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The Big Face Off
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The Big Face Off

by The MoleApril 17, 2018

The bulls are getting more energized now with hopes that the worst for this year is now behind us. But the big face off is still looming ahead and if a major punch burning the shorts is to happen then it better happen now, this week:

As you may remember from previous posts, week #15 statistically is the most bullish week of the year – by far I may add. But wait there is more:

Weekly SKEW suggests that this upside bias is in fact NOT due to outliers as this week’s reading is near the zero mark.

Which is why the weekly % positive panel also shows us the highest reading of the year – a whopping 80%!

Now it’s Tuesday morning and we’ve got another four session to go until we close the books on this week. When I referred to the big face off in my intro then it was due to the support zone that’s been developing on the VIX over the past few months.

A drop to the 15 mark and perhaps a bit below is where the bears will be looking at a take down. Or we once again run out of buyers, whatever happens first ๐Ÿ˜‰

Either way I’ll be collecting 1R here from last week’s speculative entry as my trail has now been lifted to near 2670.

On the crypto side things have been looking a bit iffy yesterday but so far so good as BTC has returned to our entry range with hourly Bollingers now being massively pinched. A resolution here should be swift and forceful. Nothing to do until then.

Gold isn’t looking so stellar unfortunately as it appears that we’re in for more chop chop chop…

Silver fortunately seems to be the most bullish in the sector as it looked like we had lift off yesterday but then reverted to our entry zone. Nothing has changed here frankly and I would be taking this entry today had I not done so yesterday.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Yoda

    hehehe VXX slam down week

  • HD

    put the round number S on 2699

  • HD

    Nice trade Mole, great work on the stats too.

  • Darkthirty

    Looking for a few more pennies…………………

  • mSquare

    Shorted the peek above 2700 via some SPXU @ $10.35

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    High Up Trend Day possibility based on $TICK sample. I’d like to be short here as well but that is making me think twice.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX at 7.41 groundhog day for me. At least I bought USLV as something different. Let’s see if ES2705 gap fill is all there is.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    well the Market can really be a pirate, eh? The fear is gone.
    watch for RSI overhead resist.
    2777?….one step at a time mate.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4f3d1419d6b199df9e509963e48b4e78f488cb8411379f3cd899cc71cc1086e.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks Mr. Perfect Hearing! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    avoiding trouble and teasing wenches Captain!

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    As conflicted as always! Itching to short but long instead.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the post/mentioning the VIX……

  • Ronebadger

    He DOES listen in “HD”

  • HD

    stopped out, those MF’rs

  • BKXtoZERO

    if this little breakaway candle fails it will be the 4th little fake-away candle since February sell off started.When they have reversed it has been ugly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    notice the trend change.
    Everything up to January was a trend.
    Everything Feb on, a range bound Pirate camp.
    sideways is rarely thought about.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m Sooo getting Klipsch speakers.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nearing a interim long exit at short term objective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I just checked and it wasn’t Klipsch but AudioEngine A2 speakers I have in L.A. (somewhere in storage):

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00DQMJE7E/ref=dp_prsubs_1

    Those are completely kick ass and apparently still highly rated today. Which is surprising given all the advances over the past decade in affordable high quality sound systems.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    OK, closing long and attempting short.

  • Darkthirty

    Reads like the E wave throw over………But still a crapshoot til confirmation

  • Mark Shinnick

    Watch out…its a different landscape than the past 3 months.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a desk similar to this
    http://8libre.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/used-business-furniture-bush-computer-office-furniture-business-furniture-solutions-flowood.jpg

    Speakers will go in upper cabinet, and I will change the cabinet door to a mesh. Heard, not seen is my motto.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Based on….??

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    shorting is not allowed during earnings season, signed Master Yoda….

  • ridingwaves

    Nearly half of crypto traders refuse to pay taxes, survey finds

    that will not work out well…..best to leave for Costa Rica now if your planning on playing that game with the feds….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Follow the tape Trouzzer – easier direction.

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    Roger you on the 50% retrace.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “week #15 statistically is the most bullish week of the year โ€“ by far I may add.”

    To the Moon Alice..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0571d018948220733837c760089e9cb3f820e2d06e3e1c9e8be1cd314576bc52.png

  • HD

    It may take a Fabio pic for the market to sell off 1%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..very well
    Irwin Schiff, Fervent Opponent of Federal Income Taxes, Dies at 87

    not sure if this NYT link will work
    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/business/yourtaxes/irwin-schiff-fervent-opponent-of-federal-income-taxes-dies-at-87.html

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mary

    Hello fellow Molites.

    I hope everyone is banking some coin here. I have to hit and run.

    This is what I’m been involved in for the past week. My daughter’s friend was on this balcony

    If you know anyone with a big heart and/or social media presence, please send these links to them.

    Thank you all and God bless.

    https://www.gofundme.com/professional-arts-academy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy82AUEV-Yk

  • BKXtoZERO

    dang.

  • ridingwaves

    wow….the other guy is coming in with right ladder to use and no one helps him, then they lay the ladder where the people are going to fall, jump….full on panic below…

  • kudra

    failure to follow the tape has been my downfall. We all know “Don’t fight the Fed.” More apt is: “Don’t fight the tape.”

  • Julie

    Hi Mary Prayers being said. Heart goes out to all those involved. Will send a donation. Will be thinking of you
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shit…the confusion…ladders un-tended.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd46b40084a9570336b68bc3bd70e9ab919640b08a8d23352d3782b896a935d3.png

    have a plan. if it squeezes, you won’t have time to think.
    my two grams.

  • Darkthirty

    I use that phrase a lot!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s goes back a few years.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://evilspeculator.com/state-of-the-evil-lair-2/

  • Mary

    Thank you Julie. The kids have a big show to put on in 6 or 7 weeks. It will take a lot to accomplish this. Much like falling off of a bicycle and getting back on again, this is important to their development for them to perform in spite of the setback.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a few weeks, all will be back to ‘normal’.

    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34377455476

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exactly…back in the saddle ASAP.

  • randomuser6789

    Kudra, did you cash out your ancient, underwater TZA position?

  • kudra

    no. Time to do that was the February correction. I’m left with only hope that this market corrects. I got QID as well. double whammy. pure folly

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Fire Safety Minute for you traders.

    Have working smoke alarms under 10 yrs old.
    Have a working fire extinguisher(s) and now how to use it.
    Eliminate flammable clutter, and or store in fire resistant containers.
    Have an escape plan, preferably two.
    Have a fire fighter stop by, seriously, they don’t bite.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtMmymOxdjc
    -GG

  • randomuser6789

    So what will it take? Are you holding until they turn green? It is not going to happen. Those products decay, and the market may never correct to that extent. Ever. Or it might, but likely not. So what will it take for you to cash those out?

  • HD

    things to base a S on, HWB the entire pattern 2873/2533= 2703, Symmetry off the 2554 low 118/118 =2704, 2700 round number (would need close below), gap R 2712, 60min RSI OB.

    things to base a long on, we are rallying.

  • HD

    scary. Hope for quick recovery.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and the bears blew it.

  • HD

    so choppy, every day this month has a gap. I’m sidelined until I see some sellers. Can’t chase long here.

  • HD

    I have no bone in the bear or bull fight.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its all after the fact commentary anyway – all that matters being the now.
    One Now that’s so relevant is your point about the 50%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    alright Eckhart.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    That was one of the 60’s – 80’s popularizations I think did a lot of pushback good against the drug thing.

  • BobbyLow

    IMO, it’s going to take a “Black Swan” event to create enough Institutional Bears to bring this market down more than just a few minor corrections. And there aren’t enough individual traders to put more than a scratch into the armor of the bull market in equities.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    It’s another day in the hood and I’m still holding my nervous short in Crude and I’m still short Wheat. Speaking of wheat, it’s been a little squirrely today but still weak.

  • Julie

    EXAS Daily going up into the Cloud. Now the Cloud is narrow therefore little resistance. The weekly chart the daily cloud matches the weekly baseline (21). A pullback here is possible. If it goes higher the upper trend line on the daily chart matches the weekly upper cloud boundary. Now the advance from the April low looks impulsive. and now overbought Shown EXAS daily and weekly charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bae0e8db900ab443559c0887a371a32426d2a5ed8e7660026955634747c4c87e.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d01a14a6ee74828493bceb6dd5c00c985af65dee5a6a0ec3c5d722f47d7fd7a.png

  • HD

    Mole, I took the SI trade. Looking for $1.00

  • Julie

    EXAS weekly chart Observe the target i.e. the advance off the weekly lower cloud boundary which coincided with the daily 377 ema (not shown on daily chart)
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is the precise demonstration of the outgassing making for overwhelm. Excellent.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s completely changed my opinion of carpet. Nice to have on winter days. Not worth my Life. I’ll wear slippers on tile, here-on-out.

  • Julie

    SPX Going to show this chart again. Much skepticism but I have stated all along a Triangle from end of January is developing. Daily chart the upper triangle trend line matches the upper daily cloud boundary and the 61.8% retracement IMO Going to happen guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f6a9ec5404b731d914c1aa038bd84413c26f4dee5fe07a08815bf2d8e5aa632.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think it will. but I’ve got you beat with my 2777 forecast.
    =P

  • Julie

    Excellent GG BUT Watch carefully as I am because it could fail now i.e. going up into the gap ; 50% retracement and the lower cloud boundary
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Schrodingers cat. Since we’ve seen it, it will not do it.
    It will do what It can, to trick everyone, and take the majority of money. $$$

    but I think we’ve staked out some clear boundaries.

  • Julie

    GG we are on it Bro ! Good work GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..which reminds me, how’s the fibarc doing?

  • Julie
  • Darkthirty

    Carpet rarely burns

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh HO!!

  • Darkthirty

    I can’t either. Caught 2 shorts, last still running from 2706

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the triangle line may not hold, but alongside the arc, it’s going to give a fight. AND the RSI may be up around 69-70 by then.

    edit: IMHO, that’s a place to entry a short position, and then add if a surprise to the downside kicks off.

    edit edit: if not? 2777 awaits. outer Arc.

  • BKXtoZERO

    DOW blew past its down trend line already…

  • BKXtoZERO

    got to work to see myself stopped out of half (again).

  • mSquare

    If everyone expects ‘IT’ to do the unexpected, won’t it instead do the expected as least expect it?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Can’t do much charting at work. Unlike Jukie’s place that would be frowned upon

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “next thousand trades”..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bummer. the only thing worse, is you work in Ladies Shoes?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Let’s see….. I sell woman’s shoes, yet I hate to come home?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    SOME ladies wear skirts still!

  • Julie

    BKX to ZERO DOW watch carefully as it is near 50% retracement ; fib arc and narrow cloud. Ok the narrow cloud is weak resistance If it blows thru the 61.8% retracement which matches a horizontal resistance (not shown) and or the next upper fib arc GG’s chart below fan lines the upper fan line matches closely my DOW chart Shown DOW chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f8e4d9c7f32e831edbe0ed96816640418cdcc5df0413b7fc4d59d5741f2b837.png JULIE

  • Julie

    BKX to ZERO Are you short ?
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    long 0.5R TVIX from 7.4. just added 0.5R back at 7.08, I think this may be a fence post turtle candle. One of those that got up there and no one knows how and it shouldn’t be up there….. I have seen 4 candles in the past 2 months where everyone thought they were clear and they were fake outs. See how the day ends. Keeping half tight, may hold the other half

  • Julie

    Understood Excellent as you know why you made the trade. A trade is only wrong if you do not know why you made the trade. If wrong not wrong long Good job
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Julie, the OTHER option is b of C. 50% retrace will put the target at 22400. Don’t have any charts sexy enough to work out the retrace percent from the previous wave

  • Julie

    ABMD the chart shown previously for my momentum trade (example) is working
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO Yesterday I posted supports at 13.38 and 13.28 ( 13.28 being a stronger support ) and it must have a bearish close below it’s daily 5 ema. Not happening yet BUT A possible 3 drives to the top pattern could be playing out from mid February. I am watching carefully JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8a3095159f5867fef25f705ab7827d01d80a7368e48622f96d55cef8be122897.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t be a scaredy cat.
    as long as BPENER is climbing, the wind is at your back for USO.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPENER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82183113190

  • BKXtoZERO

    There is a TA guy I follow who uses cycles mixed with other basic TA who has a low in May. Shorter term cycle bottomed so I was expecting a rally, also expecting 2705 gap fill, perhaps 2750 so I have been taking pot shots along the way but this is where I may hold a position wide wider stops.

  • Julie

    Yes But 70 + is overbought
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Miners pushing local highs.

  • Julie

    Probably buy some M EOD if a bullish close above it’s 5 ema and 21 ema https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb8c23372a13327525258cdb4fca776c0e198f5a55a0ae729a162e277101224e.png approx. 28.93 Shown a chart from last night previous thread JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Could be a turning point for me too Julie and I might have to think about hedging my short.

  • Julie

    Mark I am watching GDX for a short. Overbought A bearish close below the lower upper channel trend line and below the upper cloud boundary (now support) will be a short.Todays unimpressive volume suspect JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e7d47f96231beb28a656cbe73995806935f289cbefaff48cf2a83661911e52f.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    High volume breakouts aren’t really statistically necessary to begin a decent move.

  • HD

    what a difference VIX 14 makes. zzzz. I had a feeling that was as good a market as we were going to have for some time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This happens at that 50%.

  • Julie

    True but its overbought with a negative CCI (20) divergence and at a strong resistance level with today’s poop volume
    JULIE

  • HD

    I’ll give it thru Wednesday. Spring bear is still open till 5/3. Mnts are calling.

  • HD

    BTC!

  • Julie

    HD An Arizona hunt ?
    JULIE

  • HD

    yes, black bear.

  • Julie

    Hunting in Montana always in the snow. My husband loves it ! I go with him
    JULIE

  • HD

    opposite, never in snow ha. Little HD has a turkey hunt coming up so I can scout and hopefully get lucky and see a bear and not get eaten ๐Ÿ™‚ I’ve had some close calls.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good eye, Kemosabe

  • Julie

    MT has a turkey hunt too. My husband uses a crossbow
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you are such a wet blanket.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now there’s some Diversity.

    Good guys vs. Bad.

    No women? ARgggh! I’m triggered!

  • Yoda

    You don’t want to be on the same side as Gartman, do you? ๐Ÿ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90e5e61868af9599b0464b31af82a336385922ac5b7f8e3723f00be96db52133.png

  • Darkthirty

    Played the game for 28 years professionally. A lot of fluff and BS is disseminated

  • Mary
  • Julie
  • Darkthirty

    I know a few bad women, can’t seem to find a good one, though

  • Yoda

    today is not breakout day, just a slow up grind. Large volume candle happened a week ago.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Here we have a miners entry area with at least a very tight intraday stop opportunity.

  • randomuser6789
  • BobbyLow

    I wish you didn’t tell me that.

    It’s a good thing I just hedged my position. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mary

    I’ve always wondered if he’s REALLY wrong or he just gets paid to SAY he’s positioned wrong.

  • BobbyLow

    As far as I know he’s mostly wrong. But every once in awhile he picks a winner and declares himself an expert. I think most of our participants here have a lot better record than he does.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gap closed.

  • Julie

    Mary and BL Give a monkey a cue stick and he is bound to make a ball sometime
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mercy.

    Update: the women who was partially sucked out of the Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 has died, according to the NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt, sending the stock of LUV sliding:

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie

    M I was going to buy a small position EOD. It appears that it will close above it’s 5 and 21 ema’s . No not today I do not like the possible close below it’s open and lack of volume today. It has breached a downtrend line but could also be a minor bear flag with another drop. Will monitor
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPY The Wall St Boys pulled it off The gap up over resistance and closing the gap. Red Flag The declining and poop volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7034ff3877dbdd3612b5f731b24fc8de7faf7b6ab1396413bcd62b4b265f918.png

  • Yoda

    that wasn’t too difficult to pull off

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    size matters not.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    your going to half to consider the 280 gap too if this one was easy…