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The Horsemen Of Systemic Instability
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The Horsemen Of Systemic Instability

by The MoleJanuary 16, 2019

Fellow steelrat Evilisasevildoes just mused in the previous thread that the market was weird. I’m not sure if he’s referring to just this morning or if it’s a more general observation. If it’s the latter why should we be surprised? Although we pride ourselves of being primarily system traders trained to ignore the daily onslaught of neck hair rising clickbait we would be foolish to not recognize the fact that the political situation on both sides of the Atlantic is increasingly becoming unglued. And clearly over time constant systematic insecurity breeds market insecurity.

Which over the past few years has breathed massive volatility into the forex market. Pull up a daily chart of any of the four major horsemen (sorry snowflakes, horseperson sounds like crap), which in the given order are: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/GBP and you see what I mean.

Flash crashes followed by whipsaw galore. Now the forex market has always been known to be volatile, which is why retail traders love it, but what we’ve seen over the past few years combined is in a completely different league.

So yes, markets are weird and will continue to be weird as long as entrenched power structures in the West continue to ignore vast swaths of their populations and follow their own respective agendas. The past decade can be nicely summarized by just that – desperate attempts to keep the status quo in power whilst kicking the can further down the line.

Quite frankly I’m surprised things did not already come to a point a long time ago. And a polarized populace who increasingly feels unrepresented not surprisingly is rapidly shifting from the center of the Overton window towards the fat tails.

And with that comes increasing risk of conflict, violence, and in some instances perhaps civil war. Market participants frankly cannot be blamed for becoming worried when being faced with doomsday scenarios on a daily basis. The combined result of this has been heightened volatility throughout 2018, which apparently is going to extend far into 2019 – and perhaps beyond.

The medium term panel on the EUR/USD is a great example of why great setups fail in highly volatile sideways markets. If you consider the recent spike high which looked like it was to merely descend lower for a ‘last kiss goodbye’ of the 100-day SMA – but then sliced through it like butter and continues to drop.

This type of discretionary setup is one of the highest probability trades I know and it works well over 75% of the time. You all should know as I post these setups on a recurring basis. I do it because they work well and have the side benefit of producing large outlier short (and long) squeezes.

When setups like these start to increasingly fail (like they did in 2018 – thus leading me into becoming more stringent when picking setups) then that is highly reflective of market sentiment as it is expressed in more realized volatility.

Having to become more stringent when it comes to setups is frustrating, especially if one just so happens to run a trading blog catering to trigger happy retail traders demanding their pint of blood on a regular basis ๐Ÿ˜‰

So here’s one I do feel good about, mainly because it looks so very scary. The daily does not look like a reasonable long setup which is why I don’t expect many people to go long here. And admittedly the odds are 50/50 at best.

BUT if you look at that pinched BB on the hourly you’ll realize that the USD/JPY has rapidly shifted from a highly volatile state to a more normalized one, which has caused the hourly Bollinger to become very pinched.

So fireworks are to be expected and I want in. Price is about to breach that upper BB and I’m in the annoying habit of following the easy direction of price. So long it is with a stop < 108. If it fails – no hay problema – because the spike low that follows will be one sweet entry opportunity, albeit not guaranteed (see EUR/USD above).

Slow going on the equities side and 1.5R locked in at this point – expecting more if this thing deigns to finally get out of the gate. NOT that a slow advance is a bad thing – quite to the contrary.

Update on the gold campaign – meh! Dollar is back on the rise and it seems that the only thing driving PMs these days is the Dollar. May as well just play the USD/JPY directly. Oh right – we are ๐Ÿ˜‰

My crude campaign was stopped out last week at 2R, not sure if I posted this. Good for you if you’re still holding this, but it’s time to roll it into March. Crude is annoying like that and forces us to roll every single month.

That’s all for now. Have fun but keep it frosty.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    I think he is a she…evilisasevildoes,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Word.

    Most evil is female in kind.

  • StockTalker

    Squeeze some more

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm..removed again….impetuous rodents.

    Reply was “Eve ….First Speculator.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ha ha ha. I’m too fast.
    it was good, but waaay too preachy at the end.
    not appropriate for a morning kick off.

    https://www.amazon.com/Unveiling-Satan-True-Identity-Revealed/dp/1890967122

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Goldman hedgies,
    still haven’t touched upper bound.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GVIP&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p2762083444c

  • StockTalker

    BKX up significantly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a little better than XLF.

  • ridingwaves

    bofa earnings beat….

  • StockTalker

    Earnings should be coming to a close soon.

  • Sp00nman

    Not much to say lately, but just a big round of applause to the bulls. https://media.giphy.com/media/NnGGHE0muVqpO/giphy.gif

  • ridingwaves

    Daily is not overbought yet, hourly has been running OB since arrow, GS also had earnings beat….could get to 99 but needs to pass that red line..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7151312f629f85d7f00702229d22fe141a2dd3f5c54df7d4e5c52845e8ef7b96.png

  • Ted

    They have just started.

  • ridingwaves

    bears could do QB sneak here before opex….lots of guys in that photo, basketball game for sure

  • StockTalker

    GS reported as well.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….I’m unloading those labu calls pretty soon here…

  • ridingwaves

    be berry berry quiet, we’s hunting some rabbits
    ridingwaves 8 days ago
    VHC, 3 judge panel hearing oral arguments today on patent infringement of Apple that judge has ruled in favor of VHC for 550 million and royalties…..due diligence and tight stop required, short ratio at 30%…..they could buy the company for less I believe…..in at 3.07…..stop at 2.93

    risk – reward compelling…with frog ass water tight stop….

    update-Appeals sided against Apple, 400 million just for one series of phones….shorts came in hard today, 27 short ratio…..target 8-9 and then 12 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6080ac44cdf78455237c6f1af77f0ff0dea140c2e2cb02e500e96aa06f8692d7.png

  • HD

    Some EWโ€™rs put a 2-4 TL on the rally now.

    Interpret as you see fit.

  • ridingwaves

    might be overbought now….I’m seeing profit taking in some bio symbols today after hitting 2 month high….good trading….

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves

    on second thought, nowhere near overbought on daily…OB on hourly…I have half riding still but blew it by taking 1/2 off at 43….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8973810a0ba473a44e15397ccd969769989ef92c22e5c6ee52b46ed91c56ac31.png

  • Ted

    Most if not all the major indexes have attained their 50 day sma. IWM may finish the day on the north side of the Keltner channel on the daily. If the bears can’t inflict damage today the tape is going to look very bullish to me. Mole likes the USD/JPY trade. That is also a nod to equities in my book. The next stop could be the 200 day sma. Forgive me Mole for posting this article but I found it quite interesting.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-16/shocked-us-one-bank-spots-career-ending-divergence-market?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+

  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s going to need to be a lot of justification somewhere for the bulls, sure.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nice to see all the moving averages. (ribbon twist)

    remember, at some point, support becomes ceilings.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Ted

    Look what happens when price gets between the two channels, Keltner and BB. I’ve noted the result with green arrows. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/179923f63a424ef450cc0329065511f489fedd2ab4df4612394465a4de1f970f.png

  • StockTalker

    Added to long /NQ

  • Ted

    I mis spoke below. The qqq and iwm have regained the 50 day sma. The dow and S&P have not.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ballsy.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    can you explain 2-4 TL? please

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry about all the typos – just made appropriate corrections.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I interpret EWT as noise ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My bad!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    bdsi ๐Ÿ™‚

  • TimeToPanic

    Added to my QQQ puts. Nice daily candle developing.

  • Ted

    Evilisasevildoes has said so herself.

  • Mark Shinnick

    My suspicion is more squeezing that most have estimated.

  • ridingwaves

    go go go…..wall of worry rally with govt. shutdown in play……Feb. might be good for shorting…NG is still in play…..spike coming

  • Ted

    Agree it’s do or die today.

  • TimeToPanic

    Bradley turn date tomorrow.

  • ridingwaves

    thursday would be good day to opex down…
    BXK is getting some love on his vix instruments right now but it will not last long me thinks….

  • Ted

    Cold here in Georgia for the rest of the month. I know Julie is going to laugh at this one.
    https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USGA0631:1:US

  • BKXtoZERO

    Booo

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stick with price…try not to frontrun things like that.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Who’s Bradley

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX hanging in there…. :-/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Got my own first triggers today….so scalped a bit.

  • TimeToPanic

    All indices are now hitting downtrendlines off the highs in October.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I numbered my feathers as a back up plan

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX-0pvkEio0&feature=youtu.be

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….and everyone else sees that too. :/

  • TimeToPanic

    Google Bradley Sideograph.

  • ridingwaves

    100sma holding up on daily but rollover in play with opex also….lets see if the bears can grind it down to 3.30…..Obought on hourly working it self off
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da865a9361086221087ff87d6e3aaf7c8193829365ae7384ea2861112760ca21.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Hence the selling.

  • HD

    If you think the rally is impressive just a reminder the Dec crash happened in 15 days. SPX has only recovered โ€˜618

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    thanks for that info. glad I don’t read much financial news. an ordinary investor with out a stable reliable news source can get very lost out there. thanks to Sir Mole and this blog for all of your experiences in doing real trading by the numbers and ignoring the news. The fake news is getting more and more fake every day. very sad there are so many uncaring liars floating around bringing financial harm to other people.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves
  • randomuser6789

    She and Julie had a girl-power love fest a few days ago.

  • StockTalker

    Liftoff, Look at GS gooooo

  • TimeToPanic

    The sheep are all in bull mode again and bears have pretty much capitulated on Twitter. Everyone is on the same side again.

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Banks are behind this SPX ramp BAC up over 7% in a gap up and Go ! SPX up exactly into it’s 55 ema RW nice trade GS
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Nicely done, learned a long time ago not to trade against the banks. Them and the feds have all the money.

  • TimeToPanic

    Evening Mole. Did you see this link I shared on some vol action yesterday?

    Any thoughts?

    (Edit, just realised the Twitter account is locked, here’s a screencap):

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a076fbfb1a97139f34d5322375117f7235eacbe41346ba7272d6eaf21cce30f6.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Dr Michael Bury eh, what a loser!

  • ridingwaves

    TTP, your bias is so downside, you need a new moniker….it should be something like Dr Doom Digging Bank Account Evaporation….or DDDBAE for short

  • TimeToPanic

    I have no bias my friend, just a pragmatic view based on thousands of hours of research.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • TomW4

    Still short Julie?

  • ridingwaves

    I took profit, didn’t see the move up to here…..next trade…thinks for reminder….best of luck in your trading this year….

  • Ted

    You may have something here. Bonds are strong today and the vix is up along with equities. Could be a start here.

  • StockTalker

    I would too on a move like that. Best to take profit and watch then to see your profits drizzle away.

  • StockTalker

    Gime a tuna on rye

  • ridingwaves

    my first thought is the FED has millions of hours of research and blew the subprime call like a mofo….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Tom Closing basis above 55 ema will cover I had a small probe then added a little. Down approx 2%
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    The Feds are IYI, I have skin in the game, big difference.

  • StockTalker

    Bears market is just around the corner:) Must be patient here, according to my work we are in a retrace.

  • ridingwaves

    I wish you success in your trading this year…..I really could care less about indexes, they are one big crowded trade today on both sides…..but I must admit I dip in both sides too….

  • Jason13

    Comment on volume. Markets donโ€™t go up on the presence of buyers, it goes up in the absence of sellers…and that may take awhile, so timing it is very difficult. You may eventually be right but only after youโ€™ve been reemed up the behind.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Below a declining 50 when they head for the exits and trap door It’s all at once and often times difficult to nail a short entry
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    True dat.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason you are correct about volume and lack of sellers…. Main reason I am standing pat. Also DAX ; EUFN and DB I am sure the Chief is watching these
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    anyone watching lumber or sugar? I think Lumber is going to fill the gap
    these low rates have MM’s drooling over a push higher….

    Mole what say you?

  • ridingwaves

    A pullback to the 100sma would be sweet entry, break up over that line and katy bar door…I promise no more today….atmospheric river starting to push in….I need to go build ark…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99bd84a77d551c3d13eceed5ce3c46053dbf5f789a717d132180f64ea95792c1.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today a gap up then consolidates and VIX behaving in a non confirming manner as noted below by Ted. ? ? ? could become very interesting very quickly. Still a rising wedge pattern again with bonds being bought today as noted by Ted also HMMM ! Standing Pat
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    post one of those fist shakers

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    IWM is coiling on the 5 min. chart. Should be the most likely target for the bears. Let’s see what happens. It is not currently above it’s 50 day ema.

  • HD

    Whatโ€™s EWT?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The bulls should be taking profits soon Ted. Let’s see when this occurs if selling is excacerbated V shaped rallies can be dangerous i.e. gone too far too fast
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Below 2597 will break below the lower trend line of the rising wedge subject to change
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    if the spx gets back on it’s seasonal track, it should be a good year
    third years in the presidential cycle have been up 15 of 17 years since 1950 avg gain 16%, needs to get above the down trend line

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5210ac1e257a4967ee603f90b236a853814d6c4cbdab28bc4f3c85892827397.png

  • TimeToPanic

    It did fail the 3 (edit, 4) previous times though…..?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    perhaps there’s another line, hidden.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Max As noted in a post I believe last week to watch USO and oil for a possible I H&S pattern developing. Oil bottoming will help the bulls
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic
  • StockTalker

    Wtf

  • maxcherry

    its just amazing what you can get people to do

  • ridingwaves

    whats funny is all the bullishness when the fed said we are moving aggressively to raise rates at start of 2018 and wala, big moves down, now in 2019-the fed is saying were going to back off and all the bearishness to start the year……bamm….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max $VIX must go below 16 too
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    even better is this
    https://wine-fight.com/

  • maxcherry

    1997 through 2000 vix never closed below 16 and the spx rose 100% if it did it once it can do it again

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e23a4d95fd83c552d8d2ae9acec0153129e135800d4d44de528f52aafd08814a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max The last two bear markets 16 was the floor I feel 16 more relevant
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie. What is your cover point? Thanks

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Closing basis the 55 ema for now But there are circumstances that I see i.e. holes in the dike Down about 2% not really concerned
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Elliot Wave Theory
    or, sometimes,
    Elliott Wave Theorist – the Newsletter published by Pretcher

  • TomW4

    Hi Julie, do you mind putting the levels when you mention the MA/EMA’s? Thanks!

  • randomuser6789

    The VIX and TVIX are both not on board with the action in equities.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sur Tom 2609 very important 2639 – 2643 ; 2627 2620 2616 2609 2597 2590 2579 2573 2560 2530 2506 2482
    JULIE

  • Ted

    That 5 min. burst also saw a big drop in aud/jpy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Is with or without clothes on ? LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    opex – part of equation

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The sweet spot … Overbought ; RSI approx 56 ; up into it’s 55 ema MACD center line test momentum subsiding along with volume Let’s see what happens now guys
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s more normal than not.

  • maxcherry

    spx due for a pullback, this wedge reminds me of 1987, after the crash

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d953908ee30138e171ac7e5ff449311839713f18939e63f6c1fc43b7ba3e134c.png

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As stated below Max a break below 2597 will bust the lower trend line Yup a rising wedge Going to be very interesting Standing Pat
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    i think anyone looking for a new low is going to be disappointed

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, I’m looking for a pullback, and been taking some pain (entered too early), but am patient. Markets don’t go straight up or down. Bulls need to suck in more bears to propel this thing much higher, if that’s where we’re headed.

  • Ted

    I agree with you. Looking for a pullback to get long. A test of the 20 day SMA would be nice.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max I see a retest of 2346 If it does occur and on less volume that would be bullish High volume lows and highs are usually retested
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    i agree and the 20 dma is something i follow, especially the number of days is trades above it or below

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted 2482 – 2486 would definitely be a target to watch
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    No selling on zero here. Not sure I trust this drop

  • Sp00nman

    You talking about after the bell? I’m not sure the zero “works” with the market not open. Yes futures are trading but market closes at 4pm EST.

  • Wave_surfer

    I wonder if it will go as low as 2525?
    Maybe that is too much of a dip.
    There is a wall of worry to climb!
    or
    Will it climb more so that when a dip comes, it will dip down to 2625?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes longer term – but when the wedge breaks the first move is down and sometimes large

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    think that the “crowd” is looking the other way – didn’t you hear Cramer pronounce that the “BEAR” market ended on Christmas Eve?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/cramer-says-the-bear-market-ended-on-christmas-eve.html

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes catracho A rising wedge is like an ending diagonal A breakdown can be fast and furious esp below a declining 50
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes and the bulls are feeling very comfortable – so ripe for a move the other way.. as you said a test of the lows is probable – and key will be how it behaves there

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    -he’s all over the place, stocktwits, they are all looking lowe,r all the EW perma- bears are looking for a crash

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG How about drawing an upper trend line showing the SQUEEZE ! Could be OUCH !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    once straight line per day is enough. whew.

    “I only do curves”.
    https://icdn6.digitaltrends.com/image/2019-porsche-911-gt3-rs-weissach-ny-auto-show-unveil-720×720.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QEKdsEfLY0

    “a fool and his money..”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    convertible. Arizona sunny winters. ha ha

    http://images.gtcarlot.com/pictures/956964.jpg

  • TimeToPanic

    Aye, the bulls are mocking the bears, yet the trend of lower highs/low is very clear, and there was no panic selling, no capitulation at all in December. The bulls will feel real fear over the next few weeks:

    Dow -15%
    SPX -15%
    NQ -22%

    All targets off the H&S.

  • TimeToPanic

    Mole, boss, was that of interest to you? Your area of expertise.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Plenty of curves there LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP IMO a dead cat bounce into the declining 55 ema. Typical of a bear market rally. A strong rally enticing people that the bear or correction is over THEN …. Whamo ! The pattern a bearish rising wedge IMO in a bear market. Bearish patterns in a bear market have a very high probability of playing out. Bullish patterns in a bear market have a tendency to fail or not reaching their potential target My two cents TTP
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Synopsis of Carl Swenlin of stockcharts
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m sure many of you will find this an interesting read, and it may make you reassess a view that all is rosy in the year 2019. It ain’t.

    http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2019/1/8/a-monetarist-perspective-on-current-equity-markets.html

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m with you Julie, except I think the dip will at least re-test the lows (edit: within 3 weeks), and my most likely scenario is a bit lower for all indices, except NQ, which I expect to hit the rising trendline out of 2009, which also matches its H&S target, and is also a big fib. Good luck to us.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    now, RSI is above 50, so that means no big bear calls from Julie..
    can I get an Amen on that?…LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Other world markets now under performing SPX notably $DAX and Nikkei SPX the lone wolf and will follow. SPX the defensive sectors have been leading which is not good.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed. Tough to get a good read on the situation. Most of January has been like this thus far actually. Hopefully not a template for this year.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow, what a beauty!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Germany is fucked, guys. Believe me – I read German and what I’m seeing in the comment sections all across is scary. Not being reported by the MSM which especially in Germany has become worse than the fucking Pravda during Soviet times.

  • Ted

    I don’t see that. QQQ and small cap are not defensive.

  • TimeToPanic

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/64KplpSE/

    Trannies at their neckline, and is that daily candle a scary one, I honestly don’t know?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No GG RSI at 60 corresponding with a rise to the 55 ema and MACD centerline test from below.RSI Rule … RSI 80 – 40 in a bull market and RSI 60 – 20 in a bear market. Weekly RSI going below 33.33 is indicative of a bear market
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the inside scoop. I will contact the engineer I know who left to move to Germany

  • TimeToPanic

    Ted, QQQ fell 23% off the highs, in the first leg of this bear. Don’t be fooled by this little rally, it’s got another 20% down from here pronto IMO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nope GG Refer to post above in a reply to you !
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic
  • Jason13

    Yessir!! Thatโ€™s my kinda car!

  • Ted

    it very well could do that. I was just making the comment that i did not agree that defensive names were leading the comeback.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted .. The leading sectors SPX are XLV – XLU and XLRE which are defensive sectors
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Socialism is done in France. The movement just getting started
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You know self defense, speak the language.
    ..lots of lonely women up there who could use your skillz.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Total rejection GG I do not like the front bumper … Prefer the 356 Definitely ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Some are very hot but in general German women are a PITA these days. Not very feminine in comparison to other countries. That’s my personal opinion of course, many will disagree.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’ll be back in no time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    party POOPer.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    (jaw drops)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    33.33, daily or weekly? it’s all over (as they would say in TOP GUN) by then.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    could be macular degeneration.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of two main possibilities, yes. Anything is possible as long as we are pinned below the inflection point near ES 2650.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Some friends of ours visited Germany recently. They said checkpoints everywhere by armed security on roads etc. ? ? ? If true Yipes ! No place to live or visit
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG No roll bar either … You don’t expect a girl to drive this THING ! Get real GG ! LOL! Now a 356 Yeah !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no, I expect a girl to jump in, sit down, and keep her mouth closed.
    *I* do the driving.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Very first stop light Girl jumps out ! See ya later ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if you want safety, drive one of these.
    come to think of it, you could live out of it.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/NIVj2uSd2IM/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    stop light in Montana. I would expect only ONE.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • TimeToPanic

    FYI, as a Christian, I expect to be coming to live in the US in the years ahead, maybe 5-10 years time, the UK is going hard left eventually.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Only takes one … Color the girl gone ! LOL!
    JULIE#

  • Ted

    So is the Northeast and West. Move to the Bible Belt.

  • TimeToPanic

    That’s the plan Ted, thanks.

  • Ted

    Golf is good but the skiing sucks.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A date when I was a senior in high school The boy drove up in a van. You should have seen the look on my dad’s face .LOL!
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I don’t ski, except on the water!

  • ridingwaves

    Mole, your take on Lumber and Sugar? much better setups playing out there than shorting right now….see chart below

  • ridingwaves

    definitely great to be a bull right now, so much bearishness here, I might have to go and throw all the R’s I’ve been making on a couple more pushes north…..the lows are in….stop the nonsense of a double bottom….

  • ridingwaves
  • Ted

    Was their a mattress in the back? No further questions. LOL

  • TimeToPanic

    You should put an arrow at the same point as today back in early 2018, then we’d know you’re not biased. Heh.

  • Wave_surfer

    Interesting. No comments. I wonder if this means I am too bullish for this crowd, but still too bearish for the market. Maybe it will do even less of a dip than I think.

  • Ted

    Check out Lake Chatuge in North Georgia. The lake is in both Georgia and North Carolina. Better to live in Georgia tax wise. Mountains are nearby and one of my favorite golf courses, Brasstown Valley. Unfortunately, it”s 100 miles north of me.

  • Ted

    I’m looking for a dip below the 20 day sma. It might get the bears a little excited.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lookup rapey van.
    on second thought, just don’t.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey, turn your BPSPX log off. it’s just tacky.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/589d402c527f96620a509c4b5b3f8f15798684b24d38d6026a23421670e2a60b.png

    Let’s see if the bulls can unlock the house door.
    Turn on the lights, and make everything honky dory.
    3 months in the cold. Mercy.

  • ridingwaves

    TTP, I have made more good calls in the last 2 weeks then your favorite cycle dudes in the last year, btw I called the flash crash in december very well….please, I know you want the market to destruct and cause pain to all humans but faith should help you thru the good times….your broken record meme and so far setups are just losses. No need to suck newbies into your doom and gloom index investing, so far it stinks……when your right a couple times come back and preach it….your thesis is boring as hell…

  • BKXtoZERO

    This could also be a top tick post mentality here……. price will be our guide. It’s amazing how opinions change with price. Something unbelievable at first becomes quite the opposite. We shall see…………

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Texas is great to live in in the northern part. Don’t know about the area close to Mexico. moved to Irving,Texas 1957, 1st year of high school. tried San Francisco 1987 to 1998, It was okay back then, I would not ever consider moving there again.

    Just returned from Virginia Beach. It was okay for a time, but too close to the ocean. Especially when N Korea was such a threat with the subs. Dallas is in the north and where I am today. I feel very safe and comfortable here and most of the people that I know really well, live here. Good Luck on your search. I have been to the UK many times. It is sad to think about the country changing so much. I visited a town known as Manning Tree.It was nice and quiet there.

    Manningtree is a town and civil parish in the Tendring district of Essex, England, which lies on the River Stour.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    C’mon RW Join the chorus .. All together now … “Red Pig Down”… “Red Pig Down ”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Since the October decline the daily 89 ema has stopped all bounces. Just a few points away
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV and myself going to send BA to the promised land too Support 350.75 and 5 ema 349.55 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f4cb7e61101ab64ef79bc08c986f12589b56f71974a885a44eb90261b51988a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember the chart and comments NYSE New Highs AND $NYSI is below 0 How about the FANG stocks ? They accounted for something like 30+ % of the SPX advance in this bull market When the leaders fail ….. !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys What is really too much In the state of Washington the aggrieved spouse in an adulterous affair can sue. Jeff Bezos can be sued by the husband of whoever he was sleeping with. Deep pockets …. What an idiot ! He shows me nothing .. Like our Chief says a despicable person .. Another man’s wife. .. Sicko !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What is going to take the place of the FANG stocks ? Mickey Dees or LULU. or Ultra Beauty LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Restaurants and Bars going to take the place of the FANG Stocks LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CAT IMO Pattern a triangle consisting of 3 wavers. A triangle is a continuation pattern and the trend is down. 61.8% retracement ; downtrend line and fib fan line overbought. Houses are going to be cheap in Peoria IL JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a47da0c0035e2caf134e5998feffa3409fc445bdfa51e95c41214c5f02aebf76.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5700c9b1a5c5968b35c77c8042707e34daa7a8b39cd586931c50f85ac5528a1.png In a post below I stated the daily 89 ema has held all bounces since the October decline Here it is Guys JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Let’s see if the rails rollover at resistance overbought OBV unimpressive JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/20df55b72912c41a6b393d75e4805ed3d72c055b2bddc7320414e9b7b3227436.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Rails break below 2055 … Could get ugly
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    BKX, were in a bull stampede, sure a down day or 2 could arise but this blog so far is still overwhelmingly bearish, so I like my odds….plus I play 10K trades not just 1 index or 2…..so far your down 4R per your message and in a bearish this is manipulation stance….now your down again on second go around…..you need to expand your trading horizon….. Scott would giving you an earful right now…..heck he might have banned TTP as he hasn’t put up one setup and his bradley, zerohedge and cycle whisperer guru is just turning this place into a bear den…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    BKX… Hellooooooooooooooooooo

  • BKXtoZERO

    Put/Call Ratio is 0.6 right now so, ya…. probably more room to fall to .45-,5

  • BKXtoZERO

    also.. yes to the rest. I am down 4R and also some small stop outs that add up to another 1 or 1.5, yes, should be posting my charts. I got busy and also lazy. Basically VIX is touching a rally trendline here right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Off to sleep What a Day and week ! See ya tomorrow ! Have A Great night BK
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A lot more of his kind out there, and I’m referring to both men and women.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love the futures but most people here don’t seem to be interested so I stopped posting grains, sugar, and more exotic contracts. One of the main problems for retail traders is that many are unable to trade them with their trading accounts.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah if I went there today I would not recognize the country.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed, that’s one of the reasons I’m thinking of leaving. Although it’s kind of silly me saying that as I am literally surrounded by THREE ancient churches – one directly in front of me, two more less than 300 feet away. Mostly old people seem to be attending however.

    Although I grew up catholic in Austria I lost my faith as a young adult. Most recently however I have come to the realization that a nation without religion and faith in a higher purpose quickly loses its soul. Germany is a good example of this. Just look around when visiting some of the larger cities and compare the sites with the ones 100 years ago. Same in Paris and other European cities. We have massively regressed over the past century and are calling it ‘progress’. What a combination of hubris and arrogance!

    Populations that abandon their ancient faiths quickly end up replacing it with a substitute. However whatever that is depends on the popular culture of the time, which is constantly shifting and changing, especially today. In the end people find themselves uprooted, lonely, and depressed – despite iphones, high speed Internet, free pรธrn (or perhaps because of it), sexual liberties, etc. etc.

    People have never been this wealthy and secure since the dawn of time. Despite that a large percentage of people are depressed and addicted to drugs. Think about that fact and then ask yourself if we really have ‘progressed’ in the past 100 years.

    Honestly if i had a choice to take a time machine and go back to 1880 – never to return – I would do it. Yes, I would miss the Internet and all the modern conveniences. But I would spend the rest of my existence visiting European capitals with a huge smile on my face.

    Anyway, so I’ve restored my faith again and plan on being active in a small Christian community upon my return to the U.S.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure how many of you watch Vikings but if you recall King Ecgberht (Egbert) – he ruled over the ancient kingdom of Essex. Beautiful countryside… what most people don’t realize is that England was literally covered in ancient forests a millennia ago, much of it has been cut down.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Skiing obviously has priority ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Same idea except that you go downhill – hehe

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m thinking Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Any of you guys been there?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX 2 hour chart shows the indecision – tight range 11k – 10785 – above quite hefty resistance https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d53cd0173d63cc4d489d9c147a32764c6a641cb2f7054ca832391556f1a0dc04.png 11225 down trend channel – above that , larger up ahead.. below 10785 – test of lows