The Mother Lode Of Volatility
It’s Monday and I wish I had some good news to report. But I’m not going to sugarcoat it, you know me better than that: the next two weeks are going to be rough. For one I just checked the event roster and it’s looking pretty ugly there, with a veritable laundry list of potentially market moving events scheduled every day this week starting tomorrow.
A little past midnight on Tuesday president Trump is scheduled to meet with little rocketboy Kim-Jong-Un, and obviously pundits on both sides of the political spectrum are going to have a field day with whatever news or rumors I expect to leak out.
For the rest of the week it’s the Fed delivering the mother lode of market jitters comprised of economic projections, policy statements, interest rate announcements, which of course all will be analyzed in excruciating detail in an FOMC press conference. Thursday is the ECB’s turn to respond in kind followed by the BoJ on Friday.
Now if we somehow manage to come out of this week with our insanity intact then brace yourselves for what statistically is the most bearish week of the year: Week #25 with an impressive negative Sharpe ratio of -0.63. Which is a bit of a problem as the bulls were just about to get out of the gate. So unless we see a major move toward the upside in equities courtesy of the Fed then our current advance could quickly come to a screeching halt.
So although I’m a bit disappointed that I didn’t get my follow up spike low on the E-Mini last week, and hence a decent entry, I have an inkling that there most likely will be a nice retest before it reaches escape velocity > ES 2800. Heck, especially with Jerome ‘Kryptonite’ Powell scheduled to speak – he has not failed us yet! 😉
Given the scope of this week’s market moving events followed by historically the most bearish week of the year, I’ll be extremely selective on the setup front this week and the next. And let’s not forget that summer vacations are just around the corner and that will affect trading volume across the board. And less participation means more volatility.
Now, I do have a few Dollar related musings which are very exciting but must keep for my intrepid subs. If that’s not you then point your browser here to quickly remedy this unfortunate situation.
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