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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleSeptember 19, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Not a short term setup but something I wanted to throw on your daily watch list for today and possibly tomorrow: Gold is budding against its 25-day SMA and a NLBL – at the same time it is testing its just a few ticks away from a falling 25-week SMA. So this could be good – the idea here is a long on a breach higher with a stop below the 100-day SMA (which is just a few ticks below the 25-day). Until that happens you can entertain short positions with little risk (i.e. a stop at our long entry trigger).

Silver also not looking so shabby as it’s kissing its 25-day SMA and a NLBL at 23.25 – I’m short here with a stop above the NLBL which however is also my long trigger.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • AcoBrasil

    Looking at a 3 year chart, I can’t find another instance where the $USD snapped this far outside of its lower Bollinger Band.

  • AcoBrasil

    Just took the Silver short.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And upsidaisy we go…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Crush to upside on Full Moon.
    Yesterday was an amazing case of panic buying. Somebody will write a book about these years, make some kind of sense of all this.

    To hell with ‘historical levels’ and ‘economic imbalances’
    I just fight the turns in a simplest terms possible.
    My account was up 2.5% yesterday – the biggest one day gain since I started running this portfolio, based on “Principals of Molecool”.

    Thank You

  • Ronebadger

    yeah…. “make sense of all this”…. uh huh…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    hehehe – what I was thinking…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – everyone wants our currency to be worthless. Interesting civilization we’ve build ourselves…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – everyone wants our currency to be worthless. Interesting civilization we’ve build ourselves…

  • AcoBrasil

    The only countries fighting to strengthen their currency right now seem to be Brazil (ironically enough) and India.

    The point I was trying to make with the cavernous $USD BB break is that an upside reversal seems imminent. I like to apply the step one of your $VIX buy and sell rules to other situations also to time entries.

    Thanks for the tip on Silver 🙂

  • AcoBrasil

    I know there aren’t many ZH fans here, but they cited some very interesting Fed analysis from DB this morning. When markets perceive that a country’s central bank is acting in a wishy-washy fashion, all hell tends to break loose. That’s what happened recently in Brazil when multiple interest rate increases (following a year of falling rates in the face of unacceptably high inflation) failed to stem a massive drop in the BRL.

    “Another theme arising from their decision to hold fire was their worry that financial conditions had tightened over the past few weeks. If this is the case then the path of tapering is going to be tough because every time the market thinks they are going to taper, yields will likely rise and conditions will tighten. However the Fed’s guidance is becoming confused enough now that you couldn’t rule out another change of emphasis, especially as the composition of the Fed will change notably over the next few months. So markets are underpinned by liquidity for now but it’s a fluid situation and it strikes me that the Fed do not have a clear direction at the moment which makes them difficult to second guess.”

  • AmazingLarry

    Was just looking at 23.23 as a LT inflection point for /SI on the weekly but now on a few levels things are lining up. The old Larry used to try rationalize which setup made the most sense. The new Larry doesn’t care, gives no weight to plausibility, etc … only bets on the rubicon and remains ready to move. Wonder who drilled this into my head…..;)

  • AmazingLarry

    ZH does do ‘very interesting analysis’ and that’s the problem. It’s mind pollution. It’s where psychiatric issues of mind ferment into account losses.

  • ridingwaves

    The real issue is these so called Temporary emergency actions by the fed are now standard Central bank thinking and action…is the emergency of global downward spiral still here?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    “Principals of Molecool”
    Like it? You are welcome to use it (the phrase i mean)

  • AcoBrasil

    Its Deutch Bank’s analysis cited by ZH

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ‘mind pollution’ – that was awesome 🙂

  • strider

    soybeans bouncing off 1341.25

  • ridingwaves

    Currently L corn mini…higher low yesterday and seasonality factored in equation..Ben B helped with decision too…

  • Dyellowflash

    Boring day. Probably taking a long shot on YM 15641 against the good advice of the zl for now – I will have to assume possible downtrend day if it goes below my entry price…

  • BobbyLow

    Just missed my stop yesterday afternoon on Short Oil via SCO. Thought for sure I would be flipping to Long by 10:00 AM Today. However the 9:00 AM (Beginning of Open Outcry and Volume) Hourly Candle on /CL at least temporarily rejected higher prices soundly. Following it closely and will flip if necessary but for now still holding short.

  • Pervergence

    IP s /GC 30 min

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You make it sound exciting – about to dose off. But a sideways churn is usually to be expected after that wild punch higher yesterday.

  • Pervergence

    Good trade :)…..keeps plowing lower

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I’m watching it on a couple of different time frames so we’ll see how it turns out. Between 2:00 PM and 2:30 PM is where it could be a real tell. That is if it makes it that far. 🙂

  • Sean

    What a mess… no thank you…

  • Dyellowflash

    Its… actually quite fun… for a point in time, I was considering flapping to the short side but the last 15m candle becomes a hammer instead of a red bar at the last 2mins and looks like if this next bar manages to overtake my entry price, I will stay with my long biased – at least until eow.

  • Pervergence

    IVAN…..are there any statistical advantages to certain entries??……all certainly can’t be created equal….thanks in advance

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you want that level of information I have two suggestions:

    1. Go out and test the setups yourself. That’s what Ivan did.
    2. Hire Ivan and pay him for his time.

    You can’t expect him to spoon feed you valuable details that he has earned the hard way over decades.

  • Pervergence

    Indeed….knowledge is something to be hoarded…..
    Out of the IPs for 1R
    Benevolency only goes so far I guess…..just don’t ask me any training tips….wouldn’t want to share anything I’ve learned over the years….. money money money.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    You can publish it in the open…
    and nobody will read it….
    even if they read it…
    they will not believe it…
    then they see it working…
    and they start to play it…
    but it is too late…
    and they lose again…

  • Pervergence

    I know Fearless always asks for a payment every time he shares his statistical analyses…..not…..
    Next Fearless post…..please click PAYPAL button to access this post……lol

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Banned.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    For the second time in three years I may add…

  • Pervergence

    Yeah……bullshit….I’ve never been banned you fucking liar

  • convictscott

    Damn straight! Ivan is incredibly generous with his knowledge and no matter what he gives people want more.

    Having known Ivan for a long time I know he is happy to *share*. If you want stats from Ivan, pull out the paper and pen and create some stats that he will find useful and contribute to the overall knowledge level.

    For example one of my next backtesting tasks is going to be backtesting IP’s in with trend direction at moving average supports. This is not a technically difficult thing to do, all you need is pen and paper.

  • convictscott

    You used to post here as Tronacate. Now take your bad manners, fuck back off to the slope and blow your shitty account up there.

  • Tronacate

    NEVER ever been banned…..why do you make up such bullshit.??? I was here during the wave and Geronimo pump……