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Tender Loving Setup Care

Tender Loving Setup Care

by The MoleJuly 30, 2012

Some of last week’s setups are in need of some TLC and despite the rather annoying tape there are handful of new developments worth sharing. As I only see a summer skeleton crew I decided to make this a freebie – so leeches everywhere rejoice! 😉

Let’s start with currencies – the AUD/JPY is painting an inside day + NR4 combo. I would prefer seeing a continuation upward after last week’s NLBL breach, however if we drop through today’s lows tomorrow then I may take a few positions off the table. A drop through that NLBL would of course put us back into shorts.

Another inside day + NR4 combo over on the CAD/JPY – you know the rules. If not then please consult the cheat sheet which is available from the menu bar.

EUR/JPY may have gotten you long on Friday but you should have closed or reverted into a short by the bell as we remained below that NLBL. And that Net-Line will remain to be our long/short separator until Wednesday.

EUR/USD is making our life difficult today – today’s drop represents a reversal into short positions, assuming of course we don’t push back above by the close.

Ole’ bucky meanwhile is painting a trifecta – an inside day + NR4 + a NLSL retest. It trades like a regular ID setup but I would love love love to see a push higher here, which would also represent a NLSL reversal. Could really shake things up. But let’s not have wishful thinking get in the way of a good setup – we’ll take this bugger either way.

Cable is also painting an inside day + NR4 combo today. Same rules – you know what to do.

USD/CHF is mirroring the EUR/USD and we are now long, again assuming we don’t drop below 0.9777 by the close of the session.

On to commodities – crude has me back in cash until it picks a direction.

Gold lagging behind silver today – very interesting. Either way it’s also painting an inside day + NR4 combo – trade accordingly.

Natgas just breached a NLBL – which represents a long trigger. Of course after a long candle like this anything can happen, which is why the NLBL is our fork in the road for either playing continuation or a reversal.

Sugar looking pretty sweet as it just reverted its Thursday/Friday NLSL breach. If this holds it could grow some legs. But bear in mind that the NLSL expires tomorrow so unless we drop back below today we won’t get a short entry if she drops below. But our stop below that NLSL still remains in place no matter what.

Treasury futures – 10-year flavor: I would not take this inside day as the candle is clearly too long. BUT I would exit any short positions from last Friday if we push above today’s high of 134’175 tomorrow.

And then there’s that beautiful NLSL reversal on soybeans – you may recall that inside day setup which was followed by a little fake out attempt on Friday. I have recently started to take 2+ day breaches as long as any fake out attempts have been small (e.g. just a few ticks) – no stats on it yet but I think it’s technically permissible.

That wraps it up folks – keep it frosty and keep it clean. Managing positions through days like this are part of being a trader – nothing glorious and probably more work than it’s worth. But they are part of the game and it’s best to do like Data – turn off your emotions chip and simply follow the rules.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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