Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
The Dollar Is On Fire
31

The Dollar Is On Fire

by The MoleNovember 30, 2016

A rising tide floats all boats, as long as you’re swimming in equities apparently. Currencies, futures, and bonds however have been selling off hard since the launch of the post election Dollar rally. How far it’ll manage to run remains anyone’s guess (although I have some ideas) but it seems that it may at least be taking a little breather – for now that is:

2016-11-30_usd

The Bollinger overlays show us the Dollar breaching both upper thresholds and currently retracing a little which I would consider as rather normal. From here we usually either see a retest of the upper 100 (1) which may involve a dip back inside, allowing the BB to catch up while price establishes a new base for continuation higher. Alternatively we may see a more thorough correction and that one may drop us all the way back down to 99.5 (2). Although I am enjoying an increasingly favorable EUR/USD exchange rate over here in Europe either scenario would be very useful for us in terms of getting positioned.

2016-11-30_euro

Speaking of the EUR/USD – shown here are the 6E CME futures which are almost identical. I just took out a short position however I am prepared to flip for a long should it manage to climb above 1.06685. We are actually having ourselves a very nice inflection point here in that the Euro managed to climb back towards its daily NLBL at 1.06685. Should it push above it then I expect a little rally with a price objective of around 1.09 plus.

2016-11-30_euro_lt

On the bearish side this is one of those Last Kiss Goodbye setups which may launch a late trend move toward the downside. Very few people expect even more Euro weakness at this point, and that is exactly why I am still considering this as a scenario. The target area may be near par on the Dollar or even lower. Frankly I give this scenario about 30% right now although I am currently holding short. Odds still support at least an attempt to burn some of the laggard Euro shorts.

But wait – I kept the best one for my intrepid subs:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator