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Thursday Morning Briefing
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Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleApril 10, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Our NQ campaign on the daily was stopped out overnight as our 1R stop was touched. But things are looking interesting on the short term panel:

It’s testing the 25-hour again which as of late has provided support. I would be long again above that previously breached NLSL – trigger above 3,599.5. Put your stop a healthy distance below that 25-hour SMA.

Crude also looking good near dual support – I want to be long here and my stop is below 103.25.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • captainboom

    Nice visual for the R levels on that /NQ chart. Something you coded, or manually entered?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nah – I just use a hacked fibonacci sequence – got sick of sitting there with a calculator šŸ™‚

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Miss the Days of 300?
    My gawd. You may have tagged Scott’s appendix, but I think he tagged your brain.

    šŸ˜‰

    pair up, and prepare for the next wave.
    http://www.shadowrat.com/rats/den1.jpg

  • captainboom

    Very nice, and a great idea. This is why I show up every day, to pick up gems.

  • RacerXX

    Evil nuggets

  • buysidetrader

    oh boy SPX rally showed divergence on the hourly ZL

  • Objectively_Bias

    $TICK still at overbought levels and $TRIN not even close to bearish extremes. Next stop 1844, All Aboard!

  • wandering196

    Put my order in for EUR.CAD from this post https://evilspeculator.com/?p=41245 a few days ago. Triggered last night and we are away.

  • wandering196

    Interesting arrow showing up, see if it holds
    OK didn’t hold

  • newbfxtrader

    nothing bullish about the zero today.

  • wandering196

    It wasn’t bullish What a day!

  • newbfxtrader

    I still say /NKD is better short. Have been saying that for months now. Dont know what the fascination with /ES is.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Beyond where is the market going, setups and campaign management:

    In stark contrast to the words expressed by a frequent contributor here recently … “I am hoping that you are posting so this community can help refine and improve your lens… otherwise, what’s the point?” … my belief is that those who have managed to survive and thrive in the business of risk-taking, aka trading, do have an obligation / responsibility to contribute, and perhaps even assist others, by way of sharing some insights gained along the way.

    I shared quite a while ago, without engaging more than just one comment (by M), my concept of trading the Equity Curve … this, by definition, involves having a RBT … in other words a rigid set of trading rules that are applied in a structured and consistent manner … as opposed to guidelines and non 110% pure black and white rules.

    The Equity Curve (EqC) reveals so much about a trading approach that it is almost sacrosanct to ignore … and actually not work with / on … stats, stats and more stats … all without needing a maths major to understand or apply … your EqC, especially in conjunction with a price chart, will reveal whether your approach is trend-following in nature … or relies more on picking turning points … or revels in what I call a Bad Cop phase (and yes I, and my students, do have a black and white definition) … it also reveals far more … it can highlight the concept of ‘dependency’ … this is a concept that we all can relate to in real life … when you are on a roll the roll tends to continue … both in the positive direction, as well as in the other than positive direction … this is akin to a market ‘trend’ continuing in the direction of the market trend … until it is overcome by a greater energy, or force.

    In the context of trading, dependency looks at whether a win is more likely than not be followed by another win … ditto is a loss more likely to be followed by another loss, or a win … this concept is totally unacceptable to those who espouse and hold true the Random Walk hypothesis regarding the markets ( life, the Universe and all in between) … each to their own … this concept can go even further … some of you may recall that part of the stats that look at is clusters of wins and also clusters of losses … certainly not part of the mainstream of ‘pertinent’ stats..

    If / when you can establish a degree of dependency between outcomes of your RBT, then the next step is quite simple and straightforward … it can even be done without Excel (or the Open Office equivalent) … just a pencil and paper and an eye for detail is all that is needed.

    The charts below (produced by a student) illustrate a ‘before’ and ‘after’ EqC of one of his RBTs based on my setups and campaign management concepts … it is neither the best nor the worst RBT for that sample … it has been said (by a former student) that the improvement trading the EqC is ‘remarkable’ … yet this was an approach that the same student initially rejected completely … only a truly open mind can see what is to be seen!

    PS. This is a concept that I feature on the home page of my website … those (few) who have taken the step to avail themselves to exploring this have not been disappointed!

    PPS. There are a number of different ways to play the Equity Curve … once you have one based on a RBT.

  • wandering196

    at or over the precipace

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, I just finished implementing this into CrazyIvan after you brought this up. Thanks so much for pointing Scott in the right direction. Once I looked at it I coded day and night to get it done. The difference is rather stark and apparently the EC filter works extremely well for CrazyIvan as there is high dependency.

    I think the majority of the people who come here only intend to take something away. They don’t participate and they don’t share much except for a lonely chart here and there – and even then it’s to gather support/approval for their own POV. This community could be so much more if there were more folks like you who are willing to share and collaborate.

    Anyway, thanks for all you do.

  • wandering196

    Am short CADJPY based on that terrible chart I posted the other day

  • wandering196

    Am short CADJPY based on that terrible chart I posted the other day

  • Bifrost

    Mole… congrats on the CI progress, that’s exciting. If I recall correctly (not a sub and relatively new), CI is 6 markets, two of them futures mkts? Any plans to disclose the stats beyond R, either for the entire CI program, or even better, for each market?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    In the context of sharing (and perhaps getting more people on board) why not provide detailed, simple stats of CI?

  • Bifrost

    Is there an echo in here haha

  • Bifrost

    Is there an echo in here haha

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Textbook AA material.

  • Bifrost

    AA? is that part of your Crazy Ivan program?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    CI is not ‘my’ programme … from memory, as expressed by M and CS … it is “a simplified subset” of what I taught CS about 12 years ago … which M has coded up … and is now selling.

  • newbfxtrader

    Agressive ambush I think! he has colorful names for his setups.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Accurate also … as in totally, clearly descriptive of what happens.

  • Bifrost

    Got it, apologies for the assumption. No wonder he’s thanking you then! That sounds like an “Aggressive Ambush” of a different kind!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The stats are in the results page mate! All there under the CI menu.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We have them for each instrument but the summary page suffices IMO. Look under the menu.