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The Land Of Smiles
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The Land Of Smiles

by ScottMarch 19, 2018

The land of smiles has become the land of sweaty balls… so I’m clicking my heels together three times and escaping back to Australia for some peace and quiet. That being said, I feel a disturbance in the crypto force. Remember last week I said that bitcoin should be going down hard but I don’t trust it? It felt “engineered” which I hardly ever say out loud.

Anyway, my messages started blowing up yesterday with people asking if they should sell their Crypto. That’s usually a sign of a bottom, so I started pulling up some charts and I had a strong emotional reaction to how hard altcoins have been Rekt. Of course this made me start thinking about counter trend entries and I jumped on twitter to see what the idiots think.

This mental giant was making ironic McDonalds job application jokes a few months ago (see the featured image above).

Now he’s not so ironic.

So how to trade crypto markets right now? For me it’s as simple as this. If BTC falls below $5900 support it will probably drop another 50%, and most altcoins will trade near zero.

Simple. Do not trade crypto in hell.

Yesterday it seemed like bitcoin was about to break support to the downside. If it did, the highest probability was a fast drop to test the $5900 level. This is the chart of the day-before-yesterday

So yesterday we dropped below support, and that selling did NOT trigger more selling, but more buying. I spy with my little eye… fuckery!

I put my toe in the water with a very speculative position at 1/3 normal size. I’m interpreting this as a concerted effort to hold support here. If you wanted a more cautious, sensible way to play it… wait for the retest.

If you are looking for altcoin entries what you are looking for is an UNDAMAGED CHART. One that still looks like an uptrend.

Oh, there’s a nice short entry on ES futures too!

Enjoy!

Scott Phillips

Mole here – thanks for the great post Scott! I couldn’t agree more, in fact just this morning I came up with an info graphic variation on the Gartner Hype Cycle but specific to where we are in crypto right now. In short, prepare yourself for the long slide into the deep trough of disillusionment.

Gang: I’ll be back in Valencia on Wednesday, at which time you all have my full attention again. Many thanks again to Scott for filling in during my Escape from Las Fallas.


About The Author
Scott

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Richard Adler

    disillusionment 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Is Mole still on vacation?

    ah.. Wednesday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkLTwX0duY4

  • Mary

    I got a sell signal for /NQ this morning on the *weekly* time frame … first target 6710 ….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    What a hit! $SPX -34
    Gonna stay another week on some beach.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good idea. you can practice your wave counting
    ;-D

  • HD

    It’s an ‘island’ top amigo.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    FANG selloff, very well coordinated too…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..what if you are an italian playboy worth 450 Mill, and the tattoo is of yourself?

    https://i.dmarge.com/2018/03/Gianluca-Vacchi-Back-Tattoo.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero signal suggests consistent selling, not surprisingly of course given the price action:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21413c0b85826446ceb857af99eaa0d95a4165077db6755f35e4677dca9f8e9f.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    “Mole’s on vacation” trade is kicking sweaty bulls balls

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    The reading is rather low at just under -.5 for this kind of selling isn’t it?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually that often happens during bot driven sell offs, yes. Doesn’t mean that it can’t trigger stops and drop the tape lower. What I usually look at in these cases is how consistent the selling is. Thus far it looks pretty consistent and constant. But yes – you are right – it looks a bit engineered.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which one?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know about sweaty. I’m not going to get too close.

    http://www.hitchcorner.com/hitch_covers/bull_balls/bullballs_hitchhang2.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where is everyone today?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie is in Hawaii.
    HD is on a beach.
    RW is gawd knows where.
    BL, probably a Dr. appointment.
    Scott’s on a plane.
    I just went church mouse.

  • BobbyLow

    Amazing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL. I’m around. Took my first hit on Crude futures this AM (one of the next thousand trades). But short Bio (LABD) is picking up some of the slack.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dam it bro, at your age, it’s good to check-in on Monday’s.
    😉

    https://i.imgflip.com/1kfeiz.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    interesting to note the weekly vix never went below 50 since feb., feels like 30 is definitely doable with fed rate and all the FANG short velocity…so long TVIX trade looks to be good, running behind today’s % already.. looking for entry

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    TVIX was the first thing I looked at this morning open. wasn’t attractive then,
    looks like it’s performing now.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p26842988660

  • ridingwaves

    it lags, sometimes better to get in on initial move, let others set the buying pace and get mixed up in all the volume..

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Thanks for clarifying

  • BobbyLow

    They’ll have to take my trading “away from my cold dead hands”. 🙂

    Seriously though, hopefully I’m a long way from it but just in case I told my wife that when the day comes that I need a nursing home, I would prefer “the gas pipe instead”. Nothing violent, maybe an overdose of something. My father and my father-inlaw were in a nursing home before they died and fuck that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Morally, I’m against it. But as a child, visiting a home bimonthly for two years, for my great aunt (stroke). I’m on the fence.

  • Edgy

    Just got back from two weeks in VeraCruz for “work”. Did I miss much?

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    My $Tick indicator is suggesting a reversal, going to try ES long. Order @ 2707

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Filled

  • Brishort

    I don’t count as part the most occasional guest at the Breakfast Club? :-p

  • ridingwaves

    battle royale , vix is not agreeable today for bulls

  • ridingwaves

    in at 8.26

  • BobbyLow

    My father played it just right because he was only in a home for a couple of weeks before he died. OTOH, my father-inlaw was in a nursing home for 2 years (about $80,000 worth). Almost every time we went to visit him, a hearse was there to pick someone else up. When they took a body out, I could almost visualize the suriving residents giving the deceased a “Standing -O” for making it out of there.

    This is a very depressing topic but a real one. Regarding a moral choice, it’s my life and it would be only my and my families business – not anyone elses if I chose to “close it out” rather than go into a nursing home. I would try like hell to go out in style though. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Crude’s been a real bitch to trade lately on relatively faster time frames with some stranger than “normal” behavior going on. (all things considered)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    aka “fuckery”

  • ridingwaves

    crude looks safe right now, without FANG trade who is going to lead the market….this could get ugly, kind of covering up what is most likely just a fed rate rise sell off

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There is a small bullish signal divergence but for now we should wait and see…

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    My lens is showing that last low as a fake out. $TICK still pointing up… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9879f9a62976a45200084da50acc061e8a081bb12fd06be1d0762ab9c6dc297b.png

  • BobbyLow

    Totally.

    I’m trading a 30 Minute Chart and I watched Crude prices hold relatively stable to the upside all morning until the beginning of my 10:30 AM Candle and then price fell like a rock 90 Cents from it’s 10:30 Candle High. By the close of the 1:30 PM Candle, price had come all the way back and returned to a pretty much flat line.

    BTW, my R levels are higher with Futures than with the 3X ETF’s but not drastically so. The biggest difference between the two is the speed at which money can flow in and out of my account.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Although, with the Down Trend Day alert and VWAP not even close to threatened I’m not too convinced of a reversal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Cool – we may be on to something.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no worries, you are part of the afternoon tea party.
    😉

    http://lovelaughmirch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/IndianAfternoonTea_Final_8.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..back from lunch.
    QQQ’s seem to have reached their limit for today.
    if Vwap is crossed, you know the routine.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36037873884

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I forgot to tell you that even though I’ve been trading short term /QM Crude Futures via 30 Minute Charts, I also have a position in 3X Long OILU via my Daily Chart in my other account along with a Short Bio position LABD.

    In the mean time, 400 Point Swings on the Dow have become the norm now I guess. Wow!

  • ridingwaves
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Closed out for 11 handles ES.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a trend indeed,
    NSD is “Not sufficient data. Data supressed to ensure confidentiality”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e2d81077fbf0769f58839b029aff03f91e50a666f7f6b7dfc808f4b0e2f1438.png

  • Tomcat

    Messed up generation

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I better cut back a little…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Edgy

    35?!

  • Edgy

    I’m concerned about Scott’s ES chart above. It’s there any consensus?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I hear you. I think about this stuff often. My dad lived at home til 86, went for a walk and his heart artery opened up. He was in the hospital 2 days and that was it. So… he lived on his own terms. lived in his own home, retired OK, raised 5 kids on a technician salary….. got lucky going all in on bonds back when rates were 10-13%, dumped his retirement all in…. he never liked stocks. I hope/wish to do as well as my father.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just reset the Zero. Was about to put up a post but I’m running out of time as we need to leave the house and had back to VLC.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {GG waves}

  • Mark Shinnick

    Begun shorting miners.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    copper has your back.
    go get them tiger.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    once you go Black.. (GG ducks)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_rhinoceros

    “Between four and five million years ago, the black rhinoceros diverged from the white rhinoceros.”
    It was a good run.

  • Mark Shinnick

    No wonder ET’s don’t consider us too credible…or safe to be around. This really is a prison planet.

  • ridingwaves

    no doubt they would ban humans from entering their planet atmosphere

  • Yoda

    Fucking Chinese and their nasty beliefs caused that.

  • Yoda

    Maybe now is the time to merge again. Long live the gray rhino.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hey now, let’s not be quick to blame the Chinese.
    let’s lay the blame squarely on our favorite country.. 😉

    http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-vietnam-rhino-trafficking-20160926-snap-story.html

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    long live Rhino diversity. it was the best of times, and the worst of times.

  • ridingwaves

    money did….Big game hunters did and yes all of Asia…..ancient remedies are just that….

  • Yoda

    Opioid crisis started after “The Company” went back to Afghanistan. Air America, fuck yeah!!

  • ridingwaves

    damn taliban wiped out 95% of the poppy crop before we stepped up our control again….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    they are so young, I’ll have to re-watch this.

    http://c8.alamy.com/comp/BKCDB5/air-america-1990-poster-BKCDB5.jpg

  • Yoda

    Those pesky ragheads, how dare they mess with our resources..

  • Mary

    The correct term is diaper heads … Just sayin’ …

  • ridingwaves

    hiding out in oil has been very comforting…the bull proxy to cover for FANG withdrawals…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    I stand corrected 😉

  • Tomcat
  • Julie

    RW Sharon GG Mary And Everyone Thanks for the tips on what to do in Hawaii. Wow ! Having a great time. Again Thanks !
    JULIE

  • Mary

    grass skirts for you?

  • Julie

    Thanks Mary. We were able to go to another island and get away from the crowds. Hawaii is beautiful. Bicycling too
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Hi Julie
    glad you are having a GREAT Time. I have been to mostly Maui on my trips there. It is so beautiful.

  • Julie

    Hi Sharon. It’s turning into a second honeymoon. Unreal ! Thanks for the tips. The sunsets are unreal. Could not agree more with you on the beauty. The Islanders are wonderful
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I did Maui. It was a life milestone event.
    rock on!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Milk *can* create issues.
    I’ve found the wonders of Keto recently. YMMV.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuUTAT5N24k

  • ridingwaves

    I’m Maui’s dad and I’m going to find you….

  • Ronebadger

    Get to the top of Haleakala for sunrise or sunset (Maui) Bring warmer clothing and jacket

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    a slight disturbance in the force, I feel Master Yoda

  • Yoda

    With FOMC on board tomorrow we’ll have to wait a bit longer for the fireworks

  • ridingwaves

    today was a throw away candle…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Don’t mean to piss you off, but I personally found Maui a bit dryer than the others around her.

  • Mark Shinnick

    GE pulled-out of Mojave where this thing was based after that test program.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you didn’t check out the back Road-to-Hana then.
    Very wet.
    http://mauiguidebook.com/basic-maui-info/average-rainfall-map-for-maui/

    Very curvy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s it then. I wash my hands of this criminal enterprise.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/05/whats-the-chance-of-iconic-ge-going-bankrupt/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ORCL
    she made some great cookies, but boy – did she mess with the Architect!

    about 133 Billion dollars, vaporized. (27 Billion common shares * $4.90)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c310cd2cfd712f4b38ecf8824ffe194942c9c4cd8ebfbe115144ccf5bb51705.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Actually, did her too a bit earlier around 1974…yeah, wetter.. different for sure.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …but it usually means something.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb