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This Is Getting Too Easy!
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This Is Getting Too Easy!

by The MoleMarch 2, 2012

So yesterday was that time of the month again. I’m not referring to Mrs. Evil, no – less painful – we got another whack at playing the 30-year bonds bounce game. At this point it’s become a favorite Evil Speculator past time – go long at support, set your stop, profit!

I swear, it’s like pushing a button, this. We were actually hoping to finally get stopped out so that we could take a technical short position, but thus far the big money trade keeps evading us. That’s fine – until we get the big one we’ll continue to nickel and dime ’em to death.

I’m really glad I suggested the 10-year as well though and if you caught this candle yesterday then I’d take a bow and cash out gracefully. That’s if you were a sub of course – if you were not then you want to point your browser toward ZeroEdge where you will have plenty of company whilst bitching about the ‘erratic’ and ‘unfair’ tape. We stainless steel rats prefer to bank coin and smile all the way to the bank. Anyway, I have no clue as to where this thing is going next as we are now near a descending diagonal resistance line.

Okay, so the ole’ convict got all smug about the inside day candle freebie he handed out to all you leeches yesterday. Well, I can do better than that old vegemite drilling dingo bumping dipstick! I give you …. (drum rolls) ….. the INSIDE INSIDE day candle!!!! (echo)

Caveat – we are currently trading awfully near yesterday’s low, which means we may just trigger Scott’s setup today. So if that happens take out a small position which you unfortunately will have to hold (and perhaps hedge via the spoos or the AUD/JPY) over the weekend.

If we remain within yesterday’s candle then Monday will be the day to play my setup and the Convict owes me a beer (or two). Of course if his setup triggers then he still owes me a beer – so how can I lose?

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Quick update on the NYSE A/D ratio chart – it’s starting to look more bearish here. I was hoping for something more significant on the D/A panel but thus far we are only painting 2.0 signals – would like to see a 3.0 or 4.0 if possible. That would be a good indication that something more sinister was in the works. But I’m putting this out as a preliminary notice to everyone – no need to take action just yet but I am on the lookout for a bearish signature here similar to what we got in 2011 (please check out my recent Sunday posts).

Ole’ bucky is back from the grave and made it above both MAs against all odds. This is a wonderful example of why I do not just rely on one (short or long term) moving average. Quite often you will get faked out. In my not so humble experience a combo just like this (you can shift those values to whatever suits you) is a good way of separating between fake and real support/resistance breaches. And if you have been a sub over the past year or two then you know that the results speak for themselves.

Anyway, this is good for the Dollar and may be bad for equities. I would get a bit more excited if we cross the magic 80 mark, so let’s see what happens next week.

I like that formation on gold right now – we are currently locked between the 100-day SMA and a recently expired NLSL. I think I would be long on a breach of the NLSL or a touch/retest of the 100-day SMA. I would be short on a failure of that SMA – just to be clear.

Let’s wrap up the week with currencies. The Kiwi/Dollar has been on the move and if it touches that NLSL then I want to be long – until of course I get stopped out and we breach below that lower BB at 0.8234. A breach of that would want me to be short and smiling into 0.8.

The old lady is actually in a similar setup, which is very interesting – I always like it when I see similar formations on several currency pairs. One of them usually gives it away earlier, and that allows me to anticipate and better structure my trades.

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Enjoy your weekend!

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • seek_truth

    strength in FAZ is really starting to build pointing to a drop coming in /ES

  • Anonymous

    Impeccable timing mole. As usual if I am not on the right side of the tape its my own fault(and bias … I am trying honest…).

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Pretcher knows and gets it wrong.
    Mole doesn’t know and gets it all the time.
    it’s a Zen world we live in.

  • Anonymous

    Prechter will be right … in 2016. by that time all his subscribers will have bled to death.

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY attempting some upside here.

  • Anonymous

    yeah. new highs by 4 pm…..

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    meh.  distribution pattern around a fib fan.
    just have to pick the right line FTW!

    http://i44.tinypic.com/35mqwt2.png 

  • Anonymous

    Thanks.  Using it a ST signal i.e. daytrade.  Was just about to short ES and saw it pop.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    87.825
    pop is an understatement.
    just touched the next line.

  • Anonymous
  • Joe_Jones

    Boy this tape is unfair and erratic 8′-(

  • Joe_Jones

    looky looky most stops to play with

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s that time of the month.
    excuse me while I sit on my throne and read ZeroLedge.

  • Joe_Jones

    😉

  • Anonymous

    LMAO!!

  • Anonymous

    “…the Convict owes me a beer (or two). Of course if his setup triggers then he still owes me a beer – so how can I lose?”
    ha, he’s a good trader but a questionable gambler

  • Anonymous

    You know couple of days ago when I saw some post about watch the ES jump 20 points or some bs about the ltro. I felt extra comfortable being short.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    http://i44.tinypic.com/2ujmp0k.png

    Today’s sell was too hot (b-to-c), and surprise (not) c-to-d occurred.
    anything is possibly by Sunday.  1377 or 1363.
    -DG

  • Kudos

    Two maxims come to mind:

    “You can’t fool everybody all the time but you can always fool someone all the time.””There is a sucker born every minute.” 
    What i’m trying to say is there will always be blood to bleed.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    oh you mean JBTFD that has been working for months also worked today?!

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    how so?
    I see price staying with the bolinger.
    weak below the 40ma.
    trix about to rollover.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    price reverse after I posted this.
    Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.

  • Anonymous

     Yea you are right I think. Not much there I guess.

  • Anonymous

    OH please let it close at 6.66. Both would be oh so sweet for ZE material.

  • Joe_Jones

    Darth JJ sounds gay. Hey, why you edited your comment? That was funny!

    BTW DG, it’s probably not a trend day. 😉

  • Anonymous

    Hum, nice reversal there:)

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • Joe_Jones

    lowest volume of the year today for what it matters :
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p65232798366 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Reason for shorting Tech:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes, the NASI has rolled over.
    but the renko still needs coaxing.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p20738350843 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ps.  the link (above) will update in ~30min
    so my statement may not hold water! for Mar02.

  • Anonymous

    Ah, 2 out of 3 isn’t bad:)

    Very extended and will fall very hard when it does.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    we need the dollar to get off support and launch.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65840844946 

  • Anonymous

    Mole check out this 3 day chart on /ZB I’ve been watching (for what seems like forever!)
    It’s in the trend phase still looking for 11, 12 & 13. 
    Count 11 will come with a close above the high of the bar two bars before it (143’04 currently)  
    So we potentially have a couple of more weeks to go to get bar13. 
    The thing that could cancel the count is if we get 7 more bars (21 days) of the count in pink that is at 2 now. It counts down each time the bar closes lower than the close 4 bars earlier. 
    http://screencast.com/t/cqqBrxCGjx0r

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Also, inside day on gold, nice setup for Monday

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    yah RSI needs to stay above 50.

  • Anonymous

    … and a bearish engulfing weekly candle. Last one worked out pretty well.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    opps i meant to reply to the dollar chart you have up below.  

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    skynard,
    it did turn if you take a small box size.
    make it 2.5 out of 3.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p20738350843 
    😉

  • Anonymous

    yes divergent, but note how long the divergence sometimes lasts before resolution (agreement).  

  • Anonymous

    I like this one but the wild card of a crazy event keeps me awake at night (somebody does something to Iran, for example).  

  • Maumaj

    I have been told on numerous occasions by many different people that TOS Sequential is not reliable.  Here is the count with a study that has been confirmed precise by people who know more about it than I do.
    As you can see, the 13 count has been in since 9/7/11.  Just like your chart, the present count is at a TDBuy 2. 
    Just trying to help, hope this helps.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Maumaj/folders/Jing/media/1cf1833f-6915-4d1e-b02f-c9e0c1c0f995/00000353.png
     

  • Anonymous

    Gold fell $1.1 on October 8 of 2001 (day after the Afghanistan invasion)
    Gold rose $5 on March 20 of 2003 (day of the Iraq invasion)
    I don’t see any real correlation and I’d rather stick with the technical evidence instead of trying to guess what kind of effect (if any) such an event would have.
    After all, contrary to what the MSM and ZH would like you to believe, gold is not a hedge against a crisis. It’s a hedge against inflation, but it’s positively correlated to the overall market and if a crisis hits, gold will go down along with everything else.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, that is better:)

  • Anonymous

    Yes, that is better:)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks, aware of TOS issues. I check it manually.
    Must have missed something.
    Taking comment down.
    Is your chart from a custom programming in TD A?

  • seek_truth

    DG   – thanks for keeping this is front of us

  • Anonymous

    Thanks DG, I will go ahead a short XRT come monday. I’ll just take profit once SP reaches 1340. If it does of course.

  • Maumaj

    The study was written by a member of Trading-to-Win and I am not at liberty to pass it on.  I can post charts once in a while if time permits when you want to confirm your count if that can help.

  • Fibz

    Metals will be crushed by rising interest rates.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f3d03185-134d-4a48-8f68-0dbaf303f5b5/2012-03-02_1813.png
    I think I posted this yesterday. But it is another reason why I might try a short .

  • Anonymous

     Helicopter Ben isn’t raising interest rates anytime this decade…he can’t.  Every single percent he moves them costs the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars in interest, ZIRP always ends the same way.

  • Anonymous

    True he cant raise interest rates. However it is a myth that the Fed can actually set rates. The fed follows the market rates. When speculation is high people are willing to borrow at higher costs (for example during housing bubble). When speculation reaches a frenzy short term interest rates become higher than long term interest rates aka inverted yeild curve. The Fed follows by increasing rates and then gets blamed for popping the bubble. The market sets the rates period end of story. And rates are going to remain ultra low for the next few years. When rates finally rise the game is over.

  • Anonymous

    Bernanke has as much control over rates as does Greece over its bonds. Think hard about it.

  • Anonymous

    The $BKX are also at 50% retracement from 2010 highs, seems like a reasonable place to try.

  • Anonymous

    Only when real interest rates become positive. If inflation rises faster than interest rates precious metals will continue higher.

  • Anonymous

    Agreed. negative real interest rates are what drives gold. That wont change for years to come.

  • Anonymous

    But the Fed can and has been manipulating interest rates by setting the Fed Funds rate, using QE and operation twist.

  • Anonymous

    Only as long as the market allows it. They have been there before. Did Volcker set interest rates high or was it forced by the market? Why cant the ECB set Greece interest rates at 3% or so it had been earlier in the previous decade. Dont be fooled. Within the next few years you will see interest rates rise in Japan in spite of the BOJ. It will be instructive.
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tim-wood/interest-rates-the-fed-and-equities
    http://libertymaven.com/2010/04/30/does-the-federal-reserve-really-control-interest-rates/9636/

  • Anonymous

    Also you will find it fascinating that while central bankers get chided for “money printing” they are actually playing catch up to the credit already extended by member banks. The increase in reserves is not a sign of inflation to come but a catchup to the credit already out there. I only wish I knew this earlier!
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/graphical-representations-of-bernankes.html

  • Anonymous

    Some great charts in the link you gave, thanks!

  • Anonymous

    Never said they’d be successful. I agree markets win out. Then let’s abolish the Fed and let the market decide interest rates.

  • Anonymous

     Oh I know, but with all the added manipulation they put into the market real Interest rates will be too late to the party to stop the damage I believe.  By then everyone will know the dollar is on it’s deathbed, precious metals would skyrocket in the face of rising interest rates in this situation…I also believe it’s the most likely.

  • Anonymous

     Agreed…where do we start…;-)

  • Anonymous

    Dream on you guys! Unless your trades are over years just forget about fundamentals and stick to buy sell recommendations by Mole Scott etc as in this post. However if you are living in a country with bubblicious house prices knowledge of fundamentals will keep you from buying at wrong time eg. now in Canada or Australia. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/australia/
    See how short term rates are higher than longer term rates. Thats a glaring red flag right there.

  • Fibz

    everyone already “knows” the dollar is dead. 😉

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Will anyone notice with this announcement the same day?
    http://m.cnet.com/Article.rbml?nid=57333994&cid=null&bcid=&bid=-243

  • Anonymous

    Hey guys. Well just checked price action and no 150 pip gap so far in AUD/JPY. 😉 Past two weekends I would notice by 2 pm the price action was already volatile.

  • Anonymous

    thats a good start!

  • Anonymous

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P31LkgGOPo

  • Anonymous

    Just warning and it may not transpire but if you have stops set at 88.00 in the AUD/JPY do not be surprised if they are hit from quick jump to those levels.

  • Fibz

    I was just reading a discussion on another forum about MMA and someone mentioned the Dunning-Kruger effect. I’d heard of it before, but wish I was cognizant of it a few years ago before thinking I was Gordon Gekko. I think nowhere is it more applicable than in trading.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

  • Anonymous

    can’t see any trades on my system before 17:15 Eastern on AUDJPY – what’s it doing and where do you look at it?

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    WHOA Nelly!  Is it time to short EVERYTHING (except USD)?

  • Anonymous

    Yea, that is another reason why I really like this company Newb. Two weeks ago you remember the AUD/JPY jumping like it did. I had the platform running. The spreads where so high, at one point I think like 15 pips. It was really nice to be able to trade way before 6 pm. I was able to handle the losses and  to enter again later. Like I said before, past two weekends I saw the gapping happen live and it was around 2-4 pm when it would happen.

  • Schwerepunkt

    You mean mixed martial arts?  Seriously?  LOL

  • Fibz

    Well I don’t have an interest in MMA, but was reading the thread. 😛

  • Joe_Jones

    woah, that’s crazy

  • Schwerepunkt

    Chinese premier babbling . . . fokker.

  • Anonymous

    Maumaj thanks again, I remember you from TTW.

    I looked through the count again and noticed that the discrepancy between the counts is because of a TD Buy Countdown Recycle Qualifier. If you have Jason Perl’s book, it’s on page 23.

    The most recent Setup Sell seen on your chart actually extended from 9 to 18. The second Setup Sell that extended it from 10-18 can be seen on my chart in yellow. 
    http://screencast.com/t/cqqBrxCGjx0r 

    As far as the Countdown from the first Setup; on a Bloomberg terminal a letter R (for Recycle) will show up where bar13 of the Countdown Sell from the first Setup would have been. Your system may also do so.

    The current Sell Countdown in my chart started at at the end of the second Setup Sell.

    As far as technically for /ZB the extension from 9 to 18 bars was meaningful because it showed how much the momentum phase had intensified. 
    Then it went into this trading range action as Mole’s posts keep showing. So it will be interesting to see if that trading range continues or if treasuries finally roll off and continue that new TD Buy count; the big money trade as he is calling it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • Maumaj

    Thanks for the follow-up and explanation.