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Theta Burn
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Theta Burn

by The MoleFebruary 11, 2009

My portfolio was on fire today! Unfortunately not the way I like it –ย  instead I received a major dose of theta burn as today’s whipsaw made my OTM Feb SPY puts look like a Eucalyptus tree in Kinglake, Australia. Those buggers lost 80% of yesterday’s gain, despite a rather feeble bounce in equities. However, Mr. VIX dropped by a few points (this thing is broken lately) and that combined with some creative bid/ask pricing by the MMs did the trick. I’m still holding, if you must know – but in retrospect I probably should have covered yesterday night. What is it they always say about hindsight?

Seems like I’ll have to make a decision by Friday afternoon as I completely forgot that Monday is a trading holiday (President’s Day). So, the tape in the next two days will be key. If we push much higher from here I might have to cut and run and try my luck once more after the long weekend. Three days of inactivity will suck the life out of OTM Feb puts and unless the market continues on its trajectory downward tomorrow there is little gain in holding them. Did I mention I hate holidays? Seriously….

In a nutshell however – nothing really has changed. We expected a little bounce and today was actually quite mild – things could have gotten a lot uglier for the bears and maybe that’s what we’ll face tomorrow. The fib chart I posted yesterday is still valid, so stick with that. You might have noticed that the 23.6% fib was the line in the sand today – the bulls tried to breach it but failed. If we push up tomorrow – 842.5 is your friend. We also closed below 8000 on the DJI for the 2nd time in a row – last time that happened was in November. I actually thought about it and decided that it’s not that big of a deal unless we put some distance between us and that damn line. Seriously, it’s just a number but obviously it means a lot to the mouth breathers. I personally am more interested in large numbers in my profit column.

Anyway, I won’t post a full update today as it’s Wednesday and I frankly need a day off. I also feel a bit discouraged by that Zero vote but promise to return tomorrow once I’m done pouting – you damn leeches! ๐Ÿ˜‰

Cheers!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Fujisan

    Mole,

    First off, I would like to point out that your analysis is totally a world class and better than any other paid newsletters and services that I have ever seen.

    I totally agree with Yux's comments below that your greatest asset is this blog, your analysis, and the daily traffic. To take an advantage of this, here are some cash streams that you may like to consider:

    1. Monthly Membership Fee – charge a minimal monthly fee as a membership fee – maybe like $5~$10 to have an access to the blog.

    2. Weekly/daily access to your analysis – just like you categorize your comments, you could charge your analysis. This could be done in a daily/weekly newsletter type of format, or you could simply limit the members' access to analysis section.

    3. Ad/Banner – Why GOOG got so big? It's all coming from the web traffic and the ad revenue.

    4. Zero – this could be bundled with other services above.

    5. All of the above – you could set up a different level of membership (i.e., basic, intermediate, advance, etc.) and then give them an access based on the membership level.

    Just a little thought. Of course, it would be better if all these come for free (from a consumer's perspective), but if we spend $15 commmission for 10 options contracts, we should be able to afford a little fee for quality analysis.

  • CowboyTrader

    You could easily get $3 CPM (cost per thousand page views) for advertising – which at 2MM page views a month would be $6k – I know, peanuts compared to the positions you hold on a daily basis ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Keirsten

    Repost because I'm blonde and didn't know you had updated tonight.

    I rarely mention anything fundamental, but here goes a rarity. The government is running out of silver bullets now. Any run up on the stimulus took place this afternoon and they STILL couldn't get this thing to close over 8000. The vote will mean squat, and furthermore, if the House GOP gets cute and balks all bets are off on this useless piece of legislation anyway.

    Late afternoon eupohria from the mouthbreathers that free money is on the way, smart money knows it has to be paid for.
    I think this has to resolve one way or another

    http://tinyurl.com/bdtdku

    Bullish or Bearish?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&b=5&g=

  • molecool

    Pays for a kick-ass server though ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • prsguitars

    Mole,

    Humble leech here. Just a suggestion–

    Your zero is incredibly useful, however, your poll was $39/month or “No!”.

    I'd offer that if you considered $19/month or so. I'd gladly pay that, but perhaps that's just a subjective assessment of my cheapness (I'm a 22 year old EC major, independently trading). But the quality of your commentary and the Zero (plus the Turtle-esqe N-calc!) is supremely useful, and I wish there were another option beyond just “39$” or “No!”.

    You rock. Thanks for letting us leech for a bit longer… some of us really appreciate the assistance with direction in this Whipsaw territory.

  • Send Help

    Mole –

    You shouldn't feel bad about the Zero.

    Two things:

    One, consider how long the Option Addict built up a following based solely on bringing great trade ideas to the table week after week, month after month. The guy paid his dues and led many to the promise land long before he considered charging for his services. Then he brought Eric on board who is extremely skilled and only then did he go private.

    Second: Consider what you're actually offering. The Zero might look good for a trending market. But in fact, you have to expect most seasoned and skilled traders to want to see the Zero market tested for at least a solid year before most people would be compelled to pay for it – that seems obvious to me and I was surprised at how quickly you wanted to go private.

    Consider the marketplace. OA went private – I went along and later cancelled after they provided no real edge and we're only breaking even with their picks. Look at The Fly — he'll be going private in the next month or two – he's been public for over a year and built up a steady following of people who have make money from his picks – and consider the vast amount of good traders/tabbers he has on his site – it's just a more compelling sales pitch. Not that I'll pay for his site, I won't — but at least he's paid his dues.

    In summary, pay your dues. Throw out some picks that not every good trader is already looking at. Find another guy to bring on board who compliments your style but most importantly opens up dialogue around more good picks, entry and exit points, etc.

    You're suffering from too many people kissing your ass – it's not useful and it throws off your perspective. Tim's blog has become almost unreadable with all the ass kissing over there.

    Anyway — wishing you well. Like your style. Build up a site that offers some recognizable – bankable edge – and I'll sign up.

    Peace.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole, I hope you take my feedback the right way here: I have been where you are right now. Few days from expiration, OTM options, hoping for a big move…. It has *never* paid off when I planned and hoped for it. The only time it paid off was back in Nov… and even then I was holding onto call options till a few days before opex… and then on the final day at 12noon PT (when the massive reversal from 740 took place), I jumped into SKF, SRS OTM puts and minted money like crazy…. That play had a very good risk/reward ratio….

    What you are doing right now is what a ton of amateur options players (read suckers) do each month…. and it *never* pays off for them… There is a reason they say 90% of traders lose money and 99% of options traders lose money.

    If I were in your position, I wouldn't put a big portion (more than 10%) of my portfolio towards unhedged OTM options just a few days before expiration… I know that the potential upside is huge… but the downside is quick death…. May be you made loads of money in 2008 and are using some chunk of that and this is lottery ticket money for you, then its okay… But I wont do this with any sizable amount of money.

    I lost a ton of money in 2008 and since then I closely observe my emotions when place and closing trades and often analyze my emotion after a trade…. I sense that ever since Berk left, you have become a LOT more emotional around trading…. May be your emotional outcries here are only for humor and fun…. but if they are for real, then it seems that greed and fear seems to have taken you over to a much greater degree than I have ever seen you before…

    My sincere apologies if anything here pinched you or bothered you.

  • ZigZag

    I've called in someone who's speciality is putting out Theta fires….Have no fear, Theta-Man is here!

    http://tinyurl.com/acltln

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    We need a news article to slice us through the 800-825 zone… Once that happens, we will reach 700 in no time.

  • http://www.chartsandcoffee.com chartsandcoffee
  • fuzzygreysocks

    http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFNtebnd

    10-YEAR NOTE
    issue date & yield
    02-17-2009 – 2.818
    11-17-2008 – 3.783
    08-15-2008 – 4.075

    http://tinyurl.com/dztj32

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Zig Zag man – can you tell me how to interpret your charts… what is your min and max downside target and projected dates?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    TLT Bullish, if you can cite reasons for tutesNbanks to pile into treasuries.
    http://tinyurl.com/bc8rrv
    TBT/TNX bullish if anyone thinks magic money is going to come off of the sidelines and into equities.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • PatrickK

    I voted YES, ABSOLUTELY!

    I would gladly pay your suggested price for the Zero… you mentioned that you were doing some coding on Ninja. Are you still working on that? I have Ninja on my PC.

    Ninja has a way for subscription proprietary indicators to be applied, in real time.

    Thank you for the work on this great indicator! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • unSane

    Yo Mole, don't feel bad about the Zero, it's YOU we love.

  • BalaB

    Sorry Dude

  • PatrickK

    ROTFL… that's hilarious. I knew we could count on you.

  • Keirsten

    So true, so true. They've been shaking the trees from one to another and back again for a long time now, I think that wedge is getting tighter and tighter for that game to continue to be played. They'll make sure the debt is covered at the expense of more 401K money going down the toilet. Methinks unwashed masses with no 401Ks and pitchforks would be worse to deal with if TSHTF than nice working stiffs losing their retirement.

  • PatrickK

    … sorry, +1

  • Keirsten
  • the_dark_lord

    molecool,

    I will truly sorry to see the zero go. If I had more time to get warm and fuzzy with it, I would probably have no problem paying. I think when we get back into a trending market, It is truly gonna be the shiznit. dont just put it to bed. MAybe you could take a lead from KD's forum and make it available to “Gold” donors or something like that. It seems a shame to just put it to bed for us leeches. Thanks for all your insight. I am truly amazed by sites like yours, TK's and to a lesser extent KD's. In five years, looking back I really think we will be thankful when all the mouth breathers are in the soup line. by the way RE: gold (I'm a big long time holder since around $250) and I am glod you got out of the way

  • molecool

    Is he actually riding an elephant penis?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    I think the banks are surreptitiously engaged in a Darwinian battle to stall aggressive lending (as opposed to active lending, per this morning's dog & pony show) allowing the mark to market kill as many smaller competitors as possible – and maybe a few large ones.
    “Too bad. So sad. Sux2B them. Bigger piece of the shrinking pie for me.”

    My evil a$$ believes there'll be continued contrived ineffectuallity in lending till the government figures out what to do next after “forcing unwanted TARP money” onto banks and making them lend it. Sorta. Kinda.

    “Looks here, Boss! I'z doin' sum'n, Boss! Looky! Looky!
    A$$holes & elbows, Boss!
    A$$holes & elbows!”

    A whole lotta movin' around, but still ain't sh!t getting done.
    I don't care.
    Just pour the d@mn $1.1T TARP+EconStim cash into the economy, wouldya?

  • molecool

    Of course I know all that mate – we are in a special moment of time. With that said – unless we drop tomorrow I'll cut those suckers.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Oh but the wonders of dollar cost averaging – you can buy so many more shares when the stock formerly @ $100 trades at a nickel. Those working stiffs will be fine. On the other hand, us unemployed stiffs are screwed,,,,Keirsten, you raise a good point re:the stimulus bill. Consider that today they reached an agreement on THE STIMULUS BILL and, on the heels of a 380 pt down day, which by itself should have been good for a bounce of 100+, they tweak out a meager 50 pt rally. That feels incredibly weak. Sell em'.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Oh, that IS excellent intel!
    Mucho gracias, K!

  • ZigZag

    Hi Mylife,

    The box goes out ten days, with the most probable of price falling within two days. Target on this can be anywhere inside the box, but I'm looking at $750 before any bounce. Stochastics, so far, are telling me lower.

    I'll be pissed if Theta-Man shows up late ๐Ÿ™‚

  • ZigZag

    Yes he is..This how his tribe artificially inseminates elephants…LOL

  • molecool

    “Look at The Fly “

    Dude, I can't believe you are comparing me with this clown. His trading skills are horrendous – don't get me started….

    BTW, I don't think people are kissing ass over here – some of them might have expressed their gratitude as I have been calling the market's direction/gyrations since last August.

    “In summary, pay your dues. Throw out some picks that not every good trader is already looking at. “

    Are you SERIOUS?? My hit rate ranks among the best out there. Pal, I suggest you go back and trade Fly's picks.

    Good luck.

  • Vendrell

    I'm holding a biggie of Feb. 735's. I'll let you know how it goes.

    I think in a previous post you said you were holding 790's. The rules seem fairly simple: we shouldn't get much past 855 at the most (cut your losses at that point), and the potential for downside is more than 100 points in the next 6 sessions.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I got out of them this morning… and got into some 850 calls. doing okay so far. I see us going up. Honestly, the thing that I am struggling with the most is *what* will take us down? Now that more details on the Geithner plan have started emerging… that would be the carrot that would prevent us from going down.

    ________________________________

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Thanks for the explaination…. I can now make sense out of your graphs ๐Ÿ™‚

    ________________________________

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I sold the ones I held from last night – lost 40% of the profits.. Got into new ones (more OTM) and hedged them (not at the best point of the day though)… At this point, I am mostly hedged with a small position in FAS for any overnight pop in financials… I will dump the hedges and FAS if we start dropping OR if we hit 840s

    ________________________________

  • Vendrell

    Price dictates action.

    I do understand the desire for a fundamental storyline to push us down. I myself was hoping for a shocker like a large nation defaulting on their debt.

  • Peasant

    I visit this site mainly for the comments and analysis from everyone. The zero is great but seems a little slow in this choppy market.. I don't use it for this reason.

    On that note, here are a few trading ideas if anyone is interested. Some of the energy names have been on a nice, quiet run since December. I think this is due to gasoline prices increasing 35% since then while oil has traded relatively flat in the same period. The refiners are benefitting from this the most. Check out TSO, WNR, HOC, and even FTO, OXY, and HES. The integrated oils are also benefitting from the stronger margins in the refined products even though there oil revenues are decreasing. The increase in refining margins were already showing up in the 4th quarter numbers posted recently from several of these companies. The integrated oil cos. and refiners are creating more supply of oil by making less refining runs.

    I'm also starting to think that this market is not going to have another leg down like the one in Sept-October. Instead we'll drift sideways to lower for a long while with lots of chop that'll frustrate a lot of traders. Unless the bottom of oil falls out, the energy sector will continue to hold this market up.

    Other pockets of strength seem to be the ags and materials imported by China such as iron ore , coal, and fertilizer (RIO, MT, CPO, POT, CNX). Just my 2 cents. Good luck to everyone.

  • rhae

    Was watching the $VIX today, down over 4%… Last time it did that, there was a 1 day delay before an uppy run… Tomorrow could be a crap shoot

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Here's some contrarian evidence. Beanie's batwings… He hasnt confirmed if this is correct… but he has made similar drawings on his charts and called them batwings… According to him they are 80% successful

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mylifemytrade/f

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I posted 2 weeks ago about the big purchase of 60 strike calls in the ViX for Feb, March, April and May . Keep in mind that those 30k contracts bought 2 weeks for Feb at .85 are now at .35) . . Is this institution going to sell now or wait till experation? They have until next wed.Thats the Experation for Mr Vix. The reason i bring this up is b/c it could cause Mr vix for Feb to stay under pressure…Thats if he sells now or waits for volitilty to move up in the next 3 trading days.

  • Duuuuuude

    Some Fresh Ideas

    IYR – http://screencast.com/t/GlT2F034s

    KOL – http://screencast.com/t/Y2lhGkKfX

    XLF – Not a Fresh trade ala Erik, but maybe a different look at it. http://screencast.com/t/x9ouc5TMB

  • pristinetrader

    It looks like we are setting a lower high on the hourly chart of the SPY. Normally a lower high is a serious concern as it shows a new downtrend could develop. We have to keep an eye out for those November lows. I just updated my chart.
    http://pristinetrader.blogspot.com/

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Fuji san, what do u think of this ew analysis by another trader? http://s5.tinypic.com/15ge1d4.jpg

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I was thinking of shorting IYR but i chose FAS lol ..IYR could go down farther than the banks in this next decline.

  • Duuuuuude

    No argument from here. Why not do both!

    This could be my favorite. Use XLU to mark your entries and exits, but use SDP as the weapon. http://screencast.com/t/PyB9jeKz

    So many juicy shorts.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Fuji san, what do u think of this ew analysis by another trader? http://s5.tinypic.com/15ge1d4.jpg

  • BlueStar

    Mole,
    As one of the many unwashed leeches commenting for the first time, I just want to give a huge “thank you” for creating one of the few sites I “must visit” on every trading day. You rock!
    Didn't want to comment till I had something to add and your VIX statement caught my eye. “Mr. Vix…..this thing is broken lately)”
    Does that “lately” coincide with the new VIX ETF products that came out this week? I am wondering what, if any, effects people are noticing from the ETF's.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    I know you meant Fujisan & not me but… I'm shooting for: BENCH OF DEATH!!!!!!
    http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m47/fuzzygre

    However, I remain open minded to the DOUBLE WEDGIE!!!!
    http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m47/fuzzygre
    :-O

    (LOL! You just gotta have fun with this sh!t when you can, Juno?)
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLU and (XLE that i posted below) on a weekly chart shows time is running out. Ready for a dump

    http://screencast.com/t/T5HWryLzXh

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • http://trading-to-win.com DavidDT

    Slightly different presentation of short term Fibonacci use
    http://www.trading-to-win.com/
    857 by Friday close?

  • ablebonus

    Most of the folks that frequent this site are knowledgeable traders and contrarians by nature. So perhaps it is a little inconsistent to expect those folks to embrace a proprietary signal that flashes “buy” or “sell” without being able to see what is underneath. The commentary is great and I would happily contribute for the commentary. I like the “gold” idea from below, as KD has done. Thanks for your continued insights and good luck this week!

    I think the fate of the market rests on the price of crude. We can't get new lows in the market unless crude and related equities tank. Conversely, if we get a spike in oil we can easily get to 900ish in the S&P and with a little momentum 1000. With earnings behind us folks may be willing to embrace the stimulus hope. We'll know shortly.

  • rhae

    Batwings work for me… I really should not muck with anyones chart, Your charts and views are just as good as mine… It is just easier to express my view on your chart..

    http://screencast.com/t/4Ime4Luop7p

  • El Gato

    Mole…..this might be how you feel?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-e0VrJDywU

  • de3600

    Mole I think you are 10 times better out there calling the market than OA. I joined that site 1 month just to paper trade it and it was out right awful.In short I think you and Tim Knight have the best blogs.And you right that guy can go fuck himself.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    more pertinent question os is are these batwings

  • molecool

    I went back and toned it down a bit. Not a day where people should start telling me to 'pay my dues'. Very insulting, especially after what I've sacrificed for this community.

    Anyway, water under the bridge – he probably didn't mean to insult.

  • Jammer63021

    Hey Mate didnt you say you needed 100 to make a go of it with the Zero? I see you are up to 98? Dont give up. I am all in. Word of mouth will take care of the rest.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    more pertinent question os is are these batwings

  • b_rad

    Consider yourself a better person in general. When the market was right for said individual he was good, but the huge rise in volatility last year pretty much killed his momo. Ultimately was his domain so he called the shots, but I like what you've got going better

  • yazzer

    and that 20 day ema is coming down quickly! GREAT!

  • Fujisan

    It looks good to me. It's similar to Mole's wave counts, isn't it?

    The problem with EW wave count is that W5 won't be confirmed until Nov low is broken. We may be sitting in this zig-zag corrective waves a little bit longer.

    You changed your outlook! It almost looks like one of those Japanese amination charactors – mobil suit. What are you trading these days?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mole,
    sorry to hear about your GLD hurdle – I have different theory to offer
    (tell me if it is not OK to post link to my site here – I need to know if it is inline with “code of ethics” of this fine site ๐Ÿ™‚
    Just posted GLD opinion http://www.trading-to-win.com/
    Also, Mole – we (few “TOS political Shadow Trader Room refugees” were trading the living Baby G. out of /ES in Trader Lounge – join when you get a chance – we are “mostly questioning contrarians in there, no perma bulls, no perma bears – just lean green money making machines :))

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis
  • Nugie

    Mole – you need to relax. You have only had your charts up for 2 months. There are a lot of leeches out there but not to fret. I have been in this business for 43 years and I know a good thing when I see it. The thing you do not want to do is commercialize your product. Offer it to a 100 subscribers and keep it close till it catches on. I have had sucess with your charts and that is saying something because after 43 years in the business I have seen the best and the worst and your is very good. If you have time give me a call after the market closes tomorrow as I would like to have a conversation with you My number is 208-887-2144. I think I can help you in your delema of weather to keep your charts running or not. Have a great day . Nugie

  • ColdC

    I appreciate this analysis. Makes me think differently. I made a killing on WNR late '06 into '07. Interesting charts. Cheers.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    My son is in Power rangers these days, so this is Megazord character (when all 3 power rangers unite their animal spirits). He is 3 and loves to see that megazord on my laptop when I am posting comments on blog.

    Yes, it is similar to Mole's wave counts. Looks like, he stole it.

    I am short /NQ right now. it s doing pretty good even at this hour. I am surprised. Looks like we will open with low gap if it continues going down.
    Other than that I am short EUR/USD, USD/JPY, puts in spy, gs, GM, FITB, QQQQ, and calls in VIX, TLT, FXY, and USO. USO Feb puts is in big loss. Oil should bounce now. but it may be down due to Theta burner as I am holding Feb USO calls. I am confused on that, if I should cut my losses or wait till expiration day.

    How about you?

    ________________________________

  • Vic

    That chart gives me hope.

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Are you speaking of the TA site? I joined it when it was first formed was a member for a few months, the trades the put out are horrible I agree but thats not what the site is about its about education. Don't know if its still set up the was it was a while ago the best thing was the live trading sessions with Erik. I got the basic eduction I needed and moved to here and slope and have never looked back.

  • T. Waffle

    Ladies,

    http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/

    uploaded some wave 5 action. comment and critics are welcome

  • yazzer

    bear pennant…

  • EDC

    Mole,

    Your hard work is appreciated. Sorry about the zero vote but I have never even ready about how to use it or use it for that matter. To many goodies with the knowledge between your site, slope and twits.

    Knowledge is the community and that is very very valuable. You are at the center of the value.
    thank you.

  • yazzer

    nice! +1

  • Fubar1951

    I know my little post doesn't matter. But I will post anyway.
    I find your site and comments spot on. The Zero was okay. But, I am not a noob trader and have my own rules to trade.
    I hope you are finding your efforts invested in the Zero helpful to your trading.
    I think it is a compliment to you that you have attracted a sophisticated group of traders to your site that don't need a tool like the Zero for their trading.
    GL
    Fubar

  • Fujisan

    Ahhh~, we had “Five Rangers” in Japan when I was a llittle kid many years ago. I was very surprised to find it in here in the States as well.

    Yeah, front month options hurt, when it's not moving to your direction. That's why I never buy front months options neither do naked options.

    I'm pretty much short anything against Yen, sepcially I love GBP/YEN pair. The only thing I learned by trading currencies is that, it could go wrong big time especially while I'm sleeping, so I decided to always close my position at the end of the day. I'm so scared to hold it overnight.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    very nice – and today's action struck me as the deadest of dead cat bounces given the announced stimulus agreement and the huge down move yesterday -mkt should have been up big

  • chrysalis

    David, was doing some research on Demark sequential and found your site. Would you have a current snapshot of the Demark count for the S&P 500?

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    I know. especially at 2 am in the night, it picks up speed. I lost a lot of money in currency trading that, I thought i will never get back, but seeing what's going to happen now with wave 5, I fathomed my courage again to get back into it. GBP/JPY has 5 pips spread, so it moves very fast. When risk will enter in the market, I will trade GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY for faster moves.

    I think here also there are 5 rangers, other two are Rhino and wolf, which I did not mention. Where in Japan are you from. I visited Japan 3 times. Kamakura and of course Tokyo. First time, I thought I could not live there, 2nd time, I just loved it and felt, I could live there. Nice place.

    ________________________________

  • molecool

    “You have only had your charts up for 2 months. “

    Ahem – I started this blog in August. Thanks for the kind words though. I hope you don't get prank calls on that number – kind of risky posting it for everyone to see. So I will remove your comment and repost it without the number – hope you don't mind.

  • Fujisan

    OK, obviously Mole's therapist nor my Yoga instructor did not work. Try some medicine now.

  • b_rad

    is the EW labeling done manually? or is it some sort of automated black voodoo magic?

  • molecool

    Posted by Nugie – but reposted without phone number:

    Mole – you need to relax. You have only had your charts up for 2 months. There are a lot of leeches out there but not to fret. I have been in this business for 43 years and I know a good thing when I see it. The thing you do not want to do is commercialize your product. Offer it to a 100 subscribers and keep it close till it catches on. I have had sucess with your charts and that is saying something because after 43 years in the business I have seen the best and the worst and your is very good. If you have time give me a call after the market closes tomorrow as I would like to have a conversation with you My number is xxxxxxx I think I can help you in your delema of weather to keep your charts running or not. Have a great day . Nugie

  • molecool

    Long John Silver, baby!

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    more pertinent question os is are these batwings

  • molecool

    You know what – you might be right. I have a certain way of looking at GLD and Gold futures – and just now I put it into my stochs/MACD combo like a regular stock. I still need one more day of confirmation but it's possible that this was just a throw over and that it'll drop like a rock from here. I'll know more tomorrow morning.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    more pertinent question os is are these batwings

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Continuing to sift thru the mountain of info and see I somehow missed XOM was down 2% today – accounts for 5% of the SPX and the chart looks like garbage – more food for us bears?

    Off topic but if have to watch another pajamagram commercial, I'm taking my assault rifle to the shopping mall….Valentines Day has the worst commercials of any holiday. At this point I'm beyond ready to move on to the beer commercials for St Paddys…

  • molecool

    “if have to watch another pajamagram commercial, I'm taking my assault rifle to the shopping mall.”

    LMAO – that comment made my day – thanks ๐Ÿ™‚

  • molecool

    Thanks Fubar – thoughts appreciated.

  • ZigZag

    Hi b_rad,

    it's all automated in the elliottician software. I use other indicators that must agree with what the software sees. It's been a great tool for helping me confirm a direction.

  • molecool

    Yes, my stoch/macd mix shows the same which is why I stuck with my puts today. Tomorrow/Friday should bring clarification.

  • mikie007

    Hey Mol, you said “I also feel a bit discouraged by that Zero vote” and for sure you are. However, was the rejection for Zero with all your genius, blood, sweat and tears that developed Zero into the super slick decision making “Widget” she is – or – was rejection for: $39mo=Evil-Zero combo – as seen in the mind's eye of the voter when directed to deal with that chore upon opening the page? I have my thoughts but you have to decide for U. I'll just say price points are crucial to the decision maker who votes their wallet based upon many factors and their immediate circumstances at the moment they had to deal with voting. Zero's accurate decision making functionality is worth every cent of $395.00 per license to a mega-buck portfolio trader and others for applications such as “black box” farm operators of whatever flavor. But think about Evil Trader Rats and wannabees, who have had to use their own, much less than accurate, wherewithal, using software tools not even designed to do what Zero does? I bet not all rats understand her or get it fully and how she will make them $$$.They look at the value proposition of what they think Zero does and proposed costs vs. what they have been doing using old techniques they learned many times each trading day themselves, some for many years, many very poorly, loosing significant coin in some cases, etc,..now in the contracting economy that is setting a tone of no spending for extra anything. So how do they elect to vote their wallets for a moderately expensive Widget nicety as seen in the eyes of some rats here when asked? Anyway, the feedback given opens many doors for you to consider using some marketing chutzpa you surely are capable of and I too will be asking PayPal to send some coin to EvilZero or EvilWho.- take your pick.

  • v8muscle

    The Zero looked like it was pretty awesome, sadly I can't make use of it because my account is too small to make day trades like it would require. Why not make it available to those who want to pay? with 100 people subscribing its still a pretty decent amount of money a month, especially for requiring such little effort to maintain.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    this is what I see. there is a parallel between current time and last FEB/MAR. Tomorrow (as the futures suggests right now) we'll head to the downside, however, there is still a chance that it may try to make a run up for one more time, like a drowning animal gasping for its last breath before it sinks to the bottom. The chart may seems confusing, but I color coded for easier reference. The key is close below today's low.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/32729

  • v8muscle

    I'm still confused as to what I should be looking for on that chart

  • Merlynn

    Mole, Love your Blog and I think that maybe a lot of people are like me and just don't have the time to learn something new right now. I have been hoping to learn to use the Zero, but haven,t been able to work it into the schedule. By the way congratulations on your new citizenship, hopefully these idiots in DC won't make you ashamed and wish you hadn't done it.

  • de3600

    http://wcbstv.com/local/body.dragged.nyc.2.9325… must have been a lovely site driving by at 65 miles an hour

  • Merlynn

    Oh and by the way Elliott wave Int. id free for the next week for a test drive.

  • segaa

    MyLifeMyTrade wrote> since Berk left
    ???

  • fuzzygreysocks

    >>> ATTENTION: No animals were harmed in the creation of these charts. <<<

    <munching sound, munch! munch! munch!>
    “Mmmm… bowl of pills… with chocolate milk… mmmm… yum yum yum gobble gobble.)

  • segaa

    Sorry guys for asking banalities, but why in the world are you buying OTMs? They are pure lottery tickets, IMO. Yes, I understand Black Swan, open opportunities etc, but why buying in such quantities that this affects your account?

  • rhae

    Most call it a 2X bottom

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Different people like different things.
    Some people like the merry-go-round.
    Others like roller coasters.
    Some people like their toast plain.
    Others like it with PB or jelly or served on a beautiful naked woman. (Assuming you like beautiful nake women, of course. [It'sa big world out there. I'm open minded.])

    OTM front month options a week before OEF is… kinda like… eating toast covered in Tobasco sauce, served on a beautiful naked woman while riding a roller coaster!
    But there's always the widdle, kiddie meh-wee-go-wound ITM 3mo out options fo da peeps that just wanna haff a widdle fun.
    :-)#)

  • amgrant

    Hey Mole, first post here but would will add that the only reason I said 'No' as well is because I have my system in place. Keep up the good work.

  • rhae

    Momo and Macd, so near the 0 line… a possible ZLR is what worries me

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Here's an EW of gold : http://tinyurl.com/b9bbnj

    Mole,
    You know I get around these sites a bit (but you know I most often come back to you, big boy! <wink! wink!>)
    You oughtta consider petitioning to get listed on these other trader/analysts lists to get more eyeballs here at ES.
    Get that networking thing goin' on.

    Once you get ES crack you can't go back.
    'cause you can't get enough of that <Clap! Clap! double shooty fingers>
    goooood stufff!!!

  • segaa

    fuzzygreysocks wrote > Assuming you like beautiful nake women
    :=)

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Aw, maaaaann!!!
    You're too fast!

    Here ya go: http://tinyurl.com/b5coam
    A nice ITM SPY JUN $90 & a racy OTM SPY FEB $80.
    WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • standard_and_poor

    Good eye, +1 !

  • alphahorn

    this will be an important chart for tomorrow. The $CPCE graph is a decent indicator of forthcoming market bottom. It is right up against it downtrend line, if the market goes down tomorrow morning and people continue to return to puts then it should breach the downtrend line. Look back to November and January on this chart the previous two times this has happened the market proceeded to find a bottom. Chart from cobrasmarketview:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Send Help

    Mole – It bothers me that I upset you in some way — not my intention — I think what I stated was quite reasonable but more importantly I think I clearly stated that I like your style, wish you well and that as your site develops, I'd be happy to be a paid member – but perhaps that was lost in what you chose to respond to – no worries…..always wishing you well and much success — sorry to not have the opportunity to try the Zero in a trending market, but perhaps that day will come – And by the way, congrats on citizenship, my great grandfather came over from Germany – I look forward to exploring that country some day — anyway — Best to you and yours…..

  • Sal

    I like your chart s and had it book marked it as well but your site crapes out on me. Looks like a memory leak or too many pop ups are trying get attentions. Does anyone else have this problem or it is just me.

  • david888

    I have a question about tax return. I do not know how to file the gain or loss on unrealized shorts since I began shorting the stocks in 2008. For example I shorted 100 google in 2008 but I did not cover in 2008. I have covered in 2009. But the sell transaction recorded in 2008. What should I do in this case when I file the tax return? What should I do when I file 2009 return about this transaction since sell record was in 2008 and not show in 2009 sell record?

  • Huggybear

    You report the sale on your '08 return as an open short positon. Failure to do so will result in a nasty letter from the IRS claiming you owe tax on the full amount of the sale revenue!

  • standard_and_poor

    A guess of thursday's SPX trading day. http://screencast.com/t/gi6t80lJ

  • slartybardfast

    is that the right link?

  • jacksoo

    Hi S&P – a bit cryptic – suggesting some concern about downward move?

  • http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/ Downandout

    Like the thought and link. I definitely smell a bull trap and remain short NEM and GFI. My theta burn is slow because I have April puts. The other important piece of the puzzle is that gold mining stocks are not leading/leveraging the gold price when considering the major indices like $XAU or $HUI. Almost no progress in these indices since mid-December despite a rising gold price and dropping oil price. To me, this means look out below for both gold price and gold mining stocks.

    After this impending correction, which should be sharp and swift, I'll be all in on the long side for a barnburner of a spring rally in gold stocks.

  • Kurious

    looks like we might get a small gap down on the open this morning. If the job number gives the street a suprise we might gap down big time.!.

  • brokesailor

    Type your comment here.
    Mole, I missed the vote yesterday as probably some others did. I am a somewhat new visitor here and have only given the 'Zero' a occasional glance looking for conformation. Plans were to work with it more as time allowed. Should you choose to offer a subscription please sign me up.

    Thanks for your hard work, insightful commentary and a wonderful site filled with great people.

  • katzo7

    V8,
    I think he is making a comparison with the earlier circled area (note the big drop there too).

  • annamall

    Mr Mole
    I wish I really understood how to use your S&P 0 chart, I must admit, I have an idea, but not totally, so I didn't vote. (my bad) I love your Blog and appreciate your genius and insight as many other do there.

  • T. Waffle

    I don't think anyone is having that problem yet. ads well gota make some extra from every corner in this economy ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I am glad you like my blog. I am still learning but love to share my ideas and understanding so others can benefit and give me some pointers to improve.

  • DartboardTrader

    Mole,

    Seriously consider executing the trades on a third party performance verification site such as collective2.com (I do not work for them.)

    People will subscribe if Zero's performance model is suitable to their desire. Collective2, being a third party allows everyone to see a market-realistic performance of this trading system. Start the subscription at $0.00 so we all can see it's real-time performance.

    –Mike

  • Paleface

    Ditto.
    Very good basic education, a real eye opener for me, but Jeff's view: “Not a stock market, but a market of stocks” doesn't fits this market IMHO.

  • asetrader

    That's all she wrote!

  • GMunni

    You sir are fucking moron if you don't know why you pissed mole off and for your original post. Now stop cluttering up his server allotment with your stupidity.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    shorted eur/usd at 1.2868, usd/jpy at 90.11, Shorted /NQH9 @1218

  • 25cm

    U.S. retail sales unexpectedly post first increase in seven months! Hmmmm…..

  • Douala

    Nepharis

    You make some great charts…love the comments on them. Learning a lot form you. Thanks!

  • yazzer

    really? LOL – I have never done this – I just leave it open and show it only when I clsoe the position. There used to be a great loophole that, if you short and the company goes to zero, you never 'consummate' the trade – no tax onthe trade! They closed that one a while back…

  • yazzer

    yeah, and who are all those people here you mentioned as kissing his ass? LOL, maybe you should start a show on TV like Hells Kitchen or something…are you Simon Cowell? Look, I have a thick skin but you came across as extremely blunt and combative in that post…I commend your attempt to reconcile here, however…

  • yazzer

    so alpha, from that chart, have you looked at where this bottom might occur?

  • Douala

    Interesting….+2

  • GMunni

    May you should look at it as a consolidation into a trend? If you look at the last two trending periods shown on that chart, I think that is the real clue.

  • Kurious

    fudged numbers.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Sorry, I should leave out a few trend lines and reference lines to make it less confusing. If you just look at the channels, you can see the similarities. Those channel represents the elliott waves, and we have finished the 4th wave and start with the 5th. I think this wave will end at high 710's. Like to see 600 level though.

  • BalaB

    Futures puking ever so nicely

    p.s. “Ed Balls, the Prime Minister's closest ally, warns that downturn is ferocious and says impact will last 15 years.” – Sheesh! Tough name to grow up with.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge
  • Keirsten

    At deeply discounted prices, not to mention redemptions of gift cards from Christmas. Margins are the only thing that ultimately counts. Gotta love the spin.

  • b_rad

    you only report when you close the trade b/c that determines whether it is subject to ST or LT capital gains

  • TomOfTheNorth

    higher prices for fuel & food translate to 'higher' retail sales not necessarily 'more'

  • T. Waffle

    Seems like my chart was correct.

    http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/

    +1 if you agree.

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    If Mole won't do a Zero vote at 9.95/mo than I'll do this via comments – reply to this if you'd pay for the Zero at 9.95…

  • BalaB

    +1 Word

  • jigdaddy

    anybody selling their mar/april puts today?

  • T. Waffle

    Holy shit loot at VIX

  • jigdaddy

    yep

  • Keirsten

    Short MA, hard mental stop @164.85 or this one can get away and turn into a holy terror.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MA&p=D&b=5&g=0

  • BalaB

    USD (up heathly) & GLD up

  • Catbird

    Heck yeah, but I'd pay Mole's $39 per month. I'd pay $49 for that matter.

  • Kurious

    i hope we fill the gap and DROP DROP!!

  • b_rad

    personally I'm booking some gains on this opening, reload higher (i think we'll atleast churn + next week is a short OpEx) for the next leg down

  • moneyfarm

    +1 right about the gap

  • b_rad

    we need a VIX close above the fiddy and the downtrend line!

  • ZigZag

    All hail Theta-Man! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • T. Waffle

    it's only 15 min of trading we will get there for sure.

  • simpletrade

    Mole, are you taking off your Feb. puts or you're waiting for more?

  • Reza

    +2

  • Chop it up

    market open – careful – YEN is down – es down too….? either a change in relationship or a delayed reaction on one of them…I'm betting its the ES that is delayed – ie downside fake out on ES or a delayed move up for the YEN or a YEN flip….either way strange..

  • molecool

    NEW POST!

  • molecool

    Dude, I got lucky – could have whipped me out easily.

  • ZigZag

    I know what you mean. I wasn't expecting it to happen right at the open! Man, if we can break $797 this thing will just crumble..

  • standard_and_poor

    Don't know why, but here's correct link:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/vlakIjWFRF

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's correct link, thanks for pointing it out:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/vlakIjWFRF

  • Huggybear

    Merely reporting on my own personal experience. My broker will send the copy of all of my sales to the IRS. One year, let's say 2003 I shorted CALM on Dec. 29 and covered it in Jan. '04. I thought since it was not a completed transaction, that I didn't have to report it on my '03 return. Well, a few months later, I received a nasty letter from the IRS claiming that I owed about $8000 in back taxes for the “sale” of roughly $30K of CALM in '03. Since this sale had a zero cost basis in '03 (because the shares are borrowed), the IRS assumed that I got the shares for free and sold them for a $30K profit. After investigating, I found out that you avoid this by reporting the short sale on the '03 return as an open short position.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sorry did not see your question – discuss emails go to “bin bucket” account – please, feel free to email me at DavidDT.TTW at gmail

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    sorry did not see your question – discuss emails go to “bin bucket” account – please, feel free to email me at DavidDT.TTW at gmail