The Canary Is Chirping Again

I’ve often called AAPL our canary in the coal mine in regards to equities. However, most likely due to unmitigated quantitative easing Apple’s recent fall from grace did not impose the gravitational pull that I had anticipated, at least not thus far. Not that we care anyway as we had a lot of fun riding it from the penthouse all the way to the lower basement. Of course you’re only as good as your last trade so let’s see where it’s heading next:

Over the weekend I showed this P&F to my subs and suggested that the canary may be chirping again soon. Well, it didn’t take long as it’s now sitting at an inflection point on that very chart. A breach of the 430 mark should turn the current low pole reversal warning into a neutral stance and that’s a good first step toward recovery.

The daily shows it above its 25-day SMA – yes it has attempted that before but there’s also a daily NLBL breach and that’s significant. I don’t want to be rash but a small long position may be worth the risk of getting stepped on again.

The long term panel also is looking positive. Note that the weekly is pushing back above a NLSL (albeit we still have four more sessions to go here) – the monthly is currently painting a hammer (and concluding tomorrow), and that’s potentially bullish.

Until today AAPL remained solidly in our sell basket but as of right now I’m reversing back into a neutral and possibly bullish stance. I think 430 is a key level that needs to hold until Friday – if it swings back down then we may see that bearish PO of 355 fulfilled after all. If it does hold here then we may be able to enjoy a smooth ride into 460 where the 100-day SMA looms.

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Cheers,