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The Onus Is On The Bears

The Onus Is On The Bears

by The MoleMay 30, 2013

Once again the onus is on the bears to drop the ball and they’re doing a smashing job of it. When it comes to rolling over and running for the hills at the slightest sign of buying pressure the remaining gang of grizzlies can’t be beat. Darwinism at its finest and I guess four years of Pavlovian conditioning with a cattle prod does leave some psychological marks.

I’ll be quick tonight as I am knee-deep in slinging code and want to put CrazyIvan into alpha testing by the end of this week. The greenback was no match for Bernanke’s foot as the daily stomping near its key inflection point of 84.5 was more than it could take. Down she goes and it doesn’t look like that 25-day SMA is going to put up much of a resistance so chances are it’s heading for 82 again. Hoping for a stronger Dollar? Not on on this Fed chairman’s watch!

Technically speaking (and that’s really the only thing that counts) that NLBL failure at 84.4 was a wonderful short opportunity – if you caught it that is 😉

Our RTV Sell on the daily spoos is looking a bit rough around the edges at this point. Our official stop isn’t until 1672.75 but as we’re approaching (and probably will cross) that NLSL at 1655.25 the odds are iffy at best right now.

And to further dampen the bears’ enthusiasm look no further than the VIX which somehow managed to put us two steps into a bonafide VIX buys signal (noobs: this is relative to equities). All we need is a lower close tomorrow and the odds of higher prices in the coming week rise considerably.

I did however manage to eek out some rather respectable setups for my intrepid subs – let’s roll through them quickly so that I can go back to fixing bugs (yes, in case you wonder – I do need a vacation):


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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Schwerepunkt

    So, is 1672 target on ES?

  • DarthTrader

    I hear ya on the Bears but tomorrow is last trading day of the month and fund money is getting deployed which is a short term affect through next Tuesday as I understand the phenomena.. Savvy Bears may be standing back and waiting for even better price levels to sell

  • bdoone

    And just to be sure Ben has a $4.25-5.25B POMO tomorrow.

  • BobbyLow

    “Once again the onus is on the bears to drop the ball and they’re doing a smashing job of it. When it comes to rolling over and running for the hills . . .” Seems like “Groundhog Day” and “Deja vu all over again” doesn’t it? 🙂

    Pretty tough fighting free money to the institutions. Lots of not so good economic stats this morning was berry berry good for the markets. (Bad news is still good news)

    Covered my oil short this morning just before it went green and have a small long oil position at this moment. Also have some net short to neutral long theta plays on a couple of stocks while being net short QQQ, IWM and TLT.

    Basically trading smaller size while increasing my number of positions. This allows me to sleep well at night. I refuse to turn the Financial News Channels on but I can visualize the talking heads saying why “It’s different this time”.

  • AmazingLarry

    Picked up some AAPL on it’s inside week breech which happened also to line up perfectly with the 100 SMA. It’s kind of been on algo cruise control since that last stop run. $465 next obstacle. P&F now shows $615 on the daily.

  • DarthTrader

    Some bear is gobbling up these End of months buyers

  • Schwerepunkt

    When the CNBC script readers say, “just heard the bias is to the down side into the close,” what are they basing that on? Is that market information available elsewhere? Is it only available anywhere in the last half-hour?

  • BobbyLow

    They’re probably basing it on the same thing that we see which is the movement of futures. They try make you believe that they know something when in fact I’ll bet that most of us here know more about price action than they do.

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, I think they are getting information about the actual order flow/order book from the floor specialists. But I don’t know for sure, hence my query. Would like to hear if anyone knows the answer.

  • mrmik3

    they are script readers pure & simple like you said and i doubt they will ever provide you with valuable insight about the market…..i stopped watching tv long ago and never looked back

  • ridingwaves

    And tomorrow next month pomo schedule comes out….i think if they back off purchases and you see some sales dates within the schedule it could offer the bears some hopium…

  • Joe_Jones

    For a moment I thought that the title of the post was “The Anus is on The Bears” and then I realized that it’s impossible ’cause Bears have no more anus left, but a giant gaping hole, after the last 6 months of non-stop gang rape. The market will crash when BB says so, and right now he is doing a fantastic job for my PM miners 😉

  • amokta

    Ok, sold rbcn

  • DarthTrader

    Well Done . .LOL

  • Schwerepunkt

    That is a separate question. Actually, when they do make those announcements about the “bias” into the close, it usually is accurate and the price action unfolds as they said it would, but that is only anecdotal.

  • Schwerepunkt


  • saltwaterdog

    They are quoting the notional value of net market on close orders, Buy vs Sell. Those orders start to hit the market in the last 45min or so and are required to be submitted by 345pm. It is not a reliable indication of market direction as real time orders can and often do offset

  • DarthTrader

    Schweet Sell off!

    Now it I could have 4 of those for Breakfast . . .

  • BobbyLow

    Amen and to that to which I will add – My name is BobbyLow and it has been 4 Years 6 Months and 24 Days since my last CNBC viewing. 🙂

    P:S IMNSHO, CNBC can make a trader broke, homeless and destitute.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Interesting. Who collates and reports this information? Is it available online? Thanks.

  • saltwaterdog

    It’s from the NYSE. I’m sure it’s out there somewhere online, but I haven’t looked for it.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    search for “NYSE closing imbalances”

  • mrmik3

    haha.. its been about 5 years for me too.. and i seriously don’t miss a thing… i go to some underground kinda conspiracy related sites for news and consistently read articles that are on the nightly news 3 days later sometimes a week!!

  • tradingmom


    spx 60 triangle still in play
    sorry for the link — I’ll post a pic if I get a lesson first!

  • Ronebadger

    Yes, watching the same triangle with you…let’s see what happens

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    look at all those SPX whiskers.

    denied, denied, denied



  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys are easily entertained…

  • Schwerepunkt

    I don’t think anybody else noticed that little diacritical mark on the Scandinavian Å. This letter is pronounced closer to an O than an English A.

  • AmazingLarry

    Can’t you just save the image to your desktop, drag and drop?

  • amokta

    I noticed it, but initially thought my lcd panel had gone faulty or spec of dirt on it!

  • amokta

    This might work – use the above url and open a tab in browser, then right click on the picture once it shows, and select ‘copy image location’ from menu, and then paste this ‘png’ url link into the comment box?

  • Kerberos

    Have a grudge against Scandinavia, eh?

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, just find that letter quixotic. I once worked for a UN agency as a contract writer and the president’s name started with that letter. Didn’t know how to pronounce it when I met him at first. A bit awkward when I had to pen a speech he was to deliver.

  • amokta

    Looks like Dartht maybe right. Spoos drop ten so far

  • Skynard

    Good morming sell off:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool


    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸


  • AmazingLarry

    All those nice daily candles all lined up in a row. Hourly /ES wedgie still in play. Tick, tick, tick….