Now Reading
The End Of The Beginning
226

The End Of The Beginning

by The MoleFebruary 9, 2018

This may sound a bit strange coming from a born German (and now proud U.S. citizen) but I’m actually quite a fan of Sir Winston Churchill as I was always fascinated by his irreverent personality. He had a very interesting upbringing as a child due to a rather complicated relationship with his then renowned father. What’s most compelling however, and what stands in stark contrast to the so called political leaders of today, is how he actively sought out seemingly unsurmountable challenges and then faced them head-on and without compromise throughout his entire life. He is remembered by many timeless quotes but here is one of my favorites:

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Now I started to feel a bit like Winston over the past year actually in that I continued to see the damocles sword of a significant market correction hanging over the market but everybody apparently was too busy chasing every higher bits to even remotely pay attention. BTFD has now become a household word and I am not saying this to criticize anyone as we’ve been using it very effectively over the past 9 years or so. Had we attempted to step in front of this fast moving speed train I wouldn’t be here writing about it and we’d both be taking turns scrubbing plates at the local MacDonald’s or Fatburger if we were lucky.

Before we’ll get to the part where I tell you what to expect next I ask you to humor me for a moment, as I want to be on record with some of the highlights that I posted out in the open and some of the ones I reserved for my intrepid subs. Number one would be market breadth expressed by the SPXA50 vs. the SPXA200, one of my all time favorite momo charts. Three breaches below the upper bearish threshold of at exactly 1.0 and no reaction whatsoever in price. Which, as I rightly pointed out on several occasions, was completely unprecedented and nothing good could come from it.

And I’m sure you guys recall my post where I equalled a year of record low VIX readings (shown above is the VIX term structure) to a pitcher continuing to go to the well… until of course it finally and most unceremoniously broke last week.

Here’s the same VXV:VIX ratio again but inverted and with a set of BBs we have much enjoyed using in order to pin reversal confirmations over the past few years. Well, good luck doing it this time as the signal is shot to hell and even outpaced the big spike in the VIX term structure we saw in 2015. And like back then it took quite a while until equities found their footing again.

But this time may even be worse as the first big leg lower in the SPX was re-challenged but not broken. The formation we are looking at now however is a completely different beast. We’ve got a much higher base in that the market was levitating without rhyme or reason exterminating any short interest in the process.

And of course all those years of excess now come at a price, which is that there are no support levels anywhere near us. Just because I’m drawing those fancy moving averages doesn’t mean equities are compelled to observe them. In regards to damage done we’ve got three breached weekly Net-Line Sell Levels and a touch of the 25-week SMA. The last one was in November 2016 and prices quickly rebound.

What Comes Next?

And a bounce better happen quickly as we are in danger of breaching a monthly NLSL at 2558. We already have three confirmed weekly Net-Line Sell signals and if that one gets taken out the SPX is taking the express elevator to the woodshed. Admittedly today is only the 9th and a lot can happen over the next 19 days. But that 25-week SMA is hugging recent price action pretty closely and thus a breach through would wipe out a trend line the bulls have enjoyed (and eventually completely abandoned) for over a year.

Which exactly is the problem when price pushes ahead without the benefit of recurring and cleansing mean reversion. Eventually there is a price to be paid and equity investors are paying it now. The most bullish scenario right now is that equities can hold the line, perhaps dip a little lower to scare the children, but then paint some type of spike low on that weekly.

But if we continue much further from here then we may get a fast and nasty bounce eventually BUT the technical long term damage will be felt for the remainder of this year and perhaps even this decade.

But we are not done just yet, please meet me below the fold…

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

 

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Apparently Churchill was a fuckup and a klutz.
    But his Mother was an American. That’s good enough in my book.
    πŸ˜‰

    http://www.history.com/news/10-things-you-may-not-know-about-winston-churchill

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s become very fashionable to criticize historical figures these days as it seemingly makes you seem smart and educated. It adds nothing to of substance to the conversation unless it’s backed up by a cohesive argument. If nothing else he inspired a many people and he will still be remembered when we are all long forgotten.

  • Mary

    I think that attitude is derived from Critical Theory which was developed by the Frankfurt School.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Tomcat

    Initiating position in $NG. Oct contract.

  • johnb

    I believe a low of 2540 on the ES and a bounce, creating a divergence, would present a high probability entry.

  • Tomcat

    Recent volatility suggests we may get there today

  • BobbyLow

    The man is “cooking with gas”. . .:)

  • Tomcat

    I gotta to say, unlike other instruments, this has been the most kind to me, going back to 2017.

  • BobbyLow

    Churchill was the right man at the right time. . .

  • BobbyLow

    Most people including me have difficulty trading NG but it appears that you have a correct approach to trading it.

  • Tomcat

    Let’s not jinx it BL πŸ˜‰

  • Yoda

    Churchill reminds me of the period when man used to carry his man card with him. A period of common sense where good values, ethics and morals were all what mattered. If we had today leaders like him, the world would be in a better shape. Here are some famous quotes of the Man [liberals and gender neutral folks need to cover their eyes]:

    “Courage is the ability to go from failure to failure with enthusiasm.”
    “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions.”
    “If you’re not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you’re not a conservative at forty, you have no brain.”
    “Everyone is in favor of free speech. Hardly a day passes without its being extolled, but some people’s idea of it is that they are free to say what they like, but if anyone else says anything back, that is an outrage.”
    “Fear is a reaction. Courage is a decision.”
    “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
    “Never give up on something that you can’t go a day without thinking about.”
    “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
    “Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”
    “A good speech should be like a woman’s skirt: long enough to cover the subject and short enough to create interest”
    “It is my belief, you cannot deal with the most serious things in the world unless you understand the most amusing.”
    “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”
    “A nation that forgets its past has no future.”
    “There is nothing government can give you that it hasn’t taken from you in the first place.”
    “Schools have not necessarily much to do with education…they are mainly institutions of control where certain basic habits must be inculcated in the young. Education is quite different and has little place in school.
    “Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen: all know how to die: but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.”

  • Tomcat

    BL, what does your lens see in Oil & GASO?

  • Yoda

    It is the right time for another one like him

  • Tomcat

    I may be early here, but Silver is looking like a long in the weekly.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This woman gets it.

  • BobbyLow

    I think Churchill was a great man and have already said he was the right man for the right time. I feel the same way about Franklin Roosevelt.

    Funny thing is that I consider myself to be a “True Liberal” in that people can believe whatever they want to believe just don’t tell me what I have to believe. I’ll decide that for myself.

  • evilasevildoes

    i think 7600 is pivot on BTC looking for big change at 4 minutes to close flat month into Mid March

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    … or what to say or do.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did I ever tell you guys about the Pivot experiment?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’m not sure about the weekly. but I can definitely see it, in the daily.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37206403009

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    On your daily chart I see a revisit of the lower bar. Different interpretation I guess

  • Mary

    I don’t think Churchill could win right now. He would be destroyed in the press.

    In the USA we really don’t have ‘leaders’ we have elected representatives.

    The current batch is a symptom, not the problem.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yep. multi multi lenses. the cool thing is, adapting the attitude of – “i’ll try, if not, next thousand trades” the emotional detachment is key.

  • BobbyLow

    It is still surprisingly weak and falling further as I write this. I don’t want to reopen another short here and carry it over the weekend. If we get closes below 60 next week then I might have to go short again. OTOH, I’m looking for signs of crude regaining some strength and I’ve seen absolutely no evidence of that happening yet.

  • Tomcat

    Hard to disagree on the weakness. Maybe I am trying to bottom fish here, time will tell.

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed.

  • Yoda

    and further promoted by the globalists, EU, UN, etc

  • Mary

    You sound more like a libertarian than a liberal.

  • BobbyLow

    Yesterday’s extreme volatility shook me out of my shorts yesterday and it’s been so long since we’ve been in a Bear Market (if we really are in the beginning of one) that the price action confused me.

    We’ve talked about how totally different styles can both be successful. I’m not a support/resistance guy and just try to keep it simple by buying strength and selling weakness. We’re over a 10% correction now so one might think that it has to stop soon but it really doesn’t have to.

    So I’ll wait until Monday and if it’s not showing any signs of regaining strength by then I might just re-open another small short just to get back in the flow of the price action. Then if I get stopped for a loss, it’ll be a real signal to get long.

  • BobbyLow

    I guess I’m part Libertarian Mary but there are also areas where I moderately lean to the left. So when I go to vote, I usually (like most people) have to hold my nose. πŸ™‚

  • Tomcat

    Same here BL. When I vote its usually a result of who I dislike the least vs who I like the most. Seems like its hard to find great leaders nowadays, but as George Carlin put, every nation gets the government they deserve, and even though its hard to accept, we may deserve this chitte

  • BobbyLow

    Fricken 2 minutes and he has a 2009 Post up. πŸ™‚

  • Tomcat

    You are underestimating his abilities, it was barely a minute.

  • Yoda

    You were born in different times BL. Those born in the last 2 decades have no idea what ethics and morals are all about. They got it all mixed up due to constant brainwashing by mass media and the education system. For fuck sake, even the Canadian PM has now come up with the term “peoplekind” for “mankind”. How fucked up is that? What’s next? Replacing “female” with “feperson”?
    I can’t get any more of this nonsense.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve closed labd 3x shorts for the time being.

  • Tomcat

    BL, perhaps my time-frame is longer, but this why I am bullish $GASO here:
    http://schrts.co/9hrLB1

  • Yoda

    I’ll wait for the silver miners to give us an advance warning first. They are still dropping hard now

  • Yoda

    assuming you get a choice in the first place

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No, some years back they conducted an experiment where they were taught traders about Pivot Points who then started trading them. However after a while the PPs were replaced by random lines by the research team but the traders continued to see value in them and strongly believed that they pivots they were given had technical relevance.

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose so Yoda. One of the things about longevity (or being an old fuck) is that I’ve seen the pendulum swing back and forth more than once where we’ve gone from one extreme to the other. The current “fuck you” discourse by certain powerful politicians and loved by a portion of the country is I believe in part an over correction of being massively saturated with political correctness which is loved by another portion of the country. If I’m correct, the middle normally wakes up at the edges of whackyness and the pendulum begins to swing again.

  • Yoda

    What amazes me with this correction is that traders have been so far refusing to jump into bonds as a flight to safety. This is a new development to me. If the objective of this premeditated correction is to eventually push treasuries rates down, then algos are going to need more cowbells and switch into overdrive. However, with OPEX next week, I am highly sceptical about a sustained downside move given how high VIX is already.

  • BobbyLow

    Without actually drawing it, I can visualize a trendline from around the latter part of June or beginning of July to now and if it holds could be a good spot.

  • Mark Shinnick

    You touch on the exact point of % shock and liquidity now happening.

  • BobbyLow

    Gold Bugs have also disappeared. Doesn’t appear to be any place to hide right now.

  • Mary

    I think there is a lot of truth to what you say, however a few posts up you mentioned that you didn’t like being told what to believe. Well that is exactly what the term “political correctness” is masking. No wonder so many people are reacting with “F*** you”. How do you react when being told what to believe?

  • Darkthirty

    Is that referencing the same correlation of T/A and algos?

  • Yoda

    DX?

  • BobbyLow

    I think I remember GMAK or GMAT (something like that) putting Pivot Points out early every morning back in 09 or 10 while you were living in CA.

  • Julie

    SPX Per previous post late last night down to 2450
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Would you please elaborate?

  • BobbyLow

    I think we can find many things to agree on and an over abundance of political correctness is one of them. However, there are attitudes of my way or the highway that come from the other side that cause me to react with a big F you too. I’ll leave it at this, there were some things that I didn’t like about Ronald Reagan but I voted for him twice.

    Reagan must be rolling around in his grave about now.

  • BobbyLow

    I ain’t goin long nuttin. . .

  • Darkthirty

    I had 2426, but that was a couple days ago………….ST target is 2538

  • Julie

    Sure Ronebadger An ABC down from 2872 with 2727 retracing approx.50% 2872 down to 2593. The second equal leg down from 2727 is approx. 2450 which is the upper boundary of the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud matching closely with the daily 377 ema at approx. 2440. I am not a waver but I do look for symmetry such as ABC’s
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Gocha…thanks

  • Ronebadger

    Shorts and VIX are back in business… yeah, recent, funny business…

  • Ronebadger

    I’m a waver from the 80s…not so much anymore…but putting my wave-hat back on, I’m going with: We are in a Wave 5 now, since 2873

  • Yoda

    for me if the volume hole at 2525 doesn’t hold, then 2415 could be the next support.
    https://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-07_volume_hole.png

  • Julie

    I know EWT Wave 4 retraced too much and wave 5 as you are implying way out of line with wave 1. Looks like IMO an ABC. I do not trade EWT more important to me are fib moving averages,; support – resistance – ; trend lines; channels; overbought and oversold ; fib retracements matching all above
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    You are referencing a perfect EW scenario… I’m not looking for such symmetry or a perfect channel…I’m just looking at a Wave 3, and examining what’s above and below it. (Tell me we didn’t just get a Wave 3 over the past 6-7 days…)

  • Julie

    Hi Yoda 2450 matches the weekly upper cloud boundary ; the rising weekly 89 ema and the daily 377 ema Shown SPX weekly chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f0a121248f0980233d750f865b18a2206d984a521d64ab83a769f18a9f0c016.png

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know.

    Whatever is happening whether in the short term or the long term, “this too shall pass”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah – the whole metals sector is redder than a turnip.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=d1

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    THANK YOU

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I never used them… maybe you can hunt down one or two charts I posted in my youthful exuberance but I just don’t see the value. This Italian guy tried to make something similar work called ‘retracement levels’ – never worked either – LOL

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sold my tbt

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    The advance from 2593 up to 2727 was 3 waves Now if it was more of a consolidation or triangulation I would agree with you. As stated the near 50% retracement from 2593 up to 2727 more like a B than a 4
    JULIE

  • HD

    Did someone say EW? Here is a visual to how I saw the wave and how I talked about in real time here. Just my POV. The overlaps at 2851 and 2681 were key wave developments

    From my lens we are at a very dangerous spot on the chart. as Mole has mentioned too.
    This chart is open for critical feedback. I know I have it coming. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f5fd9d2b72de548a6539f42cba47cd9806de3c35209e5c246d319b147de9225.png

  • Julie

    Hi GG XHB and BAC Yeah !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I get where you’re coming from but ask yourself WHY gender forms were created in the first case. Sex and gender aren’t mutually exclusive as you seem to be believe.

    In German ‘die Sonne’ (for the sun) most likely stems from the fact that in Nordic (very cold) countries the warmth of the sun was precious and associated with being live giving and thus ‘feminine’ or ‘female’. In Spanish curiously it’s ‘el sol’ which always trips me a up a little – perhaps cultures developing in warm climates do not care as much about the heat as Northern Europeans do πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    Something very interesting is happening right now on 10 y treasuries:
    Rates failed to retest the recent high and it looks like the up-trend may be compromised
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15628649fc0fa8623d6169be5bbe2e88c4b1174d418d9ae7e76db2bea66a0fff.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    great!

    if you really hate the banks, go after XLF!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99286177430

    EDIT: that lower band ‘should’ hold. so beware a bounce. if not?, merci!

  • Julie

    You got it Yoda. In a previous post on a previous thread I outlined the weekly TLT and said yields were probably going lower
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yep, hence my post yesterday on TBT. (I know, it’s a 20y. sue me)

  • Yoda

    Thanks Julie. Let’s keep tracking those.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    she has a trader log now.. (I bet it’s Bozeman red)

  • Julie

    Hi Chief not counting waves just looking for symmetry As stated I do not trade EWT. Very important to me is my Ichi Cloud ; exp fib moving averages and they align with SPX target 2450. Now 2450 just happens to be symmetrical with an ABC I do not count waves and have no idea of what wave
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, maybe I shouldn’t be dramatic.
    say 26.0 even.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42489191261

  • Darkthirty

    Denial ain’t a river in Egypt….

  • Yoda

    Closed the remaining L VXX. We have a positive div on 5 min zero.
    That was a great trade but I won’t overstay my welcome with it.
    Looking for good bouncing victims now…. and an iced cold hefeweizen

  • Mark Shinnick

    Liquidity

  • Floyd

    Hide in digital gold, BTC…just had to said

  • Julie

    Chief As stated Yes I know EWT but I do not trade by it. As stated my Ichi Cloud and fib exp moving averages are paramount to me Check out GDX as an example. Weekly chart up exactly into the weekly 233 ema and upper cloud boundary being overbought. I also look for chart patterns and symmetry.I do not care what wave it is all I know and care about is the failure at the cloud boundary ; 233 ema and the pattern a trading range consolidation. I could care less about EWT https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/021caa3ad2ebbfc4538653ae2e20ecfbead1e1c1ee54c09187e633a05e565d2e.png Shown GDX weekly chart JULIE

  • Julie

    Chief Fib Exp Moving Averages are as follows 3 – 5 – 8 – 13 – 21 – 34 – 55 – 89 – 144 – 233 – 377 As you have probably noticed they are included in my charts. along with my Ichi Cloud Again I do not care about EWT
    JULIE

  • TS

    Is it possible that the money had to go into paying down Margin? Forgive my naivete.

  • Ronebadger

    That’s what I’m talking about…BOY, we are W-wanking today!

  • Ronebadger

    VIX is snappy……again

  • BobbyLow

    Getting close to a 12% Correction in Crude since Jan 25 (11 Trading Days) I have no position at this moment. I can understand a lack of buyers in equities. But was Crude so over priced that it caused a dump of this extreme in such a short period of time? Probably so because of the irony of price being truth while the markets are simultaneously full of shit at all times.

  • Mark Shinnick

    There is more kinds and sorts of margin stuff happening you wouldn’t believe.

  • Tomcat

    Maybe a case of throw the baby with the bathwater scenario. I remember seeing a report of extreme bullish positions at mid 60s. Price is the only truth.

  • Edgy

    ES grinding down to recent low: 2529. I wonder if it’ll blast through it or churn something awful.

  • Ronebadger

    http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
    Fear-Greed at 8….uh, ohhh….

  • Julie

    SPX there could be a bounce at the daily 233 ema approx 2530 or the weekly 55 ema approx. 2510 IMO any bounce would be shortable As stated my target is 2450 in posts and a weekly chart below
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Back when I was a bold and larger sized trader, I was trading equities at about a 4:1 Margin and I used to run some serious margin debt back when it had around a 11% interest to do. Like I said back then, I was brave and bold and I should add naive which eventually led me to being a meek and smaller sized trader. πŸ™‚

    I’ll bet that there are a lot of heavy hitters running 10 : 1 and even 20 :1 margins.

  • Edgy

    Ha, i just saw a glimpse of the wall waiting down there, 1800 contracts pending at just the LOD, 2530.25.

  • Tomcat

    Time to BTFD. Wish me luck.

  • BobbyLow

    Price is the only truth because it is what it is and there can be no denying what it is.

    It’s what drives price that can be total bullshit.

  • Edgy

    Good luck! Guess I better cover.

  • Tomcat

    Ha, time will tell!

  • BobbyLow

    You buying gasoline?

  • Lugman

    Good luck. Was thinking on lottery ticket since the down momentum _appears_ to be waning, but there is no confirmation yet and weekend coming so I decided to wait over the weekend and watch.

  • Tomcat

    Yes sir!

  • Tomcat

    Patience is a virtue which unfortunately I need more of.

  • Tomcat

    Did I read there is a 2PM margin call thing???

  • Julie

    SPX As stated in a post below could be a bounce off the daily 233 ema approx. 2530 and now we have it
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slight divergence on the Zero but it’s still a bit too early to think about longs.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffb72acb36cba0632686ce4383687d76b53e68a88bc04e90f7dda980e79e3340.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    did someone say *gasoline*?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GASO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p66285279213

    a small upside in this crazy world.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m seeing a tiny bit of movement so I took a flyer on 1/2 positions in UCO and OIH. If I lose, I can blame you. πŸ™‚

    Seriously though, even though this goes against the grain for me this sell off has been extreme and worth a small position on the long side.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a tepid bottom.
    thinking of a Monday, “all-is-well” kind of reverse up.

    that median 2666 will be the the LEVEL to watch IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8686bfb2b0136a028387815cfaec035b36b58e33d70cb11e898ad1918ab66e0.png
    -GG

  • Tomcat

    Only counts if we close near 1.73. Right its below 1.7

  • BKXtoZERO

    Or you can just change your name to BKX to ZERO 2…

  • Nate

    I can’t believe I waited this long to sign up for the zero. It’s simply amazing how much context it adds to what is going on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good point.

    is there a correlation between XOM & Gaso?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12123062653

  • Tomcat

    Out of $ES.

  • Tomcat

    What would make this day better is if GASO turn green. Is that too much too ask?

  • Julie

    GG Could be Bro Not sure yet I think a pullback now as I type going up into the 10 min 89 ema and a 38.2% retracement will occur shortly. If it does occur shortly then a leg down followed by a leg up to approx. 2653 – 2666 as you state. Then down to my 2450 target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I forgot my caveat, and this lines up with Mole.

    the HIgh Yield pump needs to turn back on.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3fd30df68950005f2dd339218e786ca9946efc88acd7f326b4853d09efd8b30f.png

  • Julie

    TC What is the price if gas where you live ? $2.78 in Bozeman
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ahem 2.58. unless you’re buying premiums.

    http://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/Montana/Bozeman

    no, I’m not stalking ..officer!
    πŸ˜‰

  • Tomcat

    I live in Chicago Julie, it varies anywhere between 2.7-3.

  • Tomcat

    I have a buy @2535. Am I getting a fill today?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    GG, please tell me you are not one of those guys that drives miles to save a few pennies.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    30 years ago. yes.
    now. are you kidding me!!!!?

    I lose more on a late payment.

  • Julie

    No to get his windshield washed ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    “If” you use autopay how can you ever be late???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Muwahaha. autopay? you mean “auto mess up your money?”
    what’s that?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    TC loved it when the Cubbies won the World Series. What a Series with Cleveland who had not won the Series in a very long time too. Great seven games
    JULIE

  • Julie

    I play softball love the game. Led the league in home runs the last two years. I play second base
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    I don’t follow baseball Julie, but I remember going to some great parties after that happened. I am a retired/ex pro MMA fighter who has a full time office job now and of-course part time trader.

  • Tomcat

    I was warned by many (http://disq.us/p/1pmczt7), and rightly so, that I was fckin bonkers shorting $NFLX but ofcourse I kept building my short every $10 this chit went up all the way to 280. Today I am covering 75%.

    I must say, I got very lucky. And luck beats skill every fckin time.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The VWAP breach is extremely positive going into the weekend. I wouldn’t buy and hold futures here but a few ITM calls are on my roster:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d504e0f1d2261db910c4f7792b03fe3f66a9a24bee5d4745de3ee12691f2a6a4.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +1 for a late Friday update.

    you must be feeling better.

  • Julie

    Chief Your charts 60 min and 5 min ?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I felt very good today – why? Didn’t like my post?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}
    it’s on the chart. squint.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sometimes πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nope. all of it good.

  • HD

    That was a sweet entry and exit! Kudos

  • Julie

    Thanks Chief I expanded the chart and yes I saw the hourly and 5 min Chief Have A Great Weekend What a week it was ! Loved it ! Nailed all my trades
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Got lucky…that’s all. For some reason I love nice round number 2550, 2600, etc.

  • Tomcat

    ALL???

    That is great Julie!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    put that in your log. pull it out on the ‘bad weeks’.

  • HD

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff9e15152fb13c91339c5a48f91b1bbf92857e806a0ea98e7c70d00faac5fe9f.png
    Old school highlights. Check out the candles on the 50DMA and the 200DMA. Always worth noting.

  • Julie

    Yeah TC Nailed them all TC You Have A Great Weekend Too !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My notes say price action between 50 & 200 are typically choppy, indecisive.

  • Tomcat

    What I find interesting is volume is waning since Monday.

  • Julie

    GG TC Chief and everyone now getting the minor pullback referenced in a post below. Expect another leg up when the minor pullback complete. Mentioned 2653 for the second leg up and GG has 2666 but first must get above 2630 which is a 50% retracement and upper boundary of the 10 min Ichi Cloud Shown SPX 10 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6689afd8bcb004bbcc2530cb7b3cc04e4dffa4b71b2d0b4e93f58b69b14f5ac4.png

  • HD

    2630 new midpoint, same analysis.

  • BobbyLow

    Congrats Julie

  • Julie

    Please refresh as I had a miss type 2653 not 2630 for the second leg up
    JULIE

  • Edgy

    Big, Richard Rawlings “Woooo!” For that BTFD. I hope you rode that! Just bummed I had to step away and stayed neutral for that. I could have doubled my day in 1/5 the time!

  • Julie

    Thanks BL Planning my trades and trading the plan BL Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    50 points on the ES (2550-2600). Red on GASO entry 1.71.

  • Tomcat

    Hold on Julie, another hour to go.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I love GAS buddy. I use it on my road trips to plot out my gas stops and costs. Works great.

  • Julie

    HD I use the 233 ema and the bounce today almost exactly off the 233 ema
    HD have A Great weekend
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Yup!

  • Julie

    HD we are on the same page
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Nice! well we just saw HWB that rally from LOD. It keeps working so why not.

  • HD

    excellent!

  • Julie

    The bounce today right off the 233 ema. I love my Ichi cloud and exp fib moving averages . Also the failure at 2727 which was the daily baseline (21) SPX Still have 2450 (weekly upper cloud boundary and daily 377 ema) as my target Shown SPX daily chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37561957e1f4d1bc3eba2091b261d76fe1c6fe4e23290fa6fbb095b37433da34.png JULIE

  • Edgy

    Today was a shakeout day

  • HD

    outstanding! Fibs. 30 handles already off HWB

  • BobbyLow

    MMA? I guess I never want you to be mad at me. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Unreal! 2630+ Flat

  • Julie

    SPX here we go up into the 2630 as shown in post below 10 min chart. The minor pullback now the advance This is fun. Looks corrective IMO
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    15 years ago…maybe
    Now I hardly get mad…bored sure…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Nice call HD. Hope you banked some coin.

  • Julie

    GG I like a nice glass of beer. I drink it out of a straw. I usually drink a glass of red wine daily after dinner
    JULIE

  • HD

    Thx Lucky too πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    HD Not luck Planning the trade and trading the plan. If wrong not wrong long
    JULIE

  • HD

    good trade to u too Julie! seeing it puke 25+ handles already kinda confirms some wave wanky. Will save that for another time.

  • Lugman

    Wait, buyer of ITM puts?

  • Julie

    SPX Bumping right up into the 10 min upper cloud boundary Yeah ! Looks like a corrective 3 waves up Again showing SPX 10 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d8f75b9f4fc4f87ab602af7877d3169491f5a2c1c322e0bbd20bb7d8ebdedd2.png

  • BobbyLow

    Hey TC my long positions in UCO and OIH closed in the Green today and are up a temporary .37 R. I’m holding over the weekend and will add some more next week if it looks like there’s any legs to this move. It’s been a good week even though I took profits too early on my short crude.

  • Tomcat

    So what is next Julie?

  • Tomcat

    You and I (L $RB) both BL.

  • Julie

    Chief – GG – BL – TC – HD – Edgy – Sharon – Mary – RW – Ronebadger – Yoda and Everyone Have A Nice Safe Weekend !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    You too Julie!

  • Julie

    TC There is some strong volume on today’s bounce. But right now the bounce looks corrective i.e. 3 ways going up into the 10 min upper cloud boundary AND the 60 min Cloud baseline (21) and 60 min 21 ema.and a 50% retracement shown on both 60 min and 10 min charts. Ok TC Now IMO if it goes higher up to the 60 min 55 or 89 ema’s matching the 60 min lower and upper boundaries then an impulse up could be developing. If an impulse up is developing then a horse of a different color developing. However the overall picture is either an ABC from 2872 is occurring with a target 2450 or we have completed an impulse down to the daily 233 ema and now a larger corrective bounce up to approx. 2727 then another dump. We should know early next week. My personal preference is that today’s bounce is complete i.e. a 3 wave correction up to the 60 min 21 ema and further down we go to 2450 . Again 2450 is the weekly Ichi Cloud upper boundary and the daily 377 ema is approx. 2437
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPY 60 min chart showing the 50% corrective bounce up into the 60 min 21 ema and baseline (21) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e9a882c705638ef1874c60a0871e49ad7cb1a6a107da0caf07a59ec8f796e55.png

  • Julie

    EDIT SPY not SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX 10 min chart Showing more clearly the corrective 3 wave advance up into the 50% retracement and 10 min upper cloud boundary. Again this advance matches the 60 min 21 ema and baseline (21) Shown SPX 10 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9571ea00005790b110b8b425f66dc89f9794492fbb1ce08487db8ab8143a4763.png

  • Nate

    After entering a short at the beginning of the day, in the past I would have been completely destroyed by that massive wave of buying. With the Zero, it was easy to see reasons to be cautious of a potential reversal, and ultimately see evidence that the buying interest was so great that it was worth taking a conservative long position which is now firmly in the green. In the past, I would have held my short and lost money on it, and missed the long altogether. Instead I was able to tighten my stop to make a nice profit on the short and likewise on the way up.

    Seriously, give it a try! Thanks for helping me make some profits Mole, this is so much more fun than guessing!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FnRnKHS5ds

  • Julie

    Nate Mole AKA Chief does a great job. He works hard on the weekend for us too ! His work is greatly appreciated !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah yeah – I corrected it sorry. Calls of course πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks Julie – I’ll do it for people like you πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Spread the word!

  • ridingwaves

    there is no choice…..the Siths have made that abundantly clear…
    the sheeple are now part of the problem…..

  • ridingwaves

    Chinese New Years next week will allow the boys to max out any pump…Market closures are 15, 16 19 for Shanghai, 16,19 for Hong Kong…

    I see a big pump coming…

  • Wave_surfer

    Your chart makes it look like a 5 of wave C just finished, which may be the case.

  • Wave_surfer

    I agree. Although possible, I don’t see significant continued down movement without some bounce as likely. Then again, it did do a 4% or 5% bounce in the 2nd half of today. That is a lot! Was that enough of a bounce to resume going down on Monday?
    It looks like you wrote this right before a strong 5% move up. Nice timing!

  • Wave_surfer

    sounds smart. Bond prices have fallen and so a bounce on Monday would not be a surprise at all.

  • daverg

    darkest hour, GREAT movie

  • Edgy
  • Julie

    Two major distribution days ($NYDNV:$NYUPV greater than 9) within 5 trading days means most likely a short term rebound but after the rebound more selling JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/993195784c5bfa2119c2507d76a5ec0b45d01460a621323ba381cd55b580485a.png

  • Julie

    Credit Yong Pan above post
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield weekly would parallel that expectation.

    if the 2013, and late 2016 median can hold, so should 2018.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63362470613

    -GG

  • Julie

    USO Daily chart down to 89 ema ; lower cloud boundary : consolidation (congestion zone) and oversold. Strong volume by price zone also Very strong and increasing selling volume on the pullback. May play an expected bounce to a lower high But prefer shorting a lower high JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a9f9fdc04638f2d0af5122f96a40ee8bcc3b02fc12c6d65d2a596d59833574d.png

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ivan – all those indicators – do you really need them? People are often shocked (or outright offended) I would propose this, but I have an inkling you would be able to read the price action the same with barebones candle chart.

  • Wave_surfer

    Interesting..
    On Friday afternoon, stockcharts.com member analysis said, “To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this may not be the beginning of the end of the current stock correction. But a rebound from here could be the end of its beginning.”
    Is someone here a professional writer/analyst at stockcharts? Or is a writer a lurker here? or was it just coincidence/group think?

  • Julie

    Hi Wave Surfer Just checking some charts before sleep. TLT will be interesting tomorrow (Monday)
    JULIE

  • Julie

    The general consensus is the 10 year yield is going to go up. Way too many traders thinking that. and way too many on one side of the boat. The financial media is all over that too Me I am going to take the other trade just like the Denver hedge fund that took the other side of short vol
    JULIE

  • Julie

    TLT Weekly Chart Oversold weekly and daily charts at a support and lower Keltner channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3839c7063b264490ab71eeddae0860b5ca472f08ecd7e853ad921d15a4029803.png

  • Wave_surfer

    Yep! I can easily see it go either direction. It will be interesting to see how it resolves itself. It could get interesting if interest rates keep climbing.

  • Julie

    I know you and I will be watching
    JULIE

  • Julie

    It is about 11;15 p.m. in Montana so time for sleep Wave Surfer you have a nice evening
    JULIE

  • Julie

    EXAS Better bounce here Oversold. Down to lower channel ; gap support and 233 ema Shown EXAS Daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/108b29702f26a4c14d41e8ca0548db2d43c416461a82a217c06a1778602538cb.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III