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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleMarch 28, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

As I’m writing this both the YM and the spoos are at a potential resistance point. I usually require three existing touches for a trend line to be valid. We already touched it but have not retraced sufficiently, thus it’s a bit speculative – would prefer a bit more testing here – a NLBL for instance would help.

As stated – similar pattern on the spoos. FYI – Quantifiable Edges reports that in recent history there seems to be an edge in a bullish ‘holy Thursday’ trade. Thank you Scott for passing that on.

USD/JPY near its 100-hour again – I’d like to see a touch before dropping into a trade here. Again, speculative  – things are a bit soft today before the long weekend and I recommend you keep your exposure limited.

A few more before we hit the road – shall we?

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    USD/CAD – careful
    could be a reversal (time) area.

    http://s12.postimg.org/o7oyerh2l/usdcad.png

    -DG

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I imagine there is a boat-load of buy stops right about here

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I imagined Ratzinger would die in office too. would have loved to see Volar calculate the odds on that one.
    😉

  • gsavli

    where from? shorters, who shorted at the top and stayed short until now? don’t think so.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    We are practically right in a well defined resistance zone.

    Either you are a short and need to cover, or you want to be long and buy breakout
    You buy stop is 1559.25 to 1560.75

    This is where I would put it, except I don’t. Too obvious

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JPM looks bad, are the banks getting hit today?
    (worse than XLF, which is worse than SPY)

    does not compute.

  • gsavli

    that’s right and it looks like a bullish triangle, so… maybe.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    OTOH there are levels after levels of sell stops
    Starting with as close as 1554ES, and everybody looking at 1550 this can get interesting either way. Maybe both…..ha-ha-ha

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seven comments – you guys are WAY too chatty 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Grrrr….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Rarely have I seen this many red candles in an uptrend – interesting shenanigans being played here during the New York sessions.

  • Joe_Jones

    Is there anything worth to say. Look at the zero, Jeez..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Taking a couple of those currency setups

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    i’m trying to cut back boss.
    =P

    driving into work.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Cocoa

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Did Corn just went limit down?

  • bullregard

    Madmoiselle Gas seems done… stick a fork in her skinny ass…
    I hope the statement does not show any bias, because there isn’t any. The report came in way more bullish than average for this time of year. Still was not able to pop over last night’s high. I think it will take a while, the convincing, but should be a long way down.

  • Talon_III

    Checking in boss. There has been quite a bit of excellent dialog regarding the USD/JPY pair lately, of which I am currently short. This pair is not for the faint of heart. Glad to see it in one of your set ups today Mole. It will be a fight getting through 94 again and a much bigger fight at the 93.855 level. Still targeting the 92.90 level with a shot at 90.872. If the 100hr. SMA does not hold, I am out. I missed your FX set ups from a couple of days ago due to other requirements. I know that us rats have a no tolerance policy for not banking coin so I am off to receive my punishment. Back on Monday. Stay frosty fellow rats!

  • convictscott

    market internals not buying the breakout

  • gsavli

    this is as bearish as it gets. for days now, we have been rallying just under all time high and every day it looks more and more like we are just waiting for the last bull to buy. POMO helps, of course, DAX is down 3% and doesn’t want to go up, and DAX is otherwise pretty closely corelated to SP500.

  • bullregard

    Shorted gold around 99… should have shorted silver, the weak one… ah, well… still learning.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Grains are getting killed on some kind of news.
    Apparently we have loads of this stuff

    See JJG spread as wide as 40c, it might be discounting more that what fut are down
    Still holding half position. Tried sell limit order, but missed by a mile

  • Schwerepunkt

    More of the same: zombie market; night of the un-dead; dead man walking. Uncle Ben loves his sedatives.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Meow . . .

  • ridingwaves

    the only fly in wall is retail traders are massively short already, could be nice blow off top squeeze

  • momac

    usda crop report came out

  • jmoney3000

    Yes, USDA Planting and Seeding report showed much bigger ending Stocks for old crop corn than expected and the crowd went in heavily long old crop (may) corn and heavily short new crop (dec) corn

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are YOU doing up so early?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Yea, those mo-fo…
    their reports last year where all wrong. Every single one of them!
    Nevertheless, unless prices can recover some before end of day – it’s good night for grains. Can’t argue with price and will exit JJG

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I don’t know where they are getting this info.

    Let me tell you something: there is NO old corn. None. Harvest was horrible last year, remember. I know – I saw it.

    As for new crop – there is none. They didn’t plant yet. It’s already late, and nobody planting yet, and winter crop of wheat is probably shit (excuse me, weak). I don’t know about beans, but they already broke last low

  • momac

    yep, I had vertical spreads on beans and corn, thank goodness they weren’t naked calls, I would of gotten killed. sugar got whacked, I’m assuming because the now cheaper corn sweeteners will take supply away from the real thing. Livestock prices are up, lower feed prices.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “this is as bearish as it gets.”

    I don’t see anything bearish here right now. What you are proposing sounds a lot like wishful thinking.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    She looks like my new pet.

  • ridingwaves

    actually looking bullish now with pomo update for next month…first time we have had 4 Mos. of no treasury sales since 11

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Question for Bolinger Bands guru’s out there:

    How do you judge a one day move from upper to lover 25 period BBand?
    This is a very unusual one-day move for JJG. Wondering, may be people overreacted to bogus news a bit?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    *Usually* it will find support after a move like that, *especially* if the BB is moving sideways. To be sure you may want to wait for a little white candle. OR if you go in early – simply use a stop below the BB and start with a tiny position – then pyramid up as she runs back.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look at you guys – slinging the softs 🙂

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, if you read the bollinger band book that Scott was NICE to link out there.
    25 period is low, about as low as you want to go.
    try a different time-frame, UNLESS, you can consistently backtrack and see 25 period is significantly reliable.
    -my 2 grams.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    this reminds me, the quiet times are when you are busy on evil projects or coding.
    surprised you’re here.

  • mrmik3

    .. yeah i cant do that pair just yet, it just moves a little too fast for me and i have a hard time reading it!!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • mrmik3

    yeah that’s wacky

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thanks guys
    Interestingly, while grains plunged agriculture stocks (MOO) went up, and MON hit new highs. I don’t have either of them….grr

  • gsavli

    yep, i certainly am biased now, that i am in a trade (short DAX from 7870), which is now “on autopilot”.

    but before today’s close (new highs actually held, which is bullish), there was repetitive futile rallying, day after day, with europe going lower (in the past, DAX oftentimes preceded US SP500) and those things were bearish.
    however, with today’s close, things again look bullish. but basically, this is just overthinking and mental masturbation.

  • convictscott

    Couldn’t sleep – the EATER BUNNY IS COMING!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    Just so you know today at 9.55am tokyo time, ie in about 2hours and 50mins, its the fiscal year end Tokyo fix which from what I am hearing so far will involve LARGE buying of usdjpy by importers.. I’m waiting how that plays out, and if USDJPY breaches 93.80 after that – I WILL be limit short…. BUT until then 94.44 is in play and if the pair pushes above 95.00, i will be LIMIT long as it will involve a break of a week-long consolidation around the 25dma.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look mate – you’ve been coming around for a long time so I’ll be nice – but I have to ask:

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    4 damnest long years in my life.
    school of hard knocks degree. Pimp & Circumstances is playing…must run.

  • newbfxtrader

    Not a good chart to put in front of a bear. Lol. Look what happened last time the market eclipsed all time highs. We plunged to 666.

  • convictscott

    Disagree mate, objectively the longer the trading range goes on the more change of it resolving with trend instead of reversing.

    Now we have a situation where the incredibly overbought momentum is now worked off by the 7 trading days of sideways action.

    This is a new game and we now see what the bulls can make of it

  • convictscott

    OK for a start charting on a grains ETF is *definitely* complete garbage. You need to start by looking at the real charts of the underlying grains, front month futures contracts. This chart shows a sideways range. The real chart shows a downtrend with a failed attempt to change trend. Now Mole is correct, the odds are definitely for at least a 2 day pullback, basically because lucky shorts will want to bank profits, but really the market is speaking loud and clear here. There are easier ways to make money than going long in a downtrend.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    How can people talk that much

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually we made new highs – sorry – monthly data was limping behind.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agree about charting ETFs. I only do it on weekly and monthly charts and then only if I have to, i.e. when stockcharts doesn’t offer the futures or cash instrument I need. I don’t know what everyone’s fascination with ETFs is – I think they are the devil’s spawn and they are designed to screw retail traders.

  • gsavli

    i agree, i only saw bearishness in repetitive rallying into the resistance and of course, DAX behavior. after yesterday’s close, i will most certainly lower my stop on my DAX short, which is now set very high. probably just above 7870 or maybe around 7900, have to do some charting.

    it seemed bearish for a few days, now it seems bullish to me. and of course, scott is right, consolidation in SPX was long and it favors continuation of a trend. however, i was playing DAX (no POMO here in europe) and maybe was a bit more bearish because of it breaking a support.

    well, it doesn’t really matter. although i will also think about being long US and short DAX, which is certainly showing weakness and is painting the second bear flag on the hourly now.

  • gsavli

    well, it seems that the retail is long stocks?

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    … and lose so much. It’s all mental masturbation covering up his inability to adapt his coveted theories to the real world.

  • vladv

    that looks like a beautiful expanding triangle. If true, then we “should” maybe trade upto 1600ish and then a move below the ’09 low. 🙂
    who knows? but would be an interesting trade

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thanks Scott, Mole
    Yea, completely agree about ETF’s in general and commodity one’s in particular. I wrote about their pitfalls and shortcomings here on numerous occasions. To paraphrase: “You can make money with ETF’s, just not as much as you think” …He-he

    I do follow front month contracts on grains and switch when JJG rolls.
    I constructed something of composite indicator for 33% mix of each Wheat, Soy and Corn. For couple of months its been indicating an accumulation, and especially so in Corn and Soybeans. Hence my repeated attempts to pick a bottom in JJG with half-position size and build from there. I use ETF’s because at the moment don’t have access to futures.

    Apparently I am not right. Stop a bit under low print, for now.

    methinks that come fall, we’ll be discussing much higher prices (with Kentucky ascent)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Take the perma-bear test: http://bit.ly/YkAZQD

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    awesome quote: making fun of ZH is like wrestling with a pig: you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.

  • amokta

    If everyone is expecting a pullback, then this becomes less likely?

    Btw, got tired of windows 7 ‘pausing’ & locking up computer constantly.
    Trying linux mint (install from within windows, but direct bootable) –
    seems good so far, no ‘pauses’ or locking up. Might be even better if i
    do a direct install into a new partition?

  • badflightrisk

    Never heard it explained any better than this

    Can I have your sandwich:

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/rEM4NKXK-iA?feature=player_detailpage

  • tradem4alpha

    I like your concept of “always wait for a retest”, but you got to admit that in a lot of cases there is only a deep retrace (around 0.6-0.8) and not actually a retest; like your chart above, the two points above are retraces in a downtrend and not exactly retest; nevertheless, if after these retraces there are 1-3 dojis + a big red bar, then there are good odds for the downtrend continuing,

  • newbfxtrader

    lol. True.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Which distro did you get? I personally favor Ubuntu.

  • amokta

    Linux Mint is built on underlying ubuntu, but comes bundled with plugins, etc and has easy-installer – installed without hitch on samsung netbook, no need to type in funny pathways using ” !

  • convictscott

    Actually no, there was not repetitive futile rallying. There was one day down, one day up, one day down, one day up….. for 8 trading days. This is actually the definition of a market in a trading range.

    It is a competition between bulls and bears. When one side or the other has exhausted their ammo, a buy/seller imbalance by definition will result. When that happens the market will choose direction.

  • convictscott

    Hackintosh your pc and install max osx on it. I did and it is superb. All the advantages of mac without the inflated prices and locked in hardware.

  • amokta

    Thanks CS – yes had a look at youtube vids, but too nervous to try it! Will be my next project – one issue is does the osx support hardware on pcs, as much wider range than apples own hardware

  • convictscott

    A deep retrace is a retest on a weekly timeframe. There is a 90% chance of one or both of a daily or weekly retest at major tops. If you are trying to swing for the fences and catch a major trend change then missing out on a daily retest because there is none is actually good because you catch it on a weekly timeframe. If you think about it the *absense* of a one or two day retest is its own method, that the change of trend is so pronounced that the old trend is literally too exhausted to muster a one day bounce.

    If you go deeper you can usually find retests at a major top on timeframes as low as 15 min. I personally find it fascinating to watch a 15 min retest, then a 30, 60, 120, 240 and then take the 6 hr or 8hr retest with a higher confidence.

  • convictscott

    Also typically the first retrace after a trend change will go a lot deeper than EWT will suggest. Retraces > 78% are common at trend changes where at other times they are not

  • convictscott

    It’s like this. The odds are overwhelmingly for a bounce of unknown duration. What sort of bounce? A bounce that does not look like a “v bottom” trend change but a sloppy choppy range trade day. Why? Because we know that after an extreme move some traders will want to take profits, some latecoming shorts will think it is safe to pile in, and some dip buyers will also come in. The cross currents of these three separate groups make it hard to trade and make the highest priobability for the next trading day a sloppy choppy small range mess.

    If there is no such bounce you KNOW the underlying selling pressure is overwhelming and you should not be long. Therefore your stop is correctly and wisely chosen 🙂

    If that bounce starts to look like its painting a floor, or the low is retested, then dip buyers will become emboldened and start to think about the long side again.

    But if that bounce runs out of steam after a few days, the bears will have taken the best punch of the bulls and laughed it off. The downside becomes a very high probability trade then.

    There is NO WAY TO PREDICT that yet because the evidence which would allow us to choose a side has not yet happened.

    I say again. Any prediction, or idea you have about where the market will be in Fall is a total impediment to your trading. By putting aside your preconceptions, we can see what is the most likely outcomes, and measure what *actually* happens with that. A single day of price action can totally change the outcome.

  • convictscott

    BTW http://www.barchart.com is excellent free web based charting with what I consider to be the gold standard for data. I use it when I am away from computer

  • convictscott

    Making daddy proud eh?

  • convictscott

    Ahhh they wouldnt be observing good Friday would they 😉 Thanks for the info

  • convictscott

    Interesting looking at the USDJPY 60 min chart

  • convictscott

    http://tonymacx86.com walked me through it. I have my computer dual boot. At the start of the working day I reboot to a clean windows 7 install with no distraction software installed, no email client nothing but spreadsheets and my trading platform. When I finish work for the day I reboot into OSX and I have all my creature comforts. That way when I sit down to work, I actually work.

  • convictscott

    Fantastic quote from Jeremy Grantham “The central truth of the investment business is that investment behavior is driven by career risk. In the professional investment business we are all agents, managing other peoples’ money. The prime directive, as Keynes knew so well, is first and last to keep your job. To do this, he explained that you must never, ever be wrong on your own. To prevent this calamity, professional investors pay ruthless attention to what other investors in general are doing. The great majority “go with the flow,” either completely or partially. This creates herding, or momentum, which drives prices far above or far below fair price. There are many other inefficiencies in market pricing, but this is by far the largest.”

  • gsavli

    yes, and there’s one more thing – tops have broader range, more violent swings down and then up, this really looks like continuation up is imminent, doesn’t look like a top.
    On the other hand, DAX had its retest of high and looks like it topped (if you care to take a look, i am short from 7870 index and i will lower my stop just above the second candle before the last, inside one. that would be 7918 on DAX index, which puts it to DAX futures around 7934). It is the second leg and second bear flag (Brooks usually gets out of trade after the second leg), but since this last candle is inside candle, i am letting this one run or stop out. Continuation of the trend should be downwards.

  • newbfxtrader

    Do what Scott did. Your windows installation should not have much garbage. If you are not computer savvy have a friend take a look at your device manager to see if you have any drivers not installed properly. For the same price of a mac desktop you can make a PC that will run rings around it. I showed this to mole sometime last year. Windows 7 is perfectly stable enough to run your trading platform. I get tired of people buying 300$ POS and then complaining about windows. Get a decent hardware and dont install games/garbage. Treat your trading seriously. You dont need to hack anything.

  • newbfxtrader

    Makes sense. But if you think like say Kyle Bass you need so much patience for years being wrong before being right. Most countries get into trouble with debt/gdp 90% or more according to Rogoff and Reinhart but look at Japan. 250% or so and still trying.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pure histrionic hyperbole obfuscating the ongoing reality in the United States of America: Fifty million children don’t know where their next meal will come from and about fifty million families don’t have access to affordable healthcare. An advanced ‘1st world’ society just doesn’t leave that many people behind. The rest is just talk and passing the buck.

    Besides – everyone continues to talk about the symptoms and not the underlying disease which is the healthcare *industry* in the US. Last time my wife went to the emergency in L.A. she was charged $1500 including a $300 charge for a neck brace – which we then later found for $9 at Rite-Aid. Until plain old corruption and fraud are being addressed the entire discussion is moot. That ‘sandwich’ they’re discussing would cost you $100 under the current system instead of maybe $3 – $5.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I run OS X with Win7 in Parallels. I never ever access my bank accounts or do any of my personal business (ordering products) via Windows. Simply run the Win apps in Parallels and be done with it.

  • newbfxtrader
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thanks CS

    This is exactly along the lines I was thinking about managing this trade. I am not a big expert on trading softs, but noticed that limit-down days (like we had on corn) are often followed by more of the same, and sometimes a string of limit-down days. One advantage of trading ETF’s is that I can exit regardless of underlying market being locked, albeit at discount of as much as few percent.

    As far as “predicting”… look, don’t think I am biased. I am not. I don’t wish this market higher, nor I am guessing. What I have is an understanding that farming is very hard and farmers are squeezed by high costs of everything. So much so that is was better for them to kill last years crop (most of it was so bad – it wasn’t worth saving) and collect insurance. It’s especially hard with bad weather we had here in States for few years now, and its no better at this time. Drought, late spring and bad winter crop is not preconception – its a reality on a ground. Big South American crop helps, but it’s never enough. Russia had trouble for couple of years, and 2013 looks even worse

    One thing I really like about grains – Sometime by fall we will know exactly if there is a lot or a little of this stuff and prices will reflect that reality. The way I see it – there is no way we will have alot, its only a question of how bad is it going to be. But still, its a long time between now and then, meaning The Bottom may be lower.

    I may be wrong about all of this, so I have a stop

    Will I hold JJG below 49.75? Absolutely not.

    Will I buy the very first bullish reversal signal? O, yea, again and again until and unless I see a big harvest with my own eyes.

  • Talon_III

    Scott, thanks for your continued analysis of this pair. This pair has generated some pretty good commentary here (and no, I am not a one trick pony…err…rat, but this pair at this time of year is one to watch. The Japanese new year has begun.). Panning out a bit, we have had what appears to be a false upside break of an ID (and as Mole has stated in the past, this adds “context”). The following day (Thursday) the price action was inside that of the original inside day of 3/26. Good Friday’s action contained the price
    action to paint yet another inside day with a pretty tight range with indecision (slightly to the upside). The layman might say that “this bitch is coiled up and ready to strike!” And if you look at a 4hr. chart, you see that a very nice trap has formed. This pair
    is wound up tighter than a…(better not, this might be a family show!). Watch the low of 93.866, it does not seem to want to break! The bulls line in the sand perhaps?

    I agree with Peter that above 95 and this thing is a moon shot. On the upside, if 95 gives way, the 98…101…105 are in serious play with additional upside potential if Abe is serious (but this is getting ahead of ourselves – trade the tape, don’t be a picker!). If it punches below the 93.866 level, my previous levels of 92.90 and 90.872 (low of Feb.) are in play. If 90.872 gives way, then Hell might temporarily shut down for repairs, opening the door to 85! Caution, this is a dangerous pair at the moment and the safest play is
    to wait for the breakout to happen and catch it on a pullback. Yes, you might miss the initial big move but there are plenty of pips to be made with this pair after it chooses a direction. I am sure that my general analysis warrants critique so please have at it. This is how I learn. Thanks

    And Mole, it must be good to be King, that is one mighty fine Easter Bunny you have there! I am just a back of the pack Stainless Steel Rat. Hopefully I begin to move up in the ranks and get a bunny like you have!!! Does she have a sister? 🙂

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Whole thing is one awful mess.

    People who suppose to manage the system are busy stealing and abusing it. Often not even for personal gain, but to secure their own job

  • amokta

    So true. Insurance system+private health providers=profiteering & cost-escalation, and very ill people or those simply struggling to pay for food & water are ‘priced out’ of affording health insurance.

    While US pays one of the highest % of GDP per head on healthcare, the healthcare provision for millions remains minimal, and those that do have it pay a lot for it (by way of premiums)

    A national health system based on tax or contributions while you are in employment, yet not denying you care when you are out of work helps everyone, and relieves population stress, at least you know that aspect is covered at a country-wide level. One day it could be you needing it.

    Also a national health system with right checks/balances can control profiteering and excessive charging, and is probably more cost-effective than a ‘private’ insurance scheme (with the uncertainty of being covered one day and then the next day not covered)

    Of course if Obamacare (?) simply takes taxes to boost profits for the private health providers, that wrong – the whole system needs to be non-profit & cost-controlled (like in may countries). There has to be some rationing at some level as some treatments or drugs will always be too expensive for public or private insurance to cover.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly – and the ultimate culprit are the voters who are easily manipulated into voting against their own interest. Which is why the U.S. will never/ever solve this problem. Every time a reasonable system is approached the corporate lobby groups start a witch hunt which obfuscates the real issues and scares voters into demonizing any ounce of regulation or improvement. So you guys get more of the same.

    FYI – the state of healthcare in the U.S. was one of the main reasons we decided to relocate back to Europe. it’s simply unacceptable to us to live in a society that neither cares about its elders or its children. And don’t get me started on education.

    I love the United States – well, I used to love it back in the 90s – it’s been nothing but downhill since then. At some point you just consider other options.

  • convictscott

    Good analysis. It is coiled up and ready to strike in either direction. If I get some time I’ll do a post on it

  • convictscott

    I don’t quite get the extreme emotion over government health care in the USA. I mean my politics are slightly to the right of Ghengis Khan, but our free healthcare is quite good and most people here could not envisage what society would be like without it. In Australia we have free hospital for everyone, subsidised medications for the poor (a script of virtually anything costs around $3), subsidised general practitioner visits (some GP’s are no cost to the user and only take the government subsidy, some charge a surcharge of around $50 to see a doctor). You get a 1% discount on your tax rate if you have private health cover, which I do. Private health gets you a choice of hospital instead of the hospital you are given, and reduced waiting times (non-urgent surgery is typically a 9 month wait in the government subsidised system).

    My father, uncles, aunties, both my sisters are doctors, some in the public system and some in the private system. There are certain specialties where the public system is actually better than the private system. For instance the heart transplant program in our free healthcare is probably the best in the world.

    I don’t understand – what do poor people do when they need to see a doctor?

  • convictscott

    Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Korea…all much better choices than the USA now. It is very sad considering that the USA basically invented the modern world, and by rights should still be leading it.

  • convictscott

    That’s quite a reasonable basis for trade, a disconnect between fundamentals and price 🙂

  • newbfxtrader

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uPdkhMVdMQ

    Well everybody gets the care sometimes in a convoluted fashion. The ER cannot refuse anybody admission. Hospitals overcharge for everything from the insured their rationale being they have to cover costs of the uninsured. If you dont have ER you can put real prices like in the video. Also see Moles comment below. The reason for the charges is because the hospitals have to pay for the uninsured.

  • newbfxtrader
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “The reason for the charges is because the hospitals have to pay for the uninsured.”

    B.S.: The reason why hospitals (and healthcare in general) is overpriced is due to racketeering and profiteering.

  • newbfxtrader

    Most likely. But thats the excuse they give us anyway.

  • gsavli

    In my opinion, expenses and efficiency – wise, somewhere in between is best, some of national health care scheme and some private (with private insurance companies).

    All free and nationally controled with a state-owned insurance companies leads to poorer standards of care (there is no competition and the money comes anyway), longer waiting times for a procedure (everyone wants it, beacuse it is free of charge) and it is far from being immune to corruption. Our former CEO of national, state owned health insurance company (the only health insurance company in the country, plus, insurance is obligatory – money is coming in regularly), had a nickname “mister ten percent”.

    Our national health care system is totally the opposite of US (all national and free, with obligatory insurance, paid by only those who work and have some source of income, which on average (the insurance that is), costs around 110 EUR/month per citizen, which covers for everything and everyone) and is a little bit falling appart right now, because it is too cheap, too available to anyone and that is not good either.

    Radiology dept. is tipically one of the money makers for the hospital and still, there is absolutely no comparison to the US prices. For example – a cardiac MRI *starts* at 8000 USD at St. Luke’s Hospital in Houston, whereas we will do it for somewhere around 380 USD (I am a radiologist and MR machine and other equipment, contrast and other material costs the same here as in the US).

    The system is falling appart though, people are used to not paying, the average cost of a total insurance is 110 EUR/citizen/month (paid by only those who work, which are encumbered tipically with a cost of 400+ EUR for health insurance – solidarity and all…) and it is not nearly enough to cover all the needs.

    My guess is – a health care system that is somewhere in between, some national scheme, some private, works best. Incidentally, that is what Australia has and I totally believe Scott, they have an excellent health care there.

  • amokta

    Yes im sure things can be tweaked to avoid imbalances, in UK govt has target for waiting times, etc which govt hospitals have to meet, and get fixed money (internal market) per procedure,etc. Ultimately, if the politicians keep promising beyond what can be funded, then thats wheresome problem lies – rationing healthcare (i.e. saying we can only do so many ops, or our priority is young) doesnt win votes – thats why politicians want to privatise everything, so they then dont have the political ‘liability’ of actually being ‘responsible’ for anything

  • Joe_Jones

    currencies’ on the move 🙂

  • convictscott

    Classic jpy behaviour. Increase in volatility comes in, paints a retest variation sell at the upper bollinger… then wham!

  • convictscott

    Classic jpy behaviour. Increase in volatility comes in, paints a retest variation sell at the upper bollinger… then wham!

  • Th3_Acist

    Was waiting patiently for it!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    USD/CAD – heads up, tight range.

    http://s2.postimg.org/8opzx1pvd/temp1.png

  • convictscott

    I love it when a plan comes together!

  • Th3_Acist

    Now pass the cigar! …and cue the music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MVonyVSQoM

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll make sure the new code catches this one.

  • convictscott

    For anyone interested it is likely the next USDJPY 30 min candle will paint a retest variation sell, with trend, after a weakening bounce, at support. Nice looking trade (wait 20 mins for the candle rollover)

  • convictscott

    cancel that it broke up through support

  • convictscott

    And how is my bias not even noticing it was a retest variation buy! Shameful

  • newbfxtrader

    lol enjoying the charts. thx.

  • gsavli

    “Ultimately, if the politicians keep promising beyond what can be funded”.

    And this is the core of the problem with any national health care. Politicians like to promise a lot and then cause frustration, when their promises can’t be fulfilled by “some lazy mofo third parties”. Ok, i am biased, since in my country, that is exactly, what is happening – politicians give promises, and then doctors are to blame, when those promises are not kept. Instead of rethinking the situation, adjusting and correcting, this game goes on and on and frustration among people (patients) only bulids up.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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