The Trap Door
Bulls must be feeling the rope around their collective necks as this has been the first negative OPEX week in a long time. Here is an SPX 5 min chart.
The yellow picket fence is a TD momentum indicator. It is located at the same level as the purple dashed intra-day VWAP. When it is double density (like the red one below) it means that the Price Exhaustion target of the red picket fence is qualified and “on the table”. I watched it flash qualified not 3 minutes ago – which if not a definite go ahead, is certainly a bearish indication.
SPX has breached the red dashed line as I type – this is an important TD support level and suggests that SPX has more room downwards. Below that is the red picket fence at 1085.78; SPX was in a tight range between the VWAP (purple dashed line at 1091.62, and the TD buyers level at 1090.02. GIven how the brown and green 9 pMA and 34 pMA (moving averages) are in a bearish cross, I can see that 1085.78 target being attainable on a longer than “scalpers” time frame.
Here is SPX a bit later. Notice how the yellow picket fence went away.
And right away came back. 1085.78 is DEFINITELY on the table.
My market picture volume chart shows that SPX is below where “the market wants to be”. The shape of volume distribution is quite normal looking (statistically speaking). Unfortunately, it is proprietary to Bloomberg so I cannot show a picture. Suffice to say that SPX is at a level where one would expect a move up. So where are the bulls?
Tick Tock. Tick Tock.
Living inside a broken clock.