day traders dream scenario like it was back in May.

  • Cyd

    With high volatility I find it easier to trade using the 15 and 30 minute charts if I day trade. Even the hourly
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    I use ATR which is a derivitve of volatility and move my stop when ATR allows me to do so.

  • evilasevildoes

    bank test manana

  • Cyd

    The breakout XLV health care (defensive sector) could be challenging with the lack of volume and black candle print indicating a gap up sold into and closing below it’s open Going to need more volume
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12b63b69b91709c3dac77bba143e629dab231a4e62d543f6622c95f601d25b65.png

  • Cyd

    Seasonality June favors XLV

    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    You take them off for him? Talk about fringe benefits……..

  • Scott_CA

    VIX volatility….Over the last 3 weeks the Hi/Lo intraday volatility has only been about 7%, on the low side over the last year. Year-long average ~12%, ~7.5% SD. It was in the low 20%s late Dec, and as high as 48% during the October downturn. Those levels persisted, +/-, for a week each time. From Cyd’s inverted VIX post earlier, it’s easy to see the relationship between VIX and SPX. Although imperfect, and not a long-term leading indicator (48% change/day!), VIX is definitely something to keep an eye on. Yearly average ~16.5, ~4.5% SD. Almost every time it goes over 20, things get interesting.

  • Cyd

    SPX This is no bull market In the last year and a half SPX has gone no where It’s gone up a whopping 90 pts.
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/767f8dbd69a036a23209b7adb4f50530de1b9aea89bf37673e3c444271a0b7bc.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    If you were buy and hold SPY since 1st part of 2018 you haven’t gained a thing GG Better off buying baseball cards lol
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Julie is right GG $COTTON @ 68 looks like a line in the sand going back 5 years
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/02c15e7e223dc78b588a3f9dc9037356262190f996b84a97a59c6cfe7479bb71.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    always good to look LEFT. beyond 3 years if need be.

    at this point, there is a lot of bagholders at higher prices. forecast: cloudy, chance of showers.

  • Cyd

    That is a 5 year chart … Have you had an after dinner drink or two ? lol
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you rarely post over 1 years charts. sometimes 2 or 3 years.

  • Cyd

    Isn’t China the home of the silk worm ? Silk not cotton sheets
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Yep. that’s why I’m fixing up my home. A roof over your head is better than digits in a shaky bank IMHO.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “nearly 300 million people involved in its production”
    that’s a lot of cotton.

  • Cyd

    That’s a lot of cotton pickers. We can make a fortune selling back braces in China. Knee pads too

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    target for gold (ratio wise) has increased from 1423 to 1433.

  • Cyd

    We do the raff regression on soybean GG I think we can trade it fairly well. I see that Mole likes trading soybean
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/576aba8d51f15169ef9e95dacd1281bb51f8f03d505d40cac75b0aec32a9dc98.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Frankly, with the strange weather this year & flooding. there’s probably a fortune to be made. I have no experience in that area.

  • Cyd

    Many of the crops affected by the weather flooding I read that when they are able to plant they can grow very quickly and catch up at harvest All is not lost by a longshot
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    the raff is nice, but I’ll stick with envelopes.

    240 is a massive trend. check it out

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOYB&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58155603241

  • Cyd

    I just brought up the weekly That is an easier play than the daily Julie wants to dip into commodities but the ETF’s are thinly traded

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    That’s what Mole told us. or someone around here.

    hey, HYG is not just up today. it’s outside the envelope of a decade.
    thoughts?

    I’m wondering if a stovepipe reversal is about to happen??

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=W&st=2007-06-04&id=p56207864305

  • Cyd

    Right now soybean would be a sell on the weekly Overbought STOCHS and RSI @ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/876d855e99e0e0aaa4365549395cafa483f871805a61a5b808653640a950dfdf.png 50 in a downtrend
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Weekly even better with your envelopes
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Yes A reversal is in the cards.There is something that Jewels and I are doing GG Her husband told us to follow up on bond ratings on stocks.Unreal the downgrades by Fitch and Moody. You short the stocks on bounces that have been downgraded. Nice
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    is there a fitch and moodie location to find this info?

    I want to get in on specialK & INTC. LOL.

  • Cyd

    What we do is google the stock bond rating I am sure there is a Fitch or Moody site. We just started doing it Prescience Capital Management They are stock sleuths and share info Free website and newsletter We like them
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Moody’s has a website, with all the corporate bond stuff.

    ugh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    just had a crazy idea.
    short AMZN at 2000. 50% hair cut *is* possible.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c01cbaee4fe7fa5056c0e3be96c2c5cb95e65311bc0428ec4bf3d5e4889c97ec.png

  • ridingwaves

    1620…..

  • Cyd

    Grizz told us to learn the short side of the market in addition to the long. We have been studying the short side very diligently What we do for possible short candidates too is look up Funds that short. Leuthold Weeden has a short fund called the Grizzly Bear Fund. Every quarter they must disclose their holdings Voila Let their analysts do the fundamentals Stock symbol GRZZX

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I like your optimistic numbers.

    you can see from this chart. the fan breakout is under way.
    1420 is the envelope ceiling.

    otherwise, Bully

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/619ca43bffc39e0913372bb03f7c128f22dfa42253a9dee28f905a040a38ee64.png

  • Cyd

    RW and I have the same possible target GG The ascending triangle on the weekly has a target of 1650
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    WTF is an ascending triangle?

  • ridingwaves

    buy any breakout retest…..its heading much higher…..the fed lost, Powell put is in…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    any pullback, i’m grabbing UGLD.
    edit: see 2010 on the far far left.

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    welll, if Julie wasn’t fucking with wedges so much. tee hee.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    my daughter is facing college soon.
    this better work.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRqiFPpw2fY
    Keep Hope Alive

  • ridingwaves

    I’m going to go kind of large on any retest, triple top breakout today paints the 1620 number, problem they might keep it running while many hope for pullback, Mole mentioned commodities run…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I want to trade like this guys drums.
    LOL.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRrSmLwAhz4

  • HD

    lock in 10 HanDles!!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    everything is biblical….. every move…. straight up or straight down.

  • https://www.ziffytravels.com Ziffy travels
  • Scott_CA

    While true for most years, this year, for some farmers, time is running out…..wettest spring in100+ years?? Iowa farms are about 2 weeks behind according to USDA crop reporting, Ohio much, much worse.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ohio-farmland-underwater-apos-big-090013370.html