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The Shorts Got The Shaft

The Shorts Got The Shaft

by The MoleNovember 16, 2012

Some brutal candles on the E-Mini in the past two hours and I hope you didn’t get caught with your pants down. As you recall the warning signs were on the horizon yesterday which is why I got out of my short positions once we breached that 25-hour SMA this morning. I have been banking some fine coin on the way down and frankly don’t really care about a few more candles down here:

It’s been a long ride and the odds of a meaningful bounce are now outweighing any downside profit potential. Although it’s quite possible that we fail the hourly NLBL and drop even lower on Monday I’m now more interested in finding a good spot to get positioned to the upside. But let’s not rush things – the fat lady may not have sung yet and thus patience is key. A breach of that NLBL today would be a good start – a push above the 100-hour SMA on Sunday or Monday even better. Either way – when it happens the Mole will be there to report it 😉

As suggested to my subs I flipped my natgas short for a long position this morning after we breached that NLBL. I am very much liking this setup as the daily now sports nice support. So I’ll hold this position into the weekend with a stop below the 100-hour (which is conveniently rising).

CAD/JPY – finally we got the breach we were waiting for. I am now long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. This thing has been coiling up for months and we could be seeing a nice move here. So if you haven’t yet here’s another reason for you to sign up for my Google+ alerts – the early morning pickings have been most delectable lately!

A few more goodies below – please step into my lair:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Now I know cotton is probably not on your radar but the setup I’m seeing here could spin a long way (hey, come up with a better analogy!). I love that diagonal support at the 25-hour SMA and want to be long on a breach of the 100-day SMA.

Crude has been a bit wild lately – I know. But that’s often floors are being produced. I think a push above 87.5 may lead us higher – I’d give it a shot with a handful of contracts and build up my position if it swings the right way.

GBP/USD is a bit of a headache on the hourly right now but that often is a good thing, assuming it can overcome all those hurdles. I want to be long here if we make it above about 1.59.

GOOG – this one is very speculative, so I’ll allow myself a few lottery tickets IF (and only if) the 25-hour is being breached. I’d say we have a 50/50 chance here, so don’t get too excited. This is a low probability high profit potential type of setups – a.k.a. a lottery tickets.


We had another smashing week and you know what’s on Mole’s agenda now:

Aaah – simple pleasures…. Wishing you all a great weekend!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ronebadger
  • Tronacate

    s ES at breach of 25

  • George Schubert

    This is perfectly summed up.

  • wvobiker

    Gold and Silver margins decreased.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, Spoos on the loose. Let’s see some rampage:)

  • molecool

    Well, thank you! 🙂

  • bdoone

    Gotta get thru that 1356.25 NLBL to get shorts scrambling.

  • Reit Renner

    There are far better ways to see the market than a couple of Bollinger bands.

  • Skynard

    Need to see some confirmation on the ZL, otherwise will have to reverse.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Anybody know (Fearless chime in if you are around) what MAs Fearless uses for the golden cross he mentioned in the last comments. 50/200? the third cross on those last jan. tia.

  • BobbyLow

    If this is meant as a criticism, then why not be constructive?  

    OTOH, if this is meant to be a wise ass remark then I suggest you refrain from these types of comments because they don’t help anyone.  

  • itslance

    Looks like this one is going to go right down to the wire to see if we get the 1356.25 close

  • catracho

    Check out Jun 1 and 4 compared to today

  • BobbyLow

    Well, well.  How about the Low of the EUR/USD of 1.2690 today?  Unfortunately, that is 3 Pips below my stop of 2693.  But as Skynard mentioned about extremes, I got back in at 2698 so I got some Pips back.

    Came very close to getting stopped on short of USD/CAD but that ended up being a phony move as well.  In this case, I was glad I went with wider stops.  

    My long Oil position began to wake up a little so this is good.

    Anyhow, holding 5 Currency Pairs over the weekend so we’ll see what happens.

    Have a great weekend everybody.   

  • Darth_Gerb

    *market closed*

    well? did the Marines save the day?
    was the VWAP line crossed?
    have a great weekend rats.

  • Fearless

    EOD market data suggest (again, the data is skewed on OpEx day, so I don’t pay too much attention to it) across the board selling, but no selling of SPY. This is really looking like it will be a good place to go long next week around Thanksgiving.

  • Skynard

    Thanks for the input, still waiting for 1550. Think it’s going to be a very quick move:)

  • ridingwaves

    I’m still thinking drainage monday-tuesday followed by turkey and stuffing bull run after…Tarp sales seem to kick in some volatility with primary dealers having to take in some paper from the fed… note fed MBS purchases increased 37 billion this week…so banks should have some extra cash as fed purchases are done for the month…

    looked like some buying in beat up sectors..Miners had outside reversal in many symbols..

  • ridingwaves

    The RSI looks like a duplicate….

  • ridingwaves

    CFTC Data shows traders increasing bets on silver, gold rise, increasing copper, PGM drop

  • Darth_Gerb

    it’s looking like a good place for a rebound, you can see the ratio has reached the general bounds.
    there’s always exceptions, but I’m looking at this with a Volar quantative point-of-view.$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p15998134273

  • AMCabrera
    I rarely drink. I really mean rarely. But I drink these beers to my Kaiser. I have recovered greatly in the forex.  Mole thank you very much for reminding us to just take action only.

  • molecool


  • molecool

    Nothing gets past Bobby 🙂

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

  • jigdaddy

    fearless you around? a new roadmap would be excellent 😉