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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleJune 27, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

No major drama overnight, the spoos keep clinging to that 25-hour lifeline which is now slowly driving the tape higher. Good inflection point right now before the open as we’ve got a cluster of NLSLs terminating near 1596 – I would be short below that and long above 1599.

The Euro has been strengthening except against the Dollar and that is interesting – here’s the DX which is also riding its 25-hour higher. There is additional support below at the 100-hour SMA should we see it slip lower.

EUR/JPY on the other hand has been running higher and we have now a nice v-formation that is now facing its 100-hour SMA and the NLBL at 128.035. Good spot to get positioned.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • DarthTrader

    As I posted yesterday ” I’m seeing a strong confluence at the 1602-3 area on the /ES which is 38.2% of the sell off from May
    highs, 161.8% of the ABC up from the lows and 100% of the ABC started Early Tues morning all pointing to same area. ”

    Let me add the 200 hour MA at 1603.25 to that list of important numbers coming through here.

    Market just hit the 1604 area and pulled back to 1603 . . . I’ll repeat what I said a few day ago it is usually positive for a trend if market closes right below important price levels or resistance. Then it has overnite to “Build Cause” to blow on through said “resistance” We will see what happens today . . .

    AS Shwerepunkt said it is now waiting on the Employment Numbers in 20 minutes

  • Dyellowflash

    Mkt gapping everyday this week? Yeah – about 15 points of gapping everyday. Mon down, Tue-Thur up.

  • Skynard

    Dallar will take heat right quick, bear flag 5 min.

  • saltwaterdog

    technically the ID setup on NG was triggered, barely, overnight… Inventory Vol Bomb in 45min

  • Skynard

    Short?

  • saltwaterdog

    triggered long, but without that I like the shortside to 3.50 NGQ

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Total flatline on the Zero Lite – let’s be careful…

  • Skynard

    Problem with the long side it is below the daily ma’s and without any support.

  • Skynard

    AUD 93 next stop:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    But $TICK is crazy strong.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Must be a Trend Day looking at $TICK . . .

  • saltwaterdog

    I recd the TDA on time today… High Prob UP

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted at the 2nd mole’s arrow. Not sure if my second pre-order short will be filled.

  • Skynard

    Took profit 62 /NG

  • saltwaterdog

    You’ve got a nice batting avg on Thursdays in this one

  • Skynard

    That is the key, you must do what the chart says not what you think it says.

  • saltwaterdog

    I’ll admit, if it’s not clear already, that I was stopped into a long on the new high (vs yest high), o/n, which is almost impossible to find on the chart. Dumped it over an hour ago, so avoided the carnage, but also ignored the rule of the trade (to close below yest low)… the ID setups seem to often be better in the 2nd direction

  • bravenewworld2011

    SPX now reaching a cluster of the 25D, 100H, and a NLBL. Will it turn resistance into support?

  • Skynard

    Do not see it, ZL is bullish. Although it would seem a good day for a div to play out.

  • Skynard

    FU again, this is an issue with me. Taking profit to FN early:(

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Or will the little blue arrow turn to gold once again?

  • Skynard

    Shorting opp comes tomorrow:)

  • Dyellowflash

    Its a tactical trade – Gap up 3 days in a row, made a higher high with weak candles but decent vol (and zl), powerful opening ticks. IMO, a reversal from a correction should look pathetic, not the powerful moves we see at the hourly.

  • Skynard

    The hourly is setting up another div, may take another day or 2.

  • Dyellowflash

    Thanks for the heads-up. U r good with the zl man! My 2 cents worth wrt arrows is when the arrows show up and if they dont get KO, then the move that they point to will have a “window of protection”. I just need to get out b4 this window expires if the direction is contrasted by zl later on – then i will clear out and flip.

  • Dyellowflash

    Hey mole, is the zero down? I saw the same candle being the same for the past 15m thereabout… ?

  • Skynard

    AUD has consistently been retesting, begining to get frustraded with this trade. That tells me the time is very near now:)

  • Pervergence

    Was thinking GC would be below where it is now with ol’ bucky rocking the real world….

  • Skynard

    Long the /ES from the signal line entry.

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed all YM shorts except for 1 tracker with stops at today’s high+

  • Skynard

    Do not day trade without it, that would be suicidal:)

  • Skynard

    /DX should make for a very nice shooting star today. If lower BB/gap support does not hold will flip /ES.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    O-ooh – emotions…

  • Skynard

    Sometimes that does happen, trying very hard to ignore them. This is the most difficult part of this profession.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I switched the Zero indicator to a new VPS today and although it seems to be working fine I received one report that the upload feed may have been down for about 20 minutes. Have any of you experienced the same issue? If so please let me know right away. It's important that I have full confidence in the new VPS before I let the old one go.

  • Skynard

    Seems to be working fine, only difference is the screen size was reduced.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Screen size is supposed to be the same. Enclosed a recent screen grab – do you see anything else?

  • VoicesV

    First attack to breach SPX 1620 fails….. Bears need a Close below 1602 to stand a chance…otherwise the weekly chart is gonna bring some pain….

    http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/8633/tduc.png

  • Skynard

    Remaining long

  • Pervergence

    Hard to go against the TD indicator imo

  • ds2

    Looks fine to me.

  • Skynard

    No, looks fine. Not sure about the screen size, it seemed to be square when to other was rectangle shape.

  • Pervergence

    pull back in the bucky….ho hum from GC….interesting

  • Skynard

    Agree, did not want to short untill the gap.

  • SS_JJ

    Correlation between those two hasn’t been so great in the last few weeks

  • Pervergence

    Where do you all see support in the metals? I mean I see a few spots but it looks like thin air…except for fib levels I guess.

  • momac

    sugar back at 17, weekly nl

  • wandering196

    It is working fine for me right now

  • AmazingLarry

    Next area down of major vol congestion is 1140 on my chart. Lines almost perfectly with the 08 bottom to 2011 top 61.8 down. Silver has done it, miners have done it, gold’s turn?

  • Pervergence

    Here we go….another leg down

  • AmazingLarry

    The crazy speculator story-telling machine in my mind tells me they take gold down while holding the dollar in check and they both rise together as the Euro and Jen crumble. It’s a flight to safety-quality package for the world economy. Nice, eh? 😀

  • Skynard

    It getting down right Evil now!

  • Pervergence

    Do we really want to bail out Japan AND europe…..whew….order more printers

  • Pervergence

    I expected a little more BB constriction before another whacking….amazing

  • AmazingLarry

    Printing didn’t work and won’t work. Bankers demand austerity. They’re hunting down capital in every nook and cranny everywhere. Europe is leading the way. Rates will rise with the dollar. It’s going to be a mega shit show in the US. That’s the only thing they’ve been able to manufacture.

    Back to work. Still short gold. Moved my stop down a bit.

  • Skynard

    Hourly showing 5th wave up to fill this gap. Very powerful wave structure!

  • Darkthirty

    Where’s the gap?

  • AmazingLarry

    I have 7 daily closes outside the lower 20 BB including today below 1225.10. Eight would be a would be a record, I’ve never seen anything go 8 days. I’m looking to flip long on an hourly Mole signal like a NLBL.

  • Skynard

    SPX 1629

  • VoicesV

    No way….1620 is the limit of the week. Think retest of 1600 is next possibly 1582-84….

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sub-1200 GC!!!!!!

  • VoicesV

    1614 & 1620 SPx are the most important levels right now

  • Skynard

    5 min already broke the wedge, going higher after VWAP test. Full long

  • tradingmom

    RTV sell setting up on hourly, yes?

  • Skynard

    Limit up? Since when? Since when has Wallstreet played by the rules?If that is the case we should all be long:)

  • Pervergence

    Amazing

  • Skynard

    Triagle 4th carving out, up we go:)

  • VoicesV

    I know my friend… But first we gotta shake out the weak hands…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Weak hands? That would be the bears:)