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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleDecember 5, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

At the danger of pointing out the blatantly obvious: The tape in equities turned into a royal mess during yesterday’s mad monk rollercoaster and from a charting perspective I’m a bit in limbo here. Not much to hang our hats on at least from a short term perspective. So let’s just cover what we know and stick with that.

  1. The bulls and bears seem to be in equilibrium right now and neither side has been able to make much progress.
  2. However we are still officially in a long term up trend, so the onus is on the bears to pull the tape below important inflection points. Thus far they have been unable to do so as daily support remains intact.
  3. The 25-hour SMA appears to be observed across the equities front – above you see the spoos which is still clinging to it. This gives us something to work with as I believe the battle is being fought here.

We observe the same pattern on the NQ – first the 25-hour served as resistance – until yesterday when some wild gyrations mixed things up. Since then the 25-hour appears to be acting as support and the recently more bullish NQ even managed to push above its 100-hour as of now.

The TF (and YM – not shown today) are basically in the same boat. Except here the 25-hour continues to act as resistance – but it’s managed to stay close. Not to be biased to the bullish side but it is the bears who have to show some claws here, especially with daily support still waiting below.

Respective Daily Support Levels

  • On the YM incidentally that remains to be the 25-day SMA – currently at 15,856.
  • The NQ has its NLSL at 3,468.75 – was breached yesterday but we comfortably closed above it.
  • The ES continues to hold its 25-day pointing currently at 1783.50.
  • And the TF has its 25-day at 1113.3 but there’s also a diagonal which has now climbed to around 1118 – give or take a handle. Right now we are still above it.
This ought to give us enough to assess where we’re heading. If we see three out of four fall below their daily support levels then it’s reasonable to assume that we’re going to continue downward. Now play each index on its own merit but when it comes to deciding whether or not to ride it out lower (or higher) take this into consideration.

Traps And Tribulations

 

Quite a few whipsaw candidates on our event schedule today – be cautious around 8:30am EST if you’re trading the EUR or the USD.

Setups – I’ve got some very nice goodies today, especially on the Forex side:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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