The Land Of Smiles
The land of smiles has become the land of sweaty balls… so I’m clicking my heels together three times and escaping back to Australia for some peace and quiet. That being said, I feel a disturbance in the crypto force. Remember last week I said that bitcoin should be going down hard but I don’t trust it? It felt “engineered” which I hardly ever say out loud.
Anyway, my messages started blowing up yesterday with people asking if they should sell their Crypto. That’s usually a sign of a bottom, so I started pulling up some charts and I had a strong emotional reaction to how hard altcoins have been Rekt. Of course this made me start thinking about counter trend entries and I jumped on twitter to see what the idiots think.
This mental giant was making ironic McDonalds job application jokes a few months ago (see the featured image above).
Now he’s not so ironic.
So how to trade crypto markets right now? For me it’s as simple as this. If BTC falls below $5900 support it will probably drop another 50%, and most altcoins will trade near zero.
Simple. Do not trade crypto in hell.
Yesterday it seemed like bitcoin was about to break support to the downside. If it did, the highest probability was a fast drop to test the $5900 level. This is the chart of the day-before-yesterday
So yesterday we dropped below support, and that selling did NOT trigger more selling, but more buying. I spy with my little eye… fuckery!
I put my toe in the water with a very speculative position at 1/3 normal size. I’m interpreting this as a concerted effort to hold support here. If you wanted a more cautious, sensible way to play it… wait for the retest.
If you are looking for altcoin entries what you are looking for is an UNDAMAGED CHART. One that still looks like an uptrend.
Oh, there’s a nice short entry on ES futures too!
Mole here – thanks for the great post Scott! I couldn’t agree more, in fact just this morning I came up with an info graphic variation on the Gartner Hype Cycle but specific to where we are in crypto right now. In short, prepare yourself for the long slide into the deep trough of disillusionment.
Gang: I’ll be back in Valencia on Wednesday, at which time you all have my full attention again. Many thanks again to Scott for filling in during my Escape from Las Fallas.